Anthony Painter
@anthonypainter.bsky.social
Policy. Political economy. Increasing bewilderment.
"The Three Economies" Substack here: https://open.substack.com/pub/anthonypainter
#ynwa
"The Three Economies" Substack here: https://open.substack.com/pub/anthonypainter
#ynwa
Reposted by Anthony Painter
We have an HM Treasury that is simultaneously too strong and too weak in this Government. Worst of both worlds.
It has to pursue growth whilst:
1. Not fundamentally address the UK's trading position.
2. Wanting net emigration.
3. Having to load taxes onto business because tax pledges.
It has to pursue growth whilst:
1. Not fundamentally address the UK's trading position.
2. Wanting net emigration.
3. Having to load taxes onto business because tax pledges.
November 29, 2025 at 9:35 AM
We have an HM Treasury that is simultaneously too strong and too weak in this Government. Worst of both worlds.
It has to pursue growth whilst:
1. Not fundamentally address the UK's trading position.
2. Wanting net emigration.
3. Having to load taxes onto business because tax pledges.
It has to pursue growth whilst:
1. Not fundamentally address the UK's trading position.
2. Wanting net emigration.
3. Having to load taxes onto business because tax pledges.
I know a few people who have done this. And they've loved it. Moved closer to cultural (and health!) amenities which is what you really want when you have time/money and it's given them a whole new lease of life.
In fact, this is exactly what we plan to do.
In fact, this is exactly what we plan to do.
Not really a comment on this story, but I think we should try to make it easier and more normalised to downsize in your 60s.
If left too late, moving house can be incredibly disorientating - and you don’t tend to know it’s too late until it is
If left too late, moving house can be incredibly disorientating - and you don’t tend to know it’s too late until it is
Her *6* bedroomed house in North Kensington. 6!
November 29, 2025 at 10:07 AM
I know a few people who have done this. And they've loved it. Moved closer to cultural (and health!) amenities which is what you really want when you have time/money and it's given them a whole new lease of life.
In fact, this is exactly what we plan to do.
In fact, this is exactly what we plan to do.
We have an HM Treasury that is simultaneously too strong and too weak in this Government. Worst of both worlds.
It has to pursue growth whilst:
1. Not fundamentally address the UK's trading position.
2. Wanting net emigration.
3. Having to load taxes onto business because tax pledges.
It has to pursue growth whilst:
1. Not fundamentally address the UK's trading position.
2. Wanting net emigration.
3. Having to load taxes onto business because tax pledges.
November 29, 2025 at 9:35 AM
We have an HM Treasury that is simultaneously too strong and too weak in this Government. Worst of both worlds.
It has to pursue growth whilst:
1. Not fundamentally address the UK's trading position.
2. Wanting net emigration.
3. Having to load taxes onto business because tax pledges.
It has to pursue growth whilst:
1. Not fundamentally address the UK's trading position.
2. Wanting net emigration.
3. Having to load taxes onto business because tax pledges.
Something's been nagging at me about the Budget. And it's the plans to increase taxation and reduce public spending in an election year.
Why would you do that?
Something's going on. And I think the Government disagrees with the OBR's growth forecasts.
It comes down to this.
Why would you do that?
Something's going on. And I think the Government disagrees with the OBR's growth forecasts.
It comes down to this.
November 29, 2025 at 8:03 AM
Something's been nagging at me about the Budget. And it's the plans to increase taxation and reduce public spending in an election year.
Why would you do that?
Something's going on. And I think the Government disagrees with the OBR's growth forecasts.
It comes down to this.
Why would you do that?
Something's going on. And I think the Government disagrees with the OBR's growth forecasts.
It comes down to this.
I finally got off Spotify. If there ever is a service that defines enshittification it's that. Awful listening experience. The thing that broke me was commercial radio style ads in podcasts (my #1 use case). I'm paying you ffs, why should I have to also listen to intrusive giff-gaff ads? Cheerio.
November 29, 2025 at 7:20 AM
I finally got off Spotify. If there ever is a service that defines enshittification it's that. Awful listening experience. The thing that broke me was commercial radio style ads in podcasts (my #1 use case). I'm paying you ffs, why should I have to also listen to intrusive giff-gaff ads? Cheerio.
Pin this post. Make a poster of it. Put it on your wall.
Is welfare spending ''out of control''?
It's estimated to be 10.8 per cent of GDP this financial year.
