Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
Emeritus Professor of Economics, Oxford University.
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
Distributional analysis published alongside the Budget shows that the poorest will benefit most from the measures - particularly due to welfare and public service improvements.
Source: www.gov.uk/government/p...
Source: www.gov.uk/government/p...
November 26, 2025 at 2:12 PM
Distributional analysis published alongside the Budget shows that the poorest will benefit most from the measures - particularly due to welfare and public service improvements.
Source: www.gov.uk/government/p...
Source: www.gov.uk/government/p...
Y'days post: Expertise, Government, the Media and Covid mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/expe...
Why did the media hold Johnson to account for allowing lockdown parties in No.10, but did not hold him to account for allowing tens of thousands of preventable deaths from Covid?
Why did the media hold Johnson to account for allowing lockdown parties in No.10, but did not hold him to account for allowing tens of thousands of preventable deaths from Covid?
Expertise, Government, the Media and Covid
It is now generally (although not universally) accepted that those of us who campaigned vigorously against the government’s auster...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
November 26, 2025 at 8:59 AM
Y'days post: Expertise, Government, the Media and Covid mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/expe...
Why did the media hold Johnson to account for allowing lockdown parties in No.10, but did not hold him to account for allowing tens of thousands of preventable deaths from Covid?
Why did the media hold Johnson to account for allowing lockdown parties in No.10, but did not hold him to account for allowing tens of thousands of preventable deaths from Covid?
This is very good. We need to tax wealth and raise taxes on middle earners.
My pre-budget take for the LSE Politics blog is up:
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Wealth tax and looser fiscal rules won’t save the Budget | British Politics and Policy at LSE
The narrative on the left that a wealth tax and looser fiscal rules would solve the Chancellor's 2025 Budget headaches has got out of hand.
blogs.lse.ac.uk
November 25, 2025 at 6:04 PM
This is very good. We need to tax wealth and raise taxes on middle earners.
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
absolutely batshit insane for a government to drag out the fuel duty "freeze" (annual tax cut) even further
When can you declare an emergency over?
The 5p “emergency” petrol tax cut was introduced in March 2022, to offset a spike in prices
They are now about 30p down on that month, & about 50p down on the absolute peak
The 5p “emergency” petrol tax cut was introduced in March 2022, to offset a spike in prices
They are now about 30p down on that month, & about 50p down on the absolute peak
November 25, 2025 at 4:37 PM
absolutely batshit insane for a government to drag out the fuel duty "freeze" (annual tax cut) even further
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
"Much of the left appears to have convinced itself that wealth tax is all that is needed. This is incorrect — and an incessant focus on wealth taxation is obscuring the need for broader tax increases." Clear and interesting piece by @jomichell.bsky.social:
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Wealth tax and looser fiscal rules won’t save the Budget | British Politics and Policy at LSE
The narrative on the left that a wealth tax and looser fiscal rules would solve the Chancellor's 2025 Budget headaches has got out of hand.
blogs.lse.ac.uk
November 25, 2025 at 5:03 PM
"Much of the left appears to have convinced itself that wealth tax is all that is needed. This is incorrect — and an incessant focus on wealth taxation is obscuring the need for broader tax increases." Clear and interesting piece by @jomichell.bsky.social:
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
Excellent and very important blogpost.
New post: Expertise, Government, the Media and Covid
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/expe...
The Covid inquiry shows not just political failure on a deadly scale, but of media failure to transmit expertise and to hold to account politicians that let tens of thousands die unnecessarily.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/expe...
The Covid inquiry shows not just political failure on a deadly scale, but of media failure to transmit expertise and to hold to account politicians that let tens of thousands die unnecessarily.
Expertise, Government, the Media and Covid
It is now generally (although not universally) accepted that those of us who campaigned vigorously against the government’s auster...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
November 25, 2025 at 11:18 AM
Excellent and very important blogpost.
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
November 25, 2025 at 9:26 AM
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
"If political journalists are invariably going on about how a policy plays with the electorate, rather than whether the policy works, don’t be surprised if politicians begin to worry less about whether policies will actually work."
New post: Expertise, Government, the Media and Covid
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/expe...
The Covid inquiry shows not just political failure on a deadly scale, but of media failure to transmit expertise and to hold to account politicians that let tens of thousands die unnecessarily.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/expe...
The Covid inquiry shows not just political failure on a deadly scale, but of media failure to transmit expertise and to hold to account politicians that let tens of thousands die unnecessarily.
Expertise, Government, the Media and Covid
It is now generally (although not universally) accepted that those of us who campaigned vigorously against the government’s auster...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
November 25, 2025 at 9:07 AM
"If political journalists are invariably going on about how a policy plays with the electorate, rather than whether the policy works, don’t be surprised if politicians begin to worry less about whether policies will actually work."
