Chad P. Bown
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chadpbown.com
Chad P. Bown
@chadpbown.com

Reginald Jones Senior Fellow @PIIE.com
@Trade--Talks.bsky.social Podcast host

Former State Department, White House, WTO, World Bank, Professor

I think about trade and policy. Probably too much

Me: www.chadpbown.com
Pod: www.tradetalkspodcast.com .. more

Chad P. Bown is an American economist. He served as chief economist at the U.S. Department of State in the Biden administration from January 2024 to January 2025.

Source: Wikipedia
Economics 52%
Political science 29%
Pinned
πŸ€“ BUCKET LIST πŸ€“

'HOW TO WIN A TRADE WAR' (my forthcoming book with the amazing @soumayakeynes.ft.com) is part of a New Year's Day sale thingie!

Barnes & Noble Premium & Rewards Members get 25% off pre-orders

Dec 30-Jan 1 only

#BNPreorder Instructions Here: www.barnesandnoble.com/w/how-to-win...

πŸš— DETROIT!!! πŸš—

Super honored to be in the great state of Michigan for the Chicago Fed's 32nd Annual Automotive Insights Symposium, talking USMCA, supply chains, tariffs, and (of course) China with the very great @kdziczek.bsky.social & Sushan Demirjian

πŸ“Ί[VIDEO] www.chicagofed.org/events/2026/...

if they extended this to over-50s i would move to Spain
Spain to ban social media access for under-16s
Move follows Australia’s decision to introduce age-based restrictions over child safety concerns
www.ft.com

Do you take Apple Pay?

Thanks, Wally!!!

Five charts show the impact on the economy after a year of sweeping trade changes by the Trump administration.

Some *top-level* nerdery, from @anaswanson.bsky.social
The Effects of Tariffs, One Year Into Trump’s Trade Experiment
www.nytimes.com

India signed a trade agreement with the European Union just last week. (That deal eventually provides EU companies preferential access to the Indian market.)

The Economics Show with @soumayakeynes.ft.com has an excellent episode explaining the EU-India deal, with @nks.bsky.social & Ajay Srivastava.

Trump says US will reduce his tariffs on India from 50% (25% Russian oil tariff + 25% reciprocal tariff) to 18%.

(NB: 18% is in line with Trump's tariffs on other countries in South Asia)

by Gavin Bade
U.S. Will Cut Tariffs on India to 18% in Trade Deal, Trump Says
President Trump said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to stop buying Russian oil and boost American purchases.
www.wsj.com

β€œthe big TV”

πŸ₯‡πŸ₯‡πŸ₯‡
This was very good! So good we watched it on the big TV in the living room, even if the cool teenager said "this looks really boring".
Huge thanks to @pkrugman.bsky.social for the invite to be on the show β€” really fun conversation on all things trade policy, tariffs, and global weirdness.

Also confirming for family record-keeping purposes: this is indeed my β€œtalking to a Nobel Laureate” face.

Reposted by Chad P. Bown

This was very good! So good we watched it on the big TV in the living room, even if the cool teenager said "this looks really boring".
Huge thanks to @pkrugman.bsky.social for the invite to be on the show β€” really fun conversation on all things trade policy, tariffs, and global weirdness.

Also confirming for family record-keeping purposes: this is indeed my β€œtalking to a Nobel Laureate” face.
Talking with Chad Bown
YouTube video by Paul Krugman
youtu.be
Krugman: "We don’t know what the US scene will look like a month from now, let alone in 2029, but if we have a non- Trump-like administration going forward, will we kind of go back to something like a rules-based system?"

Bown: "I think it makes too much sense not to."

Makes sense to me too.
Huge thanks to @pkrugman.bsky.social for the invite to be on the show β€” really fun conversation on all things trade policy, tariffs, and global weirdness.

Also confirming for family record-keeping purposes: this is indeed my β€œtalking to a Nobel Laureate” face.
Talking with Chad Bown
YouTube video by Paul Krugman
youtu.be
Huge thanks to @pkrugman.bsky.social for the invite to be on the show β€” really fun conversation on all things trade policy, tariffs, and global weirdness.

Also confirming for family record-keeping purposes: this is indeed my β€œtalking to a Nobel Laureate” face.
Talking with Chad Bown
YouTube video by Paul Krugman
youtu.be

Trump has imposed A LOT of tariffs on small / mid-sized countries, stopping their exports to the US. If these countries are no longer allowed to sell to the US market, their companies have to sell somewhere else to achieve scale.