That's just 0.8 per cent of GDP higher than in 2007-08, and total welfare spending has actually fallen fallen by 1.2 per cent of GDP since 2012-13⤵️ buff.ly/s5mz97u
It's estimated to be 10.8 per cent of GDP this financial year.
That's just 0.8 per cent of GDP higher than in 2007-08, and total welfare spending has actually fallen fallen by 1.2 per cent of GDP since 2012-13⤵️ buff.ly/s5mz97u
November 28, 2025 at 5:34 PM
Pin this post. Make a poster of it. Put it on your wall.
I've joined a gym where you have to clock in and clock out via a pod and I keep imagining that I'm Adam Scott in Severance.
November 28, 2025 at 2:30 PM
I've joined a gym where you have to clock in and clock out via a pod and I keep imagining that I'm Adam Scott in Severance.
I keep seeing arguments that the Government should have spent the money on services eg Sure Start rather than lifting the two-child benefit cap.
The evidence for cash transfers is very strong. And cash transfers go straight to families.
Their decision is completely evidence backed and valid.
The evidence for cash transfers is very strong. And cash transfers go straight to families.
Their decision is completely evidence backed and valid.
November 28, 2025 at 11:41 AM
I keep seeing arguments that the Government should have spent the money on services eg Sure Start rather than lifting the two-child benefit cap.
The evidence for cash transfers is very strong. And cash transfers go straight to families.
Their decision is completely evidence backed and valid.
The evidence for cash transfers is very strong. And cash transfers go straight to families.
Their decision is completely evidence backed and valid.
Reposted by Anthony Painter
Really pleased to see a new commitment to place-based budgets today. Further progress towards the implementation of 'Total Place' principles as urged with @jesstud.bsky.social a couple of years ago. www.newlocal.org.uk/publications....
November 26, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Really pleased to see a new commitment to place-based budgets today. Further progress towards the implementation of 'Total Place' principles as urged with @jesstud.bsky.social a couple of years ago. www.newlocal.org.uk/publications....
Not sure fiercely defending houses worth over £2m whilst describing lifting 100,000s of kids out of poverty as "benefits street" is going to work as well for LOTO as she thinks.
November 26, 2025 at 7:59 PM
Not sure fiercely defending houses worth over £2m whilst describing lifting 100,000s of kids out of poverty as "benefits street" is going to work as well for LOTO as she thinks.
Think Reeves can chalk this up as a win. A big win actually.
U.K 30 YEAR GILT YIELD DOWN 9.8 BPS TO 5.23%, IN BIGGEST ONE DAY FALL SINCE APRIL
November 26, 2025 at 3:54 PM
Think Reeves can chalk this up as a win. A big win actually.
Today's Budget won't be a disaster - a long way from it - and it will do some very important things like removing the two-child benefit cap.
It will also leave the structural predicament of the UK economy and state in place.
A fight for another day: the search for a sustainable model of growth.
It will also leave the structural predicament of the UK economy and state in place.
A fight for another day: the search for a sustainable model of growth.
November 26, 2025 at 8:04 AM
Today's Budget won't be a disaster - a long way from it - and it will do some very important things like removing the two-child benefit cap.
It will also leave the structural predicament of the UK economy and state in place.
A fight for another day: the search for a sustainable model of growth.
It will also leave the structural predicament of the UK economy and state in place.
A fight for another day: the search for a sustainable model of growth.
Maybe the White House will offer @rutgerbregman.com asylum for his freedom to refer to Trump's corruption being obstructed by the BBC?
November 25, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Maybe the White House will offer @rutgerbregman.com asylum for his freedom to refer to Trump's corruption being obstructed by the BBC?
The problem with UK fiscal policy is low productivity, Brexit and a refusal of Chancellors to be straight with the public about what it costs to have the services they want.
None of this is the responsibility of the OBR.
If anything, they've been too accommodating.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
None of this is the responsibility of the OBR.
If anything, they've been too accommodating.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
The difficult question about how powerful the Budget watchdog is
Ahead of this week's Budget, some have accused the Office for Budget Responsibility of being a
www.bbc.co.uk
November 25, 2025 at 7:00 AM
The problem with UK fiscal policy is low productivity, Brexit and a refusal of Chancellors to be straight with the public about what it costs to have the services they want.
None of this is the responsibility of the OBR.
If anything, they've been too accommodating.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
None of this is the responsibility of the OBR.
