Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte
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turnbulldugarte.com
Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte
@turnbulldugarte.com

Political scientist 🇿🇦🏳️‍🌈
he/him
https://turnbulldugarte.com

[trying to spend less time on social media]

#ihadablackdog
https://youtu.be/XiCrniLQGYc?si=q-gQTNXfScmgtl4k

Political science 71%
Psychology 8%
Pinned
Happy, alongside @emiliabelknap.bsky.social, to make my debut contribution with the fantastic folks at @ukandeu.bsky.social

Emilia & I use data from @britishelectionstudy.com to correct the atomistic fallacy in people's understanding the Reform UK gender gap

ukandeu.ac.uk/most-british...
Most British young men reject the far right - UK in a changing Europe
Emilia Belknap and Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte explain their analysis on the demographics of Reform UK voters in the UK. They argue that while the dominant narrative is that young men are the most likely ...
ukandeu.ac.uk

Take home message? Geography *still* matters, even in a digital age.

Living near people who share your identity strengthens political engagement.

Full paper here: doi.org/10.1086/740816
Rallied by thy neighbor: how minority spatial concentration increases voter turnout | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja
doi.org

Some nice (we think) causal evidence that spatial concentration mobilizes voting among sexual minorities.

"Gaybourhoods" aren't just cultural spaces — they're politically consequential. Being embedded in spatially concentrated queer spaces can rally you to the ballot box.

Keep in mind: Sweden already has ~87% voter turnout 🤯, and LGB Swedes vote at even HIGHER rates than counterfactual straight peers (~93% vs ~89% in 2022).

So we're finding mobilization effects even at the ceiling. In lower-turnout countries, the effect could be much larger.

The result: a 1 percentage-point increase in LGB neighbors boosts LGB voter turnout by 1.56 pp MORE than it does for their straight neighbors.

That's a causal effect — and it holds up across multiple robustness checks (different neighbourhood sizes, controls for income/education, etc.).

The challenge: neighborhoods with more LGB residents also tend to be richer and more educated. So is it the *LGB neighbors* driving turnout, or just living in a "nice" area?

Our fix: a triple-difference design (DiDiD).

We used Swedish population registers covering nearly 8 MILLION people across 4 elections (1994–2022).

Sweden tracks *validated* voter turnout at the individual level + precise geolocation data

This let us build a "neighbourhood" around every single person & measure how many LGB neighbours they had

We know that minority neighbourhoods -- "gaybourhoods," ethnic enclaves -- can foster community and political identity.

But does living near other people from your group actually *cause* higher voter turnout? Or is that just correlation?

Reposted by Will Jennings

New paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social with @rafaelahlskog.bsky.social & @grahn.bsky.social

Your neighbours shape your politics — but can living near people like *cause* higher turnout?

We studied 20,000+ queer individuals across the entire Swedish population to find out

doi.org/10.1086/740816
Rallied by thy neighbor: how minority spatial concentration increases voter turnout | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja
doi.org

👏
🧑‍🤝‍🧑Do politicians consider the gender of leaders when selecting coalition partners?

➡️Using a conjoint on 979 Spanish mayors, @albahuidobro.bsky.social finds that mayors, especially those on the center and left, prefer coalitions with parties led by women www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
Some people like using our (w/ @markuswagner.bsky.social) heroes & villains paper to teach partisanship.

We've made it easier (and fun?) for students with a new online playground 🦹

doi.org/10.1017/psrm...

www.turnbulldugarte.com/heroes-playg...
Have you seen our Most Read collection? 👀

It's packed with some much must-read content from stars like @gefjonoff.bsky.social @katarzynawojnicka.bsky.social @profrosiecamp.bsky.social and others!

bristoluniversitypressdigital.com/subject/Most...

Collection now ✨FREE ACCESS✨until March 31st.
👀 Today we are announcing our first call for presentations for 2026!

🌈 We encourage all queer academics, especially PhD students, who study LGBTQ+ politics and want to present their work in a safe space to send their proposals.

📆 The call is open until February 6.

🙌 Feel free to share!
Queer Politics Webinar - Call for Presentations
🌈 We invite scholars, researchers and PhD students to submit presentation proposals for the upcoming sessions of the Queer Politics Webinar! We welcome contributions that focus on queer/LGBT+ politics...
docs.google.com
🌈 We are very happy to announce the first session of 2026!

Next week, on February 5, @angeliawagner.bsky.social and @joannaeveritt.bsky.social will present their amazing work on queer Canadian candidates and social media.

📆 Be sure to join us!
New publication with Lautaro Cella

Do voters reject gay candidates in LA? We find that most voters in Chile, Arg, and Mex do not penalize them, but voters aligned with far-right parties (e.g. Republican Party in Chile) do reject them at the ballot box.

journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

I like this award-winning paper for many reasons. You should read it if you care about instrumental inclusion.
Sneak peek of some results that say

1) women are relative cheap labour orientated towards green jobs (they think of a mid pay job en par with a high pay fossil job)

But

2) socialization and esp. diversity matters to them (while, depending on framing, it really turns men off)

Congrats Agus! I wish I would have been able to write a paper as good as this for my first publication.

Although I wasn't involved with the editorial decision-making on this, very glad to see it in POQ 😍

Homophobia alive and well in adoption decision-making 😱
❗My first publication is out!

Using a conjoint experiment with adoption solicitations, @bertous.bsky.social and I demonstrate that modern societies still exhibit prejudice against non-traditional relationships, including same-sex, open and age-gap couples

More below and in @poqjournal.bsky.social
❗My first publication is out!

Using a conjoint experiment with adoption solicitations, @bertous.bsky.social and I demonstrate that modern societies still exhibit prejudice against non-traditional relationships, including same-sex, open and age-gap couples

More below and in @poqjournal.bsky.social

Two pre-registered experiments, same story.

Respondents place in-group identities on heroes and out-group identities on villains.

Respondents (falsely) recall someone's political identity if they are positively or negatively valanced

Yet to surpass the (professional) fun we had in writing this piece now out in latest issue of @psrm.bsky.social

We know political identities share the valence we assign to others. Here we asked, do valence signals also shape the partisanship we assign to others?

doi.org/10.1017/psrm...
🎺 Call for proposals 🎺

1️⃣ replicate an existing experiment
2️⃣ run a novel experiment

on repdata.com

3️⃣ coauthor with Mary McGrath and me to meta-analyze the replications and existing studies
4️⃣ publish your study

details: alexandercoppock.com/replication_...
applications open Feb 1

please repost!

Yes, rejection is still my modal outcome in the peer review process (56% of submissions)

But here you can see how many times I've been desk rejected, from where, how long they took, and how many attempts it took to cross the R&R threshold

Reposted by Roman Senninger

Do homophobia and sexual prejudice still exist in tolerant societies?

In POQ, Ortega & Bosco's new study reveals how non-traditional relationships continue to be stigmatised in parenting contexts, even in seemingly liberal societies.

Read now: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
Escribo en El País a favor de la inclusión de las personas no binarias en las listas electorales.

Explico por qué el supuesto conflicto con los derechos de las mujeres es tramposo, y cómo el diseño electoral puede garantizar el avance de la representación de mujeres y personas no binarias. 🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️