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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte

@turnbulldugarte.com

5.4K followers 1.3K following 780 posts

Political scientist 🇿🇦🏳️‍🌈 Associate Editor POQ, EJPG, and R&P he/him Far-right, social identities, & electoral behaviour Writing a book on LGBTQ voters for PUP 🏳️‍🌈🗳️ http://turnbulldugarte.com/ #ihadablackdog https://youtu.be/XiCrniLQGYc?si=q-gQTNXfScmgtl4k .. more

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · Sep 5

Radical right accommodation really does not work.

New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk

doi.org/10.31235/osf...

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1h

Looking for a citation.

Are there any papers that systematically assess policy responsiveness disparities based on age groups generally or pension eligibility specifically?

Peter Allen @peterallen.bsky.social · 5d

Print and send this chart (from your newsletter on Tuesday) to every household in the country.

A graph from the FT showing government spending by age cohort. Over-70s have more spent on them than any other age cohort.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 21h

Thank you.

It's definitely a "compound" treatment as the event this is based on is an instance where PP signalled rejection of formal collab. and also described VOX as racist, misogynistic and homophobic.

So not a simple case of rhetorical/policy convergence but rather ostracism.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 21h

It is indeed. Code is here: osf.io/8rpwf/files

An animated version of the top panel from these.

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Reposted by Tim Bale, Pauline Stafford, Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte , and 1 more Tim Bale, Pauline Stafford, Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte, Johanna Rickne

Luca Salvadori @lvsalvadori.bsky.social · 23h

How does sexual harassment shape women’s academic careers? At today’s #BellaterraAppliedSeminar, @johannarickne.bsky.social kicks off the series with a fascinating analysis revealing how toxic environments hinder women’s progress and distort meritocracy. @bsebarcelona.bsky.social #GenderEconomics

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

1. Camp A wants the right to govern at all costs and can stomach far-right accommodation

2. Camp B wants the right to govern but would prefer a minority gov. or a centrist coalition and is demobilised by thought of far-right in gov.

Since B>A, net effect of accommodation is negative.

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

The case of the centre-right, particularly in Spain, is different from the left. Whereas for the left I'm convinced there is a clear negative effect of accommodation, I can see why theoretically there will be asymmetries among centre-right supporters [...]

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

2. The consulting class is unlikely to want to correct a prior it's investing significant energy selling to its clients

3. This is not an electoral strategy based on vote-seeking but actually a policy-seeking outcome.

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

I think this is a genuine puzzle. I know that @tabouchadi.bsky.social has been asked this frequently of the left too. In the absence of a data-driven answer, the best I can do is theorise.

1. Simple (but wrong) explanations about market transfers are easily translated to strategy [...]

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

Yes I don't believe those two explanations are mutually exclusive. An economically competent party on your left and a radical alternative to your right that you then mimic, does not provide you with a fertile ground to win votes

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Reposted by Efrén O. Pérez, Miranda J. Lubbers, Daphne Halikiopoulou , and 1 more Efrén O. Pérez, Miranda J. Lubbers, Daphne Halikiopoulou, Bonnie N. Field

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

The Spanish centre-right is taking a tumble and the far-right is on the rise.

I was lucky enough to present some new causal work on Friday at LSE showing that the PP does better when it signals distinctiveness from VOX.

~1.5K tests, same result. Rejecting far-right benefits centre-right

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

Finally, like I always like to do, some transparency on the process.

This paper was desk rejected twice. It was accepted at JEPP after 1 round of revisions

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

The paper is available open access here: doi.org/10.1080/1350...

Replication materials here: doi.org/10.7910/DVN/...

A game of tariffs: is there demand for tariffs in Europe?

In April 2025, the United States introduced sweeping tariffs on imports from the European Union and the United Kingdom, raising transatlantic tensions and prompting debate over Europe’s response. T...

doi.org

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

Our take-home message?

Tariffs — retaliatory or otherwise — are NOT a vote-winning strategy for European politicians.

Leaders seeking “firm” responses to US protectionism might find limited public backing at home. 🗳️🇪🇺

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

Across every identifiable subgroup for which we have data — left/right, young/old, man/woman, etc — the pattern is the same.

We find there is NO group that shows majority support for tariffs.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

We pre-registered variation in support for tariffs conditional on levels of (negative) affect towards the US broadly or Trump specifically.

