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Cyrus Samii

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H-index: 28
Political science 26%
Mathematics 24%
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Reposted by Cyrus Samii, Tore Ellingsen, Philipp Maier

afinetheorem.bsky.social
What a great day: legends of innovation economics Mokyr, Aghion and Howitt win the Nobel. Joel was a PhD advisor of mine, so need a full article! Included: good & bad explanations of the Indus Rev, Aghion's charisma, influence of Jon Hughes, French fashion houses: kevinbryanecon.com/mokyraghionh...
A Nobel for Innovation: Mokyr, Aghion, and Howitt
kevinbryanecon.com
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by Cyrus Samii

cdsamii.bsky.social
Congrats to UZH.
One can read in terms of Hirschman’s Exit/Voice/Loyalty framework: the pull of sentimentality toward MIT is weak when there is abundant work to be done on global poverty and the broader home
environment is so bleak.
florianscheuer.bsky.social
Florian Scheuer @florianscheuer.bsky.social · 5d
I am delighted to share that Nobel laureates Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee will join our Department of Economics @econ.uzh.ch at the University of Zurich on July 1, 2026, as Lemann Foundation Professors of Economics.

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Reposted by Cyrus Samii, Dani Rodrik, Stephen M. Walt , and 51 more

florianscheuer.bsky.social
I am delighted to share that Nobel laureates Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee will join our Department of Economics @econ.uzh.ch at the University of Zurich on July 1, 2026, as Lemann Foundation Professors of Economics.

🧵 1/7
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by Cyrus Samii

cdsamii.bsky.social
👀 (given the remarkable robustness of BART as a static prediction method)
statme-bot.bsky.social
arXiv stat.ME Methodology @statme-bot.bsky.social · 15d
Christoph Breunig, Ruixuan Liu, Zhengfei Yu: Robust Semiparametric Inference for Bayesian Additive Regression Trees https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.24634 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.24634 https://arxiv.org/html/2509.24634
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Reposted by Cyrus Samii

statme-bot.bsky.social
Christoph Breunig, Ruixuan Liu, Zhengfei Yu: Robust Semiparametric Inference for Bayesian Additive Regression Trees https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.24634 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.24634 https://arxiv.org/html/2509.24634
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by Cyrus Samii

cdsamii.bsky.social
Very well said. Re (2), a version of this is in the Korn and Graubard "Analysis of Health Surveys" textbook that explains how, under misspecification (and all models are somewhat misspecified), the weighted (population) fit is what we want rather than the sample fit.
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Reposted by Cyrus Samii, David Darmofal

polanalysis.bsky.social
Currently in FirstView: “Generalizing Trimming Bounds for Endogeneously Missing Outcome Data Using Random Forests." @cdsamii.bsky.social, Ye Wang, @jlzhou.bsky.social‬ present a partial identification approach that avoids strong assumptions. This is illustrated using a simulation and replication.
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by Cyrus Samii

cdsamii.bsky.social
Agreed — nice round up of very well informed perspectives. I found Raleigh’s analysis especially convincing but all perspectives were thought provoking.
jonmladd.bsky.social
Jonathan Ladd @jonmladd.bsky.social · Sep 12
Credit where credit is due. This Politico symposium on political violence is good.
10 Political Violence Experts on What Comes Next for America
Can America escape the spiral of political violence after Charlie Kirk’s killing?
www.politico.com
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Reposted by Cyrus Samii

jonmladd.bsky.social
Credit where credit is due. This Politico symposium on political violence is good.
10 Political Violence Experts on What Comes Next for America
Can America escape the spiral of political violence after Charlie Kirk’s killing?
www.politico.com
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Reposted by Cyrus Samii, Caroline Krafft

olihanney.bsky.social
Back to teaching or studying economics at university this September?

@voxdev.bsky.social has tons of useful resources for university economics courses - I have included some examples in this thread. 1/n
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by Cyrus Samii

cdsamii.bsky.social
Skepticism toward vax and modern medicine is fairly widespread publicly as I’ve seen, and is tied up with antipathy toward “experts” (“do your own research” a la Aaron Rodgers), which universities embody. There is the woke issue sure, but there is also antipathy toward expertise to contend with.
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by Cyrus Samii

cdsamii.bsky.social
Let’s take the area where there has been the most heat: vaccinations. The MRNA vax researcher doesn’t need to change what they do. It’s a problem of educating the public that this is useful stuff. The question is how to do that effectively.
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by Cyrus Samii

cdsamii.bsky.social
Seems that a field that has taken an especially large hit in the current context is biomedical sciences, and this because, it seems, MAGA rejected the expert guidance on COVID. These rules leave many unanswered questions for that field, no?
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Reposted by Cyrus Samii, Stephen P. Jenkins, Steven N. Durlauf , and 25 more

pengzell.bsky.social
WE ARE HIRING! 2 Lecturers in Quantitative Social Science. Want a friendly interdisciplinary department in one of the world's most vibrant cities? This just might be for you.

