M.J. Ferguson
@mattferg26.bsky.social
British ecosocialist. Psephology hobbyist. Aspiring to use my uni education. Greens member (my views ≠ theirs). Duck enthusiast. 🏳️🌈🍉 (also still on twtr)
Reposted by M.J. Ferguson
Looking forward to the 2029 general election campaign, when the incumbent government will run on "Public services haven't improved, those tax rises we announced years ago just kicked in, and now we have to increase immigration because it went too low and we are skint again."
The government figuring this out slowly over the coming two years is going to be quite something to behold.
I think the government meant to cut net migration but have accidentally overshot the target by a lot. They haven’t realised this yet.
November 27, 2025 at 4:57 PM
Looking forward to the 2029 general election campaign, when the incumbent government will run on "Public services haven't improved, those tax rises we announced years ago just kicked in, and now we have to increase immigration because it went too low and we are skint again."
Reposted by M.J. Ferguson
Yeah, it's astonishing Labour didn't just bank the win and move on.
"We took net migration from 800,000 to 300,000" would have been enough for most marginal voters without the, you know, catastrophe they're engineering.
"We took net migration from 800,000 to 300,000" would have been enough for most marginal voters without the, you know, catastrophe they're engineering.
I think the government meant to cut net migration but have accidentally overshot the target by a lot. They haven’t realised this yet.
November 27, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Yeah, it's astonishing Labour didn't just bank the win and move on.
"We took net migration from 800,000 to 300,000" would have been enough for most marginal voters without the, you know, catastrophe they're engineering.
"We took net migration from 800,000 to 300,000" would have been enough for most marginal voters without the, you know, catastrophe they're engineering.
Reposted by M.J. Ferguson
1) genuine life changing moment of my early 20s was realizing I actually didn't have to do this at all. tell the youths
2) I feel like there's a class discussion to be had around the stakes of this kind of decision though
2) I feel like there's a class discussion to be had around the stakes of this kind of decision though
So many men go through life like that. You can play poker because it's right-coded, you can't enjoy fruity alcoholic drinks because they're women-coded, you can't lick an ice cream cone because it's gay-coded. All day, every day, choosing and judging things based on coding for narrow norms.
November 26, 2025 at 3:43 PM
1) genuine life changing moment of my early 20s was realizing I actually didn't have to do this at all. tell the youths
2) I feel like there's a class discussion to be had around the stakes of this kind of decision though
2) I feel like there's a class discussion to be had around the stakes of this kind of decision though
Reposted by M.J. Ferguson
the genAI bubble relies on you conflating the genuinely tremendous potential of using machine learning for e.g. image recognition in radiotherapy, protein folding, simulations in power systems etc with the child abuse image generators and schizophrenic delusions generators
People on BlueSky: AI is useless! A stochastic parrot!
Mathematicians/biologists/physicists: It is already helping us do frontier technical research and in some cases solve open problems arxiv.org/pdf/2511.16072
(There are of course, as always, many caveats, but the paper is genuinely remarkable)
Mathematicians/biologists/physicists: It is already helping us do frontier technical research and in some cases solve open problems arxiv.org/pdf/2511.16072
(There are of course, as always, many caveats, but the paper is genuinely remarkable)
arxiv.org
November 26, 2025 at 4:11 PM
the genAI bubble relies on you conflating the genuinely tremendous potential of using machine learning for e.g. image recognition in radiotherapy, protein folding, simulations in power systems etc with the child abuse image generators and schizophrenic delusions generators
Reposted by M.J. Ferguson
Me logging in every day
November 26, 2025 at 3:58 PM
Me logging in every day
Reposted by M.J. Ferguson
The year is 2125, the Chancellor unveils they will extend the emergency 5p cut on Fuel Duty, as per the long tradition whose origins are mysterious and forgotten.
November 25, 2025 at 5:39 PM
The year is 2125, the Chancellor unveils they will extend the emergency 5p cut on Fuel Duty, as per the long tradition whose origins are mysterious and forgotten.
