James Bowes
@jamesbowes01.bsky.social
Revised net migration projection based on yesterday’s data, the new ILR policy and an expected gradual decline in dependant numbers (Currently dependant applications are double main applicant applications for work visas but this won’t last).
Yes it is negative in 2026. Roughly -110,000 to -10,000.
Yes it is negative in 2026. Roughly -110,000 to -10,000.
November 28, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Revised net migration projection based on yesterday’s data, the new ILR policy and an expected gradual decline in dependant numbers (Currently dependant applications are double main applicant applications for work visas but this won’t last).
Yes it is negative in 2026. Roughly -110,000 to -10,000.
Yes it is negative in 2026. Roughly -110,000 to -10,000.
Reposted by James Bowes
📉 The ONS has published stats that say net migration to UK drops 69% year on year
🤓 But we already knew that thanks to @jamesbowes01.bsky.social
You can read his piece predicting the collapse in net migration and its economic and political consequences here 👇
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
🤓 But we already knew that thanks to @jamesbowes01.bsky.social
You can read his piece predicting the collapse in net migration and its economic and political consequences here 👇
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
The coming collapse in immigration to the United Kingdom - UK in a changing Europe
James Bowes analyses the fall in net migration to the UK as a result of government policies and explores some of the political and economic consequences.
ukandeu.ac.uk
November 27, 2025 at 12:12 PM
📉 The ONS has published stats that say net migration to UK drops 69% year on year
🤓 But we already knew that thanks to @jamesbowes01.bsky.social
You can read his piece predicting the collapse in net migration and its economic and political consequences here 👇
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
🤓 But we already knew that thanks to @jamesbowes01.bsky.social
You can read his piece predicting the collapse in net migration and its economic and political consequences here 👇
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
Graduate visa numbers are falling now. Including dependants, half as many grants in Q3 2025 as in Q3 2024. Mainly because of the fall in international student numbers.
November 27, 2025 at 10:49 AM
Graduate visa numbers are falling now. Including dependants, half as many grants in Q3 2025 as in Q3 2024. Mainly because of the fall in international student numbers.
The scary thing is that the model I used in the article gave a figure of 323,000 because I didn’t know about the increased emigration of British nationals.
Adjusted to take that into account, it gives 237,000 which isn’t far off.
I’m still trying to work out how to model the harsher ILR changes.
Adjusted to take that into account, it gives 237,000 which isn’t far off.
I’m still trying to work out how to model the harsher ILR changes.
Though I have to say, much as @jamesbowes01.bsky.social predicted on the @ukandeu.bsky.social site recently 😉https://ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-collapse-in-immigration/
The coming collapse in immigration to the United Kingdom - UK in a changing Europe
James Bowes analyses the fall in net migration to the UK as a result of government policies and explores some of the political and economic consequences.
ukandeu.ac.uk
November 27, 2025 at 10:07 AM
The scary thing is that the model I used in the article gave a figure of 323,000 because I didn’t know about the increased emigration of British nationals.
Adjusted to take that into account, it gives 237,000 which isn’t far off.
I’m still trying to work out how to model the harsher ILR changes.
Adjusted to take that into account, it gives 237,000 which isn’t far off.
I’m still trying to work out how to model the harsher ILR changes.
Reposted by James Bowes
New govt settlement plans are tougher than most voters prefer. Half say graduate-level migrants should qualify within 5 years; 53% want mid-skilled to wait under 10 years. Only 21% back a 15-year wait for low-skilled workers—many think it should be 5 years or less.
November 27, 2025 at 7:44 AM
New govt settlement plans are tougher than most voters prefer. Half say graduate-level migrants should qualify within 5 years; 53% want mid-skilled to wait under 10 years. Only 21% back a 15-year wait for low-skilled workers—many think it should be 5 years or less.
Reposted by James Bowes
Labour really has a problem understanding that immigrants are people; and people plan their lives according to the rules that apply to them. You cannot just change the rules retrospectively, and you definitely cannot do so and claim you're doing it in the name of fairness.
