Brendan Nyhan

@brendannyhan.bsky.social

110K followers 4.3K following 9.4K posts

Dartmouth political scientist and Bright Line Watch co-director. Previously Upshot NYT / CJR contributor, Spinsanity co-founder, All the President's Spin co-author.

https://sites.dartmouth.edu/nyhan/
http://brightlinewatch.org .. more

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Brendan Nyhan is an American political scientist and professor at Dartmouth College. He is also a liberal to moderate political blogger, author, and political columnist. He was born in Mountain View, California and now lives in Hanover, New Hampshire. .. more

Political science 39%

Sociology 22%

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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 7d

My @nytimes.com op-ed: The Boomers Are Protesting Trump. Where Is Gen Z? www.nytimes.com/2025/11/24/o... (gift link)

The key point: "The absence of young people from conventional protests is both a problem and a warning."

Opinion | The Boomers Are Protesting Trump. Where Is Gen Z?

www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan, Michael Kevane

Bill Grueskin @bgrueskin.bsky.social · 58m

NYT:
Five officials told us that Hegseth had nothing to do with the second strike

Washpost (which broke the story 2 days ago):
“This is ‘protect Pete’ bullshit,”
and
“It’s throwing us, the service members, under the bus.”

At the White House on Monday, Karoline Leavitt, the press secretary, read a statement that said Mr. Hegseth had authorized the Special Operations commander overseeing the attack, Adm. Frank M. Bradley, “to conduct these kinetic strikes.”

She said that Admiral Bradley had “worked well within his authority and the law directing the engagement to ensure the boat was destroyed and the threat to the United States of America was eliminated.”

According to five U.S. officials, who spoke separately and on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter that is under investigation, Mr. Hegseth, ahead of the Sept. 2 attack, ordered a strike that would kill the people on the boat and destroy the vessel and its purported cargo of drugs.

But, each official said, Mr. Hegseth’s directive did not specifically address what should happen if a first missile turned out not to fully accomplish all of those things. And, the officials said, his order was not a response to surveillance footage showing that at least two people on the boat survived the first blast.

Admiral Bradley ordered the initial missile strike and then several follow-up strikes that killed the initial survivors and sank the disabled boat. As that operation unfolded, they said, Mr. Hegseth did not give any further orders to him.

Her scripted remarks at a news briefing elicited a furious backlash within the Defense Department, where officials described feeling angry at the uncertainty over whether Hegseth would take responsibility for his alleged role in the operation — or leave the military and civilian staff under him to face the consequences.

“This is ‘protect Pete’ bulls---,” one military official, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal conversations, told The Post.

Leavitt’s statement “left it up to interpretation” who was responsible for the second strike that killed the two survivors, a separate military official said, imploring the White House to provide clarity on the issue.

One official said of Leavitt’s statement, “It’s throwing us, the service members, under the bus.” Another person said some of Hegseth’s top civilian staff appeared deeply alarmed about the revelations and were contemplating whether to leave the administration.

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan

Max Berger @maxberger.bsky.social · 1h

Every sentence here is even crazier than the last.

Reposted by Melanie C. Green, David R. Miller

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 1h

Where we are as a country

During the Trump era, political violence has become an increasingly urgent problem.
www.newyorker.com/magazine/202...

At least 11 Indiana Republicans were targeted with threats or swatting attacks amid redistricting pressure from Trump
www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan, Joshua S. Weitz, Tom Clark , and 1 more Brendan Nyhan, Joshua S. Weitz, Tom Clark, Daxton R. Stewart

Steve Vladeck @stevevladeck.bsky.social · 1h

The end of academic freedom, Flowchart Edition.

Brendan Cantwell @cantb.bsky.social · 4h

TX Tech has a flow chat for guidance on what can be taught in the university system. Two things:
1. Very little content seems to be permitted. This is partisan control of the curriculum.
2. I would not enjoy teaching under these conditions, but I really would not want to be a Chair or Dean.

