Ken Caldeira
@kencaldeira.com
Mostly mentoring a group of postdocs at Stanford.
Senior Scientist at Gates Ventures.
climate / energy / etc
https://sustainablesolutions.stanford.edu/people/ken-caldeira
Posts imperfectly represent the views of my former self and not my employer.
Senior Scientist at Gates Ventures.
climate / energy / etc
https://sustainablesolutions.stanford.edu/people/ken-caldeira
Posts imperfectly represent the views of my former self and not my employer.
Looking at deaths instead of DALYs (Disability Adjusted Life Years) emphasizes diseases of the aging.
Still no homicide or terrorism on the list.
I am using 2018 so as not to consider Covid effects.
www.who.int/data/gho/dat...
Still no homicide or terrorism on the list.
I am using 2018 so as not to consider Covid effects.
www.who.int/data/gho/dat...
November 16, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Looking at deaths instead of DALYs (Disability Adjusted Life Years) emphasizes diseases of the aging.
Still no homicide or terrorism on the list.
I am using 2018 so as not to consider Covid effects.
www.who.int/data/gho/dat...
Still no homicide or terrorism on the list.
I am using 2018 so as not to consider Covid effects.
www.who.int/data/gho/dat...
Here are the DALY statistics for the US (pre-Covid).
Still no homicide or terrorism in the top 10.
Still mostly disease, much of it preventable. (Interesting how back and neck pain scores so highly.)
www.who.int/data/gho/dat...
(Note: Earlier version of this post was for Afghanistan.)
Still no homicide or terrorism in the top 10.
Still mostly disease, much of it preventable. (Interesting how back and neck pain scores so highly.)
www.who.int/data/gho/dat...
(Note: Earlier version of this post was for Afghanistan.)
November 16, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Here are the DALY statistics for the US (pre-Covid).
Still no homicide or terrorism in the top 10.
Still mostly disease, much of it preventable. (Interesting how back and neck pain scores so highly.)
www.who.int/data/gho/dat...
(Note: Earlier version of this post was for Afghanistan.)
Still no homicide or terrorism in the top 10.
Still mostly disease, much of it preventable. (Interesting how back and neck pain scores so highly.)
www.who.int/data/gho/dat...
(Note: Earlier version of this post was for Afghanistan.)
Actual causes of death in the US and media coverage of same.
And then we wonder why people have such a skewed understanding of the world.
@ourworldindata.org is a treasure. Thanks, @hannahritchie.bsky.social and colleagues.
ourworldindata.org/does-the-new...
And then we wonder why people have such a skewed understanding of the world.
@ourworldindata.org is a treasure. Thanks, @hannahritchie.bsky.social and colleagues.
ourworldindata.org/does-the-new...
November 16, 2025 at 5:26 AM
Actual causes of death in the US and media coverage of same.
And then we wonder why people have such a skewed understanding of the world.
@ourworldindata.org is a treasure. Thanks, @hannahritchie.bsky.social and colleagues.
ourworldindata.org/does-the-new...
And then we wonder why people have such a skewed understanding of the world.
@ourworldindata.org is a treasure. Thanks, @hannahritchie.bsky.social and colleagues.
ourworldindata.org/does-the-new...
Is this elasticity included in social cost of carbon calculations?
I notice that Rennert et al (2022) assume direct proportionality.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
I notice that Rennert et al (2022) assume direct proportionality.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
November 14, 2025 at 9:22 PM
Is this elasticity included in social cost of carbon calculations?
I notice that Rennert et al (2022) assume direct proportionality.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
I notice that Rennert et al (2022) assume direct proportionality.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Maybe the ratio of value of statistical life to income should be much higher for the billionaire, because, if eta>1, the billionaire would need a larger proportional increase to get the same increase in utility.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isoelas...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isoelas...
November 14, 2025 at 8:41 PM
Maybe the ratio of value of statistical life to income should be much higher for the billionaire, because, if eta>1, the billionaire would need a larger proportional increase to get the same increase in utility.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isoelas...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isoelas...
"𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐭'𝐬 𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐥𝐞𝐦"
𝘈 𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘪𝘴 𝘳𝘶𝘯𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘥𝘰𝘸𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘤𝘬 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘵𝘰 𝘬𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘢 𝘣𝘪𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘪𝘳𝘦, 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘪𝘧 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘱𝘶𝘭𝘭 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘤𝘩 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘪𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘢𝘥 𝘬𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘧𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘰𝘱𝘭𝘦 𝘭𝘪𝘷𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘯 𝘢𝘣𝘫𝘦𝘤𝘵 𝘱𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘵𝘺.
𝘋𝘰 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘢𝘨𝘨𝘳𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘶𝘵𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘣𝘺 𝘱𝘶𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘤𝘩?
𝘈 𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘪𝘴 𝘳𝘶𝘯𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘥𝘰𝘸𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘤𝘬 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘵𝘰 𝘬𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘢 𝘣𝘪𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘪𝘳𝘦, 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘪𝘧 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘱𝘶𝘭𝘭 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘤𝘩 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘪𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘢𝘥 𝘬𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘧𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘰𝘱𝘭𝘦 𝘭𝘪𝘷𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘯 𝘢𝘣𝘫𝘦𝘤𝘵 𝘱𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘵𝘺.
𝘋𝘰 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘢𝘨𝘨𝘳𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘶𝘵𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘣𝘺 𝘱𝘶𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘤𝘩?
November 14, 2025 at 6:56 PM
"𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐭'𝐬 𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐥𝐞𝐦"
𝘈 𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘪𝘴 𝘳𝘶𝘯𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘥𝘰𝘸𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘤𝘬 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘵𝘰 𝘬𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘢 𝘣𝘪𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘪𝘳𝘦, 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘪𝘧 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘱𝘶𝘭𝘭 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘤𝘩 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘪𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘢𝘥 𝘬𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘧𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘰𝘱𝘭𝘦 𝘭𝘪𝘷𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘯 𝘢𝘣𝘫𝘦𝘤𝘵 𝘱𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘵𝘺.
𝘋𝘰 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘢𝘨𝘨𝘳𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘶𝘵𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘣𝘺 𝘱𝘶𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘤𝘩?
𝘈 𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘪𝘴 𝘳𝘶𝘯𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘥𝘰𝘸𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘤𝘬 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘵𝘰 𝘬𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘢 𝘣𝘪𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘪𝘳𝘦, 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘪𝘧 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘱𝘶𝘭𝘭 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘤𝘩 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘪𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘢𝘥 𝘬𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘧𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘰𝘱𝘭𝘦 𝘭𝘪𝘷𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘯 𝘢𝘣𝘫𝘦𝘤𝘵 𝘱𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘵𝘺.
𝘋𝘰 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘢𝘨𝘨𝘳𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘶𝘵𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘣𝘺 𝘱𝘶𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘤𝘩?
In an absurd waste of time, I wrote a blog post about voting and the 19th Chopin Competition.
There has been controversy about who should have won.
Different voting systems would yield different winners. Differences in top rankings are statistically insignificant.
kencaldeira.com/2025/11/chop...
There has been controversy about who should have won.
Different voting systems would yield different winners. Differences in top rankings are statistically insignificant.
kencaldeira.com/2025/11/chop...
November 13, 2025 at 4:49 AM
In an absurd waste of time, I wrote a blog post about voting and the 19th Chopin Competition.
There has been controversy about who should have won.
Different voting systems would yield different winners. Differences in top rankings are statistically insignificant.
kencaldeira.com/2025/11/chop...
There has been controversy about who should have won.
Different voting systems would yield different winners. Differences in top rankings are statistically insignificant.
kencaldeira.com/2025/11/chop...
I'm preparing slides for a talk I'll be giving at Stanford this Thursday. Here is a draft slide.
events.stanford.edu/event/earth-...
events.stanford.edu/event/earth-...
November 10, 2025 at 9:26 PM
I'm preparing slides for a talk I'll be giving at Stanford this Thursday. Here is a draft slide.
events.stanford.edu/event/earth-...
events.stanford.edu/event/earth-...
