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Mark McGeoghegan

@markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · Sep 5

New Scottish Parliament poll tracker, incorporating yesterday's @moreincommonuk.bsky.social polling. Thanks to 12 marginal holds and 3 marginal gains, the SNP match their 2021 result.

Seats (+/- 2021):

SNP: 64 (-)
Lab: 18 (-4)
Ref: 16 (+16)
LD: 11 (+7)
Con: 10 (-21)
Grn: 10 (+2)
Alba: 0 (-)

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 22h

"Le Pen turns the screw".

She can't run for President even if he does resign, and controls just 21% of the Assemblée nationale.

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 22h

Good job here by Bremner at dismissing the French left by focusing on RN as the largest "single party", rather than the left bloc as the largest force in French parliamentary politics.

The Times & Sunday Times @thetimes.com · 22h

The French president insists he will serve until his term ends, and blames bickering opposition for turmoil that threatens his latest fragile government

I won’t resign, says Macron, as Marine Le Pen turns the screw

The French president insists he will serve until his term ends, and blames bickering opposition for turmoil that threatens his latest fragile government

www.thetimes.com

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 1d

Almost certainly.

Why I think the odds are against Fergus Ewing

The odds are inexorably against Fergus Ewing and there is no evidence that his popularity outstrips that of his former party.

www.heraldscotland.com

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 1d

That's a good question. I'm not sure - the left-right split appears in 2014, but my thinking is that that campaign crystallised a lot of under-the-surface shifts.

Without going into detail, I'll be looking a lot more at these long-term shifts in a new role with Glasgow's Centre for Public Policy.

Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 1d

Aye, fair enough.

Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 1d

Like I said, depends on modelling assumptions (bearing in mind that ahead-of-time modelling uses Monte Carlo to introduce randomness).

You're making specific assumptions there which are perfectly reasonable.

Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 1d

Something that works in their favour, modelling wise, is constituency correlation. In that they don't have independent likelihood of winning or losing each marginal, those %s are highly correlated. So if they keep one seat they need to hold on to, they're much more likely to hold the others etc.

Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 1d

There are some modelling quirks here, in the sense that if those DKs go back to the SNP they'll also gain on the list. Really depends on the simulation parameters.

By "on the cards" I'm probably estimating like 10% chance.

Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 1d

"doomed" is unnecessarily apocalyptic language, but let's say we had ambitions for a Middle East as peaceful as post-WWII Europe - it's hard to see how that'd happen without a two-state solution.

Middle East 'doomed' without Palestinian state, King of Jordan says

In an exclusive interview with BBC Panorama, the king says a two-state solution is the only answer.

www.bbc.co.uk

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 1d

Get well mate!

Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 1d

The SNP *gaining* seats while losing vote share, nevermind gaining a majority while doing so, would be mad.

The latter would also trigger an almighty row over what, exactly, constitutes a referendum mandate re. the 2011 result.

Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 1d

Something that's gone under the radar ahead of the 2026 Holyrood elections is the % of voters who are undecided, & who they are.

Around an eighth of likely voters don't know who they'd vote for. Over half of those voted SNP in 2021. If they go back to the SNP, a majority isn't off the cards.

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 1d

I do recall making a joke about being "too far gone" because my blood was literally wine. That didn't help.

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 1d

I'd had a fair few, but I wasn't experiencing early-onset psychosis, thankfully.

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 1d

Which, yeah, might be hotter than me well-ackshually-ing an article with a dodgy interpretation of a poll.

Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 1d

Here was me about to post a picture of me dressed as Jesus for Halloween in 2011, arguing with a bouncer.

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Reposted by Mark McGeoghegan

Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 2d

Analysis in @thetimes.com by @leaskyd.bsky.social & Anna Dowell of the sharp decline in British identity uncovered by the Scottish Social Attitudes survey.

With comment from Sir John Curtice on the polarising of Scottish politics and from myself on the decoupling of Scottish and British identities:

Why Scots are losing their British identity

With only a quarter of respondents to the Scottish Social Attitudes survey identifying with Britishness, Scotland faces a generational political split

www.thetimes.com

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Reposted by Mark McGeoghegan

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 1d

From what I've read of the '100 years' tributes so far, especially those penned by her devotees, 'nothing', as one of her successors once insisted, 'has changed' (and probably never will).

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 1d

The only pollster to have tried to test this is Find Out Now, who asked how Scots would vote in a referendum if Farage was PM.

Yes: 55%
No: 37%
DK: 8%

An 18 point Yes lead v. a 5 point lead without the Farage hypothetical.

But Qs remain over FON's reliability, and we know hypotheticals aren't.

POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 1d

While Scottish independence seems more distant than ever, Scottish National Party leader John Swinney hopes that, of all people, arch-Brexiteer Nigel Farage may be the game-changer his cause needs.

The new hero of Scottish independence? Nigel Farage

The Scottish National Party’s independence dream is still stuck — but a bogeyman could help.

www.politico.eu

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 1d

Labour call the SNP "tired and incompetent", which the public agree with. But one thing they're more likely to think is that Labour aren't ready to replace them, so where does that get you?

Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 1d

The responses of Labour and the Tories to Swinney's speech are pretty amusing.

Tories gave theirs *before* he spoke, accusing him of ignoring Scotland's priorities. The walk-in GP clinics announcement will be the biggest from the speech.

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 1d

The Conservatives basing their foreign policy takes on diplomatic dispatches from Calgie of all people.

Sam Wilson @samwilson.bsky.social · 1d

Basically fanfic at this point

Calgie
@christiancalgie
It is clear that Trump - likely after a request from No10 - put pressure on Witkoff to tweet this after yesterday's humiliating slap down.
Everyone in the current Republican administration is baffled by Trump's fondness for Starmer, which is not shared by anyone else.
If Trump fails to last the full term, Britain's foreign policy will fall apart under whoever his successor is.

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 1d

(the polling in Q)

Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 1d

SNP trying to steal a march on Labour's healthcare focus ahead of the election. It was their (net) worst-performing area in the most recent Ipsos Scotland poll, and one of the areas Scots thought Labour was most likely to do better on (which isn't saying much...).

SNP will introduce network of walk-in GP services, John Swinney tells conference

The first minister tells delegates in Aberdeen that the facilities will be open seven days a week.

www.bbc.co.uk

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 1d

Is Badenoch talking about a completely different cast of characters? There's no universe in which Trump - in exchange for nothing from Starmer - leaned on Witkoff to say something nice about

*checks notes*

Jonathan Powell? A man with a famously huge ego who definitely cares about getting credit.

Thomas I-G @thomasig.bsky.social · 1d

Lol, actually wild stuff to say on today of all days when it's pretty good news all round.

The Guardian live page update from today:

Referring to the post from Steve Witkoff this morning (see 9.53am), Badenoch said:

■ I was not born yesterday. I think it is actually very sad that the government is having to beg people to send tweets to say something nice about Jonathan Powell.

The American ambassador to Israel has actually criticised the government, saying they are delusional for saying that they have anything to do with this peace deal.

I think that that is quite tragic, the way that the UK's reputation is falling under this Labour government.

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