Gavin A. Schmidt | Lightnews

Gavin Schmidt

@climateofgavin.bsky.social

37K followers 780 following 1.5K posts

Climate scientist, juggler. Bikes etc. Blogging at https://www.realclimate.org - data visualization, explainers, and debunking.

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Gavin A. Schmidt is a British climatologist, climate modeler and Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York, and co-founder of the climate science blog RealClimate. .. more

Environmental science 50%

Geology 21%

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Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 15h

There are already impressive efforts in AI/ML for climate change (oops, I said the words!) and I would be shocked (maybe not surprised) if this doesn't get included in this effort in some way.

www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...

RealClimate: ¡AI Caramba!

RealClimate: Rapid progress in the use of machine learning for weather and climate models is evident almost everywhere, but can we distinguish between real advances and vaporware? First off, let's def...

www.realclimate.org

Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 15h

The use of AI to describe everything from LLMs to regression on big data sets is a bit problematic. It's used by the folks creating AI slop to claim credit for ML successes based on totally different architectures & we are now at the point where normal people hear AI & think chatbot (argggh!).

Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 15h

Nonetheless, if the budget is there, this mission could be useful because some of the biggest roadblocks to big ML efforts is really bringing the training data onto one accessible system. Note that this will really be ML, and not based on GenAI efforts such as ChatGPT etc.

Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 15h

There are some downsides. The DOE is a very expensive place to do 'normal' (not national security related) science. Overhead rates that pay for the security at national labs are ~300 to 400% which means that doing something within their firewall is roughly 3 times as expensive as doing it outside.

Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 15h

While earth science is specifically not mentioned in the EO, my expectation that there will be an earth science thrust - based likely on the successes of ML weather forecasting (FourCastNet, DeepCast, NeuralGCM etc.) and building on the E3SM infrastructure that DOE has already developed.

Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 15h

DOE has resources for this - and some very impressive high-performance computing resources already. These are developed mostly for nuclear weapons testing simulations, but have been used for other applications - protein folding, earth system models etc.

Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 15h

It's not obvious to me that creating a single platform for genomics, pharmaceuticals, earth science, materials science etc. is really a good idea since you'd need a big increase in scale for not much benefit. My guess is that they will spin off specific topics to mostly separate systems.

Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 15h

This is something that people have been advocating for in the US for some time, but the scale of such an effort is greater than any one of the science agencies could really do on it's own. The Genesis Mission seems to be even more ambitious - bringing multiple scientific areas together.

Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 15h

First off, this 'mission' is not something totally out of the blue. In Europe, a main pillar of the Destination Earth project is a 'data lake' that would bring all Earth science data sets together (satellite data, models, reanalyses, in situ) to provide a foundation for machine learning.

DestinationEarth DataLake

data.destination-earth.eu

Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 15h

Bob has interesting thoughts on the 'Genesis Mission'. But is there a useful path for Earth Science (writ large) here? Possibly yes.

Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 16h

“Genesis Mission” thoughts:

1. Wacky name, makes me think some transhumanist Silicon Valley type named it (Chris Wright probably counts, even though he’s not actually SV)

2. Publicly accessible data centers at national labs and open large deep learning models could be really valuable for science

Reposted by Gavin A. Schmidt

Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 16h

Reposted by Gavin A. Schmidt

Scott Horton @robertscotthorton.bsky.social · 1d

Peter Hotez: For all practical purposes measles is back, now whooping cough on the rise, next domino to fall. What’s next? Hib meningitis? Polio? All to benefit a corrupt wellness influencer industry and phony MAHA ideologies. Congress, the White House asleep. Americans should be outraged.

Is the US at risk of losing its measles elimination status?