Please, tell me it isn't so ...
Are Senate Democrats once again snatching defeat from the jaws of victory?
Are they showing they have no spine, no unity, no real ability to govern in the broad interest of Americans?
Are Senate Democrats once again snatching defeat from the jaws of victory?
Are they showing they have no spine, no unity, no real ability to govern in the broad interest of Americans?
November 10, 2025 at 1:47 AM
Please, tell me it isn't so ...
Are Senate Democrats once again snatching defeat from the jaws of victory?
Are they showing they have no spine, no unity, no real ability to govern in the broad interest of Americans?
Are Senate Democrats once again snatching defeat from the jaws of victory?
Are they showing they have no spine, no unity, no real ability to govern in the broad interest of Americans?
Opinion
Nicholas Kristof
"Trump Aid Cuts Kill More Christians Than Jihadists Do"
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/08/o...
Nicholas Kristof
"Trump Aid Cuts Kill More Christians Than Jihadists Do"
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/08/o...
November 9, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Opinion
Nicholas Kristof
"Trump Aid Cuts Kill More Christians Than Jihadists Do"
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/08/o...
Nicholas Kristof
"Trump Aid Cuts Kill More Christians Than Jihadists Do"
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/08/o...
Mafia and fascism in warm embrace.
November 6, 2025 at 7:19 PM
Mafia and fascism in warm embrace.
Experience curves indicate that successful technologies reduce in cost by ~20% for each doubling of cumulative production.
However, we find that past learning rates are not very predictive of future learning rates, throwing many energy tech cost projections into doubt.
doi.org/10.1016/j.ad...
However, we find that past learning rates are not very predictive of future learning rates, throwing many energy tech cost projections into doubt.
doi.org/10.1016/j.ad...
November 4, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Experience curves indicate that successful technologies reduce in cost by ~20% for each doubling of cumulative production.
However, we find that past learning rates are not very predictive of future learning rates, throwing many energy tech cost projections into doubt.
doi.org/10.1016/j.ad...
However, we find that past learning rates are not very predictive of future learning rates, throwing many energy tech cost projections into doubt.
doi.org/10.1016/j.ad...
Maybe serfs were proud to see their baron riding in a gilded carriage drawn by stately horses.
There is something deep in human psychology that causes peasants to revel in the grandeur of their dukes and princes.
Trump, in his naive stupidity, may have his finger on the pulse of the masses.
There is something deep in human psychology that causes peasants to revel in the grandeur of their dukes and princes.
Trump, in his naive stupidity, may have his finger on the pulse of the masses.
October 31, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Maybe serfs were proud to see their baron riding in a gilded carriage drawn by stately horses.
There is something deep in human psychology that causes peasants to revel in the grandeur of their dukes and princes.
Trump, in his naive stupidity, may have his finger on the pulse of the masses.
There is something deep in human psychology that causes peasants to revel in the grandeur of their dukes and princes.
Trump, in his naive stupidity, may have his finger on the pulse of the masses.
By the way, here is a photo out the window of a plane at about the position shown in the previous post.
October 28, 2025 at 4:55 PM
By the way, here is a photo out the window of a plane at about the position shown in the previous post.
If you are interested in a postdoc position on the Stanford campus on the climate effects of a slowdown/shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, please contact me.
Atmosphere or ocean modeling experience is a plus.
sustainablesolutions.stanford.edu/people/ken-c...
Atmosphere or ocean modeling experience is a plus.
sustainablesolutions.stanford.edu/people/ken-c...
October 28, 2025 at 1:50 PM
If you are interested in a postdoc position on the Stanford campus on the climate effects of a slowdown/shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, please contact me.
Atmosphere or ocean modeling experience is a plus.
sustainablesolutions.stanford.edu/people/ken-c...
Atmosphere or ocean modeling experience is a plus.
sustainablesolutions.stanford.edu/people/ken-c...
"Trump, as he often does when he is breaking law or norms, is acting publicly and without shame or unease."
-- @jacklgoldsmith.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/u...
