James Bowes
@jamesbowes01.bsky.social
Revised net migration projection based on yesterday’s data, the new ILR policy and an expected gradual decline in dependant numbers (Currently dependant applications are double main applicant applications for work visas but this won’t last).
Yes it is negative in 2026. Roughly -110,000 to -10,000.
Yes it is negative in 2026. Roughly -110,000 to -10,000.
November 28, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Revised net migration projection based on yesterday’s data, the new ILR policy and an expected gradual decline in dependant numbers (Currently dependant applications are double main applicant applications for work visas but this won’t last).
Yes it is negative in 2026. Roughly -110,000 to -10,000.
Yes it is negative in 2026. Roughly -110,000 to -10,000.
Graduate visa numbers are falling now. Including dependants, half as many grants in Q3 2025 as in Q3 2024. Mainly because of the fall in international student numbers.
November 27, 2025 at 10:49 AM
Graduate visa numbers are falling now. Including dependants, half as many grants in Q3 2025 as in Q3 2024. Mainly because of the fall in international student numbers.
We already have a rough idea of the scale of the fall today because of the fall in visa grants from the first half of 2024 to the first half of 2025.
But this will fall much further in future years.
media.ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/u...
But this will fall much further in future years.
media.ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/u...
November 27, 2025 at 7:52 AM
We already have a rough idea of the scale of the fall today because of the fall in visa grants from the first half of 2024 to the first half of 2025.
But this will fall much further in future years.
media.ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/u...
But this will fall much further in future years.
media.ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/u...
The top companies sponsoring work visas for people earning over £50,000 in 2024 (excluding health and care). Green is mostly skilled worker visa, blue mostly global business mobility visa and purple mostly temporary workers. Lots of finance, consulting and tech multinationals.
November 23, 2025 at 10:43 AM
The top companies sponsoring work visas for people earning over £50,000 in 2024 (excluding health and care). Green is mostly skilled worker visa, blue mostly global business mobility visa and purple mostly temporary workers. Lots of finance, consulting and tech multinationals.
The new ILR changes mean people on work visas doing jobs at a graduate level qualify for ILR in 3-10 years (depending on salary), but the vast majority of people in jobs below graduate level have to wait 15 years. This is the region of origin of people by skill level for visa grants Oct 24-Jun 25.
November 22, 2025 at 6:20 PM
The new ILR changes mean people on work visas doing jobs at a graduate level qualify for ILR in 3-10 years (depending on salary), but the vast majority of people in jobs below graduate level have to wait 15 years. This is the region of origin of people by skill level for visa grants Oct 24-Jun 25.
I only used the graduate level non public sector jobs here but most workers came to do jobs skilled below NQF level 6 and few are high paid. 4 jobs (most commonly sales accounts and business development managers) are likely to be downgraded to medium skilled (3/3)
November 21, 2025 at 11:58 AM
I only used the graduate level non public sector jobs here but most workers came to do jobs skilled below NQF level 6 and few are high paid. 4 jobs (most commonly sales accounts and business development managers) are likely to be downgraded to medium skilled (3/3)
Data for high skilled workers entering on a skilled worker visa on pay year ending June 2023. It’s likely they will have had a pay rise since but still looks like a sizeable minority will be pushed onto the 10 year route. Especially engineers, vets, graphic designers and web designers. (1/2)
November 21, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Data for high skilled workers entering on a skilled worker visa on pay year ending June 2023. It’s likely they will have had a pay rise since but still looks like a sizeable minority will be pushed onto the 10 year route. Especially engineers, vets, graphic designers and web designers. (1/2)
These are my assumptions. I increased 46,000 to 51,000 for the effects of the July changes based on October visa data and updated the 2024 figures but otherwise it’s the same as in my article.
November 19, 2025 at 2:48 PM
These are my assumptions. I increased 46,000 to 51,000 for the effects of the July changes based on October visa data and updated the 2024 figures but otherwise it’s the same as in my article.
Updated net migration projection after yesterday‘s update on British citizens emigrating and the lower than expected number of work visa applications in October.
I expect dependant numbers to fall further and we haven’t yet seen the new policies on ILR or salary thresholds so this may fall further.
I expect dependant numbers to fall further and we haven’t yet seen the new policies on ILR or salary thresholds so this may fall further.
November 19, 2025 at 2:18 PM
Updated net migration projection after yesterday‘s update on British citizens emigrating and the lower than expected number of work visa applications in October.
I expect dependant numbers to fall further and we haven’t yet seen the new policies on ILR or salary thresholds so this may fall further.
I expect dependant numbers to fall further and we haven’t yet seen the new policies on ILR or salary thresholds so this may fall further.
Absolutely, this is what happened in Germany.
November 18, 2025 at 8:24 PM
Absolutely, this is what happened in Germany.
It looks like it has started to fall from the peak but is still high. I guess it takes time as some of the people applying will have already been here a while. Long-term study visa grants shot up for some nationalities in Q2 of 2025 but this may reverse with the tougher scrutiny of study sponsors.
November 16, 2025 at 4:33 PM
It looks like it has started to fall from the peak but is still high. I guess it takes time as some of the people applying will have already been here a while. Long-term study visa grants shot up for some nationalities in Q2 of 2025 but this may reverse with the tougher scrutiny of study sponsors.
