Crisis Group
banner
crisisgroup.org
Crisis Group
@crisisgroup.org
We're an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation, committed to preventing and resolving deadly conflict.
Reposted by Crisis Group
Pleased to speak with @cnn.com about what accountability for the killing spree at sea could look like—both in the near term and the long term.

www.cnn.com/2025/12/07/p...
Trump is immune from accountability for boat strikes. What about everyone under him? | CNN Politics
There is one person who can never face any accountability for the killing of people clinging to an alleged drug boat in the Caribbean in September.
www.cnn.com
December 9, 2025 at 2:31 PM
Reposted by Crisis Group
Pleased to speak to @ewong.bsky.social about the administration’s legal problems in dealing with the survivors of one of the boat strikes.

“From the administration’s point of view, there are good reasons to be averse to bringing survivors to Guantánamo Bay or to the continental United States.”
NEW: Pentagon lawyers asked State Dept. if US could send survivors of Trump's boat strikes to a notorious prison in El Salvador. Then Pentagon pushed to have survivors sent anywhere but the US — to prevent any US court cases. Gift link to our @nytimes.com story: www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/u...
Inside the Pentagon’s Scramble to Deal With Boat Strike Survivors
www.nytimes.com
December 10, 2025 at 3:10 AM
Reposted by Crisis Group
A delicate dance taking place among EU members to bypass one of its own in effort “to indefinitely immobilise up to €210bn in Russian sovereign assets” as Trump applies more pressure on Zelenskyy to respond within days on his latest peace proposal.

giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
EU races to bypass Viktor Orbán on Russian assets before summit
Move to outvote Hungary this week would indefinitely immobilise Moscow’s sovereign assets
giftarticle.ft.com
December 10, 2025 at 8:59 AM
Reposted by Crisis Group
Pleased & proud to have this new @crisisgroup.org report on Türkiye-Iraq relations, a collaboration between our Europe & Central Asia Program & our Middle East Program staff. It lays out rapprochement to date & prospects and pitfalls for the future.
Strengthening Iraq-Türkiye Ties amid Regional Tensions | International Crisis Group
After years of fraught relations, Ankara and Baghdad are charting a course toward rapprochement. But much depends on how the two sides (and other parties) manage various thorny issues. They should mak...
www.crisisgroup.org
December 9, 2025 at 11:46 AM
NEW Q&A | Myanmar’s Military Seeks Vote of Approval in One-sided Polls

Close to five years after staging a coup, Myanmar’s military regime is holding elections in a bid for legitimacy. We explore the military’s hopes of normalisation and the risks ahead.

www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
Myanmar’s Military Seeks Vote of Approval in One-sided Polls | International Crisis Group
Close to five years after staging a coup, Myanmar’s military regime is holding elections in a bid for legitimacy despite internal conflict and simmering public discontent. In this Q&A, Crisis Group ex...
www.crisisgroup.org
December 9, 2025 at 5:02 PM
NEW REPORT | Strengthening Iraq-Türkiye Ties amid Regional Tensions

Ankara and Baghdad are charting a course toward rapprochement. But much depends on how the two sides manage various thorny issues. They should make every effort to sustain momentum.

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
Strengthening Iraq-Türkiye Ties amid Regional Tensions | International Crisis Group
After years of fraught relations, Ankara and Baghdad are charting a course toward rapprochement. But much depends on how the two sides (and other parties) manage various thorny issues. They should mak...
www.crisisgroup.org
December 9, 2025 at 11:19 AM
🎧 NEW EPISODE | The Horn

This week, we speak with Heiko Nitzschke, Germany’s special envoy for the Horn of Africa, to discuss how Berlin and other European capitals approach foreign policy in the region.

www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-...
Global Disorder, Horn of Africa Turmoil. Can Europe Keep Up? | International Crisis Group
This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Heiko Nitzschke, Germany’s special envoy for the Horn of Africa, to discuss how Berlin and other European capitals approach foreign policy in the region amid co...
www.crisisgroup.org
December 8, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Reposted by Crisis Group
Peaceful protesters plan to take to the streets again in Tanzania tomorrow, just weeks after the police went on a murderous rampage, executing hundreds of people.

