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Adam Bonica

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by Adam Bonica

adambonica.bsky.social
Even if it's not illegal, it's still corrupt. The prevalence of legalized corruption is the real problem here.
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by Adam Bonica

adambonica.bsky.social
Tom Homan took a $50k bribe. Trump killed the investigation. Vance shrugged it off as business as usual.

Polls show corruption is THE issue voters care about. The electoral opportunity for Dems to become the anti-corruption party is massive. But first, they must clean their own house to gain trust.
The Democrats' Path Forward: Become the Anti-Corruption Party
But to reform the system they first need to reform the Democratic Party.
data4democracy.substack.com
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Reposted by Adam Bonica, Joanna Bryson, Daniel Ziblatt , and 13 more

jakemgrumbach.bsky.social
“Win every election” is not a viable strategy for preventing authoritarianism
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Reposted by Adam Bonica, Anna O. Law, Will Jennings , and 5 more

debpearlstein.bsky.social
Of all the news in this NYT survey of sitting federal judges - incl 47 of them think the SCt is mishandling its emergency docket - maybe the biggest is that 65 sitting fed judges (37D, 28R), folks circumspect for a living, responded to a NYT survey. Stunning. And a sign that something is very wrong.
Federal Judges, Warning of ‘Judicial Crisis,’ Fault Supreme Court’s Emergency Orders
www.nytimes.com
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by Adam Bonica

adambonica.bsky.social
Such a truthful, heartfelt, and courageous statement from @ezralevin.bsky.social.
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by Adam Bonica — Reposted by Linda R. Tropp

adambonica.bsky.social
“There is nothing an authoritarian fears more than peaceful, organized people power. Our organizing, rooted in our First Amendment constitutional rights, threatens this regime’s grip on power…Our answer is courage, solidarity, and nonviolent resistance. That’s our strength—and that’s how we’ll win.”
Trump & Miller are smearing Indivisible to silence dissent. It won’t work.
A quick response to some batshit reporting on America's authoritarian regime
open.substack.com
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by Adam Bonica

adambonica.bsky.social
This is why Dems’ legalistic framing—like at Bondi’s hearings—can feel so inadequate. “Show me the statute” is a trap when SCOTUS can rewrite law. More effective opposition comes through the language of morality and documented harm—not legal claims that can be swept away with a 6-3 vote.
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by Adam Bonica — Reposted by Adam Bonica, Brendan Nyhan, Richard Price , and 2 more

adambonica.bsky.social
As the Supreme Court term begins, keep this framework in mind: Autocratic Legalism.

Instead of “rule of law” (law constrains the power), we get “rule by law” (law as a weapon for power).

Authoritarians usually have to install allies. Trump started his second term with that step already complete.
The only effective opposition is through the language of morality and documented harm—not legal technicalities that can be swept away with a 6–3 vote.” The text is centered on a neutral background, with “morality” and “documented harm” slightly emphasized to underscore the moral and empirical contrast with “legal technicalities.”
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Reposted by Adam Bonica, John F. McCarthy, John Collins , and 6 more

atrupar.com
Bondi to Blumenthal: "You lied. How dare you? I'm a career prosecutor. Don't you ever challenge my integrity. Do not question my ability to be fair and impartial."
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by Adam Bonica

adambonica.bsky.social
During a shutdown, the federal government can deploy troops to invade US cities but can’t send WIC funds to states to feed infants and children. Speaks volumes about how the rules around shutdowns systematically serve GOP priorities while harming everyone else.
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Reposted by Adam Bonica

jakemgrumbach.bsky.social
Student protests are basically a necessary condition for any democracy movement

