Yu-Ming Liou
@yumingliou.bsky.social
Unfrozen caveman political economist. In my day, we didn't have fancy tools like causal identification, but we knew how to ask: “cui bono?"
Former political scientist. Now I do research for an internet thing. The good one, though.
Washington, DC
Former political scientist. Now I do research for an internet thing. The good one, though.
Washington, DC
Reposted by Yu-Ming Liou
* LEAVITT: HENRY II DOES NOT WANT TO EXECUTE ARCHBISHOP OF CANTERBURY
November 20, 2025 at 6:50 PM
* LEAVITT: HENRY II DOES NOT WANT TO EXECUTE ARCHBISHOP OF CANTERBURY
Reposted by Yu-Ming Liou
Great discussion that has been going on for serval days now up and down this thread and in the quotes (up and down). Metrics matter, and some of our main metrics in the housing discourse simply aren't responsive to the issues: Standard affordability metrics suffer from massive collider bias.
> What the “objective evidence” shows is that the share of income dedicated to housing is higher than before
???
No, it does not. www.bls.gov/news.release...
???
No, it does not. www.bls.gov/news.release...
November 20, 2025 at 11:22 PM
Great discussion that has been going on for serval days now up and down this thread and in the quotes (up and down). Metrics matter, and some of our main metrics in the housing discourse simply aren't responsive to the issues: Standard affordability metrics suffer from massive collider bias.
Ethnonationalist state capitalist regime that hates queer people is conservative?
Nooooooo
Nooooooo
china discourse rules over there because everybody for and against them thinks they’re communist and not the awful conservative regime they are
November 20, 2025 at 6:40 PM
Ethnonationalist state capitalist regime that hates queer people is conservative?
Nooooooo
Nooooooo
Reposted by Yu-Ming Liou
There is one and only position that makes any sense if you really take it seriously: say openly and unapologetically that he must be removed from office. Not just call on people to condemn it, not just fret about norms. He is literally trying to kill you. Act like it.
November 20, 2025 at 6:17 PM
There is one and only position that makes any sense if you really take it seriously: say openly and unapologetically that he must be removed from office. Not just call on people to condemn it, not just fret about norms. He is literally trying to kill you. Act like it.
Using RCP is the analysis version of ordering delivery surf and turf from Outback Steakhouse.
Nobody is allowed to get mad at me for using RCP, it's what is convenient on the Terminal, go make your own chart if you care to pls!
November 20, 2025 at 6:08 PM
Using RCP is the analysis version of ordering delivery surf and turf from Outback Steakhouse.
Reposted by Yu-Ming Liou
This is a direct result of Pelosi and McConnell not removing Trump from office on January 6th.
There was no downside to having Pence be POTUS for a few weeks.
There was no downside to having Pence be POTUS for a few weeks.
November 20, 2025 at 5:26 PM
This is a direct result of Pelosi and McConnell not removing Trump from office on January 6th.
There was no downside to having Pence be POTUS for a few weeks.
There was no downside to having Pence be POTUS for a few weeks.
Reposted by Yu-Ming Liou
The Democrats who keep voting to make Trump (and even themselves) king of DC should be banned from any pro-democracy protest because they are not, in fact, pro-democracy or anti-Trump.
November 20, 2025 at 3:24 AM
The Democrats who keep voting to make Trump (and even themselves) king of DC should be banned from any pro-democracy protest because they are not, in fact, pro-democracy or anti-Trump.
Reposted by Yu-Ming Liou
Oh, we don’t need immigration to fix our demographics. We can just do natalism, a policy aim no country in the world has been able to achieve, and in only 18 years that will fix it
June 5, 2025 at 8:12 AM
Oh, we don’t need immigration to fix our demographics. We can just do natalism, a policy aim no country in the world has been able to achieve, and in only 18 years that will fix it
Reposted by Yu-Ming Liou
basically every single measure of academic achievement is correlated with family income for pretty obvious reasons. the ~20% of SAT variation explained by family SES makes it one of the measures *least* determined by this.