Against our expectation, we find no clear pattern across German and British respondents.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

The results are clear across both countries: Europeans reject tariffs over other protectionist measures

It doesn’t matter if they’re framed as -
• protection for domestic producers
• funding for green policies 🌱
• retaliation against other nations 🇺🇸

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

To find out, we ran two pre-registered conjoint experiments in the aftermath of the tariff news

🇩🇪 Germany – coalition-preference experiment
🇬🇧 United Kingdom – visual candidate-choice experiment

Tariff proposals were tested alongside other policies to simulate realistic political trade-offs.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

In April 2025, on his self-penned 'Liberation Day', the US President launched sweeping tariffs on EU & UK goods rekindling fears of a new trade war 🇺🇸🇪🇺

Polling suggested support for retaliation: but are those attitudes real, or just patriotic reflexes in a heated moment?

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Reposted by Robert Huber

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

Tariffs might be the word of 2025.

Given the state of *looks around* we asked: is there demand for tariffs in Europe?

@grahn.bsky.social @katharinalawall.bsky.social @sophiemainz.bsky.social Maria Nordbrandt & I show the answer is a resolute no
@jeppjournal.bsky.social

doi.org/10.1080/1350...

A game of tariffs: is there demand for tariffs in Europe?

doi.org

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Reposted by Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte, Nick Clarke

Peter Allen @peterallen.bsky.social · 5d

Print and send this chart (from your newsletter on Tuesday) to every household in the country.

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Reposted by Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte

Mirya R. Holman @mirya.bsky.social · 5d

Yes indeed. Code is from @nicduquette.bsky.social! (there are three books on there, FYI)

Average time from project start to publication: 3.69 years
Median time: 2.84
Minimum: 3 months
Max: 11 years

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Reposted by Marc Debus, Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte

Constantin Wurthmann @wurthmann.bsky.social · 5d

For my DFG-funded project “German Sexual Identity and Election Study” and my ERC-funded project “VisibleQueers”, I am looking for three student assistants (m/f/d) to provide dedicated support and active collaboration.

Please share!

www.mzes.uni-mannheim.de/en/three-stu...

Three Student Assistants (m/f/d) Projects German Sexual Identity and Election Study as well as VisibleQueers

www.mzes.uni-mannheim.de

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Reposted by Cas Mudde, Ruth Dassonneville, Robert Huber , and 7 more Cas Mudde, Ruth Dassonneville, Robert Huber, Benjamin Braun, Swen Hutter, Markus Wagner, Dorte Sindbjerg Martinsen, Klaus H. Goetz, Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte, Tarik Abou‐Chadi

David Attewell @davidattewell6.bsky.social · 7d

@dpzollinger.bsky.social and I are thrilled "Cleavage Politics in Western Democracies" is out as an SI at @wepsocial.bsky.social!

Its papers explore the foundations of the cleavage pitting new left against radical right parties, and how it compares to the classic cleavages of Lipset & Rokkan:

🧵⬇️

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Reposted by Will Jennings, Kai Arzheimer, Rebecca Sear , and 12 more Will Jennings, Kai Arzheimer, Rebecca Sear, Robert Huber, Alessandro Nai, Richard Hayton, Matthijs Rooduijn, Christian Rauh, Caterina Froio, Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte, Daphne Halikiopoulou, M Josep, Bonnie N. Field, Tarik Abou‐Chadi, Roos Vonk

Teresa Völker @tevoelker.bsky.social · 7d

New paper out with @dasalgon.bsky.social: “Far-Right Agenda Setting: How the Far Right influences the Political Mainstream” doi.org/10.1017/S1475676525100066 #openaccess in @ejprjournal.bsky.social🧵

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Reposted by Will Jennings, Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte

Hetan Shah @hetanshah.bsky.social · 7d

Nice chart from @ourworldindata.org showing the contrast between what Americans die of (heart disease and cancer) v what the US media reports on (homicide and terrorism). This naturally leads to it being trickier to build a fact based world view
ourworldindata.org/does-the-new...

What Americans die from
and the causes of death the US media reports on
Causes of death in the US in 2023
Heart disease (29%)
Cancer (26%)
Accidents (9.5%)
Stroke (6.9%)
Lower respiratory diseases
(6.2%)
Alzheimer's disease (4.8%)
Diabetes (4.0%)
Kidney failure (2.4%)
Liver disease (2.2%)
Homicide (<1%)
Terrorism (<0.001%)|
COVID-19 (2.1%)
Influenza/Pneu
monia (19%6)

