Tomas Hirst
@tomashirstecon.bsky.social
Strategy & Asset Allocation. Queasy metropolitan liberal. “Economist” -
@t0nyyates
@t0nyyates
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Tomas Hirst
@tomashirstecon.bsky.social
· Nov 10
Hello new Bluesky-ers! Guess I should do one of these awkward introductory posts - work in asset allocation but mostly here for finance, economics, social policy and politics (though the last almost exclusively through a policy lens). Frequently snarky, but aspiring to avoid cantankerousness.
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
Terrific piece on what is happening *right now* when PE-backed US life insurers run into trouble.
I've spoken with policyholders who are fearing life-changing losses.
www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
When Wall Street’s Insurance Playbook Goes Wrong
Almost a decade after a private equity firm began reshaping a struggling life insurer, authorities are grappling with a $2.2 billion shortfall. Policyholders fear life-changing losses.
www.bloomberg.com
November 18, 2025 at 8:21 PM
Terrific piece on what is happening *right now* when PE-backed US life insurers run into trouble.
Just vomited a little
November 18, 2025 at 10:55 PM
Just vomited a little
This is so embarrassing to listen to. Imagine this guy being the intellectual force behind a movement. Can barely even construct a coherent sentence, let alone a worldview. And, somehow, the substance is even worse than the presentation.
See also Curtis Yarvin's remarks in a recent Oxford lecture:
"Say what you want about MBS, he's quite an effective king I think in a lot of different ways. Um love the Ritz thing, the whole Saudi embassy thing, I don't know, but I mean he was a journalist". [Giggles]
www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXYl...
"Say what you want about MBS, he's quite an effective king I think in a lot of different ways. Um love the Ritz thing, the whole Saudi embassy thing, I don't know, but I mean he was a journalist". [Giggles]
www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXYl...
November 18, 2025 at 10:41 PM
This is so embarrassing to listen to. Imagine this guy being the intellectual force behind a movement. Can barely even construct a coherent sentence, let alone a worldview. And, somehow, the substance is even worse than the presentation.
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
Ex ante exactly what you’d expect. Efficient markets ftw!
November 18, 2025 at 7:02 PM
Ex ante exactly what you’d expect. Efficient markets ftw!
Absolutely howling at the idea of the government telling ministers not to brief friendly media on proposed budget measures to test sentiment. Have to imagine they literally did it with a wink.
Keir Starmer has warned senior ministers & officials to stop briefing against one another & leaking details of budget
PM told cabinet last week’s political turmoil distracted from voters’ priorities & they shld focus on delivery not navel gazing 👇
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
PM told cabinet last week’s political turmoil distracted from voters’ priorities & they shld focus on delivery not navel gazing 👇
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Starmer pleads for government to unite in fightback after difficult week
Prime minister tells cabinet budget leaks and infighting are distracting from priorities and delivering change
www.theguardian.com
November 18, 2025 at 5:27 PM
Absolutely howling at the idea of the government telling ministers not to brief friendly media on proposed budget measures to test sentiment. Have to imagine they literally did it with a wink.
If your project is building a vision of shared sacrifice to rebuild the public sphere this…is not it.
One to bookmark. His presence on social media seems all a bit leaden.
November 18, 2025 at 5:21 PM
If your project is building a vision of shared sacrifice to rebuild the public sphere this…is not it.
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
There is abundant evidence in the social science literature that (a) social norms matter (b) political elites play an important role in setting and reinforcing social norms (c) that 'unexpected' rhetoric behaviour (e.g. centre left sounding intolerant) has more powerful corrosive effect on norms.
November 18, 2025 at 10:28 AM
There is abundant evidence in the social science literature that (a) social norms matter (b) political elites play an important role in setting and reinforcing social norms (c) that 'unexpected' rhetoric behaviour (e.g. centre left sounding intolerant) has more powerful corrosive effect on norms.
The fundamental point @stephenkb.bsky.social makes about the proposed asylum policy changes is exactly right - the government is baking “legitimate concerns” rhetoric into action in a way that permissions racist/xenophobic rhetoric while claiming to blunt it. And, worse, I think many know this.
November 18, 2025 at 10:22 AM
The fundamental point @stephenkb.bsky.social makes about the proposed asylum policy changes is exactly right - the government is baking “legitimate concerns” rhetoric into action in a way that permissions racist/xenophobic rhetoric while claiming to blunt it. And, worse, I think many know this.
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
Labour’s “we have to do it, or racism will get worse” argument is striking. Any other public policy failures British ethnic minorities should be on the hook for? Can we be blamed en bloc for Rachel Reeves’ budget next week too? www.ft.com/content/37b0...
Defence of Labour asylum policy reveals backsliding on racism
Home secretary’s framing of failures is partly low politics, but also a result of ministers’ poor approach to race relations
www.ft.com
November 18, 2025 at 10:08 AM
Labour’s “we have to do it, or racism will get worse” argument is striking. Any other public policy failures British ethnic minorities should be on the hook for? Can we be blamed en bloc for Rachel Reeves’ budget next week too? www.ft.com/content/37b0...
I’m going to have to do a thread on bond supply gluts, CDS, dealer balance sheets and basis trading aren’t I?
November 17, 2025 at 11:07 PM
I’m going to have to do a thread on bond supply gluts, CDS, dealer balance sheets and basis trading aren’t I?
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
The rise of memestocks, crypto, NFTs are symbolic of something important happening in markets - writ large - that is, I think, distinct from the kind of greed-driven euphoria that lead to previous market bubbles.
