Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Anders Östlund @andersostlund.bsky.social · 3h

Nuclear war is back in the propaganda. Russia is clearly afraid of possible Tomahawks.

NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 3h

Lukashenko warns that Tomahawk missiles "won’t bring peace to Ukraine but could lead to nuclear war." He added, “Donald Trump probably understands this best, which is why he’s in no rush to hand over such deadly weapons or allow strikes deep into Russia, as Zelensky hopes.”

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Anders Östlund @andersostlund.bsky.social · 5h

Must be awkward to spend an entire career studying something without learning anything.

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Anders Östlund @andersostlund.bsky.social · 5h

Also military analysts:
- Russia will win in two days
- Russian BTGs are unstoppable (remember the all powerful BTGs that were all destroyed by Ukraine before summer of 2022)
- Russia will achieve total air superiority by lunch time on Feb 24 2022

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Anders Östlund @andersostlund.bsky.social · 5h

Military analysts:
Cruise missiles - No real impact on the outcome of the war
Artillery - No impact
Jets - No impact
Bullets - No impact
Small arms - No impact
Tanks - No impact
Fighting vehicles - No impact
Ballistic missiles - No impact
Air defense - No impact
High tech drones - No impact

MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 5h

🇺🇸🇺🇦🚀 The US will be able to transfer only 20-50 Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine - not enough to change the course of the war, - FT.

"The US has about 4,150 Tomahawk missiles, but will be able to transfer only a few dozen to Ukraine. New purchases are limited," — former Pentagon official Mark Kanchian

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Anders Östlund @andersostlund.bsky.social · 8h

Russia will not stop until it's beaten to the ground. Russia will keep going as long as it has any men and coins left.

Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 10h

WARNING: The Kremlin is Preparing to Mobilize Reservists on a Rolling Basis to Fight in Ukraine for the First Time: isw.pub/UKRWARNO101325

Note: This warning does not suggest that the Kremlin is likely to undertake a single large-scale mobilization at this time.

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Anders Östlund @andersostlund.bsky.social · 1d

Wonder how far Putin will dig into Russian manpower to prolong the war? Can we expect WWII style mass mobilization that will make today's meat grinder look like surgical warfare? I think Putin will go on until the very end. Either he dies in a bunker or run away when Ukrainian tanks close in on him.

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Anders Östlund @andersostlund.bsky.social · 1d

Very good newsletter. Good list of arguments for why it's clear that time is not on Russia's side, that Russia is losing the war.

Ulrich Speck @ulrichspeck.bsky.social · 9d

Just published: New edition of my Geopolitical notes. Subscribe for free. ulrichspeck.substack.com/p/geopolitic...

Geopolitical notes 4/2025

A weekly briefing on strategic competition

ulrichspeck.substack.com

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Reposted by Anders Östlund

Jay in Kyiv @jayinkyiv.bsky.social · 1d

Those blaming Putin (not Russia) for the war just don't understand Russians.

Putin is only giving them the foreign atrocities they demand, the ones that make their own misery seem tolerable by comparison.

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Reposted by Anders Östlund

Nicolas Tenzer @nicolastenzer.bsky.social · 7d

Nineteen years ago, on October 7, 2006, Anna Politkovskaya was assassinated by Putin's hitmen.
She was the first to tell the truth about Russia's mass crimes in Chechnya, which foreshadowed those in Syria, Ukraine, Africa and elsewhere. They could have been prevented.
Almost no one listened to her.

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Reposted by Anders Östlund

Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 2d

Almost worst, we tried to pretend what she said didn’t matter and got right down to business with Putin

Nicolas Tenzer @nicolastenzer.bsky.social · 7d

Nineteen years ago, on October 7, 2006, Anna Politkovskaya was assassinated by Putin's hitmen.
She was the first to tell the truth about Russia's mass crimes in Chechnya, which foreshadowed those in Syria, Ukraine, Africa and elsewhere. They could have been prevented.
Almost no one listened to her.

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Anders Östlund @andersostlund.bsky.social · 2d

#Estonia
"The Estonian Police and Border Guards has restricted movement on a short section of the Värska — Saatse highway.

According to the official version of the Estonian authorities, the reason was allegedly the increased cases of "heightened activity" on the part of Russian border guards."

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Reposted by Anders Östlund

MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 3d

🇪🇺❗️7 of the EU's 27 member countries increased the value of their imports from Russia versus a year earlier, - Reuters

France, for example, saw purchases of Russian energy rise 40% to 2.2 billion euros while the Netherlands jumped 72% to 498 million euros, the analysis shows.

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Reposted by Anders Östlund

NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 4d

Russia’s metallurgical industry is facing its worst crisis since the 1990s. Due to plummeting demand, high interest rates, and collapsing output, steel plants are cutting staff and considering 4-day workweeks. Sanctions have wiped out a third of exports, and production is down over 10% year-on-year.

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Anders Östlund @andersostlund.bsky.social · 5d

Just to clarify, I am not in favor of the slow response. I always wanted a swift hit on Russia, and it should have happened already in the spring of 1992 when Russia went to war with Moldova.

