Jesse “ElectionSky When?” Bacon
@treyf.bsky.social
Sr Digital Organizing Manager at Indivisible these several years, IndivisiUnion forever. Still @Trayf on the x place. “They are a slow swimmer, but he always knows when to breathe.” I can opt you out.
Oh heck yeah
1/2: If Wisconsin's top court replaces the GOP gerrymander in 2026, Dems might flip 2-3 of the 6 GOP seats, & the map would likely split 4-4 on average.
On my map, GOP seats 1 & 6 flip to Harris, 3 stays similar with a weak incumbent, & 8 becomes a reach seat: davesredistricting.org/join/d78e8b9...
On my map, GOP seats 1 & 6 flip to Harris, 3 stays similar with a weak incumbent, & 8 becomes a reach seat: davesredistricting.org/join/d78e8b9...
November 26, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Oh heck yeah
Just one poll but kbe showing a very winnable race!
Emerson finds TN-7 basically ~tied ahead of Tuesday election, with Trump underwater in a district he won by 22.
A winnable race for Dems.
If R’s lose this race their ability to control the House *this year* is a real issue.
Link to donate to Dem Aftyn Behn here: secure.actblue.com/donate/aftyn...
A winnable race for Dems.
If R’s lose this race their ability to control the House *this year* is a real issue.
Link to donate to Dem Aftyn Behn here: secure.actblue.com/donate/aftyn...
November 26, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Just one poll but kbe showing a very winnable race!
How ahead of the elections are we talking?
This is a big deal. Order out about an hour ago.
Any effort at fairness would add at least one Democratic seat.
Any effort at fairness would add at least one Democratic seat.
Alert! Wisconsin Supreme Court appoints panels to hear challenges to state’s congressional map
— The Wisconsin Supreme Court today appointed separate three-judge panels to hear two lawsuits seeking new congressional lines ahead of the 2026 elections. The court’s move will be the first use...
pro.stateaffairs.com
November 25, 2025 at 7:41 PM
How ahead of the elections are we talking?
Wow This American Life needs to do a follow up (that's where i learned) Throw in the orange on the seder plate and you have a whole episode!
The (apparently false) brown M&Ms as signals of carelessness are, like the misinterpretation of Lando's "deal" with Vader and the (not) boiled frogs, probably too useful to stop using despite being false.
nothing is real
November 25, 2025 at 3:50 PM
Wow This American Life needs to do a follow up (that's where i learned) Throw in the orange on the seder plate and you have a whole episode!
I went to this in a suburban mall theater on an intergenerational double date with my parents and the first socialist i ever knew and it was a pretty great time!
Share a '90s movie you think deserves more love.
I’ve literally never heard anyone mention this ever and it’s such a great film full of “guys/gals we love to see”. And Jessica Tandy’s last role!
I’ve literally never heard anyone mention this ever and it’s such a great film full of “guys/gals we love to see”. And Jessica Tandy’s last role!
November 25, 2025 at 2:31 PM
I went to this in a suburban mall theater on an intergenerational double date with my parents and the first socialist i ever knew and it was a pretty great time!
Via @umichvoter.bsky.social on the other site! Really hope this from @mallorymcmorrow.bsky.social catches on
November 25, 2025 at 2:50 AM
Via @umichvoter.bsky.social on the other site! Really hope this from @mallorymcmorrow.bsky.social catches on
Glad that Kamala Harris and I share a love of special elections!
KAMALA IN NASHVILLE: “Why am I here in Tennessee? Because the power is in the south. I know that.”
@kamalaharris.com firing up Dems at an @aftynbehn.bsky.social rally for the TN-7 special election.
@kamalaharris.com firing up Dems at an @aftynbehn.bsky.social rally for the TN-7 special election.
November 20, 2025 at 9:54 PM
Glad that Kamala Harris and I share a love of special elections!
Ezra Furman
Sleater-Kinney
Sheila E
Violent Femmes
Indigo Girls
Sleater-Kinney
Sheila E
Violent Femmes
Indigo Girls
Introduce yourself with the last five concerts you saw
I think it's three Elvis Costello shows (solo, w/ the Imposters, w/guests), one Rickie Lee Jones, one Bob Mould.
I think it's three Elvis Costello shows (solo, w/ the Imposters, w/guests), one Rickie Lee Jones, one Bob Mould.
Introduce yourself with the last five concerts you saw
Green Day
Springsteen
Springsteen
Third Eye Blind
Rolling Stones
Green Day
Springsteen
Springsteen
Third Eye Blind
Rolling Stones
November 19, 2025 at 11:11 PM
Ezra Furman
Sleater-Kinney
Sheila E
Violent Femmes
Indigo Girls
Sleater-Kinney
Sheila E
Violent Femmes
Indigo Girls
Scam texters will always lose . See Kansas abortion amendment
There is a whole lot of dark money bound and determined to silence Missouri voices. Screw that. 