New post: Expertise, Government, the Media and Covid
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/expe...
The Covid inquiry shows not just political failure on a deadly scale, but of media failure to transmit expertise and to hold to account politicians that let tens of thousands die unnecessarily.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/expe...
The Covid inquiry shows not just political failure on a deadly scale, but of media failure to transmit expertise and to hold to account politicians that let tens of thousands die unnecessarily.
Expertise, Government, the Media and Covid
It is now generally (although not universally) accepted that those of us who campaigned vigorously against the government’s auster...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
November 25, 2025 at 9:00 AM
New post: Expertise, Government, the Media and Covid
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/expe...
The Covid inquiry shows not just political failure on a deadly scale, but of media failure to transmit expertise and to hold to account politicians that let tens of thousands die unnecessarily.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/expe...
The Covid inquiry shows not just political failure on a deadly scale, but of media failure to transmit expertise and to hold to account politicians that let tens of thousands die unnecessarily.
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
Brutal
Robbie Gibb describes the BBC's Political Editor Chris Mason as the "unsung hero of covering politics" and "absolutely first rate"
November 24, 2025 at 9:12 PM
Brutal
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
I have taken an hour out to have a look at the CPS's attack on our current fiscal rules.
I am mostly confused about what they want.
freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2025/11/24/w...
I am mostly confused about what they want.
freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2025/11/24/w...
what, the fiscal rules, again?
The conventional wisdom, at least of the sort of crowd I hang out with, is that there is nothing wrong with the fiscal rules, nor with the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) that measures polic…
freethinkecon.wordpress.com
November 24, 2025 at 3:32 PM
I have taken an hour out to have a look at the CPS's attack on our current fiscal rules.
I am mostly confused about what they want.
freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2025/11/24/w...
I am mostly confused about what they want.
freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2025/11/24/w...
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
This focuses on politics. But we should also care about *outcomes*.
In the UK, migrants (both from EU and elsewhere) are more likely to have a job than the UK born. In Denmark, there's a gap of 15-20%. Similarly for education outcomes.
Why would we want to copy that?
In the UK, migrants (both from EU and elsewhere) are more likely to have a job than the UK born. In Denmark, there's a gap of 15-20%. Similarly for education outcomes.
Why would we want to copy that?
After more than 10 years of “the Danish Model”, nativism is hegemonic in the country, the far right polls near level highs again, and the Social Democrats lost Copenhagen and poll at historic low.
European Social Democrats should look at the facts, not the myths!
Me in @theguardian.com
European Social Democrats should look at the facts, not the myths!
Me in @theguardian.com
The ‘Danish model’ is the darling of centre-left parties like Labour. The problem is, it doesn’t even work in Denmark | Cas Mudde
This week’s local elections are the latest reminder that when social democrats move rightwards, they’re making a mistake, says academic and author Cas Mudde
www.theguardian.com
November 23, 2025 at 10:31 AM
This focuses on politics. But we should also care about *outcomes*.
In the UK, migrants (both from EU and elsewhere) are more likely to have a job than the UK born. In Denmark, there's a gap of 15-20%. Similarly for education outcomes.
Why would we want to copy that?
In the UK, migrants (both from EU and elsewhere) are more likely to have a job than the UK born. In Denmark, there's a gap of 15-20%. Similarly for education outcomes.
Why would we want to copy that?
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
Hmmm - so tacking hard right on immigration led the Danish equivalent of Labour to lose the capital city for the first time in a century to a “Green-Left” party?
And all the seats on London’s borough councils are up next May? Including the progressive packed ones held by Labour for generations?
And all the seats on London’s borough councils are up next May? Including the progressive packed ones held by Labour for generations?
November 22, 2025 at 11:46 AM
Hmmm - so tacking hard right on immigration led the Danish equivalent of Labour to lose the capital city for the first time in a century to a “Green-Left” party?
And all the seats on London’s borough councils are up next May? Including the progressive packed ones held by Labour for generations?
And all the seats on London’s borough councils are up next May? Including the progressive packed ones held by Labour for generations?
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
The reality that I think increasingly dawns is that none of A, B or C are tenable answers. Which unfortunately suggests it is
D) To signal hostility in the hope that people with anti-migration views will see this as them being 'tough'.
D) To signal hostility in the hope that people with anti-migration views will see this as them being 'tough'.
Mahmood/government should say explain *objective* of increasing time to settlement for 15 years for care workers who arrived 2022-24
Is it
A) to get them to leave? Why?
B) to save money? Then why not just restrict benefits?
