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njdavies.bsky.social
Nick Davies
@njdavies.bsky.social
8.8K followers 820 following 670 posts
Programme Director at @instituteforgovernment.org.uk working on public services
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njdavies.bsky.social
Nick Davies @njdavies.bsky.social · 9d
NEW: Labour inherited public services in crisis. Performance had fallen, investment had been cut + spending plans were undeliverable.

It's made some progress, providing stability and positive long-term plans. But it has been undermined by poor prep in opposition and lack of co-ordination in govt 🧵
RAG table showing ratings for 9 public services. It includes the following summaries for progress since the 2024 election: General practice - Progress on salaried GPs, but no steps taken to make partnership more attractive Hospitals - Government has set out high-level ambitions and reduced competing priorities, but no detail of implementation Adult social care - Largely ignored. Ending the care visa route without a workable solution for Fair Pay Agreements could cause workforce shortages Children's social care - Government has set out a clear and ambitious vision for reform and has backed it with relatively generous funding Homelessness - Early signs are encouraging, but government has yet to set out its homelessness strategy Schools - Government's plan to reduce inequalities in schools and tackle teacher shortages are unclear, and the crisis in SEND services casts a long shadow Police - Government has made limited progress in increasing neighbourhood officer numbers and has yet to announce details of planned reforms Criminal Courts - Increasing court sitting days was welcome, if done too late, but the government has yet to announce a longer-term plan Prisons - Rapid action addressed the immediate population crisis, but there has been limited progress towards a longer-term solution
Reposted by Nick Davies
stuarthoddinott.bsky.social
Agree with every word of this

We've gone from 9% of social care staff coming from outside the UK and EEA in 2021/22 to almost 25% in 2024/25

The govt has no near-term replacement

It means either:
1) staffing shortages or
2) councils spending far more to attract staff, with no extra funding
November 28, 2025 at 8:45 AM
njdavies.bsky.social
Pleased to see the govt commitment to using procurement to drive innovation. Procurement accounts for roughly 1 in 3 pounds spent by govt but it's utterly unstrategic about how it uses this

@drbenpaxton.bsky.social and I previously identified the barriers that the task-and-finish needs to remove
The government will leverage its procurement budgets to drive innovation. Each department will appoint a senior Procurement Innovation Champion, responsible for defining and delivering its innovation priorities through procurement. To accelerate access for strategically important innovative firms, the government will launch an Innovation Marketplace and establish a task-and-finish group to remove internal barriers to innovative procurement. Demonstrating a new approach, the government has launched an advance market commitment (AMC) to spur investment in clean concrete technologies, backed by Scottish Water, Ramboll, Derwent London, Atkins Realis UK, and Heathrow. Subject to due diligence, the government will launch another AMC, worth up to £100 million, for novel AI inference chips. Screenshot from IFG report: However, there are several barriers to effectively using public procurement to support the government’s missions and new ‘mission-led’ ways of working, including: • insufficient clarity about the government’s missions, which limits the public sector’s market shaping ability • pervasive aversion to risk and uncertainty • a lack of forward planning, which means there is often not enough time to explore how the market could provide new solutions • commercial professionals being brought into the policy process too late • procurements starting with over-specified solutions rather than outcomes • innovation often being initially available at a small scale • low quality of procurement data • insufficient senior commercial capacity and contract management capability • limited cross-government working between commercial professionals
November 27, 2025 at 8:53 AM
Reposted by Nick Davies
stuarthoddinott.bsky.social
Key chart for public services

Govt is back to pencilling in undeliverable plans to hit its fiscal rules

After taking out likely funding for protected areas, other departments will have to absorb 3.3% annual real terms cuts. That includes prisons, courts, and local govt, among others
November 26, 2025 at 3:59 PM
njdavies.bsky.social
Place-based budget pilots and changes to spending controls in the budget both reflect a growing recognition by this govt that trying to deliver efficiencies by tightly controlling spending and reducing frontline autonomy tends to have the exact opposite effect. That's a really positive shift
November 26, 2025 at 3:36 PM
njdavies.bsky.social
This is great news. Place-based budgeting could help to substantially reduce duplicative spending by different public bodies, allowing a greater focus on prevention and delivering much better outcomes