November 27, 2025 at 6:48 AM
Labour really has a problem understanding that immigrants are people; and people plan their lives according to the rules that apply to them. You cannot just change the rules retrospectively, and you definitely cannot do so and claim you're doing it in the name of fairness.
Reposted by James Bowes
Today's immigration statistics (at 930) will likely show a further steep fall.
@jamesbowes01.bsky.social explains why.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
@jamesbowes01.bsky.social explains why.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
The coming collapse in immigration to the United Kingdom - UK in a changing Europe
James Bowes analyses the fall in net migration to the UK as a result of government policies and explores some of the political and economic consequences.
ukandeu.ac.uk
November 27, 2025 at 7:13 AM
Today's immigration statistics (at 930) will likely show a further steep fall.
@jamesbowes01.bsky.social explains why.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
@jamesbowes01.bsky.social explains why.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
Net migration figures for year ending June 2025 come out tomorrow. I’m expecting roughly 250,000 but remember this is before any of the immigration restrictions in the White Paper and before the emigration of graduate visa holders peaks. So net migration will fall far further than this.
November 26, 2025 at 8:56 PM
Net migration figures for year ending June 2025 come out tomorrow. I’m expecting roughly 250,000 but remember this is before any of the immigration restrictions in the White Paper and before the emigration of graduate visa holders peaks. So net migration will fall far further than this.
Reposted by James Bowes
Even if they reward top talent or new applicants from abroad with faster settlement times, why should they trust the immigration system when the goalposts can be moved at any time? It’s the precedent being set that makes the UK a very bad option for anyone outside looking in.
November 26, 2025 at 11:46 AM
Even if they reward top talent or new applicants from abroad with faster settlement times, why should they trust the immigration system when the goalposts can be moved at any time? It’s the precedent being set that makes the UK a very bad option for anyone outside looking in.
The top companies sponsoring work visas for people earning over £50,000 in 2024 (excluding health and care). Green is mostly skilled worker visa, blue mostly global business mobility visa and purple mostly temporary workers. Lots of finance, consulting and tech multinationals.
November 23, 2025 at 10:43 AM
The top companies sponsoring work visas for people earning over £50,000 in 2024 (excluding health and care). Green is mostly skilled worker visa, blue mostly global business mobility visa and purple mostly temporary workers. Lots of finance, consulting and tech multinationals.
The new ILR changes mean people on work visas doing jobs at a graduate level qualify for ILR in 3-10 years (depending on salary), but the vast majority of people in jobs below graduate level have to wait 15 years. This is the region of origin of people by skill level for visa grants Oct 24-Jun 25.
November 22, 2025 at 6:20 PM
The new ILR changes mean people on work visas doing jobs at a graduate level qualify for ILR in 3-10 years (depending on salary), but the vast majority of people in jobs below graduate level have to wait 15 years. This is the region of origin of people by skill level for visa grants Oct 24-Jun 25.
Reposted by James Bowes
Why the Home Office’s “earned settlement” proposals are anti-women
1. Dependants are hit hardest, and most dependants in Skilled Worker families are women. They are pushed onto a 10-year route with no acceleration.
1. Dependants are hit hardest, and most dependants in Skilled Worker families are women. They are pushed onto a 10-year route with no acceleration.
November 22, 2025 at 7:14 AM
Why the Home Office’s “earned settlement” proposals are anti-women
1. Dependants are hit hardest, and most dependants in Skilled Worker families are women. They are pushed onto a 10-year route with no acceleration.
1. Dependants are hit hardest, and most dependants in Skilled Worker families are women. They are pushed onto a 10-year route with no acceleration.
