Dave Vanness
@djvanness.bsky.social
Economist; professor; health policy and decision science. Advocate for high quality, affordable #HigherEd. Georgetown and UW-Madison alum. Personal views only. #AcademicSky #EconSky #Bayesian
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9790-2988
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9790-2988
I'm gonna be just fine.
November 26, 2025 at 10:54 PM
I'm gonna be just fine.
Reposted by Dave Vanness
When fixed effects aren't fixed...
Important work by @dlmillimet.bsky.social and Marc Bellemare that should influence econometric practice.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Important work by @dlmillimet.bsky.social and Marc Bellemare that should influence econometric practice.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
On the (Mis) Use of the Fixed Effects Estimator
Data that span multiple units and time periods allow controlling for time-invariant heterogeneity correlated with the covariates. While researchers can do this in different ways, the fixed effects es...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
November 26, 2025 at 3:14 PM
When fixed effects aren't fixed...
Important work by @dlmillimet.bsky.social and Marc Bellemare that should influence econometric practice.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Important work by @dlmillimet.bsky.social and Marc Bellemare that should influence econometric practice.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Reposted by Dave Vanness
Given the choice between admitting they were wrong — and obviously so at the time — and blaming Biden for eroding norms surrounding pardons, the news outlets will get busy working on the blame pieces
Have any news outlets that ran scathing front page headlines, op-eds and editorials about Biden pardoning Hunter admitted that they were wrong after we've seen Trump maliciously prosecute Comey, James, McIver etc?
November 26, 2025 at 12:46 PM
Given the choice between admitting they were wrong — and obviously so at the time — and blaming Biden for eroding norms surrounding pardons, the news outlets will get busy working on the blame pieces
Reposted by Dave Vanness
This new policy from NIH is concerning.
It looks like a way to weaponize administrative burden, one of Russell Vought's favorite moves to break gov't.
Background: Program staff / NIH institute directors can move grants around outside peer review order. 1/
It looks like a way to weaponize administrative burden, one of Russell Vought's favorite moves to break gov't.
Background: Program staff / NIH institute directors can move grants around outside peer review order. 1/
This is concerning.
NIH is changing their policy so that staff have to prepare justification for every application that is funded BUT NO DOCUMENTATION FOR APPLICATIONS THAT ARE SKIPPED (BASED ON PERCENTILES).
1/2
NIH is changing their policy so that staff have to prepare justification for every application that is funded BUT NO DOCUMENTATION FOR APPLICATIONS THAT ARE SKIPPED (BASED ON PERCENTILES).
1/2
November 24, 2025 at 3:41 AM
This new policy from NIH is concerning.
It looks like a way to weaponize administrative burden, one of Russell Vought's favorite moves to break gov't.
Background: Program staff / NIH institute directors can move grants around outside peer review order. 1/
It looks like a way to weaponize administrative burden, one of Russell Vought's favorite moves to break gov't.
Background: Program staff / NIH institute directors can move grants around outside peer review order. 1/
Reposted by Dave Vanness
Reposted by Dave Vanness
LISTEN (or read): @chadpbown.com joined @econofact.bsky.social to discuss the rollout & consequences of Trump's sweeping tariffs since "Liberation Day," & how they compare to the tariffs enacted during the first Trump administration.
Assessing the Impact of the ‘Liberation Day’ Tariffs | Econofact Chats
A discussion with Chad Bown on the rollout and consequences of the tariffs the Trump administration put in place in April 2025.
econofact.org
November 25, 2025 at 2:57 PM
LISTEN (or read): @chadpbown.com joined @econofact.bsky.social to discuss the rollout & consequences of Trump's sweeping tariffs since "Liberation Day," & how they compare to the tariffs enacted during the first Trump administration.
Reposted by Dave Vanness
The BBC's has responded in The Guardian that this was a routine editorial decision, but also that it was made on legal advice. Those two explanations don’t fit together. /1
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
November 25, 2025 at 2:40 PM
The BBC's has responded in The Guardian that this was a routine editorial decision, but also that it was made on legal advice. Those two explanations don’t fit together. /1
post a movie from where you are from
November 25, 2025 at 2:51 PM
post a movie from where you are from
Reposted by Dave Vanness
period
I don't understand how anyone can watch how blatantly Grok is manipulated to answer the way ownership desires it to and then act like the other LLM chatbots couldn't possibly be similarly but less obviously compromised to produce responses in whatever way corporate interests and priorities dictate.
