Nicolai von Ondarza

@nvondarza.bsky.social

15K followers 1K following 3.4K posts

Political scientist with a passion for EU affairs, Geek with a passion for technology. Head of Europe Division at @SWP-Berlin.org. Associate Fellow @chathamhouse.bsky.social Europe Programme. All views are personal. Journey before Destination. .. more

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Political science 80%

Economics 10%

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 28d

Who is really “running” the European Parliament right now?

On the margins of the geopolitical changes, the shifts in the EU are also accelerating. In my newest EU-Analytics, I dug into all final votes from December 2025 – and the shift of power to the centre-right & far right is accelerating:

EU Analytics December 2025 review

The change of guards at the European Parliament is picking up speed

open.substack.com

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 15h

But it is not just Nigel Farage, here from an Irish MEP:

Aodhán Ó Ríordáin MEP @aodhanoriordain.bsky.social · 16h

nitasha tiku @nitasha.bsky.social · 15h

My story on Elon Musk cutting safeguards at xAI is on the front page of today's @washingtonpost.com. I’m also among 100’s of reporters laid off. I absolutely loved my job my brilliant coworkers & the thrill of reporting @ the center of forces upending the world: AI & Silicon Valley’s political power

cover of The Washington Post on Wednesday Feb 4, 2026. Headline on bottom, right: Musk wanted to hook users; his chatbot got more sexual

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 15h

Ok, I did not expect Nigel Farage to push this angle, as he was rather quiet on the whole affair otherwise.

Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 15h

Farage calls for EU to probe Mandelson’s time in Brussels ft.trib.al/eAGo2wa

Farage calls for EU to probe Mandelson’s time in Brussels

Reform UK leader claims former trade commissioner may have misused his position for personal gain

ft.trib.al

Reposted by Stephan Lewandowsky, Edgar Morgenroth, Peter Cook , and 1 more Stephan Lewandowsky, Edgar Morgenroth, Peter Cook, Nicolai von Ondarza

Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 15h

Farage calls for EU to probe Mandelson’s time in Brussels ft.trib.al/eAGo2wa

Farage calls for EU to probe Mandelson’s time in Brussels

Reform UK leader claims former trade commissioner may have misused his position for personal gain

ft.trib.al

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Ursula von der Leyen @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu · 16h

Good news: Europe, Japan, and the US will work with others on collective resilience through a plurilateral trade initiative on critical minerals.

Together, we will build strong and diversified supply chains to secure the materials needed to power our economies.

Reposted by Simon Usherwood, Nicolai von Ondarza

Gerardo Fortuna @gerardofortuna.bsky.social · 18h

Greenland effect on Eurobarometer? Asked if they would feel more worried if their country were not an EU member, Danes tops the list (76%). Views of the US are bleak too: 91% of Danish respondents say things are going wrong there, versus just 4% who think they’re going right

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 18h

Indeed, to me it reads like basically a UK clause. Which is fair, given the UK is one of the top European supporter of Ukraine, and it would have been an unnecessary friction to not at least offer it a way in here.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 18h

It would at least address the argument of then also the UK tax payer covering part of the costs. On balance, it looks sensible to me, if (unfortunately still an if) that fair and reasonable contribution is indeed fair and reasonable.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 18h

Was travelling all day, and it looks like another day full of revolts in UK politics, where Starmer has backed down vis-a-vis parliament - and seems further weakened.

Andrew Sparrow @andrewsparrowgdn.bsky.social · 18h

Starmer backs down, and accepts parliament's ISC will play role in pre-release Mandelson files vetting - www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 18h

My understanding is that this is basically an offer to the UK - your defence industry can benefit if you chip into the borrowing costs of the loan.

A difficult but fair offer that opens another dimension in EU-UK negotiations.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 18h

There is now, however, a second derogation for countries with an EU security and defence partnership (which the UK), militarily support Ukraine (as the UK does) and that participate in the funding of the loan:

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 18h

However, the new agreement includes two derogations - first, for countries with an agreement to participate in SAFE, but here the EU-UK negotiations famously failed. This would exclude the UK, but the argument was that this is ofc EU tax payers money spent on EU defence industry.

Reposted by Simon Usherwood

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 18h

EU member states have found the agreement on the Ukraine loan facility, of which €60bn will be earmarked for defence.

Outside of important support for Ukraine, this will also have an EU-UK dimension, as this money should be spent on weapons from the EU, EEA or Ukraine.

EU Council @consilium.europa.eu · 19h

The EU continues to act decisively in support of Ukraine.

The Council agreed its position on the legal framework to provide €90 billion in financial support to Ukraine.

The loan aims to support Ukraine's general budget as well as its defence needs.

More: www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/pre...

Illustration of a hand holding a yellow sunflower with a blue centre. Blue and yellow blocks of colour behind and in front of the hand evoke the Ukrainian flag.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Andrew Sparrow @andrewsparrowgdn.bsky.social · 18h

Starmer backs down, and accepts parliament's ISC will play role in pre-release Mandelson files vetting - www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...