Flow chart from TX Tech memo showing that most class materials must be reviewed by chair, dean, and provost, and that all curricular material must be disclosed

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 2h

Remember No Labels? www.huffpost.com/entry/no-lab...

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan, Diane Ravitch, David Rothschild , and 4 more Brendan Nyhan, Diane Ravitch, David Rothschild, Michael Kevane, David R. Miller, Jason Lyall, Aviel Roshwald

Ron Filipkowski @ronfilipkowski.bsky.social · 2h

If Admiral Bradley didn’t realize before that these cowards were setting him up to take the fall, he knows it now. Time to hire a good lawyer.

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan, Dan Immergluck

Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 3h

Very interesting Gelman blog suggesting that a good amount of the "Mississippi Miracle" is selection bias (holding back lowest performers, who then don't take the 4th grade test) rather than improved learning

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/01/h...

How much of “Mississippi’s education miracle” is an artifact of selection bias? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 3h

And also bsky.app/profile/eckl...

Dean Eckles @eckles.bsky.social · 10h

I think they may not actually be statistically distinguishable. But not sure... Everything in the FBES papers is SD units so I'm not sure what the SE for affective polarization in points is.

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 3h

Another! bsky.app/profile/msav...

Martin Saveski @msaveski.bsky.social · 10h

Thanks for the shoutout! Obviously many possible reasons for the differences but my best guess is (i) content vs. user level intervention (i.e., reranking content likely to polarize) and (ii) much higher prevalence of political content on X (32% on X vs. 13.4% on FB). Curious to hear your thoughts.

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 3h

From one of the authors! bsky.app/profile/tizi...

Tiziano Piccardi @tiziano.bsky.social · 6h

Thanks! RE 2: I think the two results can coexist. The setup is different, i.e., intervention, moderation approach, participants' characteristics (strictly partisan, with >5% political content based on a pre-screening), and very polarizing events (assassination attempt and a candidate's withdrawal)

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan, Scott L. Greer, Rosemary A. Joyce , and 23 more Brendan Nyhan, Scott L. Greer, Rosemary A. Joyce, American Library Association, Gerry Canavan, Daniel S. Goldberg, Karen Benjamin Guzzo, Rebecca Tushnet, David R. Miller, Scott A. Imberman, Brian Keegan, William Myers, Zen Faulkes, Mark Rice, Christina Ho, Marcus Credé, Raúl Pacheco-Vega, Kathleen Kennedy, Daxton R. Stewart, Stephen A. Meserve, Stephen I. Vladeck, Dan Immergluck, Colin Woodard, Clark Gray, David Lay Williams, Jesse R. Lasky

Brendan Cantwell @cantb.bsky.social · 4h

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan

Tiziano Piccardi @tiziano.bsky.social · 6h

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan

Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 8h

This has been shared via a bunch of sites. It is worth noting that the report, relying on anonymous internal sources, seems to be coming from the right (complaints about ongoing Trump Derangement Syndrome, lack of Fox News, welcoming end of DEI).
nypost.com/2025/11/30/o...

Damning report labels FBI ‘rudderless ship’ under Kash Patel — with him and Dan Bongino more concerned with building ‘personal résumés’

FBI Director Kash Patel is facing withering criticism days after the White House denied media reports that the president is about to fire him.

nypost.com

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan

Daniel Drezner @dandrezner.bsky.social · 8h

Many folks On Here -- myself included -- complain about congressional passivity in the face of the Trump administration's myriad sins. But this story is a good example of how, sometimes, congressional resistance matters even when it is not directly observable. www.politico.com/news/2025/12...

Record-setting personnel issues are marring Trump’s second term

The president has nearly doubled Joe Biden’s mark for nominees withdrawn from the Senate in the first year.

www.politico.com

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan

Martin Saveski @msaveski.bsky.social · 10h

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan

Dean Eckles @eckles.bsky.social · 10h

I think they may not actually be statistically distinguishable. But not sure... Everything in the FBES papers is SD units so I'm not sure what the SE for affective polarization in points is.

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan

Tomás Arís @littlebridgetroll.bsky.social · 11h

@davekarpf.bsky.social , have you seen this fresh nonsense?