If anything, they've been too accommodating.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
What's the opposite of the Overton window, where a mainstream concern such as restoring our relationship with the EU, is driven off the legitimate agenda by presenting a choice as an unchangeable reality?
There must be a snazzy polsci name for that. Because that's where we are.
There must be a snazzy polsci name for that. Because that's where we are.
She said the Office for Budget Responsibility’s report on Wednesday would conclude that a downgrade of productivity was down to Brexit and to the Conservative’s austerity measures – and would say explicitly that it was not due to the policies of the current government.
November 24, 2025 at 9:51 PM
What's the opposite of the Overton window, where a mainstream concern such as restoring our relationship with the EU, is driven off the legitimate agenda by presenting a choice as an unchangeable reality?
There must be a snazzy polsci name for that. Because that's where we are.
There must be a snazzy polsci name for that. Because that's where we are.
There are two polling questions on tax.
Do you support [x tax] on people who are not you? 60% support.
Do you support [y tax] on people like you? 25% support.
You don't even need to run the surveys- just drop the specific tax name into the above.
Do you support [x tax] on people who are not you? 60% support.
Do you support [y tax] on people like you? 25% support.
You don't even need to run the surveys- just drop the specific tax name into the above.
November 24, 2025 at 4:55 PM
There are two polling questions on tax.
Do you support [x tax] on people who are not you? 60% support.
Do you support [y tax] on people like you? 25% support.
You don't even need to run the surveys- just drop the specific tax name into the above.
Do you support [x tax] on people who are not you? 60% support.
Do you support [y tax] on people like you? 25% support.
You don't even need to run the surveys- just drop the specific tax name into the above.
One day we will stop this silly way of selling regulatory change. No, a single Arctic tern did not stop a nuclear power station being built and the quote itself shows that.
And yes, large volumes of environmental assessment are necessary for nuclear power stations. They can be destructive things.
And yes, large volumes of environmental assessment are necessary for nuclear power stations. They can be destructive things.
!["The discovery of one Arctic tern in Anglesey 10 years ago was one of the factors that scuppered Hitachi's AP1000 [reactor] being built there. There were other problems as well, but that was the straw that broke the camel's back,” he said.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:oabzqrmabjcgjz4e6fgkjdgn/bafkreia66pylx5rbwhew3ruxcta25dsctuwhudgpsazzwrtoqekrwm6v7q@jpeg)
November 24, 2025 at 7:34 AM
One day we will stop this silly way of selling regulatory change. No, a single Arctic tern did not stop a nuclear power station being built and the quote itself shows that.
And yes, large volumes of environmental assessment are necessary for nuclear power stations. They can be destructive things.
And yes, large volumes of environmental assessment are necessary for nuclear power stations. They can be destructive things.
To be clear, this is a tariff on our own exports.
Yes, it will raise money - tariffs do. The question is whether it will also cut exports from one of our core economic strengths- HE.
Yes, it will raise money - tariffs do. The question is whether it will also cut exports from one of our core economic strengths- HE.
i: Reeves to unveil £600m raid on foreign student
university fees #TomorrowsPapersToday
university fees #TomorrowsPapersToday
November 23, 2025 at 10:15 PM
To be clear, this is a tariff on our own exports.
Yes, it will raise money - tariffs do. The question is whether it will also cut exports from one of our core economic strengths- HE.
Yes, it will raise money - tariffs do. The question is whether it will also cut exports from one of our core economic strengths- HE.
The key to Blue Labour's influence is its understanding the sacred symbols of the Labour movement (which is a church-like organisation) and connecting them to middle class guilt and craving for working class authenticity.
It's very effective but utterly transparent when you observe it closely.
It's very effective but utterly transparent when you observe it closely.
November 23, 2025 at 8:28 PM
The key to Blue Labour's influence is its understanding the sacred symbols of the Labour movement (which is a church-like organisation) and connecting them to middle class guilt and craving for working class authenticity.
It's very effective but utterly transparent when you observe it closely.
It's very effective but utterly transparent when you observe it closely.
Fascinating piece - contends massively increased cost of infrastructure is down to wages (ie Baumol's cost disease). Second is things like "we don't want to kill workers" or "we won't just trust the engineer" anymore.
Via @crisortunity.bsky.social
open.substack.com/pub/nickmain...
Via @crisortunity.bsky.social
open.substack.com/pub/nickmain...