November 19, 2025 at 8:08 PM
Scam texters will always lose . See Kansas abortion amendment
As the article points out this is how big the Dem lead was in November 2017! And he recovered a little from that in 2018
New Marist generic ballot poll
I remember doubt when State Navigate and YouGov dropped their Virginia polls showing Dems up big
No New Jersey polls were even close to actual outcome
Probably entering a volatile political environment so good to keep open mind
www.npr.org/2025/11/19/n...
I remember doubt when State Navigate and YouGov dropped their Virginia polls showing Dems up big
No New Jersey polls were even close to actual outcome
Probably entering a volatile political environment so good to keep open mind
www.npr.org/2025/11/19/n...
November 19, 2025 at 12:46 PM
As the article points out this is how big the Dem lead was in November 2017! And he recovered a little from that in 2018
I was not expecting the subject of this article to be my child’s playmate from 13 years ago but I’m really proud nonetheless forward.com/opinion/7839...
Israel deported me for helping West Bank Palestinians. I won't give up on a peaceful future for the country I love
Israel deported Leila Stillman-Utterback, 18, after she aided West Bank Palestinians in the olive harvest. She can't return for 10 years.
forward.com
November 18, 2025 at 12:20 AM
I was not expecting the subject of this article to be my child’s playmate from 13 years ago but I’m really proud nonetheless forward.com/opinion/7839...
I'm still curious for your strategy to wring a point or two out of your candidate, but you should be honest with me that's what it is
strategists/consultants don't often talk about role of external factors like structural trends, incumbency and economic conditions because they can't control them so can't sell their services off them, but these things determine the vast majority of elections and **analysts** should still pay attn
November 17, 2025 at 9:59 PM
I'm still curious for your strategy to wring a point or two out of your candidate, but you should be honest with me that's what it is
He is the first presidential candidate I can remember from his 1984 run. We share a first and a middle name which meant i supported him as a 7 year old but my child self was totally correct. I was part of a small group of high school teachers he spoke to at his Alma mater in our library
November 17, 2025 at 4:50 AM
He is the first presidential candidate I can remember from his 1984 run. We share a first and a middle name which meant i supported him as a 7 year old but my child self was totally correct. I was part of a small group of high school teachers he spoke to at his Alma mater in our library
Since the real Hercules Mulligan was a slaveholder, he'd probably take this job. Also this doesn't scream confidence to me in them being able to defend their gerrymander at the ballot box
WTF, the Kansas City Star is reporting that a mysterious group hired a fake 'campaign canvasser' who'd join the effort to collect signatures to halt the GOP's gerrymander... but who'd be a spy on the inside.
www.kansascity.com/news/politic...
www.kansascity.com/news/politic...
Inside mysterious push to block signature-gathering against Missouri redistricting
The source of the contract remains a mystery. But its existence has raised alarm as Missouri gears up for a potential statewide vote.
www.kansascity.com
November 12, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Since the real Hercules Mulligan was a slaveholder, he'd probably take this job. Also this doesn't scream confidence to me in them being able to defend their gerrymander at the ballot box
Always read Dave Karpf on movement org structures!
There was an NYT piece last week about the Sierra Club, and (by extension) the current state of the climate movement.
I think they got three big things wrong.
davekarpf.substack.com/p/every-gene...
I think they got three big things wrong.
davekarpf.substack.com/p/every-gene...
Every generation gets to recreate the environmental movement to suit its own purposes
Some big-picture reactions to a recent NYT piece
davekarpf.substack.com
November 12, 2025 at 8:11 PM
Always read Dave Karpf on movement org structures!
This is so awful that i hope the specter of it encourages them NOT to do a full teardown
Derek Falvey wants to build on what the #MNTwins already have in place. But if the Twins continue to tear it down, Byron Buxton might be open to waiving his no-trade clause.
www.nytimes.com/athletic/680...
www.nytimes.com/athletic/680...
Byron Buxton could reconsider Twins future if roster teardown continues
After professing his desire to remain with in Minnesota for the remainder of his career, Buxton could now be having second thoughts.
www.nytimes.com
November 12, 2025 at 6:37 PM
This is so awful that i hope the specter of it encourages them NOT to do a full teardown
All my favorites in one place, this is @jlray.bsky.social ‘s music/work
Fascinating poll from @the-downballot.com!
And I've gotta say, The Downballot has a best-in-class #Substack. Definitely worth a subscription, or at least a #BlueSky follow!
They cover all elections, from Chuck Schumer primary challenges to Katie Wilson for Seattle mayor. They'll keep you informed!
