Self-described progressives had higher favorables for Golden than moderates by a factor of two — and Golden was underwater with every single demographic, even liberals and Democrats (overall). Evidence suggests that being a bland centrist just makes everyone dislike you

Last night's Predict+ scores. Yamamoto wasn't just masterful in guts and execution, his pitch selections also differed significantly from what he did in the regular season in comparable situations. Some of that may have just been exhaustion, but it made him even more difficult to face.

Predict+ scores from Game 5. Seranthony Dominguez and Trey Yesavage led the way as the most difficult to predict, with Blake Treinen being the most predictable based on his pitch selections in 2025.

Predict+ scores for pitchers who played for the Orioles in 2025. Predict+ is a measure of how much actual pitch selection differs in a given situation from what the model predicts based on the pitcher's data, so Garcia and Bradish often fooled the model while it often guessed right for Felix or Cano

Predict+ from last night's game. Varland had the most surprising pitch selection, and Banda was the most predictable.

Highest and lowest Predict+ scores from last night's game. Note that Will Klein's relatively low sample size in the training data probably explains some of this, but pretty clear the Blue Jays had no idea what to expect with him, and he executed his strategy nearly perfectly.

The bottom of the list — note the position players at the very bottom. Wasn't something I had considered but it's a nice way to that the model is behaving appropriately, since facially Austin Hedges probably should have the most predictable pitch selection!

I did a test using the last 60 days of the 2025 season with pitchers who threw more than 50 pitches in the timeframe. Predict+ is indexed to 100 as average across the set, with each 10 points above 100 being one standard deviation more unpredictable and each 10 points below one SD more predictable

Well, we got Trey Gibson's Statcast data and... this is the best Orioles pitching prospect since GrayRod. His arsenal plays so well — lots of called strikes as he bamboozles hitters, with the raw stuff to generate whiffs too. The sinker he added in Double-A seems to have unlocked top-end potential.