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Critical Threats Project

@criticalthreats.bsky.social

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An AEI project focused on understanding threats and tracking global challenges | Contact us: [email protected] | Media requests: [email protected]

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 7d

NEW | Gaza Ceasefire Plan: Hamas agreed to a ceasefire with Israel on October 3 but called for negotiating other aspects of US President Donald Trump’s plan for peace in the Gaza Strip.
Read today's update from CTP and @thestudyofwar.bsky.social: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/8)

Iran Update, October 6, 2025

www.criticalthreats.org

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 15h

The ceasefire agreement does not address key outstanding issues between Hamas and Israel, such as Hamas’ disarmament, a full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, and future governance in the strip. 3/3

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 15h

Hamas released all 20 living hostages and the bodies of four deceased hostages, and Israel released at least 1,700 Palestinian prisoners on October 13. 2/3

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 15h

NEW I Hamas and Israel have continued to implement the October 9 ceasefire agreement. 1/3

Read the full update here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 1d

Ukrainian forces advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast and near Kupyansk and Siversk. Russian forces advanced in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast and near Pokrovsk.

Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 1d

Russia’s effort to generate increased military recruitment though high financial incentives is reportedly losing momentum, indicating that Russia’s main method for recruiting volunteers for its war may be hitting diminishing returns.

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 1d

US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky discussed possible US sales of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine in an October 12 call, as the Kremlin continues its reflexive control campaign to deter the US from sending Ukraine Tomahawks.

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 1d

The Kremlin is attempting to stabilize its domestic gasoline market to offset the consequences of Ukraine's long-strike campaign against refineries.

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 1d

American intelligence sharing with Ukraine has reportedly been crucial in increasing the efficacy of Ukraine's long-range drone strike campaign targeting the Russian energy sector in recent months.

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 1d

Estonian authorities temporarily closed a section of road passing through Russian territory near the Russia-Estonia border on October 10

Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 3d

Ukraine’s European partners continue to allocate aid to Ukraine and deepen cooperation with the Ukrainian defense industrial base (DIB).

Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 3d

US First Lady Melania Trump announced that she assisted efforts to return seven Ukrainian children that Russia abducted.

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 3d

Putin also continued to threaten the West as part of his reflexive control campaign aimed at preventing the US from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine and portraying Russia’s continued adherence to the New START treaty as a meaningful concession in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 3d

The Kremlin continues parallel efforts to curry favor with the United States while deflecting blame onto Ukraine and Europe for stalling negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine.

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 3d

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that Russian strikes injured over 20 civilians and killed a child in Zaporizhzhia City.

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 3d

Russian forces launched a large, combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine on the night of October 9 to 10, primarily targeting energy infrastructure and civilian targets. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 3d

Israeli forces retain control of approximately 53 percent of the Gaza Strip.

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 3d

600 truckloads of humanitarian aid will enter the Strip each day.

Two hundred US military personnel will be in Israel to assist with the ceasefire implementation, but they will not enter the Gaza Strip

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 3d

Hamas agreed to release all 20 living Israeli hostages and return the remains of all deceased hostages in its possession within three days of implementation.

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 3d

Israel and Hamas implemented a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip at 0500 ET on October 10.

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 3d

NEW | The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) withdrew to the eastern half of the Gaza Strip before the ceasefire began and has assured Hamas it will not reenter the western areas of the Strip if Hamas meets its ceasefire and hostage release obligations. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 3d

Read today's full brief here: www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/congo...

Congo War Security Review, October 10, 2025

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 3d

In today's Congo War Security Review:

The Congolese government and M23 will reportedly discuss a Qatari-proposed draft peace agreement in the next round of talks next week.

The Congolese army bombed and disabled a key M23-controlled bridge on the RP1030 in North Kivu.

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 3d

In these agreements, the communities agree to pay taxes, adhere to JNIM-interpreted shari’a law, and cease cooperation with state security forces; and the military agrees to confine or reduce its presence in the area. 6/6

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 3d

The negotiations fit a growing pattern of junta-backed negotiations with JNIM, which give the group de facto control of affected areas, across the country in 2025. 5/6

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Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 3d

The lack of fuel threatens to undermine the Malian mining sector in the medium term.

While many mines have enough fuel reserves to weather temporary disruptions, local populations or the state could attempt to requisition the fuel reserves of mining companies in an emergency. 4/6

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