And I've gotta say, The Downballot has a best-in-class #Substack. Definitely worth a subscription, or at least a #BlueSky follow!
They cover all elections, from Chuck Schumer primary challenges to Katie Wilson for Seattle mayor. They'll keep you informed!
After racking up decisive wins across the country last week, how can Democrats keep up the momentum at the ballot box next year, when Congress will be on the line?
An exclusive poll for The Downballot offers an answer.
An exclusive poll for The Downballot offers an answer.
November 11, 2025 at 6:13 PM
All my favorites in one place, this is @jlray.bsky.social ‘s music/work
I was lucky to be at college and just was against whatever people seemed to like. This worked out much better than me avoiding ultimate frisbee
I was in sixth grade and it was the first movie I ever watched where I was "this is definitely not good" and I was at the age where I presumed a movie in a theater = good
Of course everyone is allowed to like what they like, but this widespread prequel rehabilitation blows my mind. I was 9 when the phantom menace came out, and didn’t like it then. Do you know how bad a space movie had to be for me to not like it at age 9?
November 11, 2025 at 12:03 AM
I was lucky to be at college and just was against whatever people seemed to like. This worked out much better than me avoiding ultimate frisbee
Another left wing win in the offing?
JUST IN: Katie Wilson is now ahead of Mayor Bruce Harrell in the Seattle mayoral race.
Stay tuned for details on today's count.
Stay tuned for details on today's count.
November 10, 2025 at 11:56 PM
Another left wing win in the offing?
Lets just beat them every month. And as Aftyn’s former colleague I can tell you she will not be kind to cavers.
To everyone mad at Chuck Schumer's leadership and the government shutdown ending w/o protections for healthcare:
The best way to get the GOP to reinstate ACA subsidies?
Win elections. Make them scared.
#TN07 election is in 24 days.
A Dem upset is possible.
Donate. Volunteer. SUPPORT AFTYN BEHN!
The best way to get the GOP to reinstate ACA subsidies?
Win elections. Make them scared.
#TN07 election is in 24 days.
A Dem upset is possible.
Donate. Volunteer. SUPPORT AFTYN BEHN!
24 DAYS UNTIL WE MAKE HISTORY.
Now is our time. Thank you to the @DNC chair, Ken Martin, for coming to Nashville, and to all of those who canvassed yesterday.
Remember, talking to voters is the only way we’re going to win— sign up today
🔗 Link in bio
Now is our time. Thank you to the @DNC chair, Ken Martin, for coming to Nashville, and to all of those who canvassed yesterday.
Remember, talking to voters is the only way we’re going to win— sign up today
🔗 Link in bio
November 10, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Lets just beat them every month. And as Aftyn’s former colleague I can tell you she will not be kind to cavers.
Wait is Kirsten Dunst performing the musical from Muppets Take Manhattan in Spider Man 3?!
November 10, 2025 at 2:16 AM
Wait is Kirsten Dunst performing the musical from Muppets Take Manhattan in Spider Man 3?!
You might have! And you might still have the electoral map in your head
Might you have missed some of the depth of Tuesday's results, beyond the big headline races?
I'd been watching roughly 200 races heading into Election Day, so here's a thread of some of what you don't want to skip over!
🧵
I'd been watching roughly 200 races heading into Election Day, so here's a thread of some of what you don't want to skip over!
🧵
November 9, 2025 at 9:39 PM
You might have! And you might still have the electoral map in your head
It still wasn’t just blue cities having local elections: the sequel
Georgia Dems also win several state legislative seats in both chambers that Trump had won by more than 20 points (the darkest red on the maps on the left in this thread).
They even won a few House seats that Trump had won by more than 30 points
They even won a few House seats that Trump had won by more than 30 points
Dems won Georgia’s Public Service Commission elections by 25-point landslides—their largest for any office since 1998—and improved over 2024 everywhere.
These maps compare results by state House district for:
2024 president (left) - 96-84 Trump majority
2025 PSC seat 3 (right) - 115-65 Dem majority
These maps compare results by state House district for:
2024 president (left) - 96-84 Trump majority
2025 PSC seat 3 (right) - 115-65 Dem majority
November 9, 2025 at 5:13 PM
It still wasn’t just blue cities having local elections: the sequel
It wasn’t just blue cities having local elections
In Georgia’s statewide races on Tuesday, the two Democratic candidates won 8 counties where, in 2024, Kamala Harris had received UNDER 40%.
via: almanacofamericanpolitics.substack.com/p/democrats-...
via: almanacofamericanpolitics.substack.com/p/democrats-...
November 9, 2025 at 5:12 PM
It wasn’t just blue cities having local elections
November 9, 2025 at 5:12 PM