John West
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jwestjourno.bsky.social
John West
@jwestjourno.bsky.social
570 followers 830 following 600 posts
M&A, macro and politics. Global Commentary Editor, Mergermarket. Any views expressed are regrettably my own. One half of @illexplainlater.bsky.social - a Doctor Who podcast.
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$40bn enterprise spend on GenAI for little return. Dotcom bubble déjà vu. NVIDIA’s Nov earnings a key catalyst.
“Where we’re going, we don’t need roads.” But maybe a seatbelt? My latest on US stock correction risk for Mergermarket.
🧵👇
ionanalytics.com/insights/mer...
AI valuations augur correction amid ‘Back to the Future’ parallel – Continental Drift
Hype around and investment in AI despite slight returns parallels late-90s dotcom bubble and present valuations might prove unsustainable
ionanalytics.com
I must be very dim - there’s a debate about their posts elsewhere? This has passed me by, alas. I’m a member and have very little sense what’s happening other than financial stress.
Ditto, @beernouveau.co.uk - would you be kind enough to unpack this a bit for those of us in the cheap seats, please? Ta!
Reposted by John West
I used to defend the BBC’s coverage until fairly recently. Election night 2024 was probably the point at which I snapped and could no longer avoid facing what it had become.
Nothing on the BBC Radio news this morning. Nothing I could find on their website. This is an MP from the party whose lead in the opinion polls normally ensures them wall-to-wall coverage. She spouts racist nonsense for which even she feels obliged to apologise. What on earth are they playing at?
Reform’s Sarah Pochin forced to apologise after claiming adverts 'full of black people' drive her 'mad’ | LBC
The Runcorn and Helsby MP was responding to a viewer live on air who complained about the demographics of advertising.
www.lbc.co.uk
Labour’s pearl clutching about Tory and Reform plans falls flat when they are taking us down the same path. Bereft of any moral backbone whatsoever. A line needs to be drawn.
Labour’s plan to move the goalposts by increasing the ILR qualifying period from 5 to 10 years for legal migrants already on the path could potentially affect over a million people, cripple industries and the NHS and destroy trust in the immigration system. They should absolutely rethink their plan.
Reposted by John West
Shame and grim that there's going to be zero consequences for saying this stuff.
Reform UK MP Sarah Pochin, “It drives me mad seeing adverts full of black people, full of Asian people, full of anything other than white"

Followed by that time Sarah Pochin said, "My kids say: mum, you're such a moron" 👀
Reposted by John West
Reposted by John West
Broadcasters - especially the BBC - have been working hard to ensure they give a voice to the 25-35% of people willing to vote Reform (and harder groups within that, like anti-asylum protest and Tommy protest)

Need to pay as much attention to the unheard majority who fear that form of politics
Reposted by John West
Just remember, a lot of people with ILR have it because they're married to a British person and haven't earned more than that £38700 threshold (which only came in recently so wouldn't have affected a lot of long term couples) - as far as I can see the Tories are planning to strip ILR from them too
Mass deporting millions of people legally living here in order to make the UK "culturally coherent" is "broadly in line" with Conservative party policy, says Kemi Badenoch's spokesman
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Hadn’t, in truth, really absorbed the scale of what the Conservatives are proposing on ILR and immigration more broadly until this week’s Sunday Times interviews. Some thoughts on that in today’s note:
Tory deportation plan would upend Britain
Proposing such a radical bill with little public support is a gift to Nigel Farage
www.ft.com
Reposted by John West
This is deranged and dangerous from the Conservatives, and similarly from Reform. If they could enact it, it would rip British society apart, destroy the economy & NHS, & make the UK an international pariah. Every decent politician & political journalist/commentator needs to push back hard.
The draft legislation is crackers. It would fail immediately if we stayed in the ECHR but it disappears the human rights act. if passed after that it would involve mandatory loss of ILR for up to 400,000 people + refusal of 2-3 million others, though without no credible means to identify or remove
Here Lam explicitly sets out her proposal - which is official Conservative Party policy - to deport long-standing legal permanent residents who have *ever* claimed any benefit, including the state pension or child benefit (even if the child is British), or who earn less than £39K.
Reposted by John West
Here Lam explicitly sets out her proposal - which is official Conservative Party policy - to deport long-standing legal permanent residents who have *ever* claimed any benefit, including the state pension or child benefit (even if the child is British), or who earn less than £39K.
Reposted by John West
Tory policy is to revoke permanent residence (ILR) for everybody who does not earn £38k - deporting most nurses who have ILR