And then we can go on to discuss the fact the only consistent correlation for SAT scores (as well as other standardized educational assessments) is to family income level--which in turn is nicely correlated to race/ethnicity for minoritized Americans.
November 20, 2025 at 1:24 AM
basically every single measure of academic achievement is correlated with family income for pretty obvious reasons. the ~20% of SAT variation explained by family SES makes it one of the measures *least* determined by this.
Immigrants make America great
I was reminded earlier today about when Kevin Garnett talked about Hakeem Olajuwon's trash talk, and it improved my day considerably. I share it now with you, in hopes that it will improve yours.
November 20, 2025 at 1:58 AM
Immigrants make America great
Reposted by Yu-Ming Liou
long time chomsky haters vindicated
November 19, 2025 at 12:25 AM
long time chomsky haters vindicated
This may be true! But the price signal is very clear on this: demand for dense urban living in these United States far outstrips supply.
There are far more people who want to live like I (and Will, presumably) do than can at present!
There are far more people who want to live like I (and Will, presumably) do than can at present!
One of the most shocking moments of my education was when a professor showed a visual of the same plot of land divided two different ways: 20 houses with yards, and one big condo with a park, lake, stores, amenities. She asked "Which do you prefer?"
The vote: 19 for the houses, 1 for the lake (me)
The vote: 19 for the houses, 1 for the lake (me)
I love my urban lifestyle, but a lot of people think that the way I live - small apartment, electric scooter, public transportation - is insane. Regs can influence things to a degree, but Americans want that big yard, standalone house and it's hard to convince them my lifestyle is better. I do try!
November 18, 2025 at 11:43 PM
This may be true! But the price signal is very clear on this: demand for dense urban living in these United States far outstrips supply.
There are far more people who want to live like I (and Will, presumably) do than can at present!
There are far more people who want to live like I (and Will, presumably) do than can at present!
What do you think might make high housing prices in a handful of metros important? I wonder.
November 18, 2025 at 10:06 PM
What do you think might make high housing prices in a handful of metros important? I wonder.
This whole thing is so American.
Low-level antisocial behavior is bizarrely commonplace here compared to other rich countries.
Extreme antisocial behavior (which frequently purports to be in retaliation to low-level antisocial behavior) is even more bizarrely and horribly commonplace here.
Low-level antisocial behavior is bizarrely commonplace here compared to other rich countries.
Extreme antisocial behavior (which frequently purports to be in retaliation to low-level antisocial behavior) is even more bizarrely and horribly commonplace here.
I am way more concerned about the guy doing the Travis Bickle monologue in his head about the guy watching videos with no headphones than the guy watching videos with no headphones
November 18, 2025 at 7:45 PM
This whole thing is so American.
Low-level antisocial behavior is bizarrely commonplace here compared to other rich countries.
Extreme antisocial behavior (which frequently purports to be in retaliation to low-level antisocial behavior) is even more bizarrely and horribly commonplace here.
Low-level antisocial behavior is bizarrely commonplace here compared to other rich countries.
Extreme antisocial behavior (which frequently purports to be in retaliation to low-level antisocial behavior) is even more bizarrely and horribly commonplace here.
Reposted by Yu-Ming Liou
Of course the White House is leaning into this. Because apparently they don't realize we exported more higher ed last year than natural gas & coal *combined*
November 17, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Of course the White House is leaning into this. Because apparently they don't realize we exported more higher ed last year than natural gas & coal *combined*
Reposted by Yu-Ming Liou
can bad prose be sexually transmitted
November 18, 2025 at 2:02 AM
can bad prose be sexually transmitted
Reposted by Yu-Ming Liou
This would herald the end of opt-in panel-based survey methods, since like Gresham's law or Akerlof's market for lemons, without being able to distinguish between real and fake respondents, fake respondents will drive the market price for real responses to zero.
We can no longer trust that survey responses are coming from real people.”
A Researcher Made an AI That Completely Breaks the Online Surveys Scientists Rely On
We can no longer trust that survey responses are coming from real people.”
www.404media.co
November 18, 2025 at 1:54 AM
This would herald the end of opt-in panel-based survey methods, since like Gresham's law or Akerlof's market for lemons, without being able to distinguish between real and fake respondents, fake respondents will drive the market price for real responses to zero.
