Nicholas Grossman
@nicholasgrossman.bsky.social
International Relations prof at U. Illinois. Editor of Arc Digital. Author “Drones and Terrorism.” Politics, national security, and occasional nerdery.
Reposted by Nicholas Grossman
Occam's razor: The pipe bomb suspect thought the election was stolen.
Hanlon's razor: The FBI couldn't figure out how to read T-Mobile cell phone data.
Hanlon's razor: The FBI couldn't figure out how to read T-Mobile cell phone data.
"For four years, a tranche of cellphone data provided to the FBI by T-Mobile US sat on a digital shelf because investigators couldn’t figure out how to read it, people familiar with the matter said."
www.wsj.com/politics/nat...
www.wsj.com/politics/nat...
How a Tech-Savvy Officer Finally Cracked the Jan. 6 Pipe-Bombs Case
Investigators used powerful tools to obtain mountains of data, but couldn’t decipher some of it until recently.
www.wsj.com
December 15, 2025 at 8:45 PM
Occam's razor: The pipe bomb suspect thought the election was stolen.
Hanlon's razor: The FBI couldn't figure out how to read T-Mobile cell phone data.
Hanlon's razor: The FBI couldn't figure out how to read T-Mobile cell phone data.
Stephen Miller’s top intellectual influences include Sam Huntington.
This is just one bit from an interesting deep dive on Miller by @gregsargent.bsky.social, but I wanted to highlight it for poli sci types.
Turns out dividing the world into supposedly distinct civilizations can be used for ill.
This is just one bit from an interesting deep dive on Miller by @gregsargent.bsky.social, but I wanted to highlight it for poli sci types.
Turns out dividing the world into supposedly distinct civilizations can be used for ill.
Steve Bannon tells us that among Stephen Miller's leading intellectual influences are Pat Buchanan, Oswald Spengler, and Samuel Huntington.
So we did a side-by-side comparison of some of Miller's language with Buchanan's.
(h/t @lioneltrolling.bsky.social)
newrepublic.com/article/2041...
So we did a side-by-side comparison of some of Miller's language with Buchanan's.
(h/t @lioneltrolling.bsky.social)
newrepublic.com/article/2041...
December 15, 2025 at 8:24 PM
Stephen Miller’s top intellectual influences include Sam Huntington.
This is just one bit from an interesting deep dive on Miller by @gregsargent.bsky.social, but I wanted to highlight it for poli sci types.
Turns out dividing the world into supposedly distinct civilizations can be used for ill.
This is just one bit from an interesting deep dive on Miller by @gregsargent.bsky.social, but I wanted to highlight it for poli sci types.
Turns out dividing the world into supposedly distinct civilizations can be used for ill.
Right-wing influencers made up that Democrats celebrated Charlie Kirk’s murder, and tried an up-is-down lie that they’d never celebrate political violence, then Trump smashed though that Kool Aid Man style—as per his wont—so the influencers are now pretending that’s unusual and that they dislike it.
December 15, 2025 at 8:20 PM
Right-wing influencers made up that Democrats celebrated Charlie Kirk’s murder, and tried an up-is-down lie that they’d never celebrate political violence, then Trump smashed though that Kool Aid Man style—as per his wont—so the influencers are now pretending that’s unusual and that they dislike it.
When the government claims it stopped a terrorist attack, a degree of skepticism was always warranted—how far along was the plot before an undercover officer got involved? what would have actually happened?—but not insurmountable skepticism.
Now? How could anyone believe what federal officials say.
Now? How could anyone believe what federal officials say.
I’m finding it increasingly hard to report anything delivered by “official sources” in the US. Could be true, could be a coverup, could be completely made up for nefarious ends.
It’s a country now where no one really has any idea what’s actually going on.
It’s a country now where no one really has any idea what’s actually going on.
December 15, 2025 at 7:06 PM
When the government claims it stopped a terrorist attack, a degree of skepticism was always warranted—how far along was the plot before an undercover officer got involved? what would have actually happened?—but not insurmountable skepticism.
Now? How could anyone believe what federal officials say.
Now? How could anyone believe what federal officials say.
