Gavin Schmidt
@climateofgavin.bsky.social
Climate scientist, juggler. Bikes etc. Blogging at https://www.realclimate.org - data visualization, explainers, and debunking.
The defense that this was just an adjustment based on better data is self-serving BS.
We do *not* know what the 100-yr flood level is - even if we had perfect DEMs.
Even if we had perfect historical data, non-stationarity means we don’t know what the level is *now*, let alone in the future.
We do *not* know what the 100-yr flood level is - even if we had perfect DEMs.
Even if we had perfect historical data, non-stationarity means we don’t know what the level is *now*, let alone in the future.
November 19, 2025 at 10:27 PM
The defense that this was just an adjustment based on better data is self-serving BS.
We do *not* know what the 100-yr flood level is - even if we had perfect DEMs.
Even if we had perfect historical data, non-stationarity means we don’t know what the level is *now*, let alone in the future.
We do *not* know what the 100-yr flood level is - even if we had perfect DEMs.
Even if we had perfect historical data, non-stationarity means we don’t know what the level is *now*, let alone in the future.
First, that the camp owners successfully petitioned to move the flood map line away from the most at risk cabins is unconscionable:
November 19, 2025 at 10:27 PM
First, that the camp owners successfully petitioned to move the flood map line away from the most at risk cabins is unconscionable:
Indeed, the trends in global mean temperatures (and many other variables) since 2005 have very clear and significant trends, which are attributable to ongoing human activities. Another example might be volcanoes that can cause detectable shifts in the climate for a few years.
November 15, 2025 at 5:33 PM
Indeed, the trends in global mean temperatures (and many other variables) since 2005 have very clear and significant trends, which are attributable to ongoing human activities. Another example might be volcanoes that can cause detectable shifts in the climate for a few years.
Now that the Sept and Oct data are (belatedly) in, it looks like 2025 will be the second warmest year in the record (~80% probability). The last three years are in a class of their own.
November 15, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Now that the Sept and Oct data are (belatedly) in, it looks like 2025 will be the second warmest year in the record (~80% probability). The last three years are in a class of their own.
Definitely snow…
November 11, 2025 at 1:11 PM
Definitely snow…
The last harvest…
November 11, 2025 at 12:34 AM
The last harvest…
Lovely day for a vote…
October 26, 2025 at 5:14 PM
Lovely day for a vote…
October 25, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Climate debate hive mind: there is a line in the new Ian McEwan novel (highly recommended!) that refers to some climate change deniers in the UK. I know the last two he’s referring to, but not the first. Minor thing but it’s been bothering me for days! Help!
October 23, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Climate debate hive mind: there is a line in the new Ian McEwan novel (highly recommended!) that refers to some climate change deniers in the UK. I know the last two he’s referring to, but not the first. Minor thing but it’s been bothering me for days! Help!
Thanks! Coincidentally I just saw you out in the wild…
October 18, 2025 at 8:08 AM
Thanks! Coincidentally I just saw you out in the wild…
Some personal news…
October 18, 2025 at 5:42 AM
Some personal news…
Here (1880-1899 baseline should be close enough, I hope?).
October 13, 2025 at 7:09 AM
Here (1880-1899 baseline should be close enough, I hope?).
![We're all trying to find the guy who did this
[guy in a hot dog costume meme]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qrw2fun5ahsqvx73k5geleme/bafkreid4axvkasl7rzy3nidi57mxaw7st5pscqja47gz7vzavzvt7oaqya@jpeg)
Love this place.
October 7, 2025 at 10:50 PM
Love this place.
Entry into the carry-s%%t Olympics…
October 6, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Entry into the carry-s%%t Olympics…
September 23, 2025 at 10:35 PM
NASA GISS at the AMNH today talking about Eyes on Earth 👀🌎 for the museum’s Climate Day.
Big Bang Theater (2nd floor, Hayden planetarium) from 10:30 to 3:30 (last show).
Come say hi!
Big Bang Theater (2nd floor, Hayden planetarium) from 10:30 to 3:30 (last show).
Come say hi!
September 20, 2025 at 1:46 PM
NASA GISS at the AMNH today talking about Eyes on Earth 👀🌎 for the museum’s Climate Day.
Big Bang Theater (2nd floor, Hayden planetarium) from 10:30 to 3:30 (last show).
Come say hi!
Big Bang Theater (2nd floor, Hayden planetarium) from 10:30 to 3:30 (last show).
Come say hi!
We have choices. And we don’t choose you.
September 20, 2025 at 11:29 AM
We have choices. And we don’t choose you.
September 16, 2025 at 11:32 AM
September 14, 2025 at 6:10 PM
NASA GISS folks talking about climate at @pioneerwork.bsky.social in Red Hook today 12-4pm. Come say hi!
September 14, 2025 at 4:07 PM
NASA GISS folks talking about climate at @pioneerwork.bsky.social in Red Hook today 12-4pm. Come say hi!
The quicksand problem at Jamaica has claimed more victims.
September 7, 2025 at 2:33 AM
The quicksand problem at Jamaica has claimed more victims.
New Mexico is showing the Finns how to do it. In 1940.
September 1, 2025 at 2:38 AM
New Mexico is showing the Finns how to do it. In 1940.