Anders Östlund @andersostlund.bsky.social · 6d

EU's slow response EU to Russian warfare makes a Russian state collapse more likely. EU's measures are slowly eating away at the Russian body in a way a swift and resolute response would not. Time is not on Russia's side. Eventually China will also not want to be fettered to a corpse.

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Anders Östlund @andersostlund.bsky.social · 6d

EU's slow response EU to Russian warfare makes a Russian state collapse more likely. EU's measures are slowly eating away at the Russian body in a way a swift and resolute response would not. Time is not on Russia's side. Eventually China will also not want to be fettered to a corpse.

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Anders Östlund @andersostlund.bsky.social · 6d

Amen to that.

The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 6d

⚡️'Not in Poland's interest,' to hand over Ukrainian in Nord Stream probe, Tusk says.

"From our point of view, the only people who should be ashamed and should remain silent on the issue of Nord Stream 2 are those who decided to build it," Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said.

'Not in Poland's interest,' to hand over Ukrainian in Nord Stream probe, Tusk says

"From our point of view, the only people who should be ashamed and should remain silent on the issue of Nord Stream 2 are those who decided to build it," Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said.

kyivindependent.com

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Reposted by Anders Östlund

Marcel Dirsus @marceldirsus.com · 7d

The core problem with Merkel's argument remains the same it's always been: If you believe that (a) Russia was a significant threat and (b) that good relations with Moscow were necessary to buy time for Ukraine, why would you prepare neither yourself nor Ukraine for conflict?

Marcel Dirsus @marceldirsus.com · 7d

Merkel never said that Poland and the Baltics are to blame for the invasion. I don't know why she does these interviews or why she seems to be incapable of recognising that her Russia policy failed, but there's no point in being angry at her for something she didn't do

Ilya Lozovsky @ichbinilya.bsky.social · 7d

You've probably seen a lot of angry posts today about how "Angela Merkel blamed Poland and the Baltics for the Ukraine war" in a recent interview.

They're far off the mark — she did no such thing! 👇

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Anders Östlund @andersostlund.bsky.social · 7d

Deficits coming to Belarus.

MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 7d

🥔 Lukashenko: "Starting from the 6th, any price increases are prohibited. Not tomorrow, but today. So that prices don't get jacked up overnight. Therefore, starting from today, price increases are prohibited. And God forbid anyone backdates anything in the accounting records..."

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Anders Östlund @andersostlund.bsky.social · 7d

It's remarkable that Merkel doesn't have the common sense to be quiet considering her absolutely disastrous period as Chancellor. She appeased Russia. That fueled Russian aggression. As a result thousands of people are dead. Those are the facts.
www.politico.eu/article/ange...

Merkel blasted by Baltics, Poland for suggesting they share blame for Russia’s Ukraine invasion

“I am astonished that after everything that has happened in Ukraine, she still thinks this way,” a former leader says of ex-German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

www.politico.eu

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Anders Östlund @andersostlund.bsky.social · 7d

Russia will be forced to deploy airdefense systems deep inside its territory.

Anton Gerashchenko @antongerashchenko.bsky.social · 7d

A drone attack on an oil refinery in Russian Tyumen is reported by local Telegram channels.

It is unclear whether the drones were able to hit something, but the fact of them reaching this far (about 2,000 km from Ukraine) is very, very impressive!

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Reposted by Anders Östlund

Kyiv Post @kyivpost.com · 7d

One of Russia’s largest oil refineries — the Kirishi plant — was forced to shut down its main crude processing unit after a Ukrainian drone strike, Reuters reported.

The refinery, which handled over 17.5 million tonnes of oil in 2024 alone, makes up more than 6% of Russia’s total refining capacity.

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Anders Östlund @andersostlund.bsky.social · 8d

She is outright insane. Or, she is indeed working for the Russians. I have many times before asked how come she was allowed to leave East Germany as an educated, unmarried, woman in the 80s. Why did they trust her to come back?

Kyiv Post @kyivpost.com · 8d

Germany’s ex-Chancellor Angela Merkel has blamed Poland and the Baltic states for triggering Putin’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, saying they refused to support an initiative for direct talks with Russia in 2021.

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Reposted by Anders Östlund

Euan MacDonald @euanmacdonald.bsky.social · 8d

Attack on fuel depot in Feodosia in Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Crimea: Russian occupiers try, and fail, to take down an incoming drone with anti-aircraft fire.

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Anders Östlund @andersostlund.bsky.social · 8d

The Nordic-Baltic countries have a total GDP of close to $2T. That's close to Russia's most likely inflated number.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nordic-...

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Reposted by Anders Östlund

Euromaidan Press @euromaidanpress.bsky.social · 8d

Putin "mocks the West's silence" as Russia fires 53 missiles and 500 drones at Ukraine's civilian infrastructure, Zelenskyy says

The weapons contain 100,000+ components from US, UK, German, and other Western companies still supplying Russia

euromaidanpress.com/2025/10/05/p...

Putin mocks the West’s silence as Russia bombards Ukraine with Western-made components – Zelenskyy

A massive overnight Russian bombardment damaged energy facilities, infrastructure, and homes across several regions, leaving at least five people dead.

euromaidanpress.com

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