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Stuart Hoddinott

@stuarthoddinott.bsky.social

2.6K followers 520 following 440 posts

Associate Director in the public services team @InstituteforGov. Interested in the NHS, adult social care, and local government. All views my own. He/him

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Stuart Hoddinott @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social · 10h

NEW REPORT: Local authorities have been struggling with pressures from austeirty for years, but there are signs that pressure is now particularly acute

As a result, they are having to make tough decisions about finances and services

🧵👇 on findings

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...

Performance Tracker 2025: Local government overview | Institute for Government

The government is making good progress towards rebalancing local government funding. But the sector shows signs of mounting financial distress.

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk

2 9 7

Reposted by Stuart Hoddinott

Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 7h

All very amusing, but especially this:

"The most popular was an “Australian-style points-based immigration system,” with a net 46 percent support. The least popular was “Britain’s current immigration policy,” with -39 percent support."

www.politico.eu/article/labo...

Brits are pining for the pre-Brexit migration system

The idea was that leaving the bloc would give the U.K. back “control” of its borders and create a fairer system. But the widespread perception is it didn’t turn out that way.

www.politico.eu

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Reposted by Stuart Hoddinott

Jack Kessler @jackkessler.bsky.social · 11h

"Adult social care factories."

Local government used to fund youth clubs, libraries and Sure Start centres. But years of cuts have stripped it to the bone, as the @instituteforgovernment.org.uk's Public Services Performance Tracker lays bare.

My newsletter, out now.

Adult social care factories

Local government used to fund youth clubs, libraries and Sure Start centres. But years of cuts have stripped it to the bone, as a new IfG report lays bare

www.linestotake.com

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Reposted by Stuart Hoddinott

Amber Dellar @amberdellar.bsky.social · 9h

4 patterns we're seeing in adult social care, children's social care and homelessness services (with graphs)

And what govt should do about it

A thread from @instituteforgovernment.org.uk's NEW jumbo report (read 1 get 3 free) on the state of local government services and finance 👇

Public Services Performance Tracker 2025 | Institute for Government

Labour’s public service plans are less than the sum of their parts.

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk

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Stuart Hoddinott @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social · 10h

I'll follow this up with a thread with more detail on adult social care

And you should follow @amberdellar.bsky.social for info on children's social care, homelessness and her excellent analysis of LAs' performance across multiple services

Stuart Hoddinott @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social · 10h

That's a fiscal risk for the govt, but also a political one

LAs are likely going to have to make further cuts to non-social care services. People notice that. And they notice their council tax bill going up

The govt needs local services to improve by the next election. Not clear that they will

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Stuart Hoddinott @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social · 10h

All those should be welcomed - the last govt ducked many

But it's not clear that they will resolve the deep, structural financial difficulties in the sector

Reforms might save money in the longer-term, others move money around. It may not be enough to offset rising costs and demand

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Stuart Hoddinott @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social · 10h

The govt is making difficult reforms in the sector. These include:
- Local govt reorganisation
- Fair Funding Review 2.0
- Children's social care reform and upcoming white papers on SEND and homelessness
- Reforming local audit
- Multi-year settlement and reduction of ringfenced pots of money

Stuart Hoddinott @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social · 10h

If I were govt I would be very worried about the financial sustainability of the sector

Increases in funding are being eaten up by rising demand and costs of social care and homelessness

So govt is having to spend more every year to get the same level of access and quality from those services

Stuart Hoddinott @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social · 10h

Why do reserves and borrowing matter? There is good evidence that LAs that go on to claim EFS have lower reserves and higher borrowing

Hard to know about causality here and could be a sign of bad financial mgmt in general

But direction is not good for either metric - more LAs likely to need EFS

Stuart Hoddinott @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social · 10h

LA borrowing has also ticked up for the first time since the pandemic. Not by much, but still the reversal of a pretty steady trend

It's hard to know what LAs spend borrowed money on, but it could well be that expanded use of EFS is encouraging more borrowing

Stuart Hoddinott @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social · 10h

More concerningly, almost half (48%) of LAs have drawn down their reserves for 3+ consecutive years - by far the highest level on record

This is not usual! Before the pandemic, the highest level was 13% in 2016/17

Stuart Hoddinott @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social · 10h

Then there's reserves. LAs hold reserves for emergencies and to smooth uneven cash flows. They are not supposed to be used as a source of funding for day to day services