This is put in the video as "who is unlikely to contribute more than they cost"

NB: video does not say EU settled status is exempt

No govt since Idi Amin has done this
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They had a full day to craft this statement and they still couldn’t bring themselves to say “this is unconscionable and we would never change the rules on people in this way” without adding the rider “as long as they deserve it”. Who is this even for?
“We welcome those who come to this country, legally, and give more than they take. We believe the right to stay here must not be automatic, but that those who play their part should be able to earn that right."
Exactly. The compute power will become commoditised and the value will accrue to companies with decent prompt engineering depts and solution providers who can prove legit SaaS 2.0 benefits. Alphabet and Amazon are in the Mag 7. Verizon and AT&T ain’t.
Reposted by John West
Reposted by John West
I’ve got a lot more accepting of left wing analysis of the media that I previously thought was a bit paranoid or overdone.
Sorry to have to share this but this evidence that the leader of the free world has gone insane is apparently not newsworthy to the BBC, the Times etc
Trump posts AI video showing him literally dumping shit on America
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These changes - preventing those who’ve successfully claimed asylum from bringing family here, as they used to - will cause colossal damage and distress to people, and the miserable, dishonest, superficial, headline-grabbing “process” the government has followed is shameful beyond belief
Parliamentary committee says about the government’s restrictions on refugee family reunion rights that immigration policymaking “too frequently react[s] to events, rather than proceeding from rigorous analysis and supported by evidence” and accuses govt of “policymaking by press release” >
House of Lords - Thirty Seventh Report - Secondary Legislation Scrutiny Committee
publications.parliament.uk
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Most Britons think Brexit has been a failure, including the overwhelming majority of voters who put Labour in power last year, and you want to go about telling them they're wrong to appease a coalition of voters who didn't vote for you and/or are literally dead?
The gaping void where the centre right should be ought to give Labour the confidence to speak for graduate professionals and take their votes for a generation. And they need an offer for them if they’re going to put up their taxes.
I mean genuinely no disrespect - quite the opposite! - to @economistmeg.bsky.social in saying that this is up there with “2+2=4” in obviousness. It’s depressing beyond words this needs to be debated; it should be rote consensus. Political bravery on this is notable by its absence.
Brexit hit productivity and lowered the economy’s non-inflationary “speed limit,” Greene ( @economistmeg.bsky.social ) said. Undoing some of the damage by rebuilding EU relations would lift Britain’s growth potential, enabling more activity without triggering price rises.
Closer UK-EU Ties Would Help Inflation Fight, BOE’s Greene Says
An improved UK relationship with the European Union would help the Bank of England keep inflation under control, BOE policymaker Megan Greene said.
www.bloomberg.com
Reposted by John West
$40bn enterprise spend on GenAI for little return. Dotcom bubble déjà vu. NVIDIA’s Nov earnings a key catalyst.
“Where we’re going, we don’t need roads.” But maybe a seatbelt? My latest on US stock correction risk for Mergermarket.
🧵👇
ionanalytics.com/insights/mer...
AI valuations augur correction amid ‘Back to the Future’ parallel – Continental Drift
Hype around and investment in AI despite slight returns parallels late-90s dotcom bubble and present valuations might prove unsustainable
ionanalytics.com
Reposted by John West
$40bn enterprise spend on GenAI for little return. Dotcom bubble déjà vu. NVIDIA’s Nov earnings a key catalyst.
“Where we’re going, we don’t need roads.” But maybe a seatbelt? My latest on US stock correction risk for Mergermarket.
🧵👇
ionanalytics.com/insights/mer...
AI valuations augur correction amid ‘Back to the Future’ parallel – Continental Drift
Hype around and investment in AI despite slight returns parallels late-90s dotcom bubble and present valuations might prove unsustainable
ionanalytics.com