We @crisisgroup.org urge the authorities to stop the repression and instead start listening.
www.crisisgroup.org/africa/tanza...
Tanzania: Preventing Another Massacre | International Crisis Group
Campaigners in Tanzania are planning peaceful protests on 9 December, weeks after police killed hundreds in a brutal post-election crackdown. Authorities must desist from yet more wanton violence. Loo...
www.crisisgroup.org
December 8, 2025 at 1:17 PM
NEW UPDATE | On Our Radar

🇷🇼 🇨🇩 Presidents of DR Congo and Rwanda sign a peace agreement
🇭🇹 Criminal gangs launch attack in Haiti, killing dozens
🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Russian President Vladimir Putin doubles down on the threats to Europe

www.crisisgroup.org/global/our-r...
December 8, 2025 at 9:44 AM
NEW STATEMENT | Preventing Another Massacre in Tanzania

Campaigners are planning peaceful protests on 9 December, weeks after police killed hundreds in a brutal post-election crackdown. Authorities must desist from yet more wanton violence.

www.crisisgroup.org/africa/tanza...
Tanzania: Preventing Another Massacre | International Crisis Group
Campaigners in Tanzania are planning peaceful protests on 9 December, weeks after police killed hundreds in a brutal post-election crackdown. Au-thorities must desist from yet more wanton violence. Lo...
www.crisisgroup.org
December 5, 2025 at 5:28 PM
Reposted by Crisis Group
It was a real pleasure joining @audiecornish.bsky.social on @cnn.com this morning.

We discussed why the US is not engaged in an armed conflict against narcos despite the legal fantasyland created by DOJ.

And the bigger issues with SignalGate—including a pointless, unauthorized conflict in Yemen.
December 4, 2025 at 12:58 PM
Reposted by Crisis Group
This take in the wake of the first maritime attack of September 2nd holds up.
Last week I told @npr.org that there’s a word for premeditated killing outside of armed conflict: murder.

None of the Trump administration’s weak justifications for the lethal strike in the Caribbean have dissuaded me from applying that label here.

www.npr.org/2025/09/05/n...
International Crisis Group adviser on legality of U.S. strike on Venezuelan boat
President Trump ordered a strike on what he says was a Venezuelan vessel carrying drugs, killing 11 people. NPR asks Brian Finucane of the International Crisis Group if it violated laws.
www.npr.org
December 4, 2025 at 2:28 PM
NEW BRIEFING | LGBTQI+ People and Armed Groups in Colombia

The conflict has long been marked by attacks on the vulnerable. State institutions need to step up efforts to protect LGBTQI+ people from persecution, building on existing laws and policies.

www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
Exploiting Prejudice: LGBTQI+ People and Armed Groups in Colombia | International Crisis Group
Conflict in Colombia has long been marked by attacks on the vulnerable, not least LGBTQI+ people. As the government pursues its agenda of “total peace”, state institutions need to step up efforts to p...
www.crisisgroup.org
December 3, 2025 at 4:23 PM
🚨 New update from our global conflict tracker

⚡️ 5 risk alerts in December

↘️ 5 conflict deteriorations

www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch?...
December 3, 2025 at 8:26 AM
NEW UPDATE | On Our Radar

🇮🇱 🇱🇧 Israel strikes Beirut’s southern suburb in Lebanon

🇸🇩 Rapid Support Forces declare a three-month unilateral ceasefire in Sudan

🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israeli settler attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank soar

www.crisisgroup.org/global/our-r...
December 1, 2025 at 9:48 AM
Reposted by Crisis Group
"Kiir’s purge is destabilising South Sudan on several fronts – in terms of security, governance and humanitarian conditions – and pushing the country closer to renewed conflict than at any point since the 2018 accord." @crisisgroup.org

www.crisisgroup.org/africa/south...
A Trial for South Sudan’s Frail Peace | International Crisis Group
The trial of South Sudan’s First Vice President Riek Machar represents one of the greatest threats to the country’s stability since the end of its civil war in 2018. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert D...
www.crisisgroup.org
November 27, 2025 at 7:33 PM
📅 ONLINE EVENT | Violence and Organised Crime in Ecuador

🕐 2 December | 10am Quito | 10am New York | 4pm Brussels

w/ @glaeldys.bsky.social,Karol Norona, Guido Núñez and @renatasegura.bsky.social.