Reposted by M.J. Ferguson
This is another thing I had to cut from my piece - the minimum wage is best understood as an anti-poverty measure *for single or childless couples at the start of their working lives*. But it's not a lever that helps most people struggling to make ends meet. Only cash transfers do that.
November 25, 2025 at 4:39 PM
This is another thing I had to cut from my piece - the minimum wage is best understood as an anti-poverty measure *for single or childless couples at the start of their working lives*. But it's not a lever that helps most people struggling to make ends meet. Only cash transfers do that.
Reposted by M.J. Ferguson
I do try not to get too alarmist but I do have an increasing concern about the possibility of a major collapse in institutional legitimacy (government, courts, media) arising from what is a pretty undeniable shift on their part to the far right positions on most social issues
November 25, 2025 at 12:47 PM
I do try not to get too alarmist but I do have an increasing concern about the possibility of a major collapse in institutional legitimacy (government, courts, media) arising from what is a pretty undeniable shift on their part to the far right positions on most social issues
Reposted by M.J. Ferguson
any ideological position that glorifies hierarchy and normalizes dominance as much as this one does will eventually become sexually depraved, no matter how much Temu-grade religion it sprinkles on top of the cupcake
Megyn Kelly: "I know somebody very close to this case…Jeffrey Epstein, in this person's view, was not a pedophile…He was into the barely legal type, like he liked 15 year old girls…He wasn't into like 8 year olds…There's a difference between a 15 year old and a 5 year old."
November 13, 2025 at 6:57 PM
any ideological position that glorifies hierarchy and normalizes dominance as much as this one does will eventually become sexually depraved, no matter how much Temu-grade religion it sprinkles on top of the cupcake
Reposted by M.J. Ferguson
Also most voters have just never thought remotely seriously about policy. “Should we get rid of illegal immigrants? Well, of course; they’re illegal!” There’s nothing deeper than that going on until they start seeing what that actually entails.
Some Dems and pundits overread the significance of Trump's win. They looked at dissatisfaction with the border and discerned a seismic cultural reaction to immigration levels inside the country. The former was real. The latter is a mirage.
(h/t @gelliottmorris.com)
newrepublic.com/article/2030...
(h/t @gelliottmorris.com)
newrepublic.com/article/2030...
November 13, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Also most voters have just never thought remotely seriously about policy. “Should we get rid of illegal immigrants? Well, of course; they’re illegal!” There’s nothing deeper than that going on until they start seeing what that actually entails.
Reposted by M.J. Ferguson
🇺🇸🗳️ L'obtention par les démocrates d'une majorité au Sénat après les midterms de l'an prochain semblait jusqu'à présent folle tant les sièges en jeu leur sont défavorables. Mais l'ampleur de leur victoire la semaine dernière et les derniers sondages finissent par rendre ce scénario envisageable.
Ohio - Senate Polling:
🔵 Brown: 48%
🔴 Husted: 45%
Hart Research / Sept 22, 2025 - (Released today)
🔵 Brown: 48%
🔴 Husted: 45%
Hart Research / Sept 22, 2025 - (Released today)
November 12, 2025 at 11:04 PM
🇺🇸🗳️ L'obtention par les démocrates d'une majorité au Sénat après les midterms de l'an prochain semblait jusqu'à présent folle tant les sièges en jeu leur sont défavorables. Mais l'ampleur de leur victoire la semaine dernière et les derniers sondages finissent par rendre ce scénario envisageable.
Reposted by M.J. Ferguson
Realignment, enshitification ratchet, or barbarism are basically the broad paths forward
If the US system remains trapped in an endless knife fight between a party of good government and a party of nihilistic governance then Europeans need to accept that the US will no longer be a stable partner long after Trump is gone
I'd just like to point out that we spent an entire shipment of air defense interceptors' worth of money on new signs for a name change that isn't even legally the name of the DoD.