Publicly celebrating violence against people on the broadly-defined left is exactly what a lot of MAGA voted for. Even better if lying about the reason for the violence.
That’s hardly a secret or surprise. See, for example, the right’s collective laughs and cheers after Paul Pelosi got assaulted.
That’s hardly a secret or surprise. See, for example, the right’s collective laughs and cheers after Paul Pelosi got assaulted.
December 15, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Publicly celebrating violence against people on the broadly-defined left is exactly what a lot of MAGA voted for. Even better if lying about the reason for the violence.
That’s hardly a secret or surprise. See, for example, the right’s collective laughs and cheers after Paul Pelosi got assaulted.
That’s hardly a secret or surprise. See, for example, the right’s collective laughs and cheers after Paul Pelosi got assaulted.
It’s difficult to get a man to understand why people don’t want to post on his favorite website when the website promotes his stuff and stifles others, making his—but not their—salary dependent on his not understanding.
(Apologies to Upton Sinclair)
(Apologies to Upton Sinclair)
December 15, 2025 at 6:55 PM
It’s difficult to get a man to understand why people don’t want to post on his favorite website when the website promotes his stuff and stifles others, making his—but not their—salary dependent on his not understanding.
(Apologies to Upton Sinclair)
(Apologies to Upton Sinclair)
What's an example of the right becoming less dangerous due to someone posting on Twitter/X?
What's something bad they were doing that they did less after seeing critical posts? Or something bad that would've happened but was avoided by persuasive posting?
I can't think of any, even hypothetically.
What's something bad they were doing that they did less after seeing critical posts? Or something bad that would've happened but was avoided by persuasive posting?
I can't think of any, even hypothetically.
IMO it's hard to combat the dangerousness of the right by participating in a platform where they aren't present.
I think the best way to explain the X vs Bluesky preference is whether a person thinks the left is more annoying than the right is dangerous.
The reason so many Noah Smiths end up on the X side of that equation is that while the left annoys them personally, the right mostly endangers other people.
The reason so many Noah Smiths end up on the X side of that equation is that while the left annoys them personally, the right mostly endangers other people.
December 15, 2025 at 5:23 PM
What's an example of the right becoming less dangerous due to someone posting on Twitter/X?
What's something bad they were doing that they did less after seeing critical posts? Or something bad that would've happened but was avoided by persuasive posting?
I can't think of any, even hypothetically.
What's something bad they were doing that they did less after seeing critical posts? Or something bad that would've happened but was avoided by persuasive posting?
I can't think of any, even hypothetically.
Small drones are playing such a big role in the Russia-Ukraine war not because they've proven superior, but because no one has air superiority, air defense is weak, and attempts at complex combined arms have broken down.
US-China wouldn't look like that.
Very good, timely piece by Justin Bronk.
US-China wouldn't look like that.
Very good, timely piece by Justin Bronk.
America’s Drone Delusion
Why the lessons of Ukraine don’t apply to a conflict with China.
www.foreignaffairs.com
December 15, 2025 at 5:09 PM
Small drones are playing such a big role in the Russia-Ukraine war not because they've proven superior, but because no one has air superiority, air defense is weak, and attempts at complex combined arms have broken down.
US-China wouldn't look like that.
Very good, timely piece by Justin Bronk.
US-China wouldn't look like that.
Very good, timely piece by Justin Bronk.
Bondi Beach terrorists pledged allegiance to ISIS, say Australian media.
Looks like "self-starters." They share a terrorist group's ideology, but aren't members, and took action on their own without support or even contact.
Like a warped version of the activist mantra: think globally, act locally.
Looks like "self-starters." They share a terrorist group's ideology, but aren't members, and took action on their own without support or even contact.
Like a warped version of the activist mantra: think globally, act locally.
December 15, 2025 at 3:47 PM
Bondi Beach terrorists pledged allegiance to ISIS, say Australian media.
Looks like "self-starters." They share a terrorist group's ideology, but aren't members, and took action on their own without support or even contact.
Like a warped version of the activist mantra: think globally, act locally.
Looks like "self-starters." They share a terrorist group's ideology, but aren't members, and took action on their own without support or even contact.
