Philipp Maier
@pmaier1971.bsky.social
Economic data releases and news, automated with R.
Data from http://fred.stlouisfed.org.
Code/details: http://whyitmatters.netlify.app
All views and errors are mine.
Economics
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Engineering
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At the end of this week, the GDPNow forecast from the Altanta Fed for Q4 2025 stands at at 4.24%. GDPNow is a nowcasting model for GDP growth projecting 13 GDP subcomponents with monthly source data, a factor model and a BVAR. #econsky
The average rate on a U.S. 30-Year Fixed Rate Conforming #mortgage on 12 February was at 6.033%. Relative to the prior week, the rate has fallen by about -0.08 p.p. #mortgagerates #econsky
According to the Federal Reserve Cleveland, inflation expectations over a 1-year horizon are 2.59% y/y, above the Fed's target of 2%. Looking out further, longer-term expectations move closer to 2%. #econsky
5Y Breakeven Inflation Rate at 2.45%, down from 2.5% last week; 10Y Breakeven Inflation at 2.29%. Breakeven inflation uses the difference between Constant Maturity and Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Treasuries to calculate market expectations #inflation #econsky.
10Y #Treasury is at 4.09%, down from 4.18% last week. How are shorter-term interest rates contributing to the change in the yield curve? #interest #econsky https://tinyurl.com/m7pdyyyf
Rents in the US have increased by 2.8% y/y in Jan 2026, down -0.08 p.p. from last month. #econsky
How broad based is the increase in #Inflation? Comparing all major CPI components to pre-pandemic levels #econsky
Core CPI inflation inflation for Jan 2026 came in at 2.36% y/y, down -0.26 p.p. from last month. CPI ex. energy and food at 2.48%. #inflation #econsky
On average, prices for alcoholic #beverages (away from home) have increased 3.55% y/y, up 0.11 p.p. from last month. Posting for a friend ;-) #econsky
#CPIs for medial goods, recreation, education: Showing details behind the topline number #Inflation #econsky
#CPIs for food, housing, apparel: Details behind the topline number #Inflation #econsky
Comparing The Economic Recovery Since the Outset of the Pandemic Across Major Industrialized Countries #econsky
The U.S. Dollars to U.K. Pound Sterling Spot Exchange Rate stood at 1.3606 USD/GBP last week (06 February). Relative to a month ago, this is 1.4% higher. Relative to a year ago, the exchange rate has risen by 9.8% #exchangerate #gbp #usd #econsky
Last week (06 February) the U.S. Dollars to Euro Exchange Rate was 1.1812 USD/EUR. Relative to a month ago, this is an increase of approx. 1.5%. Relative to a year ago, the exchange rate is about 14.4% higher. #exchangerate #eur #usd #econsky
Average US 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage last week at 6.09%, down -0.02 p.p. from prior week. 5/1 ARM at 6.1% #mortgage #househunters #econsky
Existing #homeSales in Jan 2026 at 3910K units, down -8.4% q/q #econsky
Inventory of Existing Family Homes rose to 1.11 million units in Jan 2026. Given the current sales pace, it would take 3.8 months to sell this existing housing inventory, up from 3.3 #econsky
The IMF's Global Food Price index has fallen by -3.2% in Jan 2026, relative to last year #foodprices #commodities #econsky
Global prices for Natural Gas for the month of Jan 2026 averaged $11.99 per Million Metric British Thermal Units. Relative to the prior month, that's up $2.53 or 26.7% #naturalgas #commodities #econsky
Global Copper prices for the month of Jan 2026 averaged $12986.61 per metric ton. Relative to the prior month, that's up $1195.64 or 10.1% #commodities #copper #econsky
Update on prices for Liquified Natural Gas (LNG): The IMF's index for LNG prices in Asia in Jan 2026 came in at 10.44, which is an incease of 5.3%, relative to the prior month #energy #commodities #econsky
The IMF's Global Energy Price index for the month of Jan 2026 came in at 153.66, which is an incease of 4.28%, relative to the prior month #energy #commodities #econsky
Emerging Market Update: Longer-term view of currency movements since the start of the post-pandemic monetary tightening cycle. All currencies indexed to 100 on March 16 (date of the first Fed rate hike); latest data point is 06 Feb #fx #emergingmarkets #econsky