More than 1,700 measles cases have been confirmed so far in the U.S. this year.

www.yahoo.com

Reposted by Katharine Hayhoe, Lisa W. Fazio, Gavin A. Schmidt , and 11 more Katharine Hayhoe, Lisa W. Fazio, Gavin A. Schmidt, Thomas Backhaus, Simon J. Greenhill, Rosemary A. Joyce, Lesley A. Hall, Fabián Muniesa, Smith, Alan Richardson, Silvia Secchi, Dana R. Fisher, Larry W. Hunter, Peter Jacobs

Virginia Gewin @virginiagewin.bsky.social · 1d

Scientists: have you been the target of an online harassment campaign, doxxing, or weaponized FOIA requests? I'd like to talk to you about steps you had to take to protect your digital security for an upcoming Nature story. (You can be anonymous if necessary.)

RTs appreciated.

Reposted by Gavin A. Schmidt

William Shakespeare @shakespeare.lol · 1d

Away with the dotard, to the jail with him!

Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 1d

We got a Charlie earlier this year - game changing. Even Kate comes over to watch me boil water and bake at the same time!

Reposted by Gavin A. Schmidt

The New York Times @nytimes.com · 1d

Breaking News: The CDC quietly appointed Dr. Ralph Lee Abraham, who has been critical of vaccines, as its second in command. During the Covid pandemic, he promoted discredited treatments like ivermectin and, as Louisiana’s surgeon general, halted the state’s mass vaccination campaign.

C.D.C. Quietly Appoints Doctor Critical of Vaccines as Second in Command

During the Covid-19 pandemic, Dr. Ralph Lee Abraham promoted discredited treatments like ivermectin and, as Louisiana’s surgeon general, halted the state’s mass vaccination campaign.

trib.al

Reposted by Jonathan A. Eisen, Gavin A. Schmidt, Tom Shakespeare , and 2 more Jonathan A. Eisen, Gavin A. Schmidt, Tom Shakespeare, Rosemary A. Joyce, Smith

Alt CDC (they/them) @altcdc.altgov.info · 1d

1/ ⚠️ Breaking: At CDC, we've been told the US Government will not officially commemorate World AIDS Day this year. No explanation given.

Photograph of a printed guidance memo stating that the U.S. Government will not be commemorating World AIDS Day this year. Key points include: USG funds should not be used for related events, personnel should refrain from public promotion via social media or other channels, and CDC and other USG staff may attend local events but cannot speak or promote attendance. The memo notes this guidance supersedes previous blanket approval and may require adjustments to planned activities.

Reposted by Gavin A. Schmidt, Rosemary A. Joyce, R. M. Wilson , and 1 more Gavin A. Schmidt, Rosemary A. Joyce, R. M. Wilson, Carly D. Ziter

Katie Mack @astrokatie.com · 1d

Gender-affirming care saves lives

Erin Reed @erininthemorning.com · 2d

1. A landmark study was just published in The Journal of Pediatrics.

It found a 68% reduction in suicidality for trans youth getting HRT.

It also found only 7 of more than 400 stopped taking HRT... and of those that did, 4 still identified as gender-diverse.

Transgender care saves lives.

Study In The Journal Of Pediatrics Finds Trans Youth Care Lowers Suicidality, Few Detransition

The groundbreaking study found that suicidality dropped for transgender youth receiving hormone therapy by nearly 70%, with only 7 patients of 432 discontinuing treatment.

www.erininthemorning.com

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Cas Mudde, Ben H. Ansell , and 72 more Jonathan Portes, Cas Mudde, Ben H. Ansell, Richard S.J. Tol, Dorothy Bishop, David M. Farrell, Will Jennings, Stefan Rahmstorf, David N. Thomas, Gavin A. Schmidt, Patrick A. Jansen, John Horgan, Steve Peers, Andrew Scott, Colin Murray, Mark D. White, Huw Price, Rosemary A. Joyce, Elizabeth Stokoe, Dirk Pilat, Charles West, Martijn W. Hesselink, Chris Hanretty, Simon Wren‐Lewis, Alison Phipps, Mary Corcoran, Anand Menon, Michelle Everson, Jo Barraket, Rebecca Tushnet, Ben Worthy, David R. Miller, Robert Wolfe, Gary D. Rawnsley, Aileen McHarg, Jacob T. Levy, Simon Glendinning, Scott A. Imberman, Julie Cupples, Lyndsey Stonebridge, Stephen Ryan, Samantha Brennan, Jonathan Birch, Anne Norton, Hubert Zimmermann, Leo McCann, Timothy Burke, Manuel Puppis, Graeme Warren, David Bartram, Lisa Diedrich, Brian Doucet, Ann Bartow, Stuart White, Pauline Stafford, Clayton Littlejohn, Rense Corten, Greg Linden, Jack Stilgoe, Lukas Graf, Jon Dean, Klaus Oschema, Christina Pagel, Daxton R. Stewart, Rune Møller Stahl, Olivier Mannoni, Camille Lefebvre, Aviel Roshwald, Colin Talbot, Tarik Abou‐Chadi, Nathan P. Kalmoe, Jeroen Van Bouwel, David Spurrett, François Guesnet, Speranţa Dumitru