Part of the problem is we won’t see the full impact of the fall until May 2027 when the year ending 2026 figures come out. There’s a risk Labour look at net immigration of c. 300,000 in 2025 and say it’s still too high and cut further.
November 14, 2025 at 2:12 PM
Part of the problem is we won’t see the full impact of the fall until May 2027 when the year ending 2026 figures come out. There’s a risk Labour look at net immigration of c. 300,000 in 2025 and say it’s still too high and cut further.
An update on one of the graphs in my recent article about falling immigration. Visa applications have fallen further this month, suggesting the 46,000 fall in the white paper from the July changes was an underestimate. Even before an inevitable drop in dependant numbers over time.
November 13, 2025 at 10:18 AM
An update on one of the graphs in my recent article about falling immigration. Visa applications have fallen further this month, suggesting the 46,000 fall in the white paper from the July changes was an underestimate. Even before an inevitable drop in dependant numbers over time.
Here’s my net migration model projected forwards two years (plus past figures). Net migration actually looks like hovering at about 300,000 in 2025 before coming crashing down in 2026. The government must avoid the temptation to cut immigration even further when they see these figures. (1/2)
November 7, 2025 at 1:09 PM
Here’s my net migration model projected forwards two years (plus past figures). Net migration actually looks like hovering at about 300,000 in 2025 before coming crashing down in 2026. The government must avoid the temptation to cut immigration even further when they see these figures. (1/2)
This is how it looks as a time series. Obviously 2025 and 2026 are projections but the trend can be seen from data we already have.
November 5, 2025 at 5:18 PM
This is how it looks as a time series. Obviously 2025 and 2026 are projections but the trend can be seen from data we already have.
This is my projection for 2026. I can’t help but suspect I’m overestimating graduate visa switchers. I don’t have a better way to model this but if I am overestimating we‘re looking at more like net 50,000-150,000 in 2026. If not then the new entrant rate becomes ever more significant.
November 4, 2025 at 4:50 PM
This is my projection for 2026. I can’t help but suspect I’m overestimating graduate visa switchers. I don’t have a better way to model this but if I am overestimating we‘re looking at more like net 50,000-150,000 in 2026. If not then the new entrant rate becomes ever more significant.
55% of new skilled worker grants in 2024 were for people eligible for the new entrant discount. I know not everyone here will actually be using it, but it will still be a lot of people that get caught out after 4 years (minus time on the graduate visa).
November 2, 2025 at 12:06 PM
55% of new skilled worker grants in 2024 were for people eligible for the new entrant discount. I know not everyone here will actually be using it, but it will still be a lot of people that get caught out after 4 years (minus time on the graduate visa).
This isn’t something I included in my model by the way but looks like numbers are starting to fall. October 2025 is about half the level of October 2024.
November 1, 2025 at 12:28 PM
This isn’t something I included in my model by the way but looks like numbers are starting to fall. October 2025 is about half the level of October 2024.
A big fall in asylum seekers crossing the Channel by small boat in October relative to last year. This doesn’t look like a random fluctuation. Possible reasons include fewer people reaching Europe and the end of refugee family reunification putting people off coming.
October 31, 2025 at 4:15 PM
A big fall in asylum seekers crossing the Channel by small boat in October relative to last year. This doesn’t look like a random fluctuation. Possible reasons include fewer people reaching Europe and the end of refugee family reunification putting people off coming.
Obviously leaving the EU was a major factor in it being harder to attract workers from the EU but even if we’d stayed it would have gotten a lot harder for both demographic (low birth rate) and economic (rapidly growing economy in countries like Poland) reasons.
October 29, 2025 at 10:38 PM
Obviously leaving the EU was a major factor in it being harder to attract workers from the EU but even if we’d stayed it would have gotten a lot harder for both demographic (low birth rate) and economic (rapidly growing economy in countries like Poland) reasons.
Yes most work visa grants are in country to people who already have a work visa but are changing jobs. About a quarter of the in country work visa grants are to people switching from a student or graduate visa but nearly all of the rest had a work visa.
October 26, 2025 at 1:09 PM
Yes most work visa grants are in country to people who already have a work visa but are changing jobs. About a quarter of the in country work visa grants are to people switching from a student or graduate visa but nearly all of the rest had a work visa.
A temporary visa is less appealing than freedom of movement but also this is what happened in Germany:
October 22, 2025 at 10:12 AM
A temporary visa is less appealing than freedom of movement but also this is what happened in Germany:
This is what happened in Germany.
October 22, 2025 at 9:11 AM
This is what happened in Germany.
High skilled workers have recently gotten even more concentrated amongst people from high income countries. Mainly because of the Home Office rejecting more visas from Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, Nigerians and Sri Lankans. 2/3 of the people from lower middle income countries are now Indians.
October 20, 2025 at 12:35 PM
High skilled workers have recently gotten even more concentrated amongst people from high income countries. Mainly because of the Home Office rejecting more visas from Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, Nigerians and Sri Lankans. 2/3 of the people from lower middle income countries are now Indians.