Conor McGovern
@conormcgovern.bsky.social
Baseball is live action Excel (laudatory). Had a humiliating career as a minor league hockey goalie. Dad. Former union boss. School meals scientist by day
Covering the AA Eastern League for the Dynasty Dugout (https://www.thedynastydugout.com/)
Covering the AA Eastern League for the Dynasty Dugout (https://www.thedynastydugout.com/)
Hot take but I think "his [xERA/xAVG] is better than his [ERA/AVG] ergo he's better than the stats say" is a lazy take and a lot of folks lean hard on it in the absence of analyzing why that discrepancy exists
November 27, 2025 at 12:52 AM
Hot take but I think "his [xERA/xAVG] is better than his [ERA/AVG] ergo he's better than the stats say" is a lazy take and a lot of folks lean hard on it in the absence of analyzing why that discrepancy exists
The Guard on mission in DC are, notably, mostly people from DC itself and were very pleasant and purposefully distanced themselves from ICE. The mission also failed to accomplish any of its goals because, hey, everyone is inured to uniforms in DC as people commute to their Pentagon email jobs
November 26, 2025 at 9:03 PM
The Guard on mission in DC are, notably, mostly people from DC itself and were very pleasant and purposefully distanced themselves from ICE. The mission also failed to accomplish any of its goals because, hey, everyone is inured to uniforms in DC as people commute to their Pentagon email jobs
Reposted by Conor McGovern
Whether this was random street crime or targeted political violence, I think it was bad for the president to unnecessarily put the National Guard in harm’s way like this. They simply don’t need to be there.
November 26, 2025 at 8:41 PM
Whether this was random street crime or targeted political violence, I think it was bad for the president to unnecessarily put the National Guard in harm’s way like this. They simply don’t need to be there.
Reposted by Conor McGovern
Why impact evaluations are so important: not everything that sounds like a good policy actually has the desired impact. While many interventions are highly effective, others don't work at all:
Examining the One Laptop Per Child program in Peruvian rural primary schools finds no significant effects on academic performance but some evidence of negative ones on grade progression, from Cueto, Beuermann, Cristia, Malamud, and Pardo www.nber.org/papers/w34495
November 26, 2025 at 2:07 AM
Why impact evaluations are so important: not everything that sounds like a good policy actually has the desired impact. While many interventions are highly effective, others don't work at all:
One thing that's a very clear trend in my suburban DC town with a strong sense of community is that the highly ideological right-wingers, of which there's been a decent sized influx in the last few years, basically do not (and their kids do not) participate in any established community organizations
I'm not sure how this ends, because the Boy Scouts is very apolitically small-c-conservative and patriotic but it's also mostly run by suburban moms.
Hegseth is very very terrified, deep deep down of something to do with maleness www.npr.org/2025/11/25/n...
November 25, 2025 at 1:18 PM
One thing that's a very clear trend in my suburban DC town with a strong sense of community is that the highly ideological right-wingers, of which there's been a decent sized influx in the last few years, basically do not (and their kids do not) participate in any established community organizations
It'd be cool if we could get RCV for state and local elections in the state represented by the subject of the cover image here, but our overlords in Annapolis won't stand for it
Democratic politicians and activists are quietly lobbying to upend the way the party picks its presidential nominee by urging the use of ranked-choice voting.
Scoop: Democrats eye ranked-choice voting for 2028 primaries
It's a tool that drew national attention when it propelled New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani to a decisive primary win.
www.axios.com
November 24, 2025 at 2:43 AM
It'd be cool if we could get RCV for state and local elections in the state represented by the subject of the cover image here, but our overlords in Annapolis won't stand for it
Reposted by Conor McGovern
asking the doge guy to send me 5 bullet points on what he accomplished this week
November 23, 2025 at 5:10 AM
asking the doge guy to send me 5 bullet points on what he accomplished this week
I guess this horrifying stuff all of Bluesky is buzzing about is the Orioles decision to tender Mountcastle and non-tendered Big Al. I know, it breaks my brain too
November 22, 2025 at 12:32 PM
I guess this horrifying stuff all of Bluesky is buzzing about is the Orioles decision to tender Mountcastle and non-tendered Big Al. I know, it breaks my brain too
Any intentional throwaway to space or the sidelines should be flagged like intentional grounding. Passes should need to be put in play and to a receiver.
Tonight’s discourse bores me
what good policy would you pitch trump in a meeting that you think he’d half remember well enough to keep talking about it
what good policy would you pitch trump in a meeting that you think he’d half remember well enough to keep talking about it
Trump in a room with a very charismatic person results in like half a day of Trump agreeing with everything that person said, so this has the potential to be very, very funny.
