Ken Caldeira

@kencaldeira.com

19K followers 3.7K following 1.5K posts

Mostly mentoring a group of postdocs at Stanford.
Senior Scientist at Gates Ventures.
climate / energy / etc
https://sustainablesolutions.stanford.edu/people/ken-caldeira

Posts imperfectly represent the views of my former self and not my employer. .. more

Videos

Kenneth Caldeira is an American atmospheric scientist. His areas of research include ocean acidification, climate effects of trees, intentional climate modification, interactions in the global carbon cycle/climate system, and sustainable energy. .. more

Environmental science 45%

Geography 15%

Posts Replies Media Videos

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Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · Nov 18

Folks, I am really appreciative of people who have followed me and added me to their starter packs.

I post about climate science, energy system transition, and related issues.

I try to restrain myself to information and questions, and try to avoid unseemly opining in public.

Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 10h

Where is the clause of the Constitution that calls out the Federal Reserve as being fundamentally different from other independent agencies?

(Maybe next to the Presidential immunity clause?)

The Supreme Court starts with the outcome they want and then invents legal justification for that outcome.

The Associated Press @apnews.com · 22h

The Supreme Court for the past year has repeatedly allowed President Donald Trump to fire heads of independent agencies, but it appears to be drawing a line with the Federal Reserve.

In the case of the Federal Reserve, Supreme Court appears to carve out a murky exception

The Supreme Court for the past year has repeatedly allowed President Donald Trump to fire heads of independent agencies, but it appears to be drawing a line with the Federal Reserve.

bit.ly

Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 22h

Is it perhaps simply a demonstration of the human capacity to believe that whatever is in my narrow personal interest must be the right thing to do?

Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 22h

The Republicans in Congress and the Administration are allowing an obviously demented corrupt narcissistic pedophile to destroy our country and damage the world.

How do they justify this to themselves?

Matt Novak @paleofuture.bsky.social · 1d

Trump says sharing “fake and fraudulent” polling should be a criminal offense, then goes on to list every major news outlet, writing that “something has to be done” about them.

Trump: Fake and Fraudulent Polling should be, virtually, a criminal offense. As an example, all of the Anti Trump Media that covered me during the 2020 Election showed Polls that were knowingly wrong. They knew what they were doing, trying to influence the Election, but I won in a Landslide, including winning the Popular Vote, all 7 of the 7 Swing States, the Electoral College was a route, and 2,750 Counties to 525. You can't do much better than that, and yet if people examined The Failing New York Times, ABC Fake News, NBC Fake News, CBS Fake News, Low Ratings CNN, or the now defunct MSDNC, Polls were all fraudulent, and bore nothing even close to the final results. Something has to be done about Fraudulent Polling. Even the Polls of FoxNews and The Wall Street Journal have been, over the years, terrible! There are great Pollsters that called the Election right, but the Media does not want to use them in any way, shape, or form. Isn't it sad what has happened to American Journalism, but I am going to do everything possible to keep this Polling SCAM from moving forward!
18 ReTruths 74 Likes
1/22/26, 9:11 AM

Reposted by Ken Caldeira, Peter Jacobs

The Associated Press @apnews.com · 22h

The Supreme Court for the past year has repeatedly allowed President Donald Trump to fire heads of independent agencies, but it appears to be drawing a line with the Federal Reserve.

In the case of the Federal Reserve, Supreme Court appears to carve out a murky exception

The Supreme Court for the past year has repeatedly allowed President Donald Trump to fire heads of independent agencies, but it appears to be drawing a line with the Federal Reserve.

bit.ly

Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 1d

We eat the sun to serve.

Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 1d

We Americans are learning what it feels like to be the bad guys on the global stage.

It doesn't feel very good.

www.nytimes.com/2026/01/22/u...

U.S. Formally Withdraws From World Health Organization

www.nytimes.com

Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 1d

It has to come from the demand side, for example, potential employers who say, "we will consider only your 5 publications each year with the fewest citations."

Early career people have to play the game by the rules that are applied by the people who pay salaries and allocate grant money.

Reposted by Juan Moreno‐Cruz

Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 1d

With these people, every accusation is an admission of guilt.

The "organized chaos agents, paid agitators" who are not from Minnesota, are working for ICE.

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 1d

Emmer: "The people you're seeing in these videos, the vast majority of them I do not believe are from Minnesota. These are organized chaos agents, paid agitators. The vast majority of Minnesotans that are talking to me appreciate that law enforcement has arrived, and they are happy they're there."

Reposted by Ken Caldeira

Matt Novak @paleofuture.bsky.social · 1d

Trump says sharing “fake and fraudulent” polling should be a criminal offense, then goes on to list every major news outlet, writing that “something has to be done” about them.

