Iikka Korhonen
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iikkakorhonen.bsky.social
Iikka Korhonen
@iikkakorhonen.bsky.social

Head of BOFIT (Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies), not representing the official views of my employer, RTs not endorsements

https://t.co/E0YqzEKBp7

Economics 82%
Political science 9%

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

Helsinki

”..annual deficit would rise from $1.9tn this year to $3.1tn by 2036, pushing federal debt levels beyond their second world war record as soon as 2030.”
”not sustainable”🇺🇸

giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Trump’s policies will add $1.4tn to US deficit over next decade, watchdog says
Trump’s policies will add $1.4tn to US deficit over next decade, watchdog says
Congressional Budget Office warns Washington’s public finances are ‘not sustainable’
giftarticle.ft.com

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

"As part of a program authorizing up to eleven ASCs under the Presidential Memorandum “Construction of #Arctic Security Cutters,” the first two vessels will be built in #Finland at Davie Defense’s sister company, Helsinki Shipyard."
www.navaltoday.com/2026/02/11/u...
US Coast Guard orders five Arctic security cutters from Davie Defense
Davie Defense has been awarded a contract from the United States Coast Guard (USCG) to build five Arctic security cutters (ASCs), a new class of polar icebreaker critical to increasing the US presence...
www.navaltoday.com

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

The bulk of additional financial and humanitarian aid is now provided through EU institutions and their mechanisms. The share of EU-level financial and humanitarian aid allocations grew from around 50 percent in 2022 to almost 90 percent in 2025 👇

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

🇺🇦 #UkraineSupportTracker: Europe steps up: In 2025, European military aid rose +67% & financial/humanitarian aid +59% vs. 2022–24 averages - compensating for the US withdrawal.
Military aid increasingly borne by small no of countries 👉 kielinstitut.de/publications...
#MSC2026

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

49 years ago
"Mongoloid" is the debut single by American new wave band Devo, released February 1977 with "Jocko Homo" as the B-side.

"Mongoloid" was later re-recorded by Devo and appeared on the album Q: Are We Not Men? A: We are Devo!

#devo #newwave #history #punkrockhistory

Yes, you are right, almost 4%. I was talking about the federal government budget. Should’ve been more precise.

”..number of Russian soldiers killed in action jumped to as high as 35,000 in December”

”Russia sustained around 9,000 more battlefield losses in Ukraine than it was able to replace last month”
🇺🇦🇷🇺
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Russian War Losses Now Exceed Recruitment, Western Officials Say
Russia sustained around 9,000 more battlefield losses in Ukraine than it was able to replace last month, according to assessments from Western officials, signaling progress for Ukraine’s ambition to i...
www.bloomberg.com

Even if public debt is ~20%/GDP, with these kinds of yields debt servicing costs will rise substantially in 2026, especially since deficit can easily be 4% of GDP this year, if/when war continues….
The Russian MinFin at the first auction for the day managed to sell 48,461 billion rubles (48 billion 461 million, European decimal comma)of debt from it only fixed coupon issue for today OFZ PD-26250 at a yield of 15,32%. Firmly over 15%.

rusbonds.ru/news/2026021...
Средневзвешенная доходность ОФЗ 26250 на аукционе – 15,32%, размещены бумаги на 48,46 млрд руб.
Последние новости рынка облигаций. Главные новости облигаций
rusbonds.ru

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

The Russian MinFin at the first auction for the day managed to sell 48,461 billion rubles (48 billion 461 million, European decimal comma)of debt from it only fixed coupon issue for today OFZ PD-26250 at a yield of 15,32%. Firmly over 15%.

rusbonds.ru/news/2026021...
Средневзвешенная доходность ОФЗ 26250 на аукционе – 15,32%, размещены бумаги на 48,46 млрд руб.
Последние новости рынка облигаций. Главные новости облигаций
rusbonds.ru
Today’s CBO report says US consumers pay 95% of tariffs. 🤡

@brendanvduke.bsky.social
www.cbo.gov/system/files...

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

My updated list of estimates of the cost of the GOP megabill including its effects on growth including today's CBO estimate.

Contrary to claims the law will produce such stupendous economic growth it will pay for itself, all independent estimates find it will cost trillions.

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

Parliament has approved a €90 billion Ukraine support loan package.

Learn more ↓
Parliament approves €90 billion Ukraine support loan package | News | European Parliament
MEPs voted in favour of three pieces of legislation to make a €90 billion EU loan available for Ukraine as it faces Russia’s continued war of aggression.
www.europarl.europa.eu

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

EU/Australia Trade Talks - Agreement in sight?

