James Bowes
@jamesbowes01.bsky.social
-40,000 to 60,000. That would be for 2026 then it would slowly creep up as emigration drops but permanently remain relatively low. I haven’t done this for when everything settles down yet.
November 28, 2025 at 11:04 PM
-40,000 to 60,000. That would be for 2026 then it would slowly creep up as emigration drops but permanently remain relatively low. I haven’t done this for when everything settles down yet.
It has changed under Labour- unfortunately to become even worse.
November 28, 2025 at 1:32 PM
It has changed under Labour- unfortunately to become even worse.
I think there is a real problem with poor quality but cheap business studies and IT courses being taught by private companies out of the London campuses that universities are setting up. There is a case for cuts there, but not in the rest of the sector where it’s just overall very positive.
November 28, 2025 at 10:01 AM
I think there is a real problem with poor quality but cheap business studies and IT courses being taught by private companies out of the London campuses that universities are setting up. There is a case for cuts there, but not in the rest of the sector where it’s just overall very positive.
Yes, care workers are specifically who Labour are trying to force to leave too. Along with staff in sectors like retail and hospitality. (Plus some sales/marketing staff, data analysts, construction workers, metal workers etc who aren’t the primary target but are also going to be forced out).
November 28, 2025 at 9:04 AM
Yes, care workers are specifically who Labour are trying to force to leave too. Along with staff in sectors like retail and hospitality. (Plus some sales/marketing staff, data analysts, construction workers, metal workers etc who aren’t the primary target but are also going to be forced out).
You can even look up how many visas are granted to accountants from South Africa coming here and it dropped suddenly around April time when employers switched to outsourcing. Most accountants are recruited by just 5 companies though (big 4+BDO) hence why it shifted so fast.
November 28, 2025 at 9:01 AM
You can even look up how many visas are granted to accountants from South Africa coming here and it dropped suddenly around April time when employers switched to outsourcing. Most accountants are recruited by just 5 companies though (big 4+BDO) hence why it shifted so fast.
They’re also being totally hostile to most workers, including care workers. 15 years pathway to ILR really means never. The system is deliberately designed to force nearly everyone on that route to leave at some point within the 15 years.
November 28, 2025 at 8:59 AM
They’re also being totally hostile to most workers, including care workers. 15 years pathway to ILR really means never. The system is deliberately designed to force nearly everyone on that route to leave at some point within the 15 years.
Yes. Although those specific companies are usually the only ones that don’t get affected by visa clampdowns because they mainly use the global business mobility visa.
Accountancy jobs also seem to be getting outsourced to South Africa now.
Accountancy jobs also seem to be getting outsourced to South Africa now.
November 28, 2025 at 8:46 AM
Yes. Although those specific companies are usually the only ones that don’t get affected by visa clampdowns because they mainly use the global business mobility visa.
Accountancy jobs also seem to be getting outsourced to South Africa now.
Accountancy jobs also seem to be getting outsourced to South Africa now.
No reason to think net migration will stop at zero. It’s going negative, at least in the short to medium term.
November 28, 2025 at 8:29 AM
No reason to think net migration will stop at zero. It’s going negative, at least in the short to medium term.
You do though. It’s broken down into immigration and emigration by UK nationals, EU nationals and non-EU nationals.
Until recently the U.K. national figures were wrong but they’ve been made more accurate.
Until recently the U.K. national figures were wrong but they’ve been made more accurate.
November 28, 2025 at 7:40 AM
You do though. It’s broken down into immigration and emigration by UK nationals, EU nationals and non-EU nationals.
Until recently the U.K. national figures were wrong but they’ve been made more accurate.
Until recently the U.K. national figures were wrong but they’ve been made more accurate.
They are. But the main reason for the fall since a couple of years ago is fewer immigrants coming and more immigrants who are already here emigrating.
November 28, 2025 at 12:23 AM
They are. But the main reason for the fall since a couple of years ago is fewer immigrants coming and more immigrants who are already here emigrating.
Outsourcing is also increasing. It seems to have sped up since it became harder to bring immigrants here (both because of visa restrictions but also because the country is becoming less appealing to immigrants).
November 28, 2025 at 12:06 AM
Outsourcing is also increasing. It seems to have sped up since it became harder to bring immigrants here (both because of visa restrictions but also because the country is becoming less appealing to immigrants).
The worst part is these figures predate the white paper restrictions. Which are supposed to reduce net migration by about 100,000 but this is clearly an underestimate.
So any restrictions would be on top of that. Plus emigration of graduate visa holders will increase a lot next year.
So any restrictions would be on top of that. Plus emigration of graduate visa holders will increase a lot next year.
November 27, 2025 at 11:16 PM
The worst part is these figures predate the white paper restrictions. Which are supposed to reduce net migration by about 100,000 but this is clearly an underestimate.
