Peterson Institute for International Economics
@piie.com
The Peterson Institute for International Economics is a nonpartisan, independent research institution devoted to studying international economic policy.
Explore our research: piie.com
Explore our research: piie.com
Reposted by Peterson Institute for International Economics
evergreen content
November 20, 2024 at 7:36 PM
evergreen content
“This was a very well-connected bank, corrupt etc., which underscored the banking system in itself is a channel for enrichment of the well-connected,” Adnan Mazarei says. The bank failure added to “a crescendo of the loss of legitimacy of the regime following the Israeli attack.”
A Tehran bank collapsed under the weight of bad loans to regime cronies. For some ordinary Iranians, it was the last straw.
The Obscure Bank Collapse That Sent Iran Into a Tailspin
Bad loans to regime cronies brought down Ayandeh Bank, accelerating a long-running financial crisis.
on.wsj.com
January 14, 2026 at 3:52 PM
“This was a very well-connected bank, corrupt etc., which underscored the banking system in itself is a channel for enrichment of the well-connected,” Adnan Mazarei says. The bank failure added to “a crescendo of the loss of legitimacy of the regime following the Israeli attack.”
Fed independence is operational independence, like a pilot or surgeon, @adamposen.bsky.social explains. You want them to be accountable, but you don't get involved in the technical nitty-gritty of trying to make things work because it backfires.
What Trump's fight with Powell could mean for the Fed's future
President Trump has been trying to bully the Federal Reserve into cutting interest rates. It's a gambit that could lead to more inflation.
www.npr.org
January 14, 2026 at 2:12 PM
Fed independence is operational independence, like a pilot or surgeon, @adamposen.bsky.social explains. You want them to be accountable, but you don't get involved in the technical nitty-gritty of trying to make things work because it backfires.
Our Briefing on central bank independence in practice discusses the evidence on independence, what it actually looks like, accountability for an independent Fed, & more.
Central bank independence in practice
The Peterson Institute for International Economics held a high-level conference in October 2025 in Washington, DC, to analyze the serious issues concerning central bank independence in practice. The g...
www.piie.com
January 14, 2026 at 2:02 PM
Our Briefing on central bank independence in practice discusses the evidence on independence, what it actually looks like, accountability for an independent Fed, & more.
💡Evolving role of Chinese big tech
💡USMCA review
💡Developments in the Russia-Ukraine war
💡Economic crisis in Iran
💡New official US immigration estimates for 2025
💡Elections in Latin America
...& more on what we're watching in 2026:
💡USMCA review
💡Developments in the Russia-Ukraine war
💡Economic crisis in Iran
💡New official US immigration estimates for 2025
💡Elections in Latin America
...& more on what we're watching in 2026:
What PIIE researchers will be watching in 2026
We asked our researchers what they’ll be keeping their eyes on this year. Here’s what they said, lightly edited for length and clarity.
www.piie.com
January 13, 2026 at 10:07 PM
💡Evolving role of Chinese big tech
💡USMCA review
💡Developments in the Russia-Ukraine war
💡Economic crisis in Iran
💡New official US immigration estimates for 2025
💡Elections in Latin America
...& more on what we're watching in 2026:
💡USMCA review
💡Developments in the Russia-Ukraine war
💡Economic crisis in Iran
💡New official US immigration estimates for 2025
💡Elections in Latin America
...& more on what we're watching in 2026:
Reposted by Peterson Institute for International Economics
This is what uncertainty looks like.
Why it takes a while for the inflation impact to come thru from tariffs and deportations.
Also it explains why investment outside of AI has been so weak in the US, despite many things which normally would have led to a boom.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Why it takes a while for the inflation impact to come thru from tariffs and deportations.
Also it explains why investment outside of AI has been so weak in the US, despite many things which normally would have led to a boom.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The Economic Toll of Trump’s Policies Will Soon Be Visible
Mainstream economists have underestimated the cost of all the confusion the administration has unleashed, particularly on trade and immigration.
www.bloomberg.com
January 13, 2026 at 12:33 PM
This is what uncertainty looks like.
Why it takes a while for the inflation impact to come thru from tariffs and deportations.
Also it explains why investment outside of AI has been so weak in the US, despite many things which normally would have led to a boom.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Why it takes a while for the inflation impact to come thru from tariffs and deportations.
Also it explains why investment outside of AI has been so weak in the US, despite many things which normally would have led to a boom.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Peterson Institute for International Economics
My thoughts on the latest attack on the Fed in
@nytopinion.nytimes.com.