November 21, 2025 at 3:38 AM
Any intentional throwaway to space or the sidelines should be flagged like intentional grounding. Passes should need to be put in play and to a receiver.
This was my initial thought on waking up this morning. I think Ward's a good baseball player, and I was excited for Rodriguez. But man he must be cooked.
This front office, which is full of value maximizing nerds, gave up four years of control of Rodriguez for one year of control of Ward. Think about what that says about what they think of Rodriguez's health.
November 19, 2025 at 11:07 AM
This was my initial thought on waking up this morning. I think Ward's a good baseball player, and I was excited for Rodriguez. But man he must be cooked.
Reposted by Conor McGovern
We really need baseball back.
November 18, 2025 at 7:21 PM
We really need baseball back.
People are going to compare this to Platner but the downside risk of Maryland Man running for state senate, where Dems enjoy a supermajority, isn't really comparable
MD Senate President Bill Ferguson, who has blocked mid-decade redistricting, just earned a challenge in next year's Democratic primary from Army veteran Bobby LaPin, a charter boat operator best known in Baltimore as the "Sail Local Guy."
LaPin says he's specifically motivated by redistricting.
LaPin says he's specifically motivated by redistricting.
Baltimore influencer to challenge Sen. Bill Ferguson in primary election
Baltimore social media influencer and small-business owner Bobby LaPin will challenge Senate President Bill Ferguson in the Democratic primary in June.
www.thebanner.com
November 17, 2025 at 4:05 PM
People are going to compare this to Platner but the downside risk of Maryland Man running for state senate, where Dems enjoy a supermajority, isn't really comparable
Not wholly apropos but the "tax collector" translation always bothers me because it leads modern listeners to think the people Christ talks about were Roman IRS agents and they were hated because, hey, everyone hates taxes. But they were really tax farmers, two-bit mobsters doing protection rackets
tradcaths are like "why is the pope doing this" as if there aren't very famous examples of jesus christ meeting with people considered to be sinners or societal outcasts (e.g. matthew the tax collector) www.thepinknews.com/2025/11/14/p...
Pope Leo set to dine with trans activists during Sunday's Jubilee for the Poor
Pope Leo XIV will meet and dine with Alessia Nobile and other trans Catholic activists this Sunday, during a special Vatican lunch marking the Church’s
www.thepinknews.com
November 15, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Not wholly apropos but the "tax collector" translation always bothers me because it leads modern listeners to think the people Christ talks about were Roman IRS agents and they were hated because, hey, everyone hates taxes. But they were really tax farmers, two-bit mobsters doing protection rackets
Reposted by Conor McGovern
I'm assuming this is not the first "Royals face decision on India" headline the Times has ever run, though perhaps the first in about 80 years
www.nytimes.com/athletic/680...
www.nytimes.com/athletic/680...
November 13, 2025 at 2:00 PM
I'm assuming this is not the first "Royals face decision on India" headline the Times has ever run, though perhaps the first in about 80 years
www.nytimes.com/athletic/680...
www.nytimes.com/athletic/680...
This guy just landed on FanGraphs and Savant for the first time
New baseball operations president Paul DePodesta says the #Rockies have more analytical tools than people think. The goal is setting procedures to use it successfuly.
www.mlb.com/news/paul-de...
www.mlb.com/news/paul-de...
DePodesta already digging in on how to improve Rockies' reputation
LAS VEGAS -- The Rockies’ acknowledge being behind other clubs in the use of modern baseball information. But their reputation -- which practically says Old Hoss Radbourn had better analytics when he ...
www.mlb.com
November 13, 2025 at 3:30 AM
This guy just landed on FanGraphs and Savant for the first time
One fun fact about Delaware is Newark and the beach towns have aldermen in lieu of courts that serve as judge and jury on all misdemeanors, citations, and traffic violations in the town. The alderman is a volunteer position that requires no experience practicing law. They're total kangaroo courts
It's more like Connecticut sutured onto South Carolina
November 12, 2025 at 8:44 PM
One fun fact about Delaware is Newark and the beach towns have aldermen in lieu of courts that serve as judge and jury on all misdemeanors, citations, and traffic violations in the town. The alderman is a volunteer position that requires no experience practicing law. They're total kangaroo courts
Wrote an article explaining Predict+, a model that quantifies how easy or hard it is to predict what a pitcher will throw. The article includes links to a Tableau dashboard, the raw output data for the 2025 regular season for MLB and AAA, and the GitHub repo comcgovern36.substack.com/p/introducin...
