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Crisis Group
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We're an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation, committed to preventing and resolving deadly conflict.
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NEW COMMENTARY | @crisisgroup.org’s 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2026

2025 was a bloody affair. 2026 promises little better. @comfortero.crisisgroup.org and Richard Atwood unpack the challenges that lie ahead this year. ⬇️

www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-co...
NEW UPDATE | On Our Radar

🇬🇹 30-day state of emergency declared in Guatemala after inmates take guards hostage at three prisons
🇨🇩 M23 rebels withdrew from Burundian border in DR Congo
🇺🇬 Tensions simmer after election results in Uganda

www.crisisgroup.org/global/our-r...
January 23, 2026 at 5:44 PM
🎧 Nouvel épisode de notre podcast Afrique 360°

Le Soudan, l’est de la RDC et le Sahel sont les trois crises majeures sur le continent africain.

Quelles chances de leur résolution en 2026?

www.crisisgroup.org/node/27232
L’Afrique en 2026 : entre crises persistantes et enjeux géostratégiques | International Crisis Group
Dans cet épisode d’Afrique 360°, Rinaldo Depagne et son co-présentateur exceptionnel, Ibrahim Yahaya Ibrahim, reçoivent Paul-Simon Handy, Directeur régional pour l’Afrique de l’Est à l’Institut d’étud...
www.crisisgroup.org
January 23, 2026 at 5:31 PM
NEW ANALYST’S NOTEBOOK | Ecuador Ignites Trade Spat with Colombia over Border Crime

Glaeldys González Calanche explains an unexpected trade row between Ecuador and Colombia, allegedly over security along their shared frontier.

www.crisisgroup.org/alr/latin-am...
Ecuador Ignites Trade Spat with Colombia over Border Crime | International Crisis Group
Crisis Group expert Glaeldys González Calanche explains an unexpected trade row between Ecuador and Colombia, allegedly over security along their shared frontier
www.crisisgroup.org
January 23, 2026 at 5:27 PM
Reposted by Crisis Group
China is drawing Canada closer. Which country will be next? When Alexander Sjöberg of Danish newspaper @berlingske.bsky.social put that question to me, I forecast South Korea, the United Kingdom, and Germany as Beijing’s next targets.

Article link in comments.
January 23, 2026 at 1:55 PM
Reposted by Crisis Group
1/2 The countries signing on to the new institution in Davos include some—such as Egypt and the United Arab Emirates—that have backed different sides in Sudan’s grim civil war.
~ @fortid.crisisgroup.org

foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/22/t...
The Board of Discord
Trump’s “Board of Peace” is neither an alternative to the U.N. nor a harmless vanity project but a threat to international cooperation.
foreignpolicy.com
January 23, 2026 at 3:35 PM
Reposted by Crisis Group
Did Donald Trump rule out use of force in his Davos speech? Not entirely clear, but he did not walk back from his demand for an ally's territory. @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org, Marta Mucznik, & I walk through the implications of this continuing crisis for the European & transatlantic security
Waiting for Davos: U.S. Allies Wrestle with Trump’s Threats to Greenland | International Crisis Group
U.S. President Donald Trump is heading to the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he will engage with allies about his expansionist designs on Greenland. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts look at the...
www.crisisgroup.org
January 21, 2026 at 4:16 PM
Reposted by Crisis Group
At Davos, by saying he would not use force, Trump somewhat cooled a crisis engendered by his insistence the U.S. own Greenland. But the crisis continues, & however it sorts out, transatlantic relations are irrevocably altered. Our @crisisgroup.org pre-speech analysis lays it out 🧵 1/10
www.crisisgroup.org
January 23, 2026 at 2:02 PM
✍️This week’s Analyst’s Notebooks are out.

🇺🇳 Trump proposes a bypass to the UN Security Council
🇸🇸 Rebel offensive sounds onset of war in South Sudan
🇲🇽 Mexico seeks to placate White House with mass criminal transfer

Read the latest insights here: www.crisisgroup.org/latest-updat...
January 23, 2026 at 1:15 PM
NEW OP-ED | The Board of Discord

Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace” is neither an alternative to the UN nor a harmless vanity project but a threat to international cooperation, writes @richardgowan1.bsky.social and @fortid.crisisgroup.org in @foreignpolicy.com.

foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/22/t...
The Board of Discord
Trump’s “Board of Peace” is neither an alternative to the U.N. nor a harmless vanity project but a threat to international cooperation.
foreignpolicy.com
January 23, 2026 at 9:09 AM
Reposted by Crisis Group
Whilst the UN system may not be capable of resolving the most major contemporary conflicts, it remains an important channel for diplomatic bargaining between the veto powers.

Learn why in the latest policy paper by
richardgowan1.bsky.social (of @crisisgroup.org): doi.org/10.1093/ia/i...
January 22, 2026 at 5:49 PM
Reposted by Crisis Group
The Board of Peace was born today.