Australia's Trade Minister Don Farrell "will spend most of Thursday in negotiations with EU Commissioner for Trade Maroš Šefčovič and EU Commissioner for Agriculture and Food Christophe Hansen".
thewest.com.au/politics/fed...
Farrell flies to Brussels on trade talk mission
Australia believes a trade deal with the European Union is the closest it has been to being finalised as Trade Minister Don Farrell flies to Brussels to hold talks with his counterparts.
thewest.com.au

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

CEPS @ceps.eu · 23h
After 4 years of war, Ukraine's agricultural sector is devastated. Restoring it is crucial for both Ukraine and the EU.

At #CEPSLab2026, we will host a session exploring how Ukraine's agricultural recovery can help us to rethink development finance.

Learn more: ideaslab.ceps.eu/from-mines-t...
Ahead of tomorrow's informal meeting of EU leaders on competitiveness, the ECB has submitted its proposals, which include a common 'safe asset'.

www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/gel...
Vertrauliche „Checkliste“: EZB fordert Eurobonds und Vorsorgedepot für alle
Die Euro-Notenbank drängt vor dem anstehenden EU-Gipfel auf tiefgreifende und konkrete Reformen. Besonders ihre Forderung nach einem europäischen „Safe Asset“ ist politisch sehr umstritten.
www.handelsblatt.com

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

Reports are that Trump is "privately musing about exiting the North American trade pact."

Deep dive by @joshwingrovebbg.bsky.social into what we know about the upcoming USMCA review.
Trump Privately Weighs Quitting USMCA Trade Pact He Negotiated
President Donald Trump is privately musing about exiting the North American trade pact, people familiar with the matter said, injecting further uncertainty about the deal’s future into pivotal renegot...
www.bloomberg.com

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

Correction: My graph in the post above failed to account for the full set of benchmark revisions. Corrected graph is below. (It looks remarkably similar, but it's better to get these things right.)

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

The US continues losing blue-collar jobs—year-on-year job losses have hit 170k as manufacturing, transportation, & mining industries lose jobs at a rapid pace while growth in construction remains low

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

As expected, the annual benchmark revisions sharply lowered estimates of job growth in earlier months. BLS now says we added just 181,000 jobs in 2025, down from the earlier estimate of 584,000. #NumbersDay

First release of Russia's 2025 GDP, growth 1.0%. Which would mean slight acceleration of growth in 4Q2025, as 1-3Q2025 GDP growth was 0.9%. In December there was e.g. a burst of frontloading activity as VAT rate rose to 22% in January. Also 2024 growth revised to 4.9%.
rosstat.gov.ru/storage/medi...
О производстве и использовании валового внутреннего продукта в 2025 году
rosstat.gov.ru

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

Taiwan’s economic affairs ministry to send team to assess US rare earth deposits – Reuters: ‘with a goal to have such minerals refined on the island’
Taiwan to send team to assess US rare earth deposits
Taiwan plans to send officials to assess U.S. rare earths deposits with a goal to have such minerals refined on the island, Economy Minister Kung Ming-hsin said on Wednesday.
www.reuters.com

My colleague Sinikka Parviainen talking about regional military spending at Russia Seminar 2026 of National Defence University
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi
maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu.fi/en/russia-se...

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

Exclusive

Cold shoulder: China, EU in diplomatic stand-off ahead of Munich

Beijing has frozen out the EU’s envoy & snubbed its biz lobby, EU quietly boycotting China’s envoy in return, Wang Yi is Munich-bound with no locked‑in meeting with Kallas
Exclusive | Cold shoulder? China, EU in diplomatic stand-off ahead of Munich showdown
Annual security conference could provide rare venue for high-level EU-China talks as top diplomats Wang Yi and Kaja Kallas attend.
www.scmp.com

Well.. okay then.
Q: Why is Trump interested in spending taxpayer dollars renaming Dulles Airport and Penn Station after himself?

Leavitt: Why not?

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

Q: Why is Trump interested in spending taxpayer dollars renaming Dulles Airport and Penn Station after himself?

Leavitt: Why not?

It’s almost like the people pushing this have not
1) looked at the map
2) looked at the trade and production statistics.

Almost like they are not acting in good faith.

I was in this museum slightly more than a week ago! Great place. (I was a bit surprised how little those parts of Sweden that are not part of it anymore received attention, though. Most of the present-day Finland was Sweden for ~700 years! Same goes for Norway.)
Nunc est bibendum! What may be a ceremonial drinking competition features on this Gotlandic Picture Stone from Tängelgårda 🍻

Six hold drinking horns (one may be dipping a cup in a bucket), and two hold swords. Three wear eastern-style baggy trousers 👖

My 📷 Historiska museet

Helsinki Main Guard Post