These (and other) pilots are really positive. Govt must use SR27 to make this way of working BAU
jydenham.bsky.social John Denham @jydenham.bsky.social · 1d
Really pleased to see a new commitment to place-based budgets today. Further progress towards the implementation of 'Total Place' principles as urged with @jesstud.bsky.social a couple of years ago. www.newlocal.org.uk/publications....
November 26, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Reposted by Nick Davies
jydenham.bsky.social
Really pleased to see a new commitment to place-based budgets today. Further progress towards the implementation of 'Total Place' principles as urged with @jesstud.bsky.social a couple of years ago. www.newlocal.org.uk/publications....
November 26, 2025 at 3:00 PM
njdavies.bsky.social
Proposed changes to spending controls are incredibly positive. As @instituteforgovernment.org.uk has previously noted, the cumulative complexity of controls muddies accountability, makes govt a worse customer, and wastes time and money. We asked govt to review and that's exactly what they've done
More governance can muddy accountability and reduce competition New policies and controls are typically introduced with good intentions – it is right that procurement decisions are properly scrutinised and reflect the changing priorities of the government. However, old policies and controls are often not scrapped when new ones are introduced, leading to layer upon layer of red tape – or, as one roundtable attendee put it, “terms and conditions on top of terms and conditions”. Governance alone, however, does not equal accountability. The cumulative complexity of controls and guidance can make lines of responsibility harder to trace, muddying the waters of accountability, as it can become less, not more, clear who is ultimately responsible for a decision (for example, the departmental commercial team leading a procurement or the central teams that have signed it off and set the guidance it complies with). Suppliers experience the proliferation of policies and controls through additional requirements in contracts. This can risk making the public sector a less attractive customer, putting off providers considering entering public sector markets and reducing market competition. Additional requirements at both tendering and contract management stages tend to impact SMEs, including charities and social enterprises, the greatest, since they usually have less capacity to meet them.
November 26, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Reposted by Nick Davies
resi-analyst.bsky.social
They've also got a big backlog of new homes to add.
bsky.app/profile/resi...
resi-analyst.bsky.social Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · Sep 26
Yet another UK data source that is not currently fit for purpose.

The VOA Council Tax stock of properties data is usually a great leading indicator for net additions and useful for local level housing stock detail but changes to their systems means there's a bigger backlog of new homes to be added.
resi-analyst.bsky.social Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · Sep 26
FYI there are bigger issues with the data than the lack of detailed breakdowns. I'm not convinced they should've published this data at this time given the issues.
builtplace.com/weekly-summa...
November 26, 2025 at 12:43 PM
njdavies.bsky.social
I’m excited ministers get to find out what a hot mess the Valuation Office is. It’s currently taking more than a year (based on personal experience!) to undertake assessments that are meant to take less than 4 months
November 26, 2025 at 12:37 PM
njdavies.bsky.social
The Public Services Performance Tracker is regularly described as ‘sobering’ but this is definitely the first time we’ve had ‘almost lyrical’

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
November 26, 2025 at 11:05 AM
Reposted by Nick Davies
timdurrant.bsky.social
I would say this, but the IfG's budget live blog is already great, even before we get to the main event - where else do you get this kind of content?
An IfG live blog post from Jill Rutter, titled "Keep the chancellor away from the Treasury" What will Rachel Reeves and her officials be doing in the last few hours before the budget? In earlier eras, chancellors could change their minds down to the wire (though the Red Book would be printed over the weekend) and rewrite their speech. That could mean laborious retypes and recollations. That led to an instruction in the Treasury’s own budget day manual to “Keep the chancellor away from the Treasury” after the budget had been presented to the cabinet in the morning. Chancellors would be dispatched to St James’s Park to be photographed feeding the ducks, while Treasury officials frantically compiled printed copies of the budget speech. No indication yet that this is the plan for this morning! But if you see Rachel Reeves heading into the park, you know that another bit of Treasury orthodoxy still rules.
November 26, 2025 at 10:22 AM
Reposted by Nick Davies
cassiarowland.bsky.social
Looks like Lammy is going significantly further than the Leveson criminal courts review proposed on jury trials: abolished for anyone likely to face a sentence <5 years (Leveson suggested 3). You can make arguments for and against juries — but the claim it‘s *necessary* doesn’t stand up:
The Leveson review: Cutting jury trials is not the only option | Institute for Government
The Leveson review is welcome – but doesn’t address the most fundamental problem in the courts.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 25, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Reposted by Nick Davies
hpiandycowper.bsky.social
Thanks Nick. Temporarily unpaywalled. www.healthpolicyinsight.com/cowpers-cut-...
Cowper’s Cut 403: It’s a big mess, you say?
“In Whitehall we were very worried about the promises they (Labour) made before the election on not raising taxes because we obviously knew the true state of the public finances that would face them o...
www.healthpolicyinsight.com
November 25, 2025 at 5:51 PM
Reposted by Nick Davies
cathhaddon.bsky.social
It feels like budget has been going for weeks but a good live-blog starts the day before. Lots from @instituteforgovernment.org.uk before the big day

▪️What has govt already announced?
▪️Will they change fiscal strategy?
▪️What to look out for on tax?

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
LIVE BLOG | Autumn budget 2025: Rachel Reeves prepares to announce tax measures | Institute for Government
IfG experts analyse Reeves' budget and explore what the chancellor's plans for the economy, tax and spending mean.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 25, 2025 at 5:07 PM
njdavies.bsky.social
Another great edition of @hpiandycowper.bsky.social's newsletter. This week it features the Covid inquiry, @instituteforgovernment.org.uk analysis of the NHS, and the brutal PAC report on reducing elective waiting times