C) to "encourage integration"? How? Will do opposite.
Is it
A) to get them to leave? Why?
B) to save money? Then why not just restrict benefits?
C) to "encourage integration"? How? Will do opposite.
15 years for people in medium skilled jobs and care workers too. I believe this goes down to 10 years if they earn over £50,270. Someone in a high skilled job earning over that qualifies in 5 years.
November 21, 2025 at 3:39 PM
The reality that I think increasingly dawns is that none of A, B or C are tenable answers. Which unfortunately suggests it is
D) To signal hostility in the hope that people with anti-migration views will see this as them being 'tough'.
D) To signal hostility in the hope that people with anti-migration views will see this as them being 'tough'.
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
"Trans people could be asked about whether they should be accessing single-sex services based on their physical appearance."
No. not "trans people". ANYONE. This moral panic leads inexorably to the policing of women based on their appearance deemed to be "unfeminine".
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
No. not "trans people". ANYONE. This moral panic leads inexorably to the policing of women based on their appearance deemed to be "unfeminine".
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Trans people could be barred from services based on appearance
The new code of practice on access to single-sex services cannot gain legal force until it gets sign-off from ministers.
www.bbc.co.uk
November 21, 2025 at 3:36 PM
"Trans people could be asked about whether they should be accessing single-sex services based on their physical appearance."
No. not "trans people". ANYONE. This moral panic leads inexorably to the policing of women based on their appearance deemed to be "unfeminine".
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
No. not "trans people". ANYONE. This moral panic leads inexorably to the policing of women based on their appearance deemed to be "unfeminine".
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
This weeks post: Blue Labour’s Electoral Fallacies mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/blue...
If a Labour government sounds and acts like a slightly milder version of a Reform government, this is going to put off nearly all Labour voters, including those in Labour marginal seats.
If a Labour government sounds and acts like a slightly milder version of a Reform government, this is going to put off nearly all Labour voters, including those in Labour marginal seats.
Blue Labour’s Electoral Fallacies
The government’s latest proposed revamp of asylum laws reminds us that Labour have not abandoned their approach of using right wing popul...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
November 20, 2025 at 8:48 AM
This weeks post: Blue Labour’s Electoral Fallacies mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/blue...
If a Labour government sounds and acts like a slightly milder version of a Reform government, this is going to put off nearly all Labour voters, including those in Labour marginal seats.
If a Labour government sounds and acts like a slightly milder version of a Reform government, this is going to put off nearly all Labour voters, including those in Labour marginal seats.
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
Eh? How on earth is this your headline, BBC News website, when surely the main finding of the report is that tens of thousands of people died unnecessarily because, on more than one occasion and for all sorts of reasons (complacency, toxic culture etc.), those in charge didn't lockdown early enough?
Covid inquiry: Lockdown could have been avoided and other key findings
The long-awaited report is published into how well or badly the government handled the Covid pandemic.
www.bbc.co.uk
November 20, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Eh? How on earth is this your headline, BBC News website, when surely the main finding of the report is that tens of thousands of people died unnecessarily because, on more than one occasion and for all sorts of reasons (complacency, toxic culture etc.), those in charge didn't lockdown early enough?
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
This government has not taken a single meaningful step to tackle the causes of the horrendous inefficiencies in the criminal justice system, instead rushing to dismantle trial by jury.
Legal professionals have offered numerous alternatives to address the backlog.
Ministers are not listening.
Legal professionals have offered numerous alternatives to address the backlog.
Ministers are not listening.
MoJ to remove right to trial by jury for thousands of cases in controversial overhaul
MoJ to remove right to trial by jury for thousands of cases in controversial overhaul
Exclusive: Courts minister says change needed to stop criminals opting for juries to delay cases, sometimes by years, and clear huge backlog
*
UK politics live – latest updates
Criminals will be stopped from “gaming the system” by choosing trial by jury in order to increase the chances of proceedings collapsing, the courts minister has said, promising to enact radical changes to limit jury trials by the next election.
Drug dealers and career criminals were “laughing in the dock” knowing cases can take years to come to trial, Sarah Sackman told the Guardian, saying inaction would be a road to “chaos and ruin”. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
November 21, 2025 at 7:57 AM
This government has not taken a single meaningful step to tackle the causes of the horrendous inefficiencies in the criminal justice system, instead rushing to dismantle trial by jury.
Legal professionals have offered numerous alternatives to address the backlog.
Ministers are not listening.
Legal professionals have offered numerous alternatives to address the backlog.
Ministers are not listening.