June 28, 2025 at 10:00 AM
The rise of memestocks, crypto, NFTs are symbolic of something important happening in markets - writ large - that is, I think, distinct from the kind of greed-driven euphoria that lead to previous market bubbles.
"We've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas" in the wild
I'm afraid to say that large parts of the soft left are just *like this*
I feel like I'm getting flashbacks to the Miliband campaign in 2015
I feel like I'm getting flashbacks to the Miliband campaign in 2015
November 17, 2025 at 1:44 PM
"We've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas" in the wild
Incidentally, the degree of dysfunction at the top of government hasn't really changed my view on the medium-term attractiveness of gilts but now mostly because the growth engine will likely never get started.
Morgan Stanley reckons Bank of England will cut interest rates to 2.75% by mid-2026 (from 4% now), reflecting weakening fiscal momentum behind the economy.
November 17, 2025 at 12:04 PM
Incidentally, the degree of dysfunction at the top of government hasn't really changed my view on the medium-term attractiveness of gilts but now mostly because the growth engine will likely never get started.
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
We should stop the boats because it's dangerous, and we should stop the scapegoating of immigrants because it's wrong and cruel.
Controlled migration is good for the country, helps build our economy and diversity strengthens our communities. (1/6) 🧵
Controlled migration is good for the country, helps build our economy and diversity strengthens our communities. (1/6) 🧵
November 17, 2025 at 11:03 AM
We should stop the boats because it's dangerous, and we should stop the scapegoating of immigrants because it's wrong and cruel.
Controlled migration is good for the country, helps build our economy and diversity strengthens our communities. (1/6) 🧵
Controlled migration is good for the country, helps build our economy and diversity strengthens our communities. (1/6) 🧵
Honestly, the potential case for getting rid of Starmer before was the lack of any political project and absence of charisma. But now No.10 is creating a moral imperative for the PLP to act as well.
November 17, 2025 at 11:23 AM
Honestly, the potential case for getting rid of Starmer before was the lack of any political project and absence of charisma. But now No.10 is creating a moral imperative for the PLP to act as well.
No.10: “Ok, so we borked the budget messaging and created a mini bond market panic. How about we try distracting people by trial-ballooning confiscating jewellery from asylum seekers?”
Seriously, who is the imagined audience for all of this?
Seriously, who is the imagined audience for all of this?
November 17, 2025 at 10:59 AM
No.10: “Ok, so we borked the budget messaging and created a mini bond market panic. How about we try distracting people by trial-ballooning confiscating jewellery from asylum seekers?”
Seriously, who is the imagined audience for all of this?
Seriously, who is the imagined audience for all of this?
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
New essay out today by me and @acjsissons.bsky.social - ‘Getting Britain out of the hole: a plan for the economy’. You can read the whole thing here getting-out-of-the-hole.uk
A chart mega-thread follows 🧵
A chart mega-thread follows 🧵
Getting Britain out of the hole
A plan for the UK economy
getting-out-of-the-hole.uk
November 17, 2025 at 8:00 AM
New essay out today by me and @acjsissons.bsky.social - ‘Getting Britain out of the hole: a plan for the economy’. You can read the whole thing here getting-out-of-the-hole.uk
A chart mega-thread follows 🧵
A chart mega-thread follows 🧵
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
New Substack: chrisdillow.substack.com/p/on-incompe... Parts of the Labour party and BBC simply don't know what their jobs should be.
On incompetence
Much of our political culture is fundamentally incompetent.
chrisdillow.substack.com
November 15, 2025 at 10:47 AM
New Substack: chrisdillow.substack.com/p/on-incompe... Parts of the Labour party and BBC simply don't know what their jobs should be.
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
September jobs day will be Nov 20
Revised news release dates following the 2025 lapse in appropriations
Revised news release dates following the 2025 lapse in appropriations
www.bls.gov
November 14, 2025 at 8:07 PM
September jobs day will be Nov 20
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
The impact of this on mortgage rates would’ve given the housing market and housebuilding a boost heading into the new year.
November 14, 2025 at 6:51 PM
The impact of this on mortgage rates would’ve given the housing market and housebuilding a boost heading into the new year.
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
It's true. If Labour raise income taxes, the party might slump to around a quarter of the vote, and its PM and Chancellor might be even more unpopular than Rishi Sunak in 2024 or Jeremy Corbyn in 2019 - wait, sorry, just got an email from Ipsos with some new polling, I'm sure it's nothing important.
Quite a contrast to the BlueSky consensus the last 24 hours
Do you think the government was right or wrong to decide not to raise income tax at the Budget?
Right: 58%
Wrong: 21%
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
Right: 58%
Wrong: 21%
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
November 14, 2025 at 5:28 PM
It's true. If Labour raise income taxes, the party might slump to around a quarter of the vote, and its PM and Chancellor might be even more unpopular than Rishi Sunak in 2024 or Jeremy Corbyn in 2019 - wait, sorry, just got an email from Ipsos with some new polling, I'm sure it's nothing important.
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
"[T]he [dividing] lines it is drawing are not challenges it can meet in reality,...the campaigns it is running are against its own, & that far from providing the government with...direction, all it does is accelerate the demise of a directionless & paranoid administration" @stephenkb.bsky.social
Brain-dead Labour retreats to its comfort zone: campaigning
Downing Street’s bizarre war on itself is a symptom of a government whose ideas dissolve on contact with reality
www.ft.com
November 14, 2025 at 1:04 PM
"[T]he [dividing] lines it is drawing are not challenges it can meet in reality,...the campaigns it is running are against its own, & that far from providing the government with...direction, all it does is accelerate the demise of a directionless & paranoid administration" @stephenkb.bsky.social