Media coverage of these causes of death in 2023 in...
The New York Times
The Washington Post
Fox News
Heart disease (2.8%)
Heart disease (2.9%)
Cancer (4.1%)
Cancer (4.7%)
Accidents (5.9%)
Cancer (3.8%)
Accidents (6.1%)
Accidents (9.7%)
Suicide (4.1%)
Suicide (3.3%)
COVID-19 (6.0%)
COVID-19 (7.9%)
Suicide (3.8%)
COVID-19 (5.3%)
Drug overdose (7.5%)
Drug overdose (9.8%)
Drug overdose (9.5%)
Cancer (26%)
Accidents (9.5%)
Stroke (6.9%)
Lower respiratory diseases
(6.2%)
Alzheimer's disease (4.8%)
Diabetes (4.0%)
Kidney failure (24%)
Suicide (2.1%0)
COVID-19 (2.1%0
Homicide (42%)
Homicide (52%)
Homicide (46%)
Terrorism (18%)
Terrorism (12%)
Terrorism (11%)
Homicide (<1%)
Terrorism (<0.001%)
Note: Based on the share of causes of death in the US and the share of mentions for each of the causes in the New York Times, the Washington Post and Fox News. All values are normalized to 100%, so the shares are relative to all deaths caused by the 12 most common causes + drug overdoses, homicides and terrorism. These causes account for more than 75% of deaths in the US.
A "media mention" is a published article in one of the outlets which mentions the cause (e,g. "influenza) or related keywords (e.g. "fu") least twice.
Data sources: Media mentions from Media Cloud (2025): deaths data from the US CDC (2025) and Global Terrorism Index.|
CC BY

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Reposted by Alexander Wuttke, Robert Huber, Robert C. Richards , and 1 more Alexander Wuttke, Robert Huber, Robert C. Richards, Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte

Ruth Dassonneville @rdassonneville.bsky.social · 8d

Really excited that after several years of working on it, revising, and getting lots of rejections, our paper (w/ Rune Stubager & Mads Thau) on citizens’ responses to group appeals is *finally* out @ejprjournal.bsky.social

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

A 🧵 on our findings...

How group appeals shape candidate support: The role of group membership, identity strength, and deservingness perceptions | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core

How group appeals shape candidate support: The role of group membership, identity strength, and deservingness perceptions

www.cambridge.org

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Reposted by Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte

CTXT @ctxt.es · 10d

Dagmar Herzog define el ‘fascismo posmoderno’: libidinal, deconstruccionista y cruel. La ultraderecha erotiza el racismo, desprecia discapacidad y premia dañar. Batalla afectiva: ¿cómo mover el deseo hacia comunidad, cuidado y democracia?

Las nuevas derechas y el placer de la crueldad

El autoritarismo neofascista aleja a las personas de la promesa de democracia, paz e igualdad y las lleva hacia la violencia destructiva ofreciéndoles un atractivo clave: la alegría de hacer daño al otro

ctxt.es

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Reposted by Robert Huber, Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte, Liza Mügge

European Journal of Politics and Gender @ejpgjournal.bsky.social · 12d

WE WANT YOU! 🫵

The call for a new editorial team for the EJPG is now open❗
The mandate of the journal's sitting stellar team led by @jennpiscopo.bsky.social & @payoub.bsky.social will come to an end in July 2026.

📆 Applications must be received by November 23rd

Details of call here: rb.gy/lqidii

Application deadline: 23 November 2025

The Editorial Management Board of the European Journal of Politics and Gender invites applications for the editorship of the journal to run for a period of three years from July 2026, with the possibility of renewing for a second two-year term. The European Journal of Politics and Gender (EJPG) is a peer-reviewed journal that publishes international, cutting-edge research in the broad field of politics and gender. The journal has an Impact Factor of 2.3, ranking in the top quartile of both Political Science and Women’s Studies journals. The journal understands research in ‘politics and gender’ to include both gender and LGBTQIA+ politics. The new editorial team is expected to continue the journal’s LGBTQIA+-inclusive approach to gender and politics scholarship.

The current Lead Editors, Phillip Ayoub and Jennifer Piscopo, are stepping down with their Associate Editor team in July 2026. We are looking to appoint a team of two to three new Co-Lead Editors to shape the journal. The newly appointed Co-Lead Editors may work alongside one of the outgoing Lead Editors for a period of several months to ensure a smooth transition.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 12d

Olé - felicidades Enrique! Muy merecido 😍

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 12d

When writing this we did it with the hope that it wouldn't remain an ever-green comment on the state of the Labour Party.

For a brief moment during Starmer's conference speech I became more hopeful. As Starmer talks about Labour's latest radical right policy today, I've corrected myself.

David Storey @davidstoreygeog.bsky.social · 12d

"When radical-right words come from Labour mouths, the nativist and illiberal values attached to these words become increasingly normalised, shifting the boundaries of what is politically acceptable"
@tabouchadi.bsky.social & @turnbulldugarte.com
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Our research makes it clear: by capitulating to the right, Labour is driving voters to Reform UK | Tarik Abou-Chadi and Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte

Mimicking Farage on immigration is senseless. Labour voters feel betrayed; anti-immigration voters see through the ruse, say academics Tarik Abou-Chadi and Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte

www.theguardian.com

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