Reposted by Ken Caldeira, Juan Moreno‐Cruz, Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 1d

Reposted by Richard S.J. Tol, Dominik Wiedenhofer, Margot C. Finn

Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 1d

It is universally acknowledged in academia that the world needs fewer better papers -- fewer inconsequential micro-advances where the aim is to help careers, not society.

How do we solve this collective action problem?

www.nature.com/articles/d41...
richardtol.substack.com/p/quality-vs...

I’m going to halve my publication output. You should consider slow science, too

If we don’t slow down, the research enterprise is going to crash, argues Adrian Barnett.

www.nature.com

Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 2d

These people (assuming they are thinking) are counting on Presidential pardons, but Presidential pardons cannot protect them from state prosecution if the Department of Justice argues that their actions were unauthorized by Federal law and not part of their Federal duties.

Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 2d

Democratic leadership (if that is not an oxymoron) should make it very clear that the future Department of Justice will aid state prosecution of any Federal employee who breaks state laws, when those acts are not authorized by Federal law and not necessary to carry out Federal duties.

The Associated Press @apnews.com · 2d

BREAKING: Immigration officers are asserting sweeping power to enter homes without a judge’s warrant, a memo obtained by AP says.

Immigration officers assert sweeping power to enter homes without a judge's warrant, memo says

An Immigration and Customs Enforcement memo obtained by The Associated Press reveals that the agency allows immigration officers to forcibly enter homes to make arrests without a judicial warrant.

bit.ly

Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 2d

Free speech absolutists

Reposted by Stephen M. Walt, Anna O. Law, Ben H. Ansell , and 42 more Stephen M. Walt, Anna O. Law, Ben H. Ansell, Jan W. Mueller, Elizabeth Saunders, Rebecca Solnit, Nandita Sharma, Richard S.J. Tol, Richard E. Lenski, Jennifer A. Richeson, Ken Caldeira, Joshua S. Weitz, Steve Peers, Mark D. White, American Library Association, Eric Goldman, Juan Cole, Robert C. Richards, Alan Richardson, David R. Miller, Aaron Sojourner, Stacy D. VanDeveer, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Erol Akçay, Timothy Graham, David C. Kimball, David Rosnick, Sarah Roberts, Cailin O’Connor, Michael Jones‐Correa, W Grant, David Murakami Wood, Mark Rice, Ann Bartow, Greg O’Brien, Alexandra Filindra, Olivier Mannoni, Nicole Guenther Discenza, Manisha Sinha, Aviel Roshwald, Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò, Nathan P. Kalmoe, Aidan O’Sullivan, Colin Woodard, Jeannette Sutton

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social · 2d

🚨HOLY CRAP. An ICE whistleblower just revealed a secret memo authorizing ICE officers to break into homes without a judicial warrant, which DHS's own legal training materials say is unconstitutional!

ICE then hid the memo from the public, passing it along by word of mouth and private conversation.

The Gravamen of the Disclosure

4. The gravamen of the disclosure is as follows:
a. By memorandum dated May 12, 2025 (“the May 12 Memo”), Acting ICE Director Todd Lyons authorizes ICE agents to forcibly enter into certain people’s homes without a judicial warrant, consent, or an emergency.

b. Specifically, in the May 12 Memo, the Acting ICE Director authorized ICE Agents to rely on Form I-205 (which is not a judicial warrant) to enter the residence of an alien subject to a final order of deportation, without consent, including by “a necessary and reasonable amount of force.”2c. While addressed to “All ICE Personnel,” in practice the May 12 Memo has not been formally distributed to all personnel. Instead, the May 12 Memo has been provided to select DHS officials who are then directed to verbally brief the new policy for action. Those supervisors then show the Memo to some employees, like our clients, and direct them to read the Memo and return it to the supervisor.

Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 2d

I meant my post as a joke.

Sometimes tone does not translate well in print.

Reposted by Kim L. Scheppele, Nicholas A. Christakis, Stefan Reis , and 33 more Kim L. Scheppele, Nicholas A. Christakis, Stefan Reis, Ken Caldeira, John Horgan, Michael A. Clemens, Steven S. Smith, Rosemary A. Joyce, Diane Ravitch, Melissa Johnson, Michael J. Allen, Fabián Muniesa, Robert C. Richards, Michelle Dion, Aaron Sojourner, Lesley Bartlett, Jacob T. Levy, Nazita Lajevardi, Robert B. Reich, Juan Moreno‐Cruz, Michael D. McDonald, Mary Margaret McCabe, Andrew Rudalevige, Julie Rovner, Karen O’Leary, Stephen A. Meserve, David S. Tanenhaus, Maksym Polyakov, Stella M. Rouse, Nathan P. Kalmoe, Brian Jm Quinn, Timothy D. McBride, Élisabeth Vallet, Dunlap, Peter Jacobs, Jesse R. Lasky

The Associated Press @apnews.com · 2d

BREAKING: Immigration officers are asserting sweeping power to enter homes without a judge’s warrant, a memo obtained by AP says.