Apply by: 10 Oct

www.ucl.ac.uk/work-at-ucl/...
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by Cyrus Samii

cdsamii.bsky.social
I agree with comments here emphasizing Trump’s vengeance on the “medical establishment” after feeling that it conspired during COVID to unseat him. Would be nice if nurses and doctors generated a groundswell of alarm in their personal social networks about the dangers.
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Reposted by Cyrus Samii

klauspforr.bsky.social
Interesting paper on design-based uncertainty for quasi-experiments
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Design-Based Uncertainty for Quasi-Experiments
Design-based frameworks of uncertainty are frequently used in settings where the treatment is (conditionally) randomly assigned. This article develops a design-based framework suitable for analyzin...
www.tandfonline.com
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by Cyrus Samii

cdsamii.bsky.social
Montiel Olea has a few really nice papers on design from a decision theoretic perspective.
1

by Cyrus Samii

cdsamii.bsky.social
Anna Wilke and I have a paper (soon on Arxiv) that I can send on design diversification from minmax regret perspective. We were inspired by Manski and papers on experimental design like Banerjee et al. and Azevedo et al.

www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1...
University of Chicago Press Journals: Cookie absent
www.journals.uchicago.edu
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by Cyrus Samii

cdsamii.bsky.social
Isn't this "generalization"?
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by Cyrus Samii

cdsamii.bsky.social
(The tortured fit of a global polynomial)
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by Cyrus Samii

cdsamii.bsky.social
For your weekend read I highly recommend this article on the Tampa Bay Rays and the thankless pursuit of excellence:

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/06/m...
Is He Baseball’s Most Brilliant Owner, or a Failure?
www.nytimes.com
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by Cyrus Samii

cdsamii.bsky.social
👀
paperposterbot.bsky.social
ArXiv Paperboy (Stat.ME+Econ.EM) @paperposterbot.bsky.social · Aug 15
link 📈🤖
A General Design-Based Framework and Estimator for Randomized Experiments (Harshaw, S\"avje, Wang) We describe a design-based framework for drawing causal inference in general randomized experiments. Causal effects are defined as linear functionals evaluated at unit-level potential outcom
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Reposted by Cyrus Samii

paperposterbot.bsky.social
link 📈🤖
A General Design-Based Framework and Estimator for Randomized Experiments (Harshaw, S\"avje, Wang) We describe a design-based framework for drawing causal inference in general randomized experiments. Causal effects are defined as linear functionals evaluated at unit-level potential outcom

by Cyrus Samii

cdsamii.bsky.social
*cited (not cute)
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by Cyrus Samii

cdsamii.bsky.social
We had a wee contribution on this for randomized experiments (cute by Abadie et al.). The idea extends by analogy to observational studies: cyrussamii.com/wp-content/u...
cyrussamii.com
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by Cyrus Samii

cdsamii.bsky.social
One observes only a sample of the potential outcomes. Sampling error based standard errors provide for conservative inference for such uncertainty. Surprisingly, this was not widely known until fairly recently. (Cf the Abadie et al paper and refs therein.)
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Reposted by Cyrus Samii

nber.org
Using new tools in legal language processing to show workers value the legal rights provided by collective bargaining agreements, from Benjamin W. Arold, Elliott Ash, W. Bentley MacLeod, and Suresh Naidu https://www.nber.org/papers/w33605
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Reposted by Cyrus Samii

paperposterbot.bsky.social
link 📈🤖
Finite Population Identification and Design-Based Sensitivity Analysis (Kline, Masten) We develop an approach to sensitivity analysis that uses design distributions to calibrate sensitivity parameters in a finite population model. We use this approach to (1) give a new formal analysis of
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Reposted by Cyrus Samii

miguelhernan.org
If you're wondering about differences between publicly-funded research in non-profit universities and
privately-funded research in for-profit companies, watch this:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ar0z...

The topic is the "de-extinction of the dire wolf", but the message applies beyond it. (Think "AI".)
They Didn't Make Dire Wolves, They Made Something…Else
YouTube video by hankschannel
www.youtube.com
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Reposted by Cyrus Samii

gregoryfaletto.com
It's not okay, and this is basically the reason. If you want to be able to peek at the results, then increase the sample size, and repeat, you have to use anytime-valid inference techniques e.g. arxiv.org/abs/2210.01948
Game-theoretic statistics and safe anytime-valid inference
Safe anytime-valid inference (SAVI) provides measures of statistical evidence and certainty -- e-processes for testing and confidence sequences for estimation -- that remain valid at all stopping time...
arxiv.org
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