Ukraine is currently experiencing rolling blackouts from Russian strikes, btw.
Ukraine is currently experiencing rolling blackouts from Russian strikes, btw.
November 12, 2025 at 10:03 PM
Realignment, enshitification ratchet, or barbarism are basically the broad paths forward
Reposted by M.J. Ferguson
For all the leftist, liberal and moderate conservative schadenfreude over Trump's current predicament in the face of the Epstein files, a loss of control among the older generation of MAGA bosses opens up the Republican Party to a full hostile takeover by its Fuentes faction
November 12, 2025 at 10:08 PM
For all the leftist, liberal and moderate conservative schadenfreude over Trump's current predicament in the face of the Epstein files, a loss of control among the older generation of MAGA bosses opens up the Republican Party to a full hostile takeover by its Fuentes faction
Reposted by M.J. Ferguson
One big partisan asymmetry is Democrats have tended to approach politics as “find out what voters care about, then talk about it a lot,” and Republicans have tended to approach politics as “talk about it a lot, then voters will care about it.”
November 12, 2025 at 7:54 PM
One big partisan asymmetry is Democrats have tended to approach politics as “find out what voters care about, then talk about it a lot,” and Republicans have tended to approach politics as “talk about it a lot, then voters will care about it.”
Reposted by M.J. Ferguson
it is fucking infuriating to think how one different staffing choice, someone like Doug Jones, could have made all the difference in the world
November 12, 2025 at 5:22 PM
it is fucking infuriating to think how one different staffing choice, someone like Doug Jones, could have made all the difference in the world
Reposted by M.J. Ferguson
upholding norms. now let's see how successful that project has been...
so uh, what was Merrick Garland doing
November 12, 2025 at 5:21 PM
upholding norms. now let's see how successful that project has been...
Reposted by M.J. Ferguson
The distinction is that Starmer is a legitimately checked out, gormless prick, going to football matches while Elon Musk foments race riots a stone’s throw away, while Wes’s entire career has been loudly projecting a ‘look how bad I want it’ energy. Which will probably be enough for the lobby.
I guess this depends on how far you think this is genuine idiocy and incompetence vs hamfisted panto intended to convey the message “Back Wes against Chump (x) or face bond market obliteration”. The latter would suggest longer term thinking, but I concede the former would be more in character.
November 12, 2025 at 8:32 AM
The distinction is that Starmer is a legitimately checked out, gormless prick, going to football matches while Elon Musk foments race riots a stone’s throw away, while Wes’s entire career has been loudly projecting a ‘look how bad I want it’ energy. Which will probably be enough for the lobby.
Reposted by M.J. Ferguson
At the risk of talking shop: there are just under 50 Government Bills before Parliament (including Employment Rights, English Devolution, Great British Energy) which aren’t getting the media attention that Coalition Bills at a similar point did. We’re missing proper scrutiny outside of Parliament.
This whole Streeting vs Starmer story is such a Westminster bubble inanity from a bored media class that has gotten addicted to toppling governments and abdicated any responsibility for what they're actually meant to be doing in a healthy society
November 12, 2025 at 1:55 PM
At the risk of talking shop: there are just under 50 Government Bills before Parliament (including Employment Rights, English Devolution, Great British Energy) which aren’t getting the media attention that Coalition Bills at a similar point did. We’re missing proper scrutiny outside of Parliament.
Reposted by M.J. Ferguson
The political forces that exploit lack of trust in institutions work to undermine institutions, further reducing trust in institutions, which they exploit for more power.
Much of the public blames the institutions, the govt, the elites in general, not the underminers specifically.
Tough problem.
Much of the public blames the institutions, the govt, the elites in general, not the underminers specifically.
Tough problem.
The thing to understand about this is that this catastrophe in the UK has redounded to the political benefit of the very same people and political movement that pushed for it! Extremely perverse.
I wonder if the United States can learn anything from the last time a major industrialized country decided to isolate itself from the rest of the world?