Introducing Predict+
Measuring MLB and AAA pitcher unpredictability through machine learning analysis of pitch selection
comcgovern36.substack.com
November 12, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Wrote an article explaining Predict+, a model that quantifies how easy or hard it is to predict what a pitcher will throw. The article includes links to a Tableau dashboard, the raw output data for the 2025 regular season for MLB and AAA, and the GitHub repo comcgovern36.substack.com/p/introducin...
Made a dashboard with the 2025 Predict+ regular season data for MLB and AAA. You can plot it against a bunch of process and outcome stats as well. public.tableau.com/app/profile/...
public.tableau.com
November 10, 2025 at 7:28 PM
Made a dashboard with the 2025 Predict+ regular season data for MLB and AAA. You can plot it against a bunch of process and outcome stats as well. public.tableau.com/app/profile/...
Not sure anyone has mentioned this, but the CR also covers backpay for workers at any state agency or federal grantee who were furloughed because of the shutdown of their federal programs AND guarantees that in the event of another shutdown in FY 2026. That's huge
November 10, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Not sure anyone has mentioned this, but the CR also covers backpay for workers at any state agency or federal grantee who were furloughed because of the shutdown of their federal programs AND guarantees that in the event of another shutdown in FY 2026. That's huge
I don't understand this. They fought using the means available to them, which were meager. Further fighting meant pulling the "starve millions of kids" lever with no further odds of success.
The professional take-haver class is not covering itself in glory this morning
The professional take-haver class is not covering itself in glory this morning
seems to me that those democrats inclined not to fight perceive themselves as living through a somewhat ordinary cycle of presidential overreach and backlash and not something much more significant and dangerous
November 10, 2025 at 1:18 PM
I don't understand this. They fought using the means available to them, which were meager. Further fighting meant pulling the "starve millions of kids" lever with no further odds of success.
The professional take-haver class is not covering itself in glory this morning
The professional take-haver class is not covering itself in glory this morning
Well, since it looks like I'll only be out of work for one more week before it's back to the school meal research mines, I'll make sure to get my Predict+ public release up in the next couple days. Putting together a Tableau dashboard for the 2025 MLB and AAA data
November 10, 2025 at 1:56 AM
Well, since it looks like I'll only be out of work for one more week before it's back to the school meal research mines, I'll make sure to get my Predict+ public release up in the next couple days. Putting together a Tableau dashboard for the 2025 MLB and AAA data
Reposted by Conor McGovern
This is an important offseason for the Orioles
An A+ offseason makes them contenders again
A C offseason tilts them towards a rebuild
Here’s a rubric for grading the upcoming Orioles offseason
thedishwasher.blog/2025/11/07/o...
An A+ offseason makes them contenders again
A C offseason tilts them towards a rebuild
Here’s a rubric for grading the upcoming Orioles offseason
thedishwasher.blog/2025/11/07/o...
Orioles Offseason Rubric
Five months from now the offseason will be over and we’ll be able to grade Mike Elias’ offseason. When I was in school I really appreciated when a professor gave you a detailed rubric that outlined…
thedishwasher.blog
November 7, 2025 at 2:26 PM
This is an important offseason for the Orioles
An A+ offseason makes them contenders again
A C offseason tilts them towards a rebuild
Here’s a rubric for grading the upcoming Orioles offseason
thedishwasher.blog/2025/11/07/o...
An A+ offseason makes them contenders again
A C offseason tilts them towards a rebuild
Here’s a rubric for grading the upcoming Orioles offseason
thedishwasher.blog/2025/11/07/o...
Did the Rockies actually hire Paul DePodesta or did they accidentally hire Jonah Hill?
November 6, 2025 at 9:09 PM
Did the Rockies actually hire Paul DePodesta or did they accidentally hire Jonah Hill?
Spent all day trying to patch my R code to see if I could get AAA Statcast data to download and finally got it. Ran the Predict+ model for the 2025 regular season and, wouldn't you know it, Trey Gibson had the highest Predict+ (121) among pitchers with 500 or more pitches at the level.
November 6, 2025 at 8:54 PM
Spent all day trying to patch my R code to see if I could get AAA Statcast data to download and finally got it. Ran the Predict+ model for the 2025 regular season and, wouldn't you know it, Trey Gibson had the highest Predict+ (121) among pitchers with 500 or more pitches at the level.
RFK making like Ray Lewis at a Super Bowl party
holy shit -- one of Trump's toadies just passed out and the White House event is brought to an abrupt end
November 6, 2025 at 5:50 PM
RFK making like Ray Lewis at a Super Bowl party