Registration ⬇️

us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
December 1, 2025 at 9:30 AM
NEW ANALYST’S NOTEBOOK | Schools Shut Down across Northern Nigeria in Wake of Mass Abductions

Nnamdi Obasi analyses the kidnappings of over 300 students and churchgoers in November and the implications for northern Nigeria’s hard-hit education system.
www.crisisgroup.org/africa/niger...
Schools Shut Down across Northern Nigeria in Wake of Mass Abductions | International Crisis Group
Crisis Group expert Nnamdi Obasi analyses the kidnappings of over 300 students and churchgoers in November and the implications for northern Nigeria’s hard-hit education system
www.crisisgroup.org
November 28, 2025 at 2:48 PM
NEW UPDATE | On The Horizon: November 2025 - April 2026

Here are some of the conflicts and crises that may emerge or escalate in the next three to six months. ⬇️
www.crisisgroup.org/bangladesh-d...
On the Horizon: November 2025-April 2026 | International Crisis Group
This edition of On the Horizon includes entries on Bangladesh, DR Congo, Lebanon and South Sudan, sounding the alarm about conflicts and crises that may emerge or escalate in the next three to six mon...
www.crisisgroup.org
November 28, 2025 at 12:12 PM
🎧 New Episode | War & Peace

This week, we discuss how the war in Ukraine has shaped and amplified gender inequalities and how women and women’s organisations are stepping up to meet these challenges.

www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
How Ukraine’s Women Are Meeting the Challenges of War | International Crisis Group
This week on War & Peace, Elissa and guest host Alissa de Carbonnel speak with Sabine Freizer Gunes, UN Women Representative in Ukraine, about how the war has shaped and amplified gender inequalities ...
www.crisisgroup.org
November 27, 2025 at 1:35 PM
NEW BRIEFING | Shan Politics and Conflict in Post-coup Myanmar

Already reeling from decades of conflict, Shan State has entered a new and more volatile phase since Myanmar’s 2021 coup. National and international actors should work to ease tensions.
www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
Fractured Heartland: Shan Politics and Conflict in Post-coup Myanmar | International Crisis Group
The 2021 coup upended the balance of power in Shan State, Myanmar’s largest. As anti-military resistance grew, non-Shan ethnic armed groups moved into areas of the northern trade corridor, to the Shan...
www.crisisgroup.org
November 27, 2025 at 12:12 PM
NEW Q&A | A Trial for South Sudan’s Frail Peace

Riek Machar’s trial represents one of the greatest threats to the country’s stability since the end of its civil war. @jongethon.bsky.social analyses the charges against Machar and the danger they pose.

www.crisisgroup.org/africa/south...
A Trial for South Sudan’s Frail Peace | International Crisis Group
The trial of South Sudan’s First Vice President Riek Machar represents one of the greatest threats to the country’s stability since the end of its civil war in 2018. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert D...
www.crisisgroup.org
November 27, 2025 at 11:04 AM
Reposted by Crisis Group
Honouring his predecessor's planned travel, Pope Leo chooses Turkey and Lebanon for first foreign visit and "underscores the message he sent from his very first Sunday address in May when he called for peace."

www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/w...
Pope Leo Set to Visit Mideast on First Trip as Pontiff
www.nytimes.com
November 26, 2025 at 1:18 PM
NEW REPORT | Restoring Security in Post-Assad Syria

Two major crises have tested Syria’s new government. Its heavy-handed response has alienated parts of society. To keep the transition on track, it needs to remedy flaws in its security approach.

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
Restoring Security in Post-Assad Syria: Lessons from the Coast and Suweida | International Crisis Group
Two major crises – one in majority-Alawite areas and another in the largely Druze south – have tested Syria’s new government in 2025. Its heavy-handed response has alienated parts of society. To keep ...
www.crisisgroup.org
November 26, 2025 at 2:39 PM
Reposted by Crisis Group
Recommend this new @foreignaffairs.com piece from our @crisisgroup.org expert in Caracas, @philgunson.bsky.social.

"[T]he assumption that forcefully overthrowing the current government will lead to a smooth transition to democracy is dangerous."

www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
The Peril of Ousting Maduro
Only a gradual transition—not regime change by corce—can restore Venezuela’s democracy.
www.foreignaffairs.com
November 23, 2025 at 8:45 PM