Data for high skilled workers entering on a skilled worker visa on pay year ending June 2023. It’s likely they will have had a pay rise since but still looks like a sizeable minority will be pushed onto the 10 year route. Especially engineers, vets, graphic designers and web designers. (1/2)
November 21, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Data for high skilled workers entering on a skilled worker visa on pay year ending June 2023. It’s likely they will have had a pay rise since but still looks like a sizeable minority will be pushed onto the 10 year route. Especially engineers, vets, graphic designers and web designers. (1/2)
Reposted by James Bowes
These comments by @danielsohege.bsky.social are unfortunately pitch-perfect. The idea that the UK is the Chocolate Factory and that there aren't other countries out there in dire need of nurses, doctors, teachers, carers, and so forth is delusional - and it's going to be too late when people realise
All those people, including current government, who falsely claim migrants are to blame for failings with the NHS, along with infrastructure in general, are in for one hell of a shock with how much worse things will get with Labour's anti-immigration policies.
www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
Overseas-trained doctors leaving the UK in record numbers
Medical bodies warn that hostility towards migrants is behind a 26% rise in departures last year that imperils NHS
www.theguardian.com
November 21, 2025 at 9:52 AM
These comments by @danielsohege.bsky.social are unfortunately pitch-perfect. The idea that the UK is the Chocolate Factory and that there aren't other countries out there in dire need of nurses, doctors, teachers, carers, and so forth is delusional - and it's going to be too late when people realise
Reposted by James Bowes
NHS transitioning from becoming a destination workplace to becoming the largest finishing school for the health systems of Aus, Canada, NZ, the gulf states...
November 21, 2025 at 7:48 AM
NHS transitioning from becoming a destination workplace to becoming the largest finishing school for the health systems of Aus, Canada, NZ, the gulf states...
Does anyone know if time as a student or on the graduate visa will count towards the time required to obtain citizenship under the new rules?
November 20, 2025 at 4:21 PM
Does anyone know if time as a student or on the graduate visa will count towards the time required to obtain citizenship under the new rules?
To qualify for ILR in 5 years you’ll need work in a graduate level job and either earn over £50,270 or be in a named public sector job (eg doctor, nurse, teacher). £125,140 qualifies you in 3 years.
Shockingly a 15 year route will apply for people in medium skilled jobs or care workers.
Shockingly a 15 year route will apply for people in medium skilled jobs or care workers.
November 20, 2025 at 1:23 PM
To qualify for ILR in 5 years you’ll need work in a graduate level job and either earn over £50,270 or be in a named public sector job (eg doctor, nurse, teacher). £125,140 qualifies you in 3 years.
Shockingly a 15 year route will apply for people in medium skilled jobs or care workers.
Shockingly a 15 year route will apply for people in medium skilled jobs or care workers.
If 60% of nurses are considering leaving over these changes then it could be even higher in other occupations. Healthcare workers have more secure jobs and lower fees than people working in other industries, including crucially no NHS surcharge.
Today’s anouncement is going to be devastating.
“Keir Starmer has vowed to curb net migration, with plans to force migrants to wait as long as 10 years to apply to settle in the UK instead of automatically gaining settled status after five years.”
www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
“Keir Starmer has vowed to curb net migration, with plans to force migrants to wait as long as 10 years to apply to settle in the UK instead of automatically gaining settled status after five years.”
www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
Up to 50,000 nurses could quit UK over immigration plans, survey suggests
Exclusive: union leaders say proposed changes are immoral and could threaten patient safety if there is staff exodus
www.theguardian.com
November 20, 2025 at 10:56 AM
If 60% of nurses are considering leaving over these changes then it could be even higher in other occupations. Healthcare workers have more secure jobs and lower fees than people working in other industries, including crucially no NHS surcharge.
Updated net migration projection after yesterday‘s update on British citizens emigrating and the lower than expected number of work visa applications in October.
I expect dependant numbers to fall further and we haven’t yet seen the new policies on ILR or salary thresholds so this may fall further.
I expect dependant numbers to fall further and we haven’t yet seen the new policies on ILR or salary thresholds so this may fall further.
November 19, 2025 at 2:18 PM
Updated net migration projection after yesterday‘s update on British citizens emigrating and the lower than expected number of work visa applications in October.
I expect dependant numbers to fall further and we haven’t yet seen the new policies on ILR or salary thresholds so this may fall further.
I expect dependant numbers to fall further and we haven’t yet seen the new policies on ILR or salary thresholds so this may fall further.