But it seems LAs are increasingly using them that way

Reserves have fallen since 2021/22 and are now near 2011/12 levels

Stuart Hoddinott @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social · 10h

Some LAs have also been given permission to raise council tax by more than the 5% granted to other councils

It's almost certain that the majority of LAs will continue to raise CT by the max allowed over coming years, further raising bills for residents

Stuart Hoddinott @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social · 10h

Why do I say that? A few reasons. The government is relying heavily on "exceptional financial support" (EFS) to prop up councils

That's horrible jargon, but basically gives LAs permission to borrow and sell assets (e.g. libraries) to fund day to day services

That's clearly not a long-term solution

Stuart Hoddinott @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social · 10h

Financial failure was well publicised a few years ago, when there was a spate of section 114 notices ("bankruptcies")

Since Nottingham in 2023 there haven't been any s114 notices due to financial failure and attention has died down. I'd argue the sector is in more financial distress now

Stuart Hoddinott @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social · 10h

The balance between acute and preventative services has shifted dramatically. E.g. children's services

Spending on services like children's centres is down 79% in real terms, while acute services (e.g. looked after children) is up 71%

That contributes to rising acute demand in the long-term

Stuart Hoddinott @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social · 10h

Given funding pressures, LAs are increasingly funding acute, statutory services (like adult and children's social care) while cutting spending on more universal or preventative services

That has meant cuts of ~50% to libraries and ~60% to youth services

Stuart Hoddinott @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social · 10h

The source of LA funding has also changed. As central govt cut grant funding, LAs increasingly relied on council tax to fund services

CT funding rose from 34% in 2009/10 to a high of 52% in 2019/20 though has now fallen back to 45%

And almost all LAs increase CT by the max they can every year

Stuart Hoddinott @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social · 10h

Cuts fell heaviest on the most deprived councils. The 10% most deprived LAs saw their funding cut by a third in real terms from 2010 to 2020, despite higher demand for services

There has been some rebalancing since. But more deprived LAs have still ended up worse off in 24/25 than less deprived LAs

Stuart Hoddinott @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social · 10h

Local authorities (LAs) bore the brunt of austerity and saw their funding fall by ~24% in real terms from 2010 to 2020

Funding has risen since. But despite that, funding will still be lower in 2028/29 in real terms than in 2009/10

When accounting for pop. growth, it'll still be 16% lower in 28/29

Stuart Hoddinott @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social · 10h

Performance Tracker 2025: Local government overview | Institute for Government

The government is making good progress towards rebalancing local government funding. But the sector shows signs of mounting financial distress.

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk

2 9 7

Reposted by Stuart Hoddinott

Kiran Stacey @kiranstacey.bsky.social · 1d

EXC: English councils will still be poorer in 2029 than they were in 2010, according to the IfG.

Report finds councils are increasingly providing social care and little else. Libraries, youth services, parks, all falling by the wayside.

www.theguardian.com/society/2025...

English councils to remain poorer than in 2010 despite funding rise, says report

Exclusive: Impact of austerity cannot be undone by end of parliament despite above-inflation funding, analysis finds

www.theguardian.com

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Reposted by Stuart Hoddinott

Sam Macrory @sammacrory.bsky.social · 1d

NEW: Part 1 of the brilliant @instituteforgovernment.org.uk Performance Tracker

@stuarthoddinott.bsky.social & @amberdellar.bsky.social have dug deep into local government services & finances

It’s.. gloomy

As @theguardian.com @kiranstacey.bsky.social reports

www.theguardian.com/society/2025...

English councils to remain poorer than in 2010 despite funding rise, says report

Exclusive: Impact of austerity cannot be undone by end of parliament despite above-inflation funding, analysis finds

www.theguardian.com

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Reposted by Stuart Hoddinott

Nick Davies @njdavies.bsky.social · 1d

NEW: @instituteforgovernment.org.uk have published pt1 of Public Services Performance Tracker 2025 covering local government finances and overall performance, adult social care, children's social care and homelessness

Incredible work by @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social & @amberdellar.bsky.social

Public Services Performance Tracker 2025 | Institute for Government

Labour’s public service plans are less than the sum of their parts.

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk

2 32 37

Reposted by Stuart Hoddinott

Shaina Sangha @shaina-sangha.bsky.social · 1d

Good opportunity to bump our @instituteforgovernment.org.uk explainer on public inquiries. CO advising on whether to create an inquiry as well as on ToR reduces political impulse to create one just because it is the easiest immediate action to take. tinyurl.com/trfwv7z2

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