-- @jacklgoldsmith.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/u...
October 24, 2025 at 1:48 PM
"Trump, as he often does when he is breaking law or norms, is acting publicly and without shame or unease."
-- @jacklgoldsmith.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/u...
-- @jacklgoldsmith.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/u...
I remember when we thought that it couldn't get worse than Bush and Cheney.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abu_Ghr...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abu_Ghr...
October 23, 2025 at 7:03 PM
I remember when we thought that it couldn't get worse than Bush and Cheney.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abu_Ghr...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abu_Ghr...
More lawlessness and corruption, out in the open.
One of their more minor offenses, but most evidence of lawlessness and corruption doesn't come with good visuals.
(Although ICE abuses have provided an abundance of compelling images.)
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
vp.nyt.com/video/2025/1...
One of their more minor offenses, but most evidence of lawlessness and corruption doesn't come with good visuals.
(Although ICE abuses have provided an abundance of compelling images.)
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
vp.nyt.com/video/2025/1...
October 23, 2025 at 5:10 PM
More lawlessness and corruption, out in the open.
One of their more minor offenses, but most evidence of lawlessness and corruption doesn't come with good visuals.
(Although ICE abuses have provided an abundance of compelling images.)
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
vp.nyt.com/video/2025/1...
One of their more minor offenses, but most evidence of lawlessness and corruption doesn't come with good visuals.
(Although ICE abuses have provided an abundance of compelling images.)
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
vp.nyt.com/video/2025/1...
Trump and his co-conspirators provide us with a visual metaphor for what they are doing to our country.
October 22, 2025 at 12:20 AM
Trump and his co-conspirators provide us with a visual metaphor for what they are doing to our country.
Beware of antisemites who feign concern about antisemitism.
Honolulu Star-Bulletin
25 March 1933
www.newspapers.com/article/hono...
Honolulu Star-Bulletin
25 March 1933
www.newspapers.com/article/hono...
October 21, 2025 at 10:24 PM
Beware of antisemites who feign concern about antisemitism.
Honolulu Star-Bulletin
25 March 1933
www.newspapers.com/article/hono...
Honolulu Star-Bulletin
25 March 1933
www.newspapers.com/article/hono...
No Kings
San Francisco
San Francisco
October 18, 2025 at 11:06 PM
No Kings
San Francisco
San Francisco
We have learned that the principled right of a decade ago had more in common with the principled left than we thought.
Belief in equal justice under the law, separation of powers, constitutionally protected freedoms, etc, united us, but it took a corrupt despotic regime to make us aware of that.
Belief in equal justice under the law, separation of powers, constitutionally protected freedoms, etc, united us, but it took a corrupt despotic regime to make us aware of that.
October 16, 2025 at 3:04 PM
We have learned that the principled right of a decade ago had more in common with the principled left than we thought.
Belief in equal justice under the law, separation of powers, constitutionally protected freedoms, etc, united us, but it took a corrupt despotic regime to make us aware of that.
Belief in equal justice under the law, separation of powers, constitutionally protected freedoms, etc, united us, but it took a corrupt despotic regime to make us aware of that.
![In the U.S., the general rule is that "[a] person is privileged to use such force as reasonably appears necessary to defend him or herself against an apparent threat of unlawful and immediate violence from another."[1] In cases involving non-deadly force, this means that the person must reasonably believe that their use of force was necessary to prevent imminent, unlawful physical harm.[2] When the use of deadly force is involved in a self-defense claim, the person must also reasonably believe that their use of deadly force is immediately necessary to prevent the other's infliction of great bodily harm or death.[3] Most states no longer require a person to retreat before using deadly force. In the minority of jurisdictions which do require retreat, there is no obligation to retreat when it is unsafe to do so or when one is inside one's own home.[4]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:hfunbop47sm2azdbajfvnf4g/bafkreicfuglhzd5oebanuq6omqytza3c4ngzioitfdlw62gck3ihpngjey@jpeg)
October 14, 2025 at 8:14 PM