Immigration officers assert sweeping power to enter homes without a judge's warrant, memo says

An Immigration and Customs Enforcement memo obtained by The Associated Press reveals that the agency allows immigration officers to forcibly enter homes to make arrests without a judicial warrant.

bit.ly

Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 2d

Unless, of course, you need a map that represents rhumb lines as straight lines. (Apparently, a common need.)

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhumb_l...

Rhumb line - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 2d

www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01...

Reposted by Ken Caldeira

Jason Koebler @jasonkoebler.bsky.social · 2d

Belarus has arrested several HAM radio hobbyists and is threatening them with the death penalty, extremely wild situation: www.404media.co/ham-radio-op...

HAM Radio Operators in Belarus Arrested, Face the Death Penalty

"My local community is being systematically liquidated in what I can only describe as a targeted intellectual genocide."

www.404media.co

Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 2d

6/6

And @nytimes.com reports his claims that he won't do something in a headline as if it meant he would not do that thing.

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Summary pattern

Across these cases, the common pattern is campaign absolutism followed by conditional or reversed action once in office, often justified by claims of necessity, obstruction, or emergency. The list above focuses on clear statement → clear contradiction, not policy shifts due to new legislation or court rulings.

Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 2d

5/n

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Public health & crisis management

12. “I won’t politicize COVID-19.”
Statement: Claimed focus on science and unity.
What happened: Frequently contradicted public-health officials, promoted unproven treatments, and framed mitigation measures as political attacks.

---

Immigration

13. “I won’t separate families.”
Statement: Denied responsibility for family separation.
What happened: Implemented a zero-tolerance policy that systematically separated thousands of children from parents at the border.

Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 2d

4/n

8. “I won’t use emergency powers for the wall.”
Statement: Criticized emergency declarations as improper.
What happened: Declared a national emergency to redirect funds for border wall construction after Congress declined full funding.

9. “I won’t praise dictators.”
Statement: Campaigned on strength against authoritarianism.
What happened: Repeatedly praised or expressed admiration for authoritarian leaders while criticizing traditional allies.

---

Transparency & accountability

10. “I will release my tax returns.”
Statement: Repeatedly promised release once audits were finished.
What happened: Never released them while in office; returns later became public through legal processes.

11. “I won’t attack the press.”
Statement: Claimed respect for free media.
What happened: Routinely labeled mainstream outlets “enemy of the people” and encouraged public distrust of journalists.

Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 2d

3/n

5. “I won’t pardon people for political reasons.”
Statement: Criticized perceived abuse of pardon power.
What happened: Issued pardons or commutations to political allies (e.g., campaign associates) often overriding DOJ recommendations.

6. “I accept the election results.”
Statement (2016): Said he would accept the outcome if he won; later said “I will totally accept the results… if I win.”
What happened: Refused to concede the 2020 election, promoted false claims of fraud, and supported efforts to overturn certified results.

---

Foreign policy & military

7. “I won’t get us into endless wars.”
Statement: Promised fewer military entanglements.
What happened: Increased troop levels in Afghanistan early in his term; authorized expanded drone strikes and loosened targeting rules.

Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 2d

2/n

3. “I will completely separate myself from my businesses.”
Statement: Promised no conflicts of interest.
What happened: Retained ownership of the Trump Organization; foreign and domestic government spending flowed to Trump properties throughout his presidency.

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Law enforcement, norms, and democracy

4. “I won’t interfere with the Justice Department.”
Statement: Said DOJ would remain independent.
What happened: Publicly pressured DOJ officials, criticized prosecutors, and repeatedly commented on ongoing investigations.

Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 2d

ChatGTP: Can you construct a list of things Trump said he wouldn't do but then he did?

www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01...

1/n

Below is a non-exhaustive, fact-checked list of actions that Donald Trump said he would not do—and later did, or attempted to do. I’ve grouped them by theme and kept the wording close to his public statements.

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Campaign finance & ethics

1. “I won’t have time to play golf.”
Statement (2016): Claimed he’d be too busy working to golf.
What happened: Spent hundreds of days golfing, often at his own properties, generating significant government payments to Trump-owned businesses.

2. “I won’t take the presidential salary.”
Statement: Said he would forgo his salary.
What happened: Donated his salary only intermittently, often to agencies he was publicly criticizing; donations were partial and episodic.

Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 2d

Too demented.

Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 2d

Wasn't there an Iran-Contra scandal reminiscent of this?

Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 3d

Yes, but I saw a post from a European, blaming us for not doing enough to stop him from getting in power and not doing enough to remove him from power.

It was a not-unreasonable accusation.

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