Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
@karvelis.bsky.social
Intelligence | Counterinsurgency | Hybrid war | LatAm | documentary photography | tacos | beer. Not necessarily in that order. #SlavaUkraini 🇺🇦
Pinned
Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
@karvelis.bsky.social
· Nov 12
It turns out that there’s no insurgencies starter pack, so I’ve made one.
Let me know if I’ve missed someone.
go.bsky.app/12EFpjk
Let me know if I’ve missed someone.
go.bsky.app/12EFpjk
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
This is a big deal. Essentially a reversal of the US export control policy on advanced chips. Possibly decisive in the AI race. Compute is our main advantage — China has more power, engineers, and the entire edge layer — so by giving this up we increase the odds the world runs on Chinese AI.
December 9, 2025 at 1:59 AM
This is a big deal. Essentially a reversal of the US export control policy on advanced chips. Possibly decisive in the AI race. Compute is our main advantage — China has more power, engineers, and the entire edge layer — so by giving this up we increase the odds the world runs on Chinese AI.
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which is part of the Yemeni government, has seized key areas of Hadramawt and Mahrah governorates in eastern Yemen since December 3. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
December 9, 2025 at 3:11 AM
The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which is part of the Yemeni government, has seized key areas of Hadramawt and Mahrah governorates in eastern Yemen since December 3. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
Putin is not preparing to end the war. He has signed a decree ordering the conscription of reserve personnel for military training in 2026.
December 9, 2025 at 3:28 AM
Putin is not preparing to end the war. He has signed a decree ordering the conscription of reserve personnel for military training in 2026.
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
“We are at war with Europe, not with Ukraine. This war will not end until we defeat Europe.”
If it acts like an aggressor, quacks like an aggressor, then it probably is russia.
They want to take over the entire continent. Take their word for it.
If it acts like an aggressor, quacks like an aggressor, then it probably is russia.
They want to take over the entire continent. Take their word for it.
December 8, 2025 at 8:02 PM
“We are at war with Europe, not with Ukraine. This war will not end until we defeat Europe.”
If it acts like an aggressor, quacks like an aggressor, then it probably is russia.
They want to take over the entire continent. Take their word for it.
If it acts like an aggressor, quacks like an aggressor, then it probably is russia.
They want to take over the entire continent. Take their word for it.
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
When Russia praises the new US security strategy, you get the idea of the magnitude of the shift that has taken place.
December 8, 2025 at 10:17 AM
When Russia praises the new US security strategy, you get the idea of the magnitude of the shift that has taken place.
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
"The Belgians have been getting pressure from the U.S. to not release the Russian Central Bank assets for Ukraine, because the Trump administration wants all that money to go back to Russia, while taking their cut – which is just jaw dropping."
December 9, 2025 at 6:28 AM
"The Belgians have been getting pressure from the U.S. to not release the Russian Central Bank assets for Ukraine, because the Trump administration wants all that money to go back to Russia, while taking their cut – which is just jaw dropping."
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
🇱🇹 🇧🇾 #Lithuania on Tuesday declared a state of emergency due to threats to public safety from smuggled balloons originating in #Belarus, the government said.
www.reuters.com/world/lithua...
www.reuters.com/world/lithua...
Lithuania declares state of emergency over smuggler balloons from Belarus
Lithuania on Tuesday declared a state of emergency due to threats to public safety from smuggled balloons originating in Belarus, the government said.
www.reuters.com
December 9, 2025 at 8:10 AM
🇱🇹 🇧🇾 #Lithuania on Tuesday declared a state of emergency due to threats to public safety from smuggled balloons originating in #Belarus, the government said.
www.reuters.com/world/lithua...
www.reuters.com/world/lithua...
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
My new article!