An independent effort says AI is the secret to topple 2-party power in Congress

Using artificial intelligence to identify congressional districts where independent candidates could win, an organization called the Independent Center is aiming to disrupt the two-party system.

www.npr.org

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan

Rick Hasen @rickhasen.bsky.social · 11h

Must Read Brendan Nyhan: “Where Are the Young People in the Fight For Democracy” electionlawblog.org?p=153285 @brendannyhan.bsky.social

Must Read Brendan Nyhan: "Where Are the Young People in the Fight For Democracy" #ELB

Important Brendan Nyhan NYT oped (with a different title online): One of the most notable and puzzling factors is the lack of young people. If you have participated in a “No Kings” protest or seen one...

electionlawblog.org

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 11h

The descent into mafia-style governance continues

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 11h

Gimenez on Hegseth: "These are anonymous whistleblowers saying something happened here, so I smell a rat. I'm pretty sure the Secretary of Defense had nothing to do w/something like that. It's just a way of distracting from what really happened in DC last week ... "

Reposted by Joshua A. Tucker

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 11h

New in Science: Reranking partisan animosity in algorithmic social media feeds alters affective polarization www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Key from @jennyallen.bsky.social @jatucker.bsky.social: (1) important new paradigm (2) but not clear why results differ
www.science.org/doi/full/10....

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan, David H. Kaye, Michael D. McDonald

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 11h

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 12h

Source: ogc.osd.mil/Portals/99/L...

ogc.osd.mil

Reposted by Trevon D. Logan

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 12h

"The requirement to refuse to comply with orders to commit law of war violations applies to orders to perform conduct that is clearly illegal or orders that the subordinate knows, in fact, are illegal. For example, orders to fire upon the shipwrecked would be clearly illegal."

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan

Jacob T. Levy @jacobtlevy.bsky.social · 12h

David Gentile and Juan Orlando Hernández get added to my list of examples of this; I never imagined the pardon power being used and abused in these ways.

"There is no such thing as financial fraud; there is no such thing as a right-wing politician anywhere in the world who is guilty of a crime."

Jacob T. Levy @jacobtlevy.bsky.social · Oct 18

Santos. Utterly predictable and completely unbelievable at the same time.

There are a lot of Trump’s abuses that use powers about which I can honestly say “I was always against presidents having that power,” but pardons and commutations weren’t among them. I never imagined.

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 12h

I'm proposing a ban on all "what ChatGPT told me" thinkpieces for eternity. Shoot them into the sun. AI is often amazing but it's not an oracle.
www.afterbabel.com/p/the-devils...

The Devil’s Plan to Ruin the Next Generation

I asked ChatGPT how it would destroy America’s youth. Its answers were unsettling — and all too familiar.

www.afterbabel.com

Reposted by Lisa W. Fazio, Brendan Nyhan, Alan Richardson , and 1 more Lisa W. Fazio, Brendan Nyhan, Alan Richardson, Nathan P. Kalmoe

Ryan Enos @ryanenos.bsky.social · 13h

Universities can't function if they're constantly running scared of an online cancel factory and spineless politicians who won't push back. Should this student have received a bad grade? Don't know. Should the governor of the state be commenting on it? Absolutely not. www.oudaily.com/news/ou-stat...

OU puts graduate instructor on leave after student claims discrimination on Bible-based essay grade

OU placed a graduate student instructor on leave after a student publicly contested a grade and filed an illegal discrimination claim after she received a failing grade on an essay

www.oudaily.com

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan, Philip N. Cohen, Christine Kooi , and 2 more Brendan Nyhan, Philip N. Cohen, Christine Kooi, Sam Kamin, Paul Franco

Anthony Michael Kreis @anthonymkreis.bsky.social · 13h

This won’t be a popular opinion, but I don’t think the instructor was right here. The assignment said that the goal was for students to demonstrate they completed the readings *and* they could do so by reflecting on, among other things, their personal experiences. www.oudaily.com/news/ou-stat...