Hammersmith Bridge
Where did 25,000 vehicles go?
open.substack.com
November 23, 2025 at 7:31 PM
Fascinating piece - contends massively increased cost of infrastructure is down to wages (ie Baumol's cost disease). Second is things like "we don't want to kill workers" or "we won't just trust the engineer" anymore.
Via @crisortunity.bsky.social
open.substack.com/pub/nickmain...
Via @crisortunity.bsky.social
open.substack.com/pub/nickmain...
I have spoken to five people who haven't seen the classic 1980s movie Lost Boys in the past 48 hours.
My world is dying.
(Biographical note: I worked in the fair in Lost Boys for a Summer so I take this personally- the film is essential for my origin story).
My world is dying.
(Biographical note: I worked in the fair in Lost Boys for a Summer so I take this personally- the film is essential for my origin story).
November 23, 2025 at 12:13 PM
I have spoken to five people who haven't seen the classic 1980s movie Lost Boys in the past 48 hours.
My world is dying.
(Biographical note: I worked in the fair in Lost Boys for a Summer so I take this personally- the film is essential for my origin story).
My world is dying.
(Biographical note: I worked in the fair in Lost Boys for a Summer so I take this personally- the film is essential for my origin story).
I don't think I've heard any single Government minister say anything of the nature of this from Brown in '97. (With the obvious exception of Ed Milliband).
If growth is not compatible with quality of life rather than just "abundance" or accumulation for the few then it is a destructive force.
If growth is not compatible with quality of life rather than just "abundance" or accumulation for the few then it is a destructive force.
Ironically, one of the first things that the Major administration did to attempt to restore its credibility after Black Wednesday was to implement the fuel price duty escalator both to raise revenue and to reduce emissions. In 1997 Brown said. All now seemingly forgotten.
November 23, 2025 at 8:11 AM
I don't think I've heard any single Government minister say anything of the nature of this from Brown in '97. (With the obvious exception of Ed Milliband).
If growth is not compatible with quality of life rather than just "abundance" or accumulation for the few then it is a destructive force.
If growth is not compatible with quality of life rather than just "abundance" or accumulation for the few then it is a destructive force.
Those who are pursuing increasingly racialised politics lecture the rest of us about how we are out of touch.
All the time, it is they who have fundamentally misread the public.
Yes, people want managed migration. No, they do not want the country torn apart by aggressive nationalism.
All the time, it is they who have fundamentally misread the public.
Yes, people want managed migration. No, they do not want the country torn apart by aggressive nationalism.
Why do people think England flags have been raised on lampposts?
White adults
National pride: 26%
Anti-migrant/minority sentiment: 49%
Both: 19%
Ethnic minority adults
National pride: 15%
Anti-migrant/minority sentiment: 55%
Both: 20%
yougov.co.uk/society/arti...
White adults
National pride: 26%
Anti-migrant/minority sentiment: 49%
Both: 19%
Ethnic minority adults
National pride: 15%
Anti-migrant/minority sentiment: 55%
Both: 20%
yougov.co.uk/society/arti...
November 23, 2025 at 7:56 AM
Those who are pursuing increasingly racialised politics lecture the rest of us about how we are out of touch.
All the time, it is they who have fundamentally misread the public.
Yes, people want managed migration. No, they do not want the country torn apart by aggressive nationalism.
All the time, it is they who have fundamentally misread the public.
Yes, people want managed migration. No, they do not want the country torn apart by aggressive nationalism.
"Needs additional work".
November 22, 2025 at 2:12 PM
"Needs additional work".
Intriguing interview with Danny Kruger where he sees his opponents as naive and dangerous radicals wanting to see "socialist heaven" on earth.
Yet his traditionalism is the far more radical and idealistic vision with potential for enormous harm.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Yet his traditionalism is the far more radical and idealistic vision with potential for enormous harm.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
‘America is British’. Heaven is ‘a socialist state’. David Attenborough is ‘anti-human’ – the startling theories of Reform MP Danny Kruger
He was a Conservative party big-hitter who wrote speeches for David Cameron and worked with Boris Johnson before he suddenly jumped ship. He talks family, flags and why Nigel Farage is ‘top dog’
www.theguardian.com
November 22, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Intriguing interview with Danny Kruger where he sees his opponents as naive and dangerous radicals wanting to see "socialist heaven" on earth.
Yet his traditionalism is the far more radical and idealistic vision with potential for enormous harm.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Yet his traditionalism is the far more radical and idealistic vision with potential for enormous harm.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...