"NKVD Plan to Undermine the Catholic Church in Lithuania in 1941"
Based on my ongoing research of #NKVD/#MGB/#KGB files at Hoover Library & Archives! @socintelhist.bsky.social
@hooverinstitution.bsky.social
The link: tinyurl.com/2ah69ze6
"NKVD Plan to Undermine the Catholic Church in Lithuania in 1941"
Based on my ongoing research of #NKVD/#MGB/#KGB files at Hoover Library & Archives! @socintelhist.bsky.social
@hooverinstitution.bsky.social
The link: tinyurl.com/2ah69ze6
NKVD Plan to Undermine the Catholic Church in Lithuania in 1941
Top secret plan devised by Beria and Merkulov discovered in the archives
tinyurl.com
December 8, 2025 at 6:00 PM
My new article!
"NKVD Plan to Undermine the Catholic Church in Lithuania in 1941"
Based on my ongoing research of #NKVD/#MGB/#KGB files at Hoover Library & Archives! @socintelhist.bsky.social
@hooverinstitution.bsky.social
The link: tinyurl.com/2ah69ze6
"NKVD Plan to Undermine the Catholic Church in Lithuania in 1941"
Based on my ongoing research of #NKVD/#MGB/#KGB files at Hoover Library & Archives! @socintelhist.bsky.social
@hooverinstitution.bsky.social
The link: tinyurl.com/2ah69ze6
A clear-eyed analysis of the current state of transatlantic relations by @nathalietocci.bsky.social, a must read!
Europeans lull themselves into the belief that Trump is unpredictable. This is strangly reassuring, but wrong. The #NSS is only the latest confirmation that Europe is, at best, alone. My piece @ForeignPolicy
foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/05/n...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/05/n...
Does Europe Finally Realize It’s Alone?
Washington’s new National Security Strategy ratifies an adversarial relationship.
foreignpolicy.com
December 8, 2025 at 4:23 PM
A clear-eyed analysis of the current state of transatlantic relations by @nathalietocci.bsky.social, a must read!
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
The three #Baltic States have joined #Finland, #Ireland, #Poland, and #Sweden in urging the EU to use frozen Russian assets to provide a #war reparations loan to #Ukraine. The seven member states said such a solution was "the most financially appropriate and politically realistic."
Baltic: Baltics join call to use Russian assets to help Ukraine
The three Baltic States have joined Finland, Ireland, Poland, and Sweden in urging the EU to use frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine, LETA reports. The seven member states sent a joint letter to…
viabaltica.fi
December 8, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
BTW, with the Putin backed re-election of Trump, I’m still sticking with my 1917 analogy, when the Germans smuggled Lenin back into Russia and the Bolshevik Revolution meant it withdrew from the war.
Germany still lost.
Germany still lost.
December 7, 2025 at 11:30 PM
BTW, with the Putin backed re-election of Trump, I’m still sticking with my 1917 analogy, when the Germans smuggled Lenin back into Russia and the Bolshevik Revolution meant it withdrew from the war.
Germany still lost.
Germany still lost.
Movie you’ve watched more than six times with a gif. Hard mode: no Stars (Wars nor Trek), LOTR, or Marvel, Disney Animated or Pixar.
December 8, 2025 at 12:29 AM
Movie you’ve watched more than six times with a gif. Hard mode: no Stars (Wars nor Trek), LOTR, or Marvel, Disney Animated or Pixar.
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
FSB boss: “Sergei, you post frog to make America Nazi”
Sergei: “Da”
Boss: “Why is frog now Antifa?”
Sergei: “…”
Boss: “Сергей!!!!”
Sergei: “Da”
Boss: “Why is frog now Antifa?”
Sergei: “…”
Boss: “Сергей!!!!”
Things are happening at Portland's ICE facility tonight.
Read more of our protest coverage here: www.oregonlive.com/crime/2025/1...
Read more of our protest coverage here: www.oregonlive.com/crime/2025/1...
October 10, 2025 at 11:42 AM
FSB boss: “Sergei, you post frog to make America Nazi”
Sergei: “Da”
Boss: “Why is frog now Antifa?”
Sergei: “…”
Boss: “Сергей!!!!”
Sergei: “Da”
Boss: “Why is frog now Antifa?”
Sergei: “…”
Boss: “Сергей!!!!”