It’s worth noting that the majority of refugees who’ve arrived since 2005 will be affected by this as they don’t have ILR or citizenship yet. Numbers were high in the early 90s and early 2000s but were otherwise low until recently.
Keir Starmer's spokesman insisted on Monday that "clearly these changes will not be retrospective" for those already granted asylum, as Reform have been demanding.
Now we learn they will be
inews.co.uk/news/politic...
Now we learn they will be
inews.co.uk/news/politic...
November 19, 2025 at 12:48 PM
It’s worth noting that the majority of refugees who’ve arrived since 2005 will be affected by this as they don’t have ILR or citizenship yet. Numbers were high in the early 90s and early 2000s but were otherwise low until recently.
Reposted by James Bowes
Net migration now estimated to have fallen from 944,000 to 345,000 in Dec ‘24.
Some projections even suggest David Cameron’s old target of “tens of thousands” could be met. ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
Some projections even suggest David Cameron’s old target of “tens of thousands” could be met. ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
The coming collapse in immigration to the United Kingdom - UK in a changing Europe
James Bowes analyses the fall in net migration to the UK as a result of government policies and explores some of the political and economic consequences.
ukandeu.ac.uk
November 18, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Net migration now estimated to have fallen from 944,000 to 345,000 in Dec ‘24.
Some projections even suggest David Cameron’s old target of “tens of thousands” could be met. ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
Some projections even suggest David Cameron’s old target of “tens of thousands” could be met. ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
Between this and the lower than expected number of work visa applications in October, it looks like net migration will fall much lower than I predicted (Which was 70,000-170,000 for 2026).
Net migration was 345,000 in 2024, the Office for National Statistics now estimates - 20% lower than its first estimate of 431,000: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula.... The update includes much higher emigration of British citizens than previously thought.
Improving long-term international migration statistics, updating our methods and estimates - Office for National Statistics
Headline findings and revised estimates from updated data and new methods to estimate long-term international migration of British and EU+ nationals. These are official statistics in development.
www.ons.gov.uk
November 18, 2025 at 10:46 AM
Between this and the lower than expected number of work visa applications in October, it looks like net migration will fall much lower than I predicted (Which was 70,000-170,000 for 2026).
Reposted by James Bowes
MAJOR UPDATE:
Shabana Mahmood has confirmed that there will be an announcement on the earned-settlement (ILR) consultation later this week.
Oh dear God, help us—Skilled Workers, healthcare workers, care workers, BNOs and everyone who came to the UK in good faith under the five-year route to ILR.
Shabana Mahmood has confirmed that there will be an announcement on the earned-settlement (ILR) consultation later this week.
Oh dear God, help us—Skilled Workers, healthcare workers, care workers, BNOs and everyone who came to the UK in good faith under the five-year route to ILR.
November 17, 2025 at 8:20 PM
MAJOR UPDATE:
Shabana Mahmood has confirmed that there will be an announcement on the earned-settlement (ILR) consultation later this week.
Oh dear God, help us—Skilled Workers, healthcare workers, care workers, BNOs and everyone who came to the UK in good faith under the five-year route to ILR.
Shabana Mahmood has confirmed that there will be an announcement on the earned-settlement (ILR) consultation later this week.
Oh dear God, help us—Skilled Workers, healthcare workers, care workers, BNOs and everyone who came to the UK in good faith under the five-year route to ILR.
Reposted by James Bowes
Labour is a “godsend” for Farage says the far-right.
November 16, 2025 at 7:11 AM
Labour is a “godsend” for Farage says the far-right.
Reposted by James Bowes
There is a significant amount of secondary asylum seeking across Europe. Towards the UK has been a tenth of this (2019). (It could rise - for example, if there was data sharing across countries & we were not part of that. 2024-25 patterns show it is unlikely to be for reasons the Home Sec gives)
November 15, 2025 at 8:19 AM
There is a significant amount of secondary asylum seeking across Europe. Towards the UK has been a tenth of this (2019). (It could rise - for example, if there was data sharing across countries & we were not part of that. 2024-25 patterns show it is unlikely to be for reasons the Home Sec gives)