Like a warped version of the activist mantra: think globally, act locally.
What if the social media experience some seek is not post-truth rhetorical combat with the deck stacked against them? What if they prefer conversations and good faith engagement? Why wouldn’t that be okay?
"Bluesky is an echo chamber."
"Bluesky doesn't have enough reach"
"Liberals must return to X to challenge the far right"
I'm not a tech bro or a journalist. Your priorities are not my priorities. Stop telling me I need to do anything other than chat about comics & telly with people who seem nice.
"Bluesky doesn't have enough reach"
"Liberals must return to X to challenge the far right"
I'm not a tech bro or a journalist. Your priorities are not my priorities. Stop telling me I need to do anything other than chat about comics & telly with people who seem nice.
December 15, 2025 at 2:23 PM
What if the social media experience some seek is not post-truth rhetorical combat with the deck stacked against them? What if they prefer conversations and good faith engagement? Why wouldn’t that be okay?
Reposted by Nicholas Grossman
i am once again asking who the "leftist extremists in the faculty lounge" shaping democratic party priorities are, and what policies it is that they are instituting
December 14, 2025 at 7:32 PM
i am once again asking who the "leftist extremists in the faculty lounge" shaping democratic party priorities are, and what policies it is that they are instituting
A piece of software spread a bigoted lie on the website run by a bigoted liar, lining up with the openly bigoted claims frequently pushed by its owner. This must be an accidental software error. As were the other recent examples (plural) of the same software doing the same sort of thing. Must be.
one thing I cannot stand is how they're running interference for the bot
"is glitching" please have the smallest amount of curiosity to ask why these 'glitches' only ever go in one direction
"is glitching" please have the smallest amount of curiosity to ask why these 'glitches' only ever go in one direction
Grok Is Glitching And Spewing Misinformation About The Bondi Beach Shooting
Among other problems, the chatbot is spewing misinformation about the horrific Bondi Beach shooting in Australia.
gizmodo.com
December 14, 2025 at 7:37 PM
A piece of software spread a bigoted lie on the website run by a bigoted liar, lining up with the openly bigoted claims frequently pushed by its owner. This must be an accidental software error. As were the other recent examples (plural) of the same software doing the same sort of thing. Must be.
It is almost always a lot less costly to oppose an aggressor as soon as possible, than to appease an aggressor and hope that'll be the end of it.
December 14, 2025 at 5:37 PM
It is almost always a lot less costly to oppose an aggressor as soon as possible, than to appease an aggressor and hope that'll be the end of it.
It's amazing that an unarmed man stopped one of the Bondi Beach shooters, preventing the attack from being even worse.
And it's sad how many feel compelled to note that the hero is Muslim, countering way-too-prevalent bigotry that says hero/villain is inherent to ethno-religious identity.
And it's sad how many feel compelled to note that the hero is Muslim, countering way-too-prevalent bigotry that says hero/villain is inherent to ethno-religious identity.
December 14, 2025 at 5:10 PM
It's amazing that an unarmed man stopped one of the Bondi Beach shooters, preventing the attack from being even worse.
And it's sad how many feel compelled to note that the hero is Muslim, countering way-too-prevalent bigotry that says hero/villain is inherent to ethno-religious identity.
And it's sad how many feel compelled to note that the hero is Muslim, countering way-too-prevalent bigotry that says hero/villain is inherent to ethno-religious identity.
But David French, the guys flipping out over Drag Queen Story Hour are the weak men creating hard times.
If they think something has gone terribly wrong, and that the thing is people reading books to kids at a voluntary family event, that's insanely weak. And an excuse to act on irrational hatred.
If they think something has gone terribly wrong, and that the thing is people reading books to kids at a voluntary family event, that's insanely weak. And an excuse to act on irrational hatred.
December 14, 2025 at 2:51 PM
But David French, the guys flipping out over Drag Queen Story Hour are the weak men creating hard times.
If they think something has gone terribly wrong, and that the thing is people reading books to kids at a voluntary family event, that's insanely weak. And an excuse to act on irrational hatred.