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
TIL about a memorial ceremony in Iceland in 2019 to mark the end of a glacier, changing the place name from Okjökull to Ok (jökull = glacier). Uncompromising wording on the bronze plaque:
"This is to acknowledge that we know what is happening and what needs to be done. Only you know if we did it".
"This is to acknowledge that we know what is happening and what needs to be done. Only you know if we did it".
December 7, 2025 at 5:17 PM
TIL about a memorial ceremony in Iceland in 2019 to mark the end of a glacier, changing the place name from Okjökull to Ok (jökull = glacier). Uncompromising wording on the bronze plaque:
"This is to acknowledge that we know what is happening and what needs to be done. Only you know if we did it".
"This is to acknowledge that we know what is happening and what needs to be done. Only you know if we did it".
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
The Trump administration released its latest National Security Strategy--and one thing that can be said is that there is no more pretending. It’s a plan to weaken European unity, to make Europe MAGA, to force Europe to take economic dictation by the USA…. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
The New US National Security Strategy
Trump Says Openly That the US Wants to Dominate Europe and Make it MAGA
open.substack.com
December 5, 2025 at 10:08 AM
The Trump administration released its latest National Security Strategy--and one thing that can be said is that there is no more pretending. It’s a plan to weaken European unity, to make Europe MAGA, to force Europe to take economic dictation by the USA…. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
Quote for today's negotiations:
"The aggressor is always peace-loving; he would prefer to take over our country unopposed."
Carl von Clausewitz in "On War," 1816-1830
"The aggressor is always peace-loving; he would prefer to take over our country unopposed."
Carl von Clausewitz in "On War," 1816-1830
December 2, 2025 at 10:19 PM
Quote for today's negotiations:
"The aggressor is always peace-loving; he would prefer to take over our country unopposed."
Carl von Clausewitz in "On War," 1816-1830
"The aggressor is always peace-loving; he would prefer to take over our country unopposed."
Carl von Clausewitz in "On War," 1816-1830
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
Visa restrictions (H1B) for the US incoming if you worked on disinformation, content moderation, fact-checking or online safety 🤯
www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
Exclusive: Trump administration orders enhanced vetting for applicants of H-1B visa
An internal State Department memo said that anyone involved in "censorship" of free speech should be considered for rejection.
www.reuters.com
December 4, 2025 at 6:03 PM
Visa restrictions (H1B) for the US incoming if you worked on disinformation, content moderation, fact-checking or online safety 🤯
www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
I do think all this ongoing criticism of the US choice of whom to send to Moscow for the "peace talks" that weren't is really a little unfair. After all, if it was a fool's errand, then Steve Witkoff was the perfect man for the job.
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/e...
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/e...
December 4, 2025 at 8:31 AM
I do think all this ongoing criticism of the US choice of whom to send to Moscow for the "peace talks" that weren't is really a little unfair. After all, if it was a fool's errand, then Steve Witkoff was the perfect man for the job.
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/e...
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/e...
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
The first hemispheric history of the Cuban Missile Crisis and the shock waves that reverberated through Latin America.
Renata Keller describes deadly riots that shook Bolivia, Argentina's naval quarantine and much more. @renatakeller.bsky.social
Holiday sale 30% off: uncpress.org/978146968943...
Renata Keller describes deadly riots that shook Bolivia, Argentina's naval quarantine and much more. @renatakeller.bsky.social
Holiday sale 30% off: uncpress.org/978146968943...
![[book cover]
The Fate of the Americas
The Cuban Missile Crisis and the Hemispheric Cold War
by Renata Keller](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:2wyqv44lm72vasmddeqjgy72/bafkreifazzcwm4wl2mxlazmupny2rbeoaztxbvzoaekpwis6nkmfi5k53q@jpeg)
December 3, 2025 at 8:56 PM
The first hemispheric history of the Cuban Missile Crisis and the shock waves that reverberated through Latin America.
Renata Keller describes deadly riots that shook Bolivia, Argentina's naval quarantine and much more. @renatakeller.bsky.social
Holiday sale 30% off: uncpress.org/978146968943...
Renata Keller describes deadly riots that shook Bolivia, Argentina's naval quarantine and much more. @renatakeller.bsky.social
Holiday sale 30% off: uncpress.org/978146968943...