The other major large economy out there is China.

by Morgan Phillips
US allies edge closer to Beijing as critics warn China is gaining leverage over Washington
U.S. allies, including Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney, reopen China trade channels despite critics warning of weakened Western unity. Agricultural exports gain relief.
www.foxnews.com

just received two furry creatures in the mail from my amazing former RA but what do I know about popular culture so when I asked for an explanation of course she said

"Labubu is very popular nowadays, soon to be the number one traded good between US and China so I figured you might be interested."

Amazing.

In 2025, the EU and India each faced a barrage of tariffs from US President Donald Trump. So in 2026, they signed a deal, offering free trade in a lot of products to each other.

by @andybounds.bsky.social and Andres Schipani
EU and India seal trade pact to slash €4bn of tariffs on bloc’s exports
Deal will reduce or phase out levies on cars, alcohol and machinery while protecting some agricultural products
www.ft.com

Trump posts he will increase tariffs on South Korea to 25 per cent in response to Seoul’s slow pace in passing the trade deal it struck with the US last year.

by @aimewilliams.bsky.social
Donald Trump increases tariffs on South Korea to 25%
US president accuses Seoul of β€˜not living up to’ agreement struck with Washington last year
www.ft.com

Fascinating review of the new book about 75 years of Indian development, by @arvind2011.bsky.social & Devesh Kapur

β€œOver time shooting oneself in the limbs will slow you down even if you miss your chest.”

~ @adamposen.bsky.social

with @senojerialc.bsky.social, Myles McCormick and Sam Fleming
www.ft.com/content/e3bd...
Is the US economy as hot as Donald Trump thinks?
Risks from inflation and a precarious AI boom hover over stellar growth figures
www.ft.com

"The whole situation offers a huge opportunity for Beijing.

The Chinese have avoided commenting on the current ructions within the western alliance, following the well-known principle of 'never interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake.'"

by @gideonrachman.bsky.social
Decoupling from Trump’s America
Washington’s allies are looking for a new strategy after a week that has demonstrated what some see as the risks of subordination and coercion
www.ft.com

Trump, Greenland, and the question of what **should be** bought and sold is a very old one, and fraught with difficulty.

@soumayakeynes.ft.com works through the economics of problematic markets...
So you tried to buy a country . . .
Trump’s Greenland experience shows the problem with difficult markets
www.ft.com

And over the next two years, China bought none of the extra $200 billion of US exports in Trump's trade deal.
China bought none of the extra $200 billion of US exports in Trump's trade deal
Two years ago, President Donald Trump signed what he called a "historical trade deal" with China that committed China to purchase $200 billion of additional US exports before December 31, 2021. Today ...
www.piie.com

Seven weeks later, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic.

"China will spend an additional $200 billion over two years on American services, agriculture, and energy, and manufactured goods. So we’ll be taking in an excess of $200 billion; could be closer to $300 billion when it finishes."

President Donald J. Trump
21 January 2020
Davos, Switzerland

Reposted by Jay Shambaugh

Companies now pay more for their parts as other businesses pass on the cost of tariffs β€” which include duties of 50% on steel and aluminum, as well as β€œreciprocal” tariffs of 10 to 50% on almost every trading partner.

Amazing reporting by @aimewilliams.bsky.social et al
www.ft.com/content/33ea...
The reality of trying to make US manufacturing great again
The fortunes of furniture makers in North Carolina and Foshan in China show the impact of Trump’s tariff regime
www.ft.com

In contrast to recent UK and French policies, Germany’s new €3bn consumer subsidies for electric vehicles will be open to all manufacturers. Including Chinese carmakers.

by Sebastien Ash
Germany opens €3bn EV support scheme to Chinese automakers
New subsidy programme that runs till 2029 will support purchase or lease of about 800,000 cars
www.ft.com

Happy Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Day

(photo credit Getty)

Thanks, Duncan!

Reposted by Chad P. Bown

Available to preorder…

amzn.eu/d/2HUJOC5

Reposted by Chad P. Bown

This week I am mostly very pleased that I got to read an advanced copy of @soumayakeynes.ft.com & @chadpbown.com’s excellent book last week.