So far it is backfiring--and for the same good reasons the Fed was made independent in the first place. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/12/o...
@nytopinion.nytimes.com.
So far it is backfiring--and for the same good reasons the Fed was made independent in the first place. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/12/o...
Opinion | Trump’s Attack on the Fed Is Already Backfiring
www.nytimes.com
January 12, 2026 at 10:58 PM
My thoughts on the latest attack on the Fed in
@nytopinion.nytimes.com.
So far it is backfiring--and for the same good reasons the Fed was made independent in the first place. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/12/o...
@nytopinion.nytimes.com.
So far it is backfiring--and for the same good reasons the Fed was made independent in the first place. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/12/o...
It should be no surprise that it takes time for the paralyzing effects of tariffs & deportations on decision-making by businesses, households & investors to surface in government statistics. The economic toll of Trump's policies is coming, @adamposen.bsky.social writes.
The Economic Toll of Trump’s Policies Will Soon Be Visible
Mainstream economists have underestimated the cost of all the confusion the administration has unleashed, particularly on trade and immigration.
www.bloomberg.com
January 13, 2026 at 2:48 PM
It should be no surprise that it takes time for the paralyzing effects of tariffs & deportations on decision-making by businesses, households & investors to surface in government statistics. The economic toll of Trump's policies is coming, @adamposen.bsky.social writes.
From China to the USMCA to inflation, here's what PIIE researchers will be watching for in 2026:
What PIIE researchers will be watching in 2026
We asked our researchers what they’ll be keeping their eyes on this year. Here’s what they said, lightly edited for length and clarity.
www.piie.com
January 12, 2026 at 8:40 PM
From China to the USMCA to inflation, here's what PIIE researchers will be watching for in 2026:
Reposted by Peterson Institute for International Economics
Central bank independence - the latest evidence based thinking.
Non-partisan take:
Threatening the central bank chair leads to higher inflation with no gain in growth (recent studies and experience bears this out).
www.piie.com/publications...
Non-partisan take:
Threatening the central bank chair leads to higher inflation with no gain in growth (recent studies and experience bears this out).
www.piie.com/publications...
Central bank independence in practice
The Peterson Institute for International Economics held a high-level conference in October 2025 in Washington, DC, to analyze the serious issues concerning central bank independence in practice. The g...
www.piie.com
January 12, 2026 at 3:37 PM
Central bank independence - the latest evidence based thinking.
Non-partisan take:
Threatening the central bank chair leads to higher inflation with no gain in growth (recent studies and experience bears this out).
www.piie.com/publications...
Non-partisan take:
Threatening the central bank chair leads to higher inflation with no gain in growth (recent studies and experience bears this out).
www.piie.com/publications...
In October, we held a conference on central bank independence, discussing why the independence of the @federalreserve.gov should be secured & how far it should extend in practical terms.
Read the Briefing from the conference here:
Read the Briefing from the conference here:
Central bank independence in practice
The Peterson Institute for International Economics held a high-level conference in October 2025 in Washington, DC, to analyze the serious issues concerning central bank independence in practice. The g...
www.piie.com
January 12, 2026 at 2:18 PM
In October, we held a conference on central bank independence, discussing why the independence of the @federalreserve.gov should be secured & how far it should extend in practical terms.
Read the Briefing from the conference here:
Read the Briefing from the conference here:
From a savings-investment perspective, the housing crisis is a major driver of China’s growing external imbalance, Tianlei Huang says.
He explains China's housing downturn & what comes next:
He explains China's housing downturn & what comes next:
Understanding China's Housing Downturn and the Path Ahead - The US-China Business Council
USCBC interviews Tianlei Huang, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, on China's prolonged property downturn, government efforts to stabilize the market, and remaining c...
www.uschina.org
January 9, 2026 at 5:35 PM
From a savings-investment perspective, the housing crisis is a major driver of China’s growing external imbalance, Tianlei Huang says.