So any restrictions would be on top of that. Plus emigration of graduate visa holders will increase a lot next year.
So any restrictions would be on top of that. Plus emigration of graduate visa holders will increase a lot next year.
Yes and unless you get a global talent visa or get promoted quickly then you’re on the 10 year path to ILR. No discount on the £50,270 for people with a PhD.
November 27, 2025 at 7:23 PM
Yes and unless you get a global talent visa or get promoted quickly then you’re on the 10 year path to ILR. No discount on the £50,270 for people with a PhD.
If they’d just made it harder for new people moving here to get a work visa then I think any damage would be short-term and easily fixable. But they’re about to actively salt the earth with their changes to ILR rules. There’s no recovery from the reputational damage that will cause.
November 27, 2025 at 6:33 PM
If they’d just made it harder for new people moving here to get a work visa then I think any damage would be short-term and easily fixable. But they’re about to actively salt the earth with their changes to ILR rules. There’s no recovery from the reputational damage that will cause.
Yes, it's pretty much all the Conservatives, apart from a small part being due to Labour seem to have been scrutinising visa applications more strictly. Even without the White Paper restrictions, it would have (temporarily) fallen lower than today's figures because of more graduate visas expiring.
November 27, 2025 at 5:40 PM
Yes, it's pretty much all the Conservatives, apart from a small part being due to Labour seem to have been scrutinising visa applications more strictly. Even without the White Paper restrictions, it would have (temporarily) fallen lower than today's figures because of more graduate visas expiring.
I've put some details in here. NB since this was written it's become clear that my figures are an overestimate because of:
1. More UK nationals emigrating than realised.
2. Work visa applications falling faster than expected.
3. The ILR policy being much harsher.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
1. More UK nationals emigrating than realised.
2. Work visa applications falling faster than expected.
3. The ILR policy being much harsher.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
The coming collapse in immigration to the United Kingdom - UK in a changing Europe
James Bowes analyses the fall in net migration to the UK as a result of government policies and explores some of the political and economic consequences.
ukandeu.ac.uk
November 27, 2025 at 5:17 PM
I've put some details in here. NB since this was written it's become clear that my figures are an overestimate because of:
1. More UK nationals emigrating than realised.
2. Work visa applications falling faster than expected.
3. The ILR policy being much harsher.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
1. More UK nationals emigrating than realised.
2. Work visa applications falling faster than expected.
3. The ILR policy being much harsher.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
Pretty much every immigration policy has got massively more restrictive since July or is about todo so. But in particular the changes to Indefinite Leave to Remain have been designed to force a mass exodus of people. Emigration will increase next year because of expiring graduate visas.
November 27, 2025 at 5:12 PM
Pretty much every immigration policy has got massively more restrictive since July or is about todo so. But in particular the changes to Indefinite Leave to Remain have been designed to force a mass exodus of people. Emigration will increase next year because of expiring graduate visas.
The UK and EU nationals leaving are overwhelmingly under 35 as well. Probably for largely the same economic reasons as each other.
November 27, 2025 at 4:43 PM
The UK and EU nationals leaving are overwhelmingly under 35 as well. Probably for largely the same economic reasons as each other.
Put a minus in front and then yes I think so.
November 27, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Put a minus in front and then yes I think so.
I never said I thought it was good. I said the government wanted to cut immigration.
November 27, 2025 at 4:06 PM
I never said I thought it was good. I said the government wanted to cut immigration.
The NHS seems to have virtually stopped recruiting nurses. British or overseas. Without any restrictions, nurses recruited from overseas on a visa has fallen from 6,317 in Jul-Sep 2023 to 337 in Jul-Sep 2025. A 95% fall!
November 27, 2025 at 4:05 PM
The NHS seems to have virtually stopped recruiting nurses. British or overseas. Without any restrictions, nurses recruited from overseas on a visa has fallen from 6,317 in Jul-Sep 2023 to 337 in Jul-Sep 2025. A 95% fall!
Yes quite plausible. It has already increased a lot mainly driven by young people. Tougher family visa rules are likely a major factor but also economic factors.
November 27, 2025 at 3:48 PM
Yes quite plausible. It has already increased a lot mainly driven by young people. Tougher family visa rules are likely a major factor but also economic factors.
This still means a fall though as it will be a higher percentage of a much smaller number.
November 27, 2025 at 3:26 PM
This still means a fall though as it will be a higher percentage of a much smaller number.
At the moment 4% of people on work visas emigrate per year. But percentage will go up in the future (double?) because people in high-skilled jobs are more likely to emigrate again as they have more opportunities elsewhere and are more likely to be from rich countries.
November 27, 2025 at 3:25 PM
At the moment 4% of people on work visas emigrate per year. But percentage will go up in the future (double?) because people in high-skilled jobs are more likely to emigrate again as they have more opportunities elsewhere and are more likely to be from rich countries.