Almost a decade after the Brexit vote, GDP in the UK is around 6-8% lower relative to peer countries. (Source: www.nber.org/papers/w34459)
Almost a decade after the Brexit vote, GDP in the UK is around 6-8% lower relative to peer countries. (Source: www.nber.org/papers/w34459)
November 11, 2025 at 9:32 PM
The political forces that exploit lack of trust in institutions work to undermine institutions, further reducing trust in institutions, which they exploit for more power.
Much of the public blames the institutions, the govt, the elites in general, not the underminers specifically.
Tough problem.
Much of the public blames the institutions, the govt, the elites in general, not the underminers specifically.
Tough problem.
Reposted by M.J. Ferguson
I think we have fully established that punching your own voters is this only recognisable policy program of this government to date.
November 11, 2025 at 10:04 PM
I think we have fully established that punching your own voters is this only recognisable policy program of this government to date.
Reposted by M.J. Ferguson
Dems are not online and they are very proud of not being online. It’s like being proud in 1938 of reading books and not listening to the radio in: good job, how very grown-up of you, and also you’re never going to grasp where all this antisemitism comes from, because you’re not where the people are.
bees.leaflet.pub/3m5f5jfimlc2... Democratic Senators make healthy choices for themselves and their families, by not being online and living in reality where most people aren't insane white hats and black hats, and that's why us too-online folks get frustrated with them - and we're right
Hyperreality & Resistance - Bees and Spiders and Other Stuff
Democratic Politics in Heightened Reality in the Second Trump Era
bees.leaflet.pub
November 11, 2025 at 10:37 PM
Dems are not online and they are very proud of not being online. It’s like being proud in 1938 of reading books and not listening to the radio in: good job, how very grown-up of you, and also you’re never going to grasp where all this antisemitism comes from, because you’re not where the people are.
Reposted by M.J. Ferguson
Starmer allies coming out to defend him whilst simultaneously, accidentally and massively publicising the fact he might be ousted is very on-brand for this No10 operation.
November 11, 2025 at 9:48 PM
Starmer allies coming out to defend him whilst simultaneously, accidentally and massively publicising the fact he might be ousted is very on-brand for this No10 operation.
Reposted by M.J. Ferguson
by request: the last decade of UK politics as parties & as blocks
(left = Lab+LD+GRN, right = Con+Ref/Ukip)
(left = Lab+LD+GRN, right = Con+Ref/Ukip)
November 4, 2025 at 3:15 PM
by request: the last decade of UK politics as parties & as blocks
(left = Lab+LD+GRN, right = Con+Ref/Ukip)
(left = Lab+LD+GRN, right = Con+Ref/Ukip)
Reposted by M.J. Ferguson
I remember someone pointed out you could pretty much take over a large chunk of British politics without very much money, and then someone did
I've spent *weeks* working on this special report for @thenewworldmag.bsky.social on GB News co-owner Paul Marshall – and the astonishing, unprecedented influence network he's built on the UK's right. There's never been anything like it before. www.thenewworld.co.uk/james-ball-p...
Paul Marshall, the man who owns the right
The multimillionaire controls a network of news channels, publications and think tanks that the left could only dream of. If Reform or the Tories win the next election, he will become the country’s mo...
www.thenewworld.co.uk
November 4, 2025 at 1:17 PM
I remember someone pointed out you could pretty much take over a large chunk of British politics without very much money, and then someone did
Reposted by M.J. Ferguson
i want to repeat this: mamdani and spanberger have run similar campaigns tailored to their respective electorates and it is maddening to watch political journalists attempt to create some broad contrast where none exist
the other thing about this is that there is no reason to pit these candidates against each other? each are good fits for their respective electorates and each shows the value of vigorous campaigns focused on the stated material problems of voters.
November 4, 2025 at 1:37 PM
i want to repeat this: mamdani and spanberger have run similar campaigns tailored to their respective electorates and it is maddening to watch political journalists attempt to create some broad contrast where none exist