He explains China's housing downturn & what comes next:
He explains China's housing downturn & what comes next:
monitoring the situation
(refreshing the feed for jobs day analysis and possible SCOTUS IEEPA decision)
(refreshing the feed for jobs day analysis and possible SCOTUS IEEPA decision)
January 9, 2026 at 2:54 PM
monitoring the situation
(refreshing the feed for jobs day analysis and possible SCOTUS IEEPA decision)
(refreshing the feed for jobs day analysis and possible SCOTUS IEEPA decision)
Europe’s recent modification of its restrictions on genetically engineered crops is a step towards freeing poorer countries to make their own science-based choices & accelerate crop innovation where it is most needed. @cullenhendrix.bsky.social explains:
Europe's new biotech rules could buttress global food security
The European Union recently agreed to ease restrictions on new genomic techniques (NGTs) for food, in the most significant change to Europe’s stringent regulatory approach to crop biotechnology in two...
www.piie.com
January 8, 2026 at 2:26 PM
Europe’s recent modification of its restrictions on genetically engineered crops is a step towards freeing poorer countries to make their own science-based choices & accelerate crop innovation where it is most needed. @cullenhendrix.bsky.social explains:
Not "too big to fail"— @adamposen.bsky.social sees a different but equally troubling problem with stablecoin issuers: “too connected to fail.” The companies are politically connected with private money linked to the White House & stablecoins are tied to US govt debt.
Economic heavyweights sound alarm over new currency – top economist fears panic
His analysis is deeply unsettling. The United States is in the middle of a financial experiment. If it goes wrong, it could end in a financial crisis 2.0.
www.piie.com
January 7, 2026 at 5:21 PM
Not "too big to fail"— @adamposen.bsky.social sees a different but equally troubling problem with stablecoin issuers: “too connected to fail.” The companies are politically connected with private money linked to the White House & stablecoins are tied to US govt debt.
Ukraine will require at least $40 billion/year from foreign & domestic investment during the first decade after the war ends. Policymakers should prioritize reforms to raise investment, attract reliable external finance, & reduce uncertainty for investors.
You only live twice: Financial inflows and growth in a westward-facing Ukraine
The monumental task of rebuilding postwar Ukraine requires early planning and identification of growth strategies. The earlier accession of Eastern European countries to the European Union and NATO of...
www.piie.com
January 7, 2026 at 2:20 PM
Ukraine will require at least $40 billion/year from foreign & domestic investment during the first decade after the war ends. Policymakers should prioritize reforms to raise investment, attract reliable external finance, & reduce uncertainty for investors.
The EU easing restrictions on new genomic techniques for food is an important break from the precautionary reflex that has long shaped EU policy & may also have large, positive effects for low- & mid-income countries dealing with rising food insecurity. By @cullenhendrix.bsky.social:
Europe's new biotech rules could buttress global food security
The European Union recently agreed to ease restrictions on new genomic techniques (NGTs) for food, in the most significant change to Europe’s stringent regulatory approach to crop biotechnology in two...
www.piie.com
January 6, 2026 at 6:17 PM
The EU easing restrictions on new genomic techniques for food is an important break from the precautionary reflex that has long shaped EU policy & may also have large, positive effects for low- & mid-income countries dealing with rising food insecurity. By @cullenhendrix.bsky.social:
NEW: Early, sustained, & well-governed foreign capital inflows offer Ukraine its most realistic pathway to rapid postwar reconstruction & income growth. The experience of Eastern European countries that joined the EU & NATO points to the possibilities, Maurice Obstfeld & Yuriy Gorodnichenko write:
You only live twice: Financial inflows and growth in a westward-facing Ukraine
The monumental task of rebuilding postwar Ukraine requires early planning and identification of growth strategies. The earlier accession of Eastern European countries to the European Union and NATO of...
www.piie.com
January 6, 2026 at 5:02 PM
NEW: Early, sustained, & well-governed foreign capital inflows offer Ukraine its most realistic pathway to rapid postwar reconstruction & income growth. The experience of Eastern European countries that joined the EU & NATO points to the possibilities, Maurice Obstfeld & Yuriy Gorodnichenko write:
Reposted by Peterson Institute for International Economics
#Hunger is rising while advanced economies — especially the US — pull back on humanitarian and agricultural aid. A new #EU policy on gene-edited crops could help strengthen global food security, especially in developing countries.
My latest for @piie.com.
My latest for @piie.com.
Europe's new biotech rules could buttress global food security
The European Union recently agreed to ease restrictions on new genomic techniques (NGTs) for food, in the most significant change to Europe’s stringent regulatory approach to crop biotechnology in two...
www.piie.com
January 6, 2026 at 3:22 PM
Reposted by Peterson Institute for International Economics
This major US financial stability risk has not been getting sufficient attention.
So, I am using this feature I did with the Danish "Borsen" - in English - to try to raise this concern.
If you find the argument clear and therefore worrying, please circulate, thanks.
www.piie.com/commentary/o...
So, I am using this feature I did with the Danish "Borsen" - in English - to try to raise this concern.
If you find the argument clear and therefore worrying, please circulate, thanks.
www.piie.com/commentary/o...