Rutger Bregman @rutgerbregman.com · 1d

I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.

They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1

Reposted by Gavin A. Schmidt, Rosemary A. Joyce, Lesley A. Hall , and 7 more Gavin A. Schmidt, Rosemary A. Joyce, Lesley A. Hall, Melanie C. Green, R. M. Wilson, Erin O’Donnell, Nelson Flores, Karen O’Leary, Anand Swaminathan, Carly D. Ziter

Erin Reed @erininthemorning.com · 2d

Study In The Journal Of Pediatrics Finds Trans Youth Care Lowers Suicidality, Few Detransition

The groundbreaking study found that suicidality dropped for transgender youth receiving hormone therapy by nearly 70%, with only 7 patients of 432 discontinuing treatment.

www.erininthemorning.com

Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 2d

Yes. Same concept

Reposted by Gavin A. Schmidt

Robert Simmon @rsimmon.bsky.social · 2d

Great view of the eruption of Hayli Gubbi Volcano from Aqua MODIS yesterday afternoon. Imagery from NASA WorldView: go.nasa.gov/4p0ivDW

🌋🛰️

True color satellite image of the plume from the explosive eruption of Hayli Gubbi volcano on November 23, 2025. The brown ash plume stretches from the Danakil Depression in Ethiopia, eastward across the Red Sea to cover parts of Saudi Arabia and Yemen.

Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 2d

Similarly, it's different from weather forescasting - even on seasonal time scales - which does provide information on climatological risks (i.e. the probability of extremes).

Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 2d

It is motivated by the (obvious) non-stationarity in observations and the need to predict risks for today, not for 20 or 30 years ago. This is distinguishable as well as climate trends going forward 20 or 30 years whch depend on future emissions.

Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 2d

This paper did not get that much attention when it came out, but it deserves more. Welcome to "Climate Nowcasting" as a new term in the lexicon...

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 2d

big if.

Reposted by Gavin A. Schmidt

Michigan Adoptee Rights Coalition @michiganadoptees.bsky.social · 2d

A mother shares the terrifying reality that her internationally adopted son, raised in the U.S. since childhood, could be detained or deported by ICE because he was never granted citizenship. 35-70k adoptees remain in this legal limbo. Urge Congress to pass the PAAF Act. 🥚

I'm A U.S. Citizen. I'm Terrified My Adopted Son Will Be Snatched By ICE Due To A Heartbreaking Loophole.

"I lie awake at night worried that he’ll be snatched off the street and taken to a nightmarish prison in some other country, and I’ll never see him again."

www.huffpost.com

Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 2d

i.e. what gets covered, what doesn't. Who gets to speak to large audiences and who doesn't. The view from nowhere. Balance vs. truth. etc.

Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 2d

The ethical lapses here are huge, but I might take issue with Sullivan's conclusion that it's this kind of thing that trashes the media's reputation w/the public. None of these folks are household names (Bluesky notoriety doesn't count). The bigger issues are still systematic, not personal.

Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 2d

This seems a bit hand-wavy. There’s no calculation here related to ECS and I’m unaware of one that relates the magnitude of the IMO-related aerosol reduction to ECS in any simple way. There isn’t even a radiative forcing estimate that could be plugged into the assessment we did earlier this yr.

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