open.substack.com/pub/data4dem...
Student-Led Pro-Democracy Protests and Their Impact Worldwide (1955-2025) Outcome • Successful Transition • Long Term Impact| • Partial Gains| • No Immediate Gains Hungary Uprising' ° 1960 1970 Poland Protests' ® 'France May '68 ° South Korea April Revolution Mexico Movement, a, Yugoslavia Protests Greece Polytechnic, o 1980 Poland Solidarity, O " 'South Africa Soweto Philippines People Power,® Brazil Diretas Já South Korea June Movement Burma 8/8/88 China Tiananmen 1990 Vepal Jana Andolan| Indonesia Reformasi, o 2000 zechoslovakia Velvet- & ,East Germany Participation Taiwan Wild Lily Serbia Otpor, & ran University Protests o Ukraine Orange Revolution Venezuela Movement, o 2010 long Kong Umbrella Tunisia Participation gypt Tahrir, & Chile Winter urkey Gezi Park, g, Ukraine Euremaidan •,Ethiopia Protests 2020 Myanmar Protests' 8, Iran Life Freedom Bangladesh July Revolution' & Serbia Algeria Hirak' 8 Thailand Students Note: This timeline illustrates major student-led protests from 1955 to 2025, highlighting their outcomes in terms of political and social change. Outcomes are categorized as 'Successful Transition' (leading directly to significant reforms or government changes), 'Long Term Impact' (initially limited but influential over time), 'Partial Gains' (achieving some concessions or moderate changes), and 'No Immediate Gains' (little to no short-term change despite protest efforts).
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Reposted by Adam Bonica, Adrian Daub, Nathan P. Kalmoe , and 1 more

jakemgrumbach.bsky.social
Pretty incredible own goal by liberal institutions and many Democratic electeds to crush the exact type of protests in 2024 that would’ve been the most effective way to slow or stop ICE incursions into American cities in 2025
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Reposted by Adam Bonica

protectdemocracy.org
The Trump administration's latest attack on universities involves coercing them into signing ideological pledges in exchange for funding preference. Earlier we wrote about why there's no negotiating with an annihilation attempt, universities standing firm against attacks is the only option.
Universities have no choice
There is no negotiating with an annihilation attempt
www.ifyoucankeepit.org
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Reposted by Adam Bonica, Mark Rice

donmoyn.bsky.social
The shutdown as ideological targeting.
If agencies fire non-essential employees as Vought wants, the losses fall more on liberal agencies, even though such agencies already saw more cuts during previous Trump layoffs.
H/T @adambonica.bsky.social
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/shutdown-h...
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Reposted by Adam Bonica

perrybaconjr.bsky.social
"I don’t think the Democratic Party is at its best when it tries to compete with the Republican Party for the bottom of the barrel. I have yet to talk to a black person who has said to me, “You know what I want the Democratic Party to do—abandon issues of race,” says @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social.
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Reposted by Adam Bonica

jenvictor.bsky.social
Shot/chaser

@adambonica.bsky.social, yesterday, "shutdowns favor GOP-leaning agencies and harm liberal ones." substack.com/home/post/p-...

Trump, today, "The shutdown gives me the opportunity to inflict devastating harm on my political adversaries' government-aligned interests [paraphrased]."
a graph showing liberal leaning agencies have more furloughed employees than conservative leaning ones. a Truth Social Post from the president: "I have a meeting today with russ Vought, he of Project 2025 fame, to determine which of the many Democrat Agencies, most of which are a political SCAM, he commends to be cut, and whether or not those cuts will be temporary or permanent. I can't believe the Radical Left Democrats gave me this unprecedented opportunity. They are not stupid people, so maybe this is their way to wanting to, quietly and quickly, make america great again. President DJT"
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Reposted by Adam Bonica, Nathan P. Kalmoe

jakemgrumbach.bsky.social
Updated paper with @adambonica.bsky.social w/ many more measures of candidate ideology

Mass politics is volatile & uncertain these days, and you should take very confident pundit/consultant claims about What Candidates Should Do™ with a big grain of salt

www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/mjih7...
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by Adam Bonica

adambonica.bsky.social
It’s not just other countries that don’t shut down the government over disagreement over the budget, tons of states have rules that prevent shut downs, as well.
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by Adam Bonica — Reposted by Michael Jones‐Correa

adambonica.bsky.social
You know what would be great? If Democrats came out and said that the next time they’re in power, they’ll change the rules and end shutdowns for good. And then actually did it.

Beyond being dumb and unnecessary, it’s flat-out disrespectful to keep treating federal employees like bargaining chips.
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by Cas Mudde — Reposted by Adam Bonica, Jan W. Mueller

casmudde.bsky.social
"Until we confront the institutional rules themselves—not just the politicians wielding them—we’ll remain trapped in this cycle of manufactured crisis."