If they think something has gone terribly wrong, and that the thing is people reading books to kids at a voluntary family event, that's insanely weak. And an excuse to act on irrational hatred.
Is it possible that there aren't as many Charlie Kirk and Bari Weiss fans in America as we were led to believe? That it's a relatively niche market, not Voice of the People, and extensively served already? Huh.
(But the new owners are in it for ideology, propaganda, and corruption, not to sell ads)
(But the new owners are in it for ideology, propaganda, and corruption, not to sell ads)
Major advertisers appeared to sit out a new CBS News town hall telecast Saturday, moderated by Bari Weiss and featuring an interview with Erika Kirk.
Lack of Madison Avenue support could challenge the viability of the format, which Weiss wants to expand
variety.com/2025/tv/news...
Lack of Madison Avenue support could challenge the viability of the format, which Weiss wants to expand
variety.com/2025/tv/news...
Big Advertisers Appear Wary of CBS News’ Bari Weiss Town Hall Format
Many major advertisers appeared to sit out a new CBS News town hall format moderated by Bari Weiss and featuring a conversation with Erika Kirk
variety.com
December 14, 2025 at 2:42 PM
Is it possible that there aren't as many Charlie Kirk and Bari Weiss fans in America as we were led to believe? That it's a relatively niche market, not Voice of the People, and extensively served already? Huh.
(But the new owners are in it for ideology, propaganda, and corruption, not to sell ads)
(But the new owners are in it for ideology, propaganda, and corruption, not to sell ads)
Terrorist attacks on people gathering to celebrate feel like an extra twist of the knife. With the Hanukah attack in Australia, it was families, including kids, getting together on a beach for a happy event.
And antisemitic incidents in Australia have risen this year, making it even more concerning.
And antisemitic incidents in Australia have risen this year, making it even more concerning.
December 14, 2025 at 2:37 PM
Terrorist attacks on people gathering to celebrate feel like an extra twist of the knife. With the Hanukah attack in Australia, it was families, including kids, getting together on a beach for a happy event.
And antisemitic incidents in Australia have risen this year, making it even more concerning.
And antisemitic incidents in Australia have risen this year, making it even more concerning.
FERRIS BUELLER: -Ism's in my opinion are not good. A person should not believe in an -ism, he should believe in himself.
NATE SILVER: <infinite loop, head explodes>
NATE SILVER: <infinite loop, head explodes>
December 14, 2025 at 2:05 AM
FERRIS BUELLER: -Ism's in my opinion are not good. A person should not believe in an -ism, he should believe in himself.
NATE SILVER: <infinite loop, head explodes>
NATE SILVER: <infinite loop, head explodes>
Their employers said they were great workers, other businesses said they helped revitalize the community, vast majority of local residents' opinions ranged from indifferent to positive. The only reason this became a thing is outside racists thought Haitian migrants in Ohio made for good scapegoats.
This guy is talking about some people who were not white moving to a city because a company located there hired them.
December 14, 2025 at 12:38 AM
Their employers said they were great workers, other businesses said they helped revitalize the community, vast majority of local residents' opinions ranged from indifferent to positive. The only reason this became a thing is outside racists thought Haitian migrants in Ohio made for good scapegoats.
Reposted by Nicholas Grossman
So, El Fasher looks like one of the worst single event atrocities to happen this century so far, but the evidence has come in such a trickle it seems to only now be getting verified
At least 60,000 murdered in Sudanese city, which resembles ‘a slaughterhouse’
Satellite evidence shows extent of paramilitary massacre in El Fasher
www.irishtimes.com
December 13, 2025 at 3:50 AM
So, El Fasher looks like one of the worst single event atrocities to happen this century so far, but the evidence has come in such a trickle it seems to only now be getting verified
I know the bar's set much lower for this one president, but it's awful that he live-tweets the news, spouting baseless speculations, rather than rely on the world's best information apparatus that has intel agencies and police depts on call. The president's role should be a calming one, not... this.
He issued a correction, proving why he needs to stfu and let the cops do their jobs.
It’s a a goddamned ongoing tragedy, not a reality TV show, primed for him to drop the big reveal.
It’s a a goddamned ongoing tragedy, not a reality TV show, primed for him to drop the big reveal.