www.healthpolicyinsight.com/cowpers-cut-...
IfG report finds health is in a mess The Institute For Government’s annual ‘Public Services Tracker’ has become another key part of the public sector landscape. Its sections on health, linked at the top in the R&RR list below, tell us things about the English NHS with which ‘Cut’ readers are wearily familiar. That doesn’t make them less valuable, of course. The IfG’s considerable reputation makes these things much harder to ignore. Its review describes the ‘triple shift’ ambitions as being “admirable aims. But they are also reforms that previous governments have attempted and largely failed to deliver. Streeting will need to overcome substantial institutional, financial, and political barriers to deliver his promises”. It is fair on the government’s record since the 2024 general election, calling it “mixed. There have been minor performance improvements in hospitals, a fall in hospital staff turnover, and a substantial uptick in the number of salaried GPs. “At the same time, there is evidence of increasing financial pressure in hospital trusts, industrial action by resident doctors is once again dampening activity, and the government has forced the service to focus time and money on abolishing NHS England (NHSE), reorganising integrated care boards and making redundancies, at the expense of a focus on improving performance.”
November 25, 2025 at 11:38 AM
Reposted by Nick Davies
gilesyb.bsky.social
oh, I appear to have started a Substack by accident gileswilkes.substack.com/p/the-fiscal...
the fiscal rules, again?
people don't like them. Their better ideas just recreate them
gileswilkes.substack.com
November 24, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Reposted by Nick Davies
stuarthoddinott.bsky.social
One of my favourite charts from this year's Performance Tracker

Each dot shows a trust's bed occupancy in a given month

What's notable is how little variation there is across the country and across time

Go into any hospital in any month and you will find almost every bed is occupied
November 24, 2025 at 11:56 AM
njdavies.bsky.social
Great column by @sonia-sodha.bsky.social on Labour's efforts to improve public services. They inherited a mess, but should have done far more in opposition to prepare for government

www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
Text reading: Let’s leave aside the inconvenient truth that a gift for connecting with people is fundamental to the job of leading a country. I would have more time for this pitch if evidence of all this competence was starting to bud. Unfortunately for Starmer, a report from the Institute for Government (IFG) this week laid bare just how poorly ministers are doing in turning around Britain’s creaking public services. To be fair, as with the economy, Labour inherited a mess: schools, hospitals, prisons, courts and beyond underfunded, lacking in capital investment and with many having undergone expensive reorganisations that actively made things worse. Erosions in frontline pay of 10-20 per cent lowered staff morale and piqued the propensity to strike. And all while demand for public services has risen, as a result of the pandemic but also a funding doom loop in which cuts to preventative health and children’s services create greater need for more expensive acute services, further reducing cash for preventative services.
November 24, 2025 at 8:55 AM
njdavies.bsky.social
Just finished Don’t Burn Anyone at the Stake Today by @naomialderman.bsky.social and can’t recommend it enough. Describing the current moment as an information crisis explains so much about why so many people are losing their minds online. But it also provides ideas for how we get through this
November 23, 2025 at 8:24 PM
Reposted by Nick Davies
gemmatetlow.bsky.social
Hot on the heels of yesterday's Covid inquiry report on decision making, @shaina-sangha.bsky.social and I have a new report out today looking at how combined epidemiological-economic modelling could help government better prepare for future pandemics www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
Combined epidemiological and economic modelling | Institute for Government
The pandemic showed the need for government to improve its use of modelling.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 21, 2025 at 9:33 AM
Reposted by Nick Davies
stuarthoddinott.bsky.social
A chart that surprised me: NHS staff absences for mental health reasons are at record highs, above pandemic levels

Absences for that reason have grown far faster than the combination of other reasons since 2016

Staff were absent for 1.4% of all working days for mental health reasons in YE May 2025
November 20, 2025 at 9:34 AM
njdavies.bsky.social
The government has established a new public services cabinet committee. It will be chaired by Darren Jones, with Streeting, Phillipson and Reed also permanent members.

Yesterday we called for govt to urgently establish a cross-govt approach to public services, so this is potentially promising
November 20, 2025 at 9:45 AM
Reposted by Nick Davies
sophiemetcalfe.bsky.social
NEW: Report from me and @nehaldavison.bsky.social on how and why boys from low-income families get left behind in their early years
🧵⬇️
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
The opportunity gap facing boys from low-income families at age 5 and beyond | Institute for Government
Early attainment gaps mean some boys don't just start behind, they stay behind.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 20, 2025 at 7:41 AM
Reposted by Nick Davies
russellwebster.com
What progress has Labour made on public services?
@cassiarowland.bsky.social from @instituteforgovernment.org.uk sums up overall government performance in the last of her series of performance tracker guest posts.
www.russellwebster.com/what-progres...
What progress has Labour made on public services?
Cassia Rowland from the Institute for Government sums up overall government performance in the last of her series of performance tracker guest posts.
www.russellwebster.com
November 20, 2025 at 6:38 AM
Reposted by Nick Davies
stuarthoddinott.bsky.social
NEW REPORT: performance in hospitals in England declined to record lows under the last govt

Labour won the election promising to turn the NHS around

How are they doing?

🧵👇

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
Performance Tracker 2025: Hospitals | Institute for Government
Hospital performance is trending gently upwards. But tight finances in hospital trusts will constrain further efforts.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 19, 2025 at 3:02 PM