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
Important to call things by their right names.
US is not negotiating between Russia and Ukraine. It is negotiating between Russia and themselves.
Which means that the warring parties are not negotiating, and therefore the war will continue.
US is not negotiating between Russia and Ukraine. It is negotiating between Russia and themselves.
Which means that the warring parties are not negotiating, and therefore the war will continue.
This framing is wrong. The failure underscores how far apart Russia and Ukraine are. We need to stop exaggerating the U.S. role in making peace.
U.S. envoys left Moscow without a breakthrough after hours of talks at the Kremlin, underscoring how far apart Washington and Moscow remain on key terms of a possible settlement to the war in Ukraine. meduza.io/en/news/2025...
December 3, 2025 at 6:40 AM
Important to call things by their right names.
US is not negotiating between Russia and Ukraine. It is negotiating between Russia and themselves.
Which means that the warring parties are not negotiating, and therefore the war will continue.
US is not negotiating between Russia and Ukraine. It is negotiating between Russia and themselves.
Which means that the warring parties are not negotiating, and therefore the war will continue.
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
Just as predicted, the badly staged circus continues and remnants of @senategop.govpeeps.us @houserepublicans.bsky.social have to play along this #Kremlin designed idiocy that gives Kremlin war criminal precious time & weakens #NATO resolve in Ukraine. nbcnews.com/world/ukrain... via
@nbcnews.com
@nbcnews.com
Putin meets Witkoff and Kushner for five hours with no breakthrough on Ukraine peace deal, Putin adviser says
"If Trump will really press him, Putin will agree to end the fighting," one Russian analyst told NBC News.
nbcnews.com
December 3, 2025 at 4:49 AM
Just as predicted, the badly staged circus continues and remnants of @senategop.govpeeps.us @houserepublicans.bsky.social have to play along this #Kremlin designed idiocy that gives Kremlin war criminal precious time & weakens #NATO resolve in Ukraine. nbcnews.com/world/ukrain... via
@nbcnews.com
@nbcnews.com
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
For months, Steve Witkoff and Kirill Dimitriev have been cooking up how extract as much as possible for 🇷🇺 and 🇺🇸 through a deal about 🇺🇦 without 🇺🇦!
Watch my analysis right here👇
open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Watch my analysis right here👇
open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
December 1, 2025 at 10:42 AM
For months, Steve Witkoff and Kirill Dimitriev have been cooking up how extract as much as possible for 🇷🇺 and 🇺🇸 through a deal about 🇺🇦 without 🇺🇦!
Watch my analysis right here👇
open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Watch my analysis right here👇
open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
📅 ONLINE EVENT | Violence and Organised Crime in Ecuador
🕐 2 December | 10am Quito | 10am New York | 4pm Brussels
w/ @glaeldys.bsky.social,Karol Norona, Guido Núñez and @renatasegura.bsky.social.
Registration ⬇️
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
🕐 2 December | 10am Quito | 10am New York | 4pm Brussels
w/ @glaeldys.bsky.social,Karol Norona, Guido Núñez and @renatasegura.bsky.social.
Registration ⬇️
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
December 1, 2025 at 9:30 AM
📅 ONLINE EVENT | Violence and Organised Crime in Ecuador
🕐 2 December | 10am Quito | 10am New York | 4pm Brussels
w/ @glaeldys.bsky.social,Karol Norona, Guido Núñez and @renatasegura.bsky.social.
Registration ⬇️
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
🕐 2 December | 10am Quito | 10am New York | 4pm Brussels
w/ @glaeldys.bsky.social,Karol Norona, Guido Núñez and @renatasegura.bsky.social.
Registration ⬇️
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
" #Trump confirms he recently spoke with #Venezuela ’s Nicolás #Maduro"
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Trump confirms he recently spoke with Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro
Trump remained tight-lipped on details of call with Venezuelan president as tensions rise between countries
www.theguardian.com
December 1, 2025 at 8:32 AM
" #Trump confirms he recently spoke with #Venezuela ’s Nicolás #Maduro"
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...