Reposted by Steve Peers, Nicolai von Ondarza

EU Council @consilium.europa.eu · 19h

Reposted by Kevin O’Rourke, Nicolai von Ondarza

Steve Peers @stevepeers.bsky.social · 19h

The suggestion is that the EU trade preferences for the US can be suspended in the event of US territorial threats to EU Member States

Excerpt from the press release. The European Parliament will condition the trade preferences on respect for territorial integrity.

Reposted by Steve Peers, Nicolai von Ondarza

Jorge Liboreiro @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social · 20h

EU ambassadors have reached a deal on the legal texts to provide Ukraine with a €90 billion loan funded by joint debt. €30 billion will be allocated for financial support, and €60 billion for military aid.

Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic will be exempt from the loan.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 23h

Just 393.3 billion rubles in oil and gas revenue for Russia's budget in January. That is the lowest figure since the 2020 Covid oil price crash - in nominal terms, not considering inflation etc.

Reposted by Scott Gehlbach, Nicolai von Ondarza

Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 23h

Russian oil and gas revenue was just 2.0% of GDP in January. If I'm not mistaken, that is a record low for the whole Putin era (since 2000). Here is the data since 2011.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Jim Pickard @pickardje.bsky.social · 1d

Poland will launch an investigation into possible links between the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and Russian intelligence, as well as any impact on Poland, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Tuesday.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 1d

The UK deal with the US on pharma pricing will cost 1/10 of the projected benefits of the - as yet unsigned - EU 'reset' over the next three years, Vallance confirms.

www.theguardian.com/society/2026...

Cost of UK’s drug price with US will come out of NHS budget

Department of health, not Treasury, will foot the bill – with costs forecast to reach £9bn

www.theguardian.com

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

Splits at the national level often also lead to split offs at the EU level - here with Noe former League MEP being thrown out of the self styled 'Patriots for Europe'.

POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 1d

Italian MEP Roberto Vannacci today formally broke with Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini’s far-right League party, capping weeks of internal turmoil and exposing a widening rift on Italy’s right.

Italy’s far-right League party splits as Salvini’s deputy quits

Roberto Vannacci has launched a new far-right party that’s “not moderate.”

www.politico.eu

Reposted by Laia Balcells, Nicolai von Ondarza

POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 1d

Italy’s far-right League party splits as Salvini’s deputy quits

Roberto Vannacci has launched a new far-right party that’s “not moderate.”

www.politico.eu

Reposted by Ben H. Ansell, Richard S.J. Tol, Peter Holmes , and 1 more Ben H. Ansell, Richard S.J. Tol, Peter Holmes, Nicolai von Ondarza

David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 2d

Hadn't previously thought this, but if this Labour government wants to show any understanding of the situation then McSweeney's position is untenable. Now. Not after May.

The change needed is in attitudes more than delivery.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 2d

Brexit, in my view, remains a lose-lose exercise, where the best both sides can do is damage limitation and rework the relationship.

Not sure it is wise politically for Labour to try to own it by claiming they are doing a "proper Brexit".

Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 2d

This is what a proper Brexit looks like ft.trib.al/uGKslyq

This is what a proper Brexit looks like

Prosperity and security will be driven by removing unnecessary barriers that hold businesses back

ft.trib.al

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 2d

This is what a proper Brexit looks like ft.trib.al/uGKslyq

This is what a proper Brexit looks like

Prosperity and security will be driven by removing unnecessary barriers that hold businesses back

ft.trib.al

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 2d

For those not remembering, the decision to set up the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism (EFSM, precursor to the ESM) needed to be decided on Sunday late into early Monday morning, before the markets would open. Prior knowledge would have been extremely valuable.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 2d

EU angle is starting to come in. This is Mandelson informing Epstein about the €500bn rescue fund negotiated for Greece in May 2010. If I understand the timing correctly, this is while the emergency EU Council was still going on.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Simon Usherwood @simonusherwood.bsky.social · 2d

The focus on implementation isn't super-exciting, but it will be the bedrock of doing any of the new stuff, plus it's also what produces the (small) benefits that politicians keep talking about

Kirsten Ostermann @kirstenostermann.bsky.social · 2d

Joint Statement by Maroš Šefčovič 🇪🇺 and Nick Thomas-Symonds 🇬🇧 after todays meetings of the
Withdrawal Agreement Joint Committee and the Trade and Cooperation Agreement
(TCA) Partnership Council in London.

commission.europa.eu/publications...

Joint Statement by European Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič and Minister for the Cabinet Office Nick Thomas-Symonds

commission.europa.eu

Reposted by Steve Peers, Holger Hestermeyer, Simon Usherwood , and 1 more Steve Peers, Holger Hestermeyer, Simon Usherwood, Nicolai von Ondarza

Kirsten Ostermann @kirstenostermann.bsky.social · 2d

Joint Statement by European Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič and Minister for the Cabinet Office Nick Thomas-Symonds

commission.europa.eu

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