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
"so deep was the fiscal crisis that public spending was cut and taxes on the rich went up. The result is that Britain’s top 10 per cent is the only segment paying more in taxes today than in 2010" on.ft.com/4a6clNL
if this were more widely understood, Reeves' job would be somewhat easier
if this were more widely understood, Reeves' job would be somewhat easier
Britain’s tax system combines the worst of the US and Scandinavia
The UK’s experiment in eating the rich while shrinking the state has left everyone worse off
on.ft.com
November 21, 2025 at 6:38 AM
"so deep was the fiscal crisis that public spending was cut and taxes on the rich went up. The result is that Britain’s top 10 per cent is the only segment paying more in taxes today than in 2010" on.ft.com/4a6clNL
if this were more widely understood, Reeves' job would be somewhat easier
if this were more widely understood, Reeves' job would be somewhat easier
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
Shabana Mahmood's proposal to stop being told to "go back home" is to send people "home". Her proposal to stop black and brown people from feeling like they don't belong, is to bake in to the immigration system that they will never belong.
November 20, 2025 at 5:15 PM
Shabana Mahmood's proposal to stop being told to "go back home" is to send people "home". Her proposal to stop black and brown people from feeling like they don't belong, is to bake in to the immigration system that they will never belong.
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
A very timely research project on the myth that bringing far-right parties into government coalitions will somehow “expose” them — a strategy that simply doesn’t work.
📣 New op-ed in Süddeutsche Zeitung: What the data say about the “Brandmauer”
I summarize key findings from a study with @anninahermes.bsky.social across 57 democracies
➡️ Far-right parties don’t get weaker in government, they get stronger (~6 points by the next election)
tinyurl.com/4j6jaud2
I summarize key findings from a study with @anninahermes.bsky.social across 57 democracies
➡️ Far-right parties don’t get weaker in government, they get stronger (~6 points by the next election)
tinyurl.com/4j6jaud2
Demokratie: Wenn die Rechte mitregiert, wird sie nicht geschwächt – im Gegenteil
Eine Untersuchung von 57 Ländern zeigt: Wenn die Rechte in Verantwortung kommt, gewinnt sie dazu. Daraus lässt sich für Deutschland lernen.
www.sueddeutsche.de
November 21, 2025 at 8:30 AM
A very timely research project on the myth that bringing far-right parties into government coalitions will somehow “expose” them — a strategy that simply doesn’t work.
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
Having Johnson & Cummings in Downing Street when Covid struck was, just like Brexit, an entirely avoidable disaster caused largely by utterly appalling journalism. And now exactly the same clowns, arses & bigots with bylines are rolling out the red carpet for Farage.
www.thetimes.com/article/1b15...
www.thetimes.com/article/1b15...
Covid inquiry live: ‘Inexcusable’ delays under Johnson led to 23,000 deaths
Lockdowns may have been avoided if Boris Johnson’s government had acted faster, damning report finds
www.thetimes.com
November 20, 2025 at 5:14 PM
Having Johnson & Cummings in Downing Street when Covid struck was, just like Brexit, an entirely avoidable disaster caused largely by utterly appalling journalism. And now exactly the same clowns, arses & bigots with bylines are rolling out the red carpet for Farage.
www.thetimes.com/article/1b15...
www.thetimes.com/article/1b15...
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
Worse still, the increase in time spent alone has been especially steep among this economically and socially dislocated group.
*Seven hours* of daily free time spent completely solitary in the most recent US data.
My column from last week in full: www.ft.com/content/bd61...
*Seven hours* of daily free time spent completely solitary in the most recent US data.
My column from last week in full: www.ft.com/content/bd61...
Young adults are growing increasingly economically dislocated
A disconnected class is taking shape, but is absent from the headline statistics
www.ft.com
November 20, 2025 at 10:25 AM
Worse still, the increase in time spent alone has been especially steep among this economically and socially dislocated group.
*Seven hours* of daily free time spent completely solitary in the most recent US data.
My column from last week in full: www.ft.com/content/bd61...
*Seven hours* of daily free time spent completely solitary in the most recent US data.
My column from last week in full: www.ft.com/content/bd61...
Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis
More on the Labour Government's disastrous (for them and us) policies👇
This weeks post: Blue Labour’s Electoral Fallacies mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/blue...
If a Labour government sounds and acts like a slightly milder version of a Reform government, this is going to put off nearly all Labour voters, including those in Labour marginal seats.
If a Labour government sounds and acts like a slightly milder version of a Reform government, this is going to put off nearly all Labour voters, including those in Labour marginal seats.
Blue Labour’s Electoral Fallacies
The government’s latest proposed revamp of asylum laws reminds us that Labour have not abandoned their approach of using right wing popul...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
November 20, 2025 at 9:52 AM
More on the Labour Government's disastrous (for them and us) policies👇