@fortid.crisisgroup.org and I welcome it into the world @foreignpolicy.com. Sort of.

foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/22/t...
The Board of Discord
Trump’s “Board of Peace” is neither an alternative to the U.N. nor a harmless vanity project but a threat to international cooperation.
foreignpolicy.com
January 22, 2026 at 9:56 PM
🎧 NEW EPISODE | The Horn

This week, we discuss the new public Saudi-UAE rift and its implications for Sudan, Somalia and the wider region.

www.crisisgroup.org/pod/africa/h...
The Rupture in the Gulf, and its Fallout | International Crisis Group
This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Crisis Group experts Yasmine Farouk, Omar Mahmood and Shewit Woldemichael about the new public Saudi-UAE rift and its implications for Sudan, Somalia and the wi...
www.crisisgroup.org
January 22, 2026 at 4:45 PM
NEW ANALYST’S NOTEBOOK | Mexico Seeks to Placate White House with Mass Criminal Transfer

David Mora assesses the latest handover of convicts and criminal suspects amid threats of U.S. military action on Mexican soil.
www.crisisgroup.org/alr/latin-am...
Mexico Seeks to Placate White House with Mass Criminal Transfer | International Crisis Group
Crisis Group expert David Mora assesses the latest handover of convicts and criminal suspects amid threats of U.S. military action on Mexican soil.
www.crisisgroup.org
January 22, 2026 at 1:24 PM
NEW ANALYST’S NOTEBOOK | Egypt Applauds U.S. Promise to Mediate in Deadlocked Nile Dispute

@mwhanna.crisisgroup.org analyses Trump’s latest peacemaking gesture, related to the dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over a dam on the Nile.
www.crisisgroup.org/alr/middle-e...
Egypt Applauds U.S. Promise to Mediate in Deadlocked Nile Dispute | International Crisis Group
Crisis Group expert Michael Wahid Hanna analyses Trump’s latest peacemaking gesture, related to the dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over a dam on the Nile.
www.crisisgroup.org
January 22, 2026 at 1:23 PM
Reposted by Crisis Group
Pleased to speak with @channel4news.bsky.social earlier this week about the US President's fixation on Greenland and its implications for the US-built international legal order.

Have a watch.

www.channel4.com/news/is-trum...
Is Trump risking Nato alliances over Greenland?
We were joined by Brian Finucane, senior adviser for the US Program at the Crisis Group and former attorney adviser at the State Department under Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump and Peter Rou...
www.channel4.com
January 10, 2026 at 5:27 PM
NEW ANALYST’S NOTEBOOK | Rebel Offensive Sounds Onset of War in South Sudan

Daniel Akech analyses the country’s resurgent violence as opposition forces make substantial gains against the government in early 2026.
www.crisisgroup.org/alr/africa/s...
Rebel Offensive Sounds Onset of War in South Sudan | International Crisis Group
Crisis Group expert Daniel Akech analyses the country’s resurgent violence, as opposition forces make substantial gains against the government in early 2026
www.crisisgroup.org
January 21, 2026 at 2:41 PM
📨 Zones de tensions | La nouvelle édition de notre newsletter en français vient de sortir.

Au menu : la violence des gangs en Haïti, l’instabilité dans le sud-est de la Centrafrique et le conflit au Sahara occidental.

mailchi.mp/crisisgroup....
January 21, 2026 at 2:41 PM
Reposted by Crisis Group
While Trump has several times referenced national security in his talk of acquiring Greenland, it is difficult to make an interest-based case for his vision.

www.crisisgroup.org/qna/europe-c...
Waiting for Davos: U.S. Allies Wrestle with Trump’s Threats to Greenland | International Crisis Group
U.S. President Donald Trump is heading to the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he will engage with allies about his expansionist designs on Greenland. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts look at the...
www.crisisgroup.org
January 21, 2026 at 12:34 PM
NEW Q&A | Waiting for Davos: U.S. Allies Wrestle with Trump’s Threats to Greenland

Donald Trump is heading to the World Economic Forum where he will engage with allies on his expansionist designs for Greenland. We unpack the crisis and its implications.

www.crisisgroup.org/qna/europe-c...
January 21, 2026 at 12:52 PM
Reposted by Crisis Group
🧵from my @crisisgroup.org colleague providing context for this detainee transfer from Mexico.
Sheinbaum just handed over 37 cartel suspects to U.S. custody. After the U.S. attack in Caracas, Mexico needs to deliver clear wins for Trump to further deter any U.S. unilateral military move. This is it. Some quick thoughts from Sinaloa, where I am doing fieldwork this week:
January 20, 2026 at 10:04 PM
NEW STATEMENT | Preventing Further Escalation in Syria’s North East

A confrontation between the Syrian government and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces has redrawn the country’s political map. Both sides should quickly return to the negotiating table.

www.crisisgroup.org/stm/middle-e...
Preventing Further Escalation in Syria’s North East | International Crisis Group
A dramatic confrontation between the Syrian government and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces has redrawn Syria’s political map. A U.S.-mediated ceasefire appears on the verge of collapse. More host...
www.crisisgroup.org
January 21, 2026 at 6:33 AM
UPCOMING ONLINE EVENT | LGBTQI+ People and Conflict in Colombia

18 February | 9:30am Bogota | 15:30pm Brussels | 9:30am New York

W/ @cristaldowning.bsky.social, Arlene Tickner, Wilson Castañeda, Juanita Velez, and @renatasegura.bsky.social

Registration ⬇️
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
January 20, 2026 at 3:05 PM
Nicolás Maduro is gone in Venezuela. What’s less clear is what comes next.

@philgunson.bsky.social explains why a true democratic transition could be indefinitely postponed: www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
January 19, 2026 at 5:17 PM
Reposted by Crisis Group
Antes de la captura de Maduro, el ELN estaba tomando medidas para garantizar la seguridad de sus intereses en las zonas fronterizas, independientemente de lo que ocurriera en Caracas.

Mi columna @crisisgroup.org en @nytimeses.nytimes.com
👇

www.nytimes.com/es/2026/01/1...
Algo malo se gesta en la frontera de Venezuela
www.nytimes.com
January 17, 2026 at 8:57 PM
NEW UPDATE | On Our Radar

🇬🇱 Several European NATO members have deployed troops to Greenland
🔴 Thousands demonstrate in north east Syria
🇨🇺 Bodies of Cuban soldiers killed during U.S. raid in Venezuela arrived in Havana

www.crisisgroup.org/global/our-r...
January 19, 2026 at 10:17 AM