Economic heavyweights sound alarm over new currency – top economist fears panic
His analysis is deeply unsettling. The United States is in the middle of a financial experiment. If it goes wrong, it could end in a financial crisis 2.0.
www.piie.com
January 5, 2026 at 6:24 PM
This major US financial stability risk has not been getting sufficient attention.
So, I am using this feature I did with the Danish "Borsen" - in English - to try to raise this concern.
If you find the argument clear and therefore worrying, please circulate, thanks.
www.piie.com/commentary/o...
So, I am using this feature I did with the Danish "Borsen" - in English - to try to raise this concern.
If you find the argument clear and therefore worrying, please circulate, thanks.
www.piie.com/commentary/o...
“You can have volcanoes in the economy that you haven’t seen yet,” @adamposen.bsky.social says, referencing Emily Dickinson. Stablecoins are one: a latent threat that could erupt & trigger a financial meltdown. The lava could cause destruction reminiscent of what happened in 2008.
Economic heavyweights sound alarm over new currency – top economist fears panic
His analysis is deeply unsettling. The United States is in the middle of a financial experiment. If it goes wrong, it could end in a financial crisis 2.0.
www.piie.com
January 5, 2026 at 6:07 PM
“You can have volcanoes in the economy that you haven’t seen yet,” @adamposen.bsky.social says, referencing Emily Dickinson. Stablecoins are one: a latent threat that could erupt & trigger a financial meltdown. The lava could cause destruction reminiscent of what happened in 2008.
Reposted by Peterson Institute for International Economics
New interview in Le Monde (en francais)
The US can bully, but Europe has more agency than it thinks. Yet Europe cannot succeed trying to play the same game as China or US. It has to employ attraction to counter and compete with threats.
www.lemonde.fr/economie/art...
The US can bully, but Europe has more agency than it thinks. Yet Europe cannot succeed trying to play the same game as China or US. It has to employ attraction to counter and compete with threats.
www.lemonde.fr/economie/art...
Adam Posen, économiste : « La hausse des droits de douane, c’est cher et ça n’a aucun sens »
Le président du Peterson Institute, think tank indépendant, analyse avec sévérité la politique de l’administration Trump axée sur les taxes douanières. Une stratégie incohérente et irréaliste, selon l...
www.lemonde.fr
January 3, 2026 at 3:14 PM
New interview in Le Monde (en francais)
The US can bully, but Europe has more agency than it thinks. Yet Europe cannot succeed trying to play the same game as China or US. It has to employ attraction to counter and compete with threats.
www.lemonde.fr/economie/art...
The US can bully, but Europe has more agency than it thinks. Yet Europe cannot succeed trying to play the same game as China or US. It has to employ attraction to counter and compete with threats.
www.lemonde.fr/economie/art...
Average US tariffs on China: 47.5%
Average Chinese tariffs on US: 31.9%
Average US tariffs on the rest of the world: 18.4%
Average Chinese tariffs on the rest of the world: 6.5%
#PIIECharts
Average Chinese tariffs on US: 31.9%
Average US tariffs on the rest of the world: 18.4%
Average Chinese tariffs on the rest of the world: 6.5%
#PIIECharts
December 24, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Average US tariffs on China: 47.5%
Average Chinese tariffs on US: 31.9%
Average US tariffs on the rest of the world: 18.4%
Average Chinese tariffs on the rest of the world: 6.5%
#PIIECharts
Average Chinese tariffs on US: 31.9%
Average US tariffs on the rest of the world: 18.4%
Average Chinese tariffs on the rest of the world: 6.5%
#PIIECharts
We have once again updated our trade war timeline:
Trump's trade war timeline 2.0: An up-to-date guide
President Donald Trump started his second term in office with momentous plans to change US trade policy to achieve various economic and nontrade related aims. This timeline tracks the development of t...
www.piie.com
December 24, 2025 at 3:25 PM
We have once again updated our trade war timeline:
Reposted by Peterson Institute for International Economics
New piece in @nytopinion.nytimes.com trying to explain the GDP boom combined with job bust. I don't have a definitive answer--in fact I'm skeptical of grand unified theories given how the data is often revised and noisy. As always, only update a little on this news. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/23/o...
Opinion | Economic Growth Is Up. Unemployment Is, Too. What’s Going On?
www.nytimes.com
December 23, 2025 at 3:30 PM
New piece in @nytopinion.nytimes.com trying to explain the GDP boom combined with job bust. I don't have a definitive answer--in fact I'm skeptical of grand unified theories given how the data is often revised and noisy. As always, only update a little on this news. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/23/o...