Truth and *retribution* commission
i understand the prosecutor's concern but no retaliation means this will happen again
Trump will not just be four years of bad management. The culture of these organizations will be fucked for a long time. The pressure to retaliate and clean house will be strong, and no-one wants to work in a war zone.
November 18, 2025 at 1:57 AM
Truth and *retribution* commission
Reposted by Yu-Ming Liou
this is what machiavelli called "public morality" vs "private morality." private morality judges interpersonal conduct and it is the language we are familiar with. public morality is about whether republics survive. machiavelli was an italian patriot. are you an american patriot?
November 17, 2025 at 9:55 PM
this is what machiavelli called "public morality" vs "private morality." private morality judges interpersonal conduct and it is the language we are familiar with. public morality is about whether republics survive. machiavelli was an italian patriot. are you an american patriot?
Reposted by Yu-Ming Liou
feels like how if you make your LLM racist it also becomes bad at programming
it’s pretty remarkable how every single facet of Nuzzi is universally awful all the way down to the little stuff of “I refuse to help manage an invasive species”
November 17, 2025 at 8:29 PM
feels like how if you make your LLM racist it also becomes bad at programming
🎶 In armed harms of an angel 🎶
I regret to inform you that Olivia Nuzzi's book appears to be Perfect
insane, stupid, comically overwritten, dishy, politically indefensible I cannot wait to get my hands on it I must accept this is who I am as a person at some deep level whether I like it or not www.vanityfair.com/news/story/o...
insane, stupid, comically overwritten, dishy, politically indefensible I cannot wait to get my hands on it I must accept this is who I am as a person at some deep level whether I like it or not www.vanityfair.com/news/story/o...
November 17, 2025 at 8:13 PM
🎶 In armed harms of an angel 🎶
Reposted by Yu-Ming Liou
Fascinating paper that used Cretaceous period geological formations as an instrumental variable by Acharya et al. (2016) that sort of blows up the idea that Southern Whites Are Like That Simply Because Of Voter Suppression
November 17, 2025 at 7:55 PM
Fascinating paper that used Cretaceous period geological formations as an instrumental variable by Acharya et al. (2016) that sort of blows up the idea that Southern Whites Are Like That Simply Because Of Voter Suppression
“Some high-cost metros have real issues.”
Economic and social opportunities are highly concentrated in those metros.
Sorry, I didn’t want to spend the rest of my life in suburban Ohio just because I grew up there.
Economic and social opportunities are highly concentrated in those metros.
Sorry, I didn’t want to spend the rest of my life in suburban Ohio just because I grew up there.
What, precisely, is the crisis? When will it be resolved? People have been talking about housing crises since the 80s. I agree that there’s a long-run upward drift in housing costs; I agree some high-cost metros have real issues. But what are we seeing right now that’s a nationwide crisis?
Stancil being a housing crisis denier is the darnedest thing
November 17, 2025 at 7:02 PM
“Some high-cost metros have real issues.”
Economic and social opportunities are highly concentrated in those metros.
Sorry, I didn’t want to spend the rest of my life in suburban Ohio just because I grew up there.
Economic and social opportunities are highly concentrated in those metros.
Sorry, I didn’t want to spend the rest of my life in suburban Ohio just because I grew up there.
Reposted by Yu-Ming Liou
Not a danish politics specialist but the Social Democrats losing Copenhagen because they are too right wing on immigration would be exactly what political scientists would expect.
Alienate core supporters in the diverse cities + chase rural voters who will be at best temporary allies = uh oh.
Alienate core supporters in the diverse cities + chase rural voters who will be at best temporary allies = uh oh.
November 17, 2025 at 1:34 PM
Not a danish politics specialist but the Social Democrats losing Copenhagen because they are too right wing on immigration would be exactly what political scientists would expect.
Alienate core supporters in the diverse cities + chase rural voters who will be at best temporary allies = uh oh.
Alienate core supporters in the diverse cities + chase rural voters who will be at best temporary allies = uh oh.