@adambonica.bsky.social provides a great public service with his exceptionally insightful data-driven analyses of U.S. politics.
When the Rules Incentivize Chaos: America's Shutdown Problem Runs Deeper Than Partisan Politics
Data shows how government shutdowns disproportionally affect agencies that align with Democratic priorities while agencies aligned with GOP priorities remain largely untouched.
data4democracy.substack.com
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by Adam Bonica

adambonica.bsky.social
For more on why shutdowns tilt the playing field and the institutional history behind them, read my full piece:
open.substack.com/pub/data4dem...
When the Rules Incentivize Chaos: America's Shutdown Problem Runs Deeper Than Partisan Politics
Data shows how government shutdowns disproportionally affect agencies that align with Democratic priorities while agencies aligned with GOP priorities remain largely untouched.
open.substack.com
1 7 23

by Adam Bonica — Reposted by Anna O. Law, Fabián Muniesa, Brian Keegan

adambonica.bsky.social
Shutdown rules aren’t neutral. They favor agencies aligned with GOP priorities, while those aligned with Democratic priorities bear the brunt of furloughs.

Furlough Rates:
EPA: 89%
Dept. of Education: 86%
Dept. of Labor: ~75%
DHS / ICE / CBP: ~0%

Bad incentives → biased outcomes.
Scatterplot of federal agencies showing furlough rates vs ideological leaning. Liberal agencies (EPA, Dept. of Education) have high furloughs; conservative ones (DOD, DHS) nearly none. Rules structurally protect GOP priorities.
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by Adam Bonica

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by Adam Bonica

adambonica.bsky.social
This is largely a function of institutional asymmetry. When in the minority, GOP bargaining posture often becomes obstructionist with demands towards contraction. These shutdown fights (which aren’t really a thing in other democracies) advantage GOP priorities. It’s not a fair fight.
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by Adam Bonica

adambonica.bsky.social
Contrast this to what the GOP has demanded in the past:

2011-Major deficit reduction, caps on discretionary spending.

2013-Obamacare repeal

2017-new spending caps, additional military spending

2018-Border wall construction funds
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by Adam Bonica

adambonica.bsky.social
It’s worth acknowledging that Democratic leadership isn’t asking for anything new in this budget showdown. They’re simply asking that something not be taken away.

It’s the classic “hey, give me my hat back” negotiating strategy.
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by Adam Bonica — Reposted by John Kenneth White

adambonica.bsky.social
We’d be wise to remember Milley resisted Trump’s push to use the military on Jan 6. His later words that Trump is “fascist to the core” should remind today’s generals where their duty lies when forced to choose between the Constitution and their careers. We won’t forget. And neither will history.
Trump's top general calls former president "fascist" and "dangerous" threat
"He is now the most dangerous person to this country," Mark Milley told journalist Bob Woodward.
www.axios.com
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by Adam Bonica — Reposted by Bryan D. Jones, John Kenneth White

adambonica.bsky.social
Trump and Hegseth’s spectacle with generals echoes classic authoritarian rituals—humiliating officers, loyalty tests, framing citizens the “enemy within.” Elsewhere and at home, generals have resisted by insisting their oath is to the Constitution, not the president. That tradition matters now.
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by Adam Bonica — Reposted by Adam Bonica, Michael D. McDonald

adambonica.bsky.social
A friendly reminder: US billionaires have gained $968 billion in wealth so far this year—that’s 30X the annual cost of ACA subsidies Congress is fighting over in the shutdown talks.

That $968B is enough to send every single US household a $7,300 check.
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by Adam Bonica

adambonica.bsky.social
Poll after poll shows corruption is THE issue voters care about. And Jeffries goes out of his way to praise Adams, whose public corruption charges were dropped after Trump’s DOJ unceremoniously shut the case down?

Democrats have the winning hand right in front of them. Wild that they won’t play it.
statement titled “Leader Jeffries Statement on Mayor Eric L. Adams.” It says Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries thanked Adams for decades of service as an NYPD officer, state senator, Brooklyn Borough President, and New York City’s 110th mayor. The statement highlights achievements under Adams, including reduced violent crime, more affordable housing, and recovery from COVID-19. Jeffries acknowledges ongoing challenges like the high cost of living but says meaningful progress was made. He thanks Adams for his service and says that in the coming days his focus will shift to Republican healthcare and government funding issues, and that he will comment on the remaining mayoral candidates before early voting begins.
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