December 13, 2025 at 11:29 PM
I know the bar's set much lower for this one president, but it's awful that he live-tweets the news, spouting baseless speculations, rather than rely on the world's best information apparatus that has intel agencies and police depts on call. The president's role should be a calming one, not... this.
If you're wondering what happened to Nate Silver, he was into the COVID lab leak theory and got negative feedback online, including from epidemiologists and virologists and (GASP!) posters, which added to his belief that The Woke are victimizing Nate Silver. It spiraled from there.
I'm not kidding.
I'm not kidding.
December 13, 2025 at 11:22 PM
If you're wondering what happened to Nate Silver, he was into the COVID lab leak theory and got negative feedback online, including from epidemiologists and virologists and (GASP!) posters, which added to his belief that The Woke are victimizing Nate Silver. It spiraled from there.
I'm not kidding.
I'm not kidding.
3 Americans reportedly killed and 3 more injured by an ISIS attack in Syria (1 civilian among the dead, the other 5 military personnel).
You may remember Syria as one of those US forever wars that peace president Donald Trump ended, and ISIS a terrorist group that Trump declared totally destroyed.
You may remember Syria as one of those US forever wars that peace president Donald Trump ended, and ISIS a terrorist group that Trump declared totally destroyed.
December 13, 2025 at 5:05 PM
3 Americans reportedly killed and 3 more injured by an ISIS attack in Syria (1 civilian among the dead, the other 5 military personnel).
You may remember Syria as one of those US forever wars that peace president Donald Trump ended, and ISIS a terrorist group that Trump declared totally destroyed.
You may remember Syria as one of those US forever wars that peace president Donald Trump ended, and ISIS a terrorist group that Trump declared totally destroyed.
The trick is most right-wing types who see what Chris Rufo says believe they are the manipulators, not the manipulated. Few besides the Very Online see Rufo’s words directly.
Weirder is how his targets in mainstream media treat him like an assignment editor, as if that shows how unbiased they are.
Weirder is how his targets in mainstream media treat him like an assignment editor, as if that shows how unbiased they are.
It's wild how Chris Rufo openly talks about his own followers like they are the dumbest, most contemptible people alive. Which, fair!
But it says a lot about MAGA psychology that they don't seem to mind.
x.com/christopherr...
But it says a lot about MAGA psychology that they don't seem to mind.
x.com/christopherr...
December 13, 2025 at 4:57 PM
The trick is most right-wing types who see what Chris Rufo says believe they are the manipulators, not the manipulated. Few besides the Very Online see Rufo’s words directly.
Weirder is how his targets in mainstream media treat him like an assignment editor, as if that shows how unbiased they are.
Weirder is how his targets in mainstream media treat him like an assignment editor, as if that shows how unbiased they are.
Reposted by Nicholas Grossman
The American right insists that it has the secrets to a happy life.
But what they offer is a prison ship of reactionary politics, misogyny, and contempt for anyone who doesn’t conform to their retrograde expectations.
Read my latest at @liberalcurrents.com
www.liberalcurrents.com/marriage-mis...
But what they offer is a prison ship of reactionary politics, misogyny, and contempt for anyone who doesn’t conform to their retrograde expectations.
Read my latest at @liberalcurrents.com
www.liberalcurrents.com/marriage-mis...
Marriage, Misogyny, and the Pursuit of Happiness: The Right Is Offering A Morally Barren Vision of The Family
Liberals cannot allow the right to monopolize the discourse on virtue and the good life or they will cede space to their rigid and hierarchical visions.
www.liberalcurrents.com
December 13, 2025 at 2:48 PM
The American right insists that it has the secrets to a happy life.
But what they offer is a prison ship of reactionary politics, misogyny, and contempt for anyone who doesn’t conform to their retrograde expectations.
Read my latest at @liberalcurrents.com
www.liberalcurrents.com/marriage-mis...
But what they offer is a prison ship of reactionary politics, misogyny, and contempt for anyone who doesn’t conform to their retrograde expectations.
Read my latest at @liberalcurrents.com
www.liberalcurrents.com/marriage-mis...