Toby Nangle
@tobyn.bsky.social
13K followers 490 following 2.6K posts
FT Alphaville reporter. Ex-“veteran” fund manager. Resolution Foundation Assoc. Baring Foundation Trustee.
Posts Media Videos Starter Packs
tobyn.bsky.social
Just looked up Anthony Michael Hall, and it's not that he's aged badly, but no way I would've recognised him.
Anthony Michael Hall in 1985 Breakfast Club, and in 2024.
tobyn.bsky.social
I learnt a lot reading these 750 easy-to-digest expertly-written words on why these guys won their Nobel prize.
Reposted by Toby Nangle
janinegibson.ft.com
It’s kicking off in the Economics live blog
robinwigglesworth.ft.com
And the winners are Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt! For "having explained innovation-driven economic growth”, in the words of the committee.
robinwigglesworth.ft.com
The Nobel Prize for economics is due to be announced soon, and Alphaville is running a live blog to mark the occasion. www.ft.com/content/f392...
tobyn.bsky.social
Had understood that it was common language, and people to tweet at when America is asleep.

So less that UK is woke, and more just that it's awake.
Reposted by Toby Nangle
mccrum.bsky.social
This isn’t funny. Judges only speak to the press when they’re in extreme distress
leahlitman.bsky.social
More judges speak to the press (the NYT) about what a disaster the Supreme Court (specifically the shadow docket) has been - “incredibly demoralizing & troubling”; a “judicial crisis”; a “slap in the face to district courts.” www.nytimes.com/2025/10/11/u...
Excerpts Excerpts
Reposted by Toby Nangle
katie0martin.ft.com
"Now, we know what you’re thinking: this is all very stupid and funny. And we agree."
Reposted by Toby Nangle
peark.es
Absolute banger of a blog post from Dallas Fed economist Anton Cheremukhin who estimates breakeven payrolls have fallen to *30k* thanks to rapid declines in population growth.
www.dallasfed.org/research/eco...
Chart showing estimates of US population growth at monthly frequencies from 2017-2025 from BLS, BEA/Census, CBO, and author's calculations Estimated monthly contributions to monthly breakeven payroll growth across population, changes in institutionalization/civilian status, and labor force participation 2017 - 2025 Estimated monthly breakeven payrolls rate from 2022-2025
Reposted by Toby Nangle
tobyn.bsky.social
Japan at the vanguard of so many (genuine) first world problems. Always worth following how it deals with them. on.ft.com/4oeQJ5O
Japan has an ‘enshortification’ problem
An ageing workforce is affecting all sorts of professions
on.ft.com
tobyn.bsky.social
Top 1% are members of the top 10%, so the lines shouldn’t be summed.
tobyn.bsky.social
Huuge gap between Mouth and Trousers, with the gap between mouth and trousers varying by trading partner.
tobyn.bsky.social
ie, back to Jane Austen world where wealth is '£x a year'.
tobyn.bsky.social
My recollection is that much of WAS wealth is PV of DB pensions, including unfunded public sector. Which makes bond yields matter a lot. (Happy to be corrected.)
tobyn.bsky.social
Given that the data comes from the WAS to 2022, and that much of wealth is bound up in estimates of pension wealth (where bond yields are important), will be fascinating to see the 2024 numbers post-bond market crash. Cld collapse elder-wealth?

RF estimate what these will do to the aggregate:
tobyn.bsky.social
More complex (but better) charts showing the role of active vs passive wealth changes. Sort of argues that the young earn & save to build wealth, but can't keep pace with wealth gains accruing passively to the old.
tobyn.bsky.social
Real wealth per adult around the same as it was 15yrs ago — unless you're a 55yo or older.

Chart suggests the bulk of passive wealth gains have accrued to the old.
The closer you get to being aged 60, the greater your wealth, on average.
tobyn.bsky.social
What is the *right* level of wealth inequality?

Am guessing this chart will serve as a Rorschach test.
Average per adult wealth in the UK, by wealth decile
tobyn.bsky.social
After 80yrs of declining wealth inequality, top 1% and top 10% wealth share in the UK has flatlined for the past 40yrs.

via @resfoundation.bsky.social www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
Blue line shows share of household wealth held by top 1%; red by top 10%.

The chart shows declining wealth inequality from 1900-1980 and a flatlining since then.