November 23, 2025 at 11:21 PM
period
Reposted by Dave Vanness
At least once a week, I am grateful for the world-class liberal arts education I got at U.C. Berkeley
"While other universities report that the humanities are shrinking, at Berkeley, the opposite is true. The music major is the fastest-growing major on campus. We are finding bigger classrooms because film is exploding. English is back to the numbers we saw 15 years ago. We are hiring" bit.ly/4ohKuOe
"The humanities really are a resource — a confidence for living in our times.” Dean Sara Guyer on the modern utility of humanities degrees
This interview originally appeared on the Division of Arts
bit.ly
November 23, 2025 at 9:18 PM
At least once a week, I am grateful for the world-class liberal arts education I got at U.C. Berkeley
Reposted by Dave Vanness
My hot take is that over the next 10 years, we're going to see more emphasis on and investment in the humanities at Ivy League and other fancy schools just as state schools and small privates continue to decimate and even eliminate the humanities.
"While other universities report that the humanities are shrinking, at Berkeley, the opposite is true. The music major is the fastest-growing major on campus. We are finding bigger classrooms because film is exploding. English is back to the numbers we saw 15 years ago. We are hiring" bit.ly/4ohKuOe
"The humanities really are a resource — a confidence for living in our times.” Dean Sara Guyer on the modern utility of humanities degrees
This interview originally appeared on the Division of Arts
bit.ly
November 23, 2025 at 4:13 PM
My hot take is that over the next 10 years, we're going to see more emphasis on and investment in the humanities at Ivy League and other fancy schools just as state schools and small privates continue to decimate and even eliminate the humanities.
Reposted by Dave Vanness
DOGE did not fail in any way to accomplish its goals.
Its goals were never efficiency or saving money.
Its goals were to destroy as much of government as possible forever, and to steal data for the Space Nazi.
DOGE is fading away like bank robbery gangs fade away after the robberies are done.
Its goals were never efficiency or saving money.
Its goals were to destroy as much of government as possible forever, and to steal data for the Space Nazi.
DOGE is fading away like bank robbery gangs fade away after the robberies are done.
Exclusive: DOGE 'doesn't exist' with eight months left on its charter reut.rs/4abeTdx
Exclusive: DOGE 'doesn't exist' with eight months left on its charter
The Department of Government Efficiency claimed to have slashed tens of billions of dollars in expenditures, but it was impossible for outside financial experts to verify that because the unit did not provide detailed public accounting of its work.
reut.rs
November 23, 2025 at 12:26 PM
DOGE did not fail in any way to accomplish its goals.
Its goals were never efficiency or saving money.
Its goals were to destroy as much of government as possible forever, and to steal data for the Space Nazi.
DOGE is fading away like bank robbery gangs fade away after the robberies are done.
Its goals were never efficiency or saving money.
Its goals were to destroy as much of government as possible forever, and to steal data for the Space Nazi.
DOGE is fading away like bank robbery gangs fade away after the robberies are done.
Reposted by Dave Vanness
Woz is a good one.
With alt text. This is how rich people should behave
November 21, 2025 at 11:41 PM
Woz is a good one.
Reposted by Dave Vanness
"Twenty years ago, the U.S. spent almost four times as much as China on research and development. But by 2023, China had almost closed the gap."
Research from ASA members Yu Xie and Junming Huang @princeton.edu illustrates how China is attracting scholars, especially in STEM fields, in the wake of the administration’s funding cuts and immigration restrictions in this @washingtonpost.com article.
Why Trump’s cuts to scientific research are a big win for China
China is attracting American scientific talent, especially in STEM fields, partly due to funding cuts and immigration restrictions under President Donald Trump.
bit.ly
November 17, 2025 at 6:00 PM
"Twenty years ago, the U.S. spent almost four times as much as China on research and development. But by 2023, China had almost closed the gap."
Reposted by Dave Vanness
Trump loving Mamdani is like a heat-seeking missile designed to confound the New York Times
November 21, 2025 at 11:37 PM
Trump loving Mamdani is like a heat-seeking missile designed to confound the New York Times
It's all fun and games until Grok starts controlling attack drones.
Folks, I don’t know how it’s possible, but it gets funnier.
November 21, 2025 at 7:20 PM
It's all fun and games until Grok starts controlling attack drones.
Reposted by Dave Vanness
The DoE has reclassified numerous health professional and other degrees, limiting access to federal student loan programs eligible for the higher OBBBA loan caps from thousands to a few hundred.
As ALWAYS, this is about $$.
We're about to become REALLY "great"...
shorturl.fm/xs7gY
As ALWAYS, this is about $$.
We're about to become REALLY "great"...
shorturl.fm/xs7gY
November 21, 2025 at 12:51 AM
The DoE has reclassified numerous health professional and other degrees, limiting access to federal student loan programs eligible for the higher OBBBA loan caps from thousands to a few hundred.
As ALWAYS, this is about $$.
We're about to become REALLY "great"...
shorturl.fm/xs7gY
As ALWAYS, this is about $$.
We're about to become REALLY "great"...
shorturl.fm/xs7gY
Reposted by Dave Vanness
Econ job market candidate intros.
Candidates, communicate:
1) your name, program, & fields,
2) image of JMP title & abstract + Alt Text,
3) #EconJMP, &
4) a link to your website.
Employers, browse & interact respectfully.
Everyone else, shhhh.
📉📈
Candidates, communicate:
1) your name, program, & fields,
2) image of JMP title & abstract + Alt Text,
3) #EconJMP, &
4) a link to your website.
Employers, browse & interact respectfully.
Everyone else, shhhh.
📉📈
September 15, 2024 at 3:29 PM
Econ job market candidate intros.
Candidates, communicate:
1) your name, program, & fields,
2) image of JMP title & abstract + Alt Text,
3) #EconJMP, &
4) a link to your website.
Employers, browse & interact respectfully.
Everyone else, shhhh.
📉📈
Candidates, communicate:
1) your name, program, & fields,
2) image of JMP title & abstract + Alt Text,
3) #EconJMP, &
4) a link to your website.
Employers, browse & interact respectfully.
Everyone else, shhhh.
📉📈
Reposted by Dave Vanness
Just boosting this solution if you want to do some brms model bootstrapping. It's a very simple model but the whole thing comes together in just a couple minutes and it's very easy to code up
#rstats #statsky #bayes
#rstats #statsky #bayes
Basically, fit the model with chains = 0, then create an update() function with recompile = FALSE and the sampling specs you want. I've usually had success with {{furrr}} for the parallelisation part. Can't take full credit for this one as I needed an LLM to show me how the recompile step worked.
November 21, 2025 at 4:45 AM
Reposted by Dave Vanness
It’s remarkably easy to tell which of my classmates rely on ChatGPT and which don’t, solely based on whether they can explain/justify their choice of answer to a question.
I ran into this yesterday during a group activity and it nearly derailed our whole assignment.
I ran into this yesterday during a group activity and it nearly derailed our whole assignment.
Relying on ChatGPT to teach you about a topic leaves you with shallower knowledge than Googling and reading about it, according to new research that compared what more than 10,000 people knew after using one method or the other.
Shared by @gizmodo.com: buff.ly/yAAHtHq
Shared by @gizmodo.com: buff.ly/yAAHtHq
November 21, 2025 at 1:11 PM
It’s remarkably easy to tell which of my classmates rely on ChatGPT and which don’t, solely based on whether they can explain/justify their choice of answer to a question.
I ran into this yesterday during a group activity and it nearly derailed our whole assignment.
I ran into this yesterday during a group activity and it nearly derailed our whole assignment.
Reposted by Dave Vanness
Forecasters give non-trivial probabilities to a range of outcomes in 2025-2028 that would have been shocking and unimaginable in 2015 www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem... The post itself treats the unprecedented domestic deployment of the military as unimportant.
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
Political scientists warn that US democracy is under threat. Do forecasters expect US democracy to erode?
www.metaculus.com
November 21, 2025 at 1:54 AM
Forecasters give non-trivial probabilities to a range of outcomes in 2025-2028 that would have been shocking and unimaginable in 2015 www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem... The post itself treats the unprecedented domestic deployment of the military as unimportant.
So, I'm reading a student paper that talks about a methodological development that happened "around the turn of the century." Dear reader, he was not talking about 1900. Also, I am old.
November 20, 2025 at 11:09 PM
So, I'm reading a student paper that talks about a methodological development that happened "around the turn of the century." Dear reader, he was not talking about 1900. Also, I am old.
Reposted by Dave Vanness
🚨Attention! AshEcon call for papers! 🚨
www.ashecon.org/2026-minneap...
Due date for abstracts: December 10, 2025
I'm the Program Chair for Health and Development, so would like to encourage global health scholars in particular
Some tips for prospective authors in thread below
www.ashecon.org/2026-minneap...
Due date for abstracts: December 10, 2025
I'm the Program Chair for Health and Development, so would like to encourage global health scholars in particular
Some tips for prospective authors in thread below
2026 Call for Abstracts – ASHEcon
www.ashecon.org
November 20, 2025 at 7:55 PM
🚨Attention! AshEcon call for papers! 🚨
www.ashecon.org/2026-minneap...
Due date for abstracts: December 10, 2025
I'm the Program Chair for Health and Development, so would like to encourage global health scholars in particular
Some tips for prospective authors in thread below
www.ashecon.org/2026-minneap...
Due date for abstracts: December 10, 2025
I'm the Program Chair for Health and Development, so would like to encourage global health scholars in particular
Some tips for prospective authors in thread below