Sam Shirazi
@samshirazi.bsky.social
Host of Federal Fallout Podcast. Follow for Virginia Elections and Politics 🗳️ (Views expressed are mine personally) contact: [email protected]
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
As a political scientist, I love the term firehouse primary & am glad to see how it’s widely used in Virginia. A real opportunity to teach the public about how elections are run in the U.S.
Today is the SD-15 Firehouse primary to pick the Dem nominee in the district
This is for the special election to replace Ghazala Hashmi in the State Senate
Delegates Mike Jones and Debra Gardner are running
Hopefully we get results tonight after voting ends at 6
This is for the special election to replace Ghazala Hashmi in the State Senate
Delegates Mike Jones and Debra Gardner are running
Hopefully we get results tonight after voting ends at 6
Democratic "firehouse primary" today for SD15 (to replace State Sen. @senatorhashmi.bsky.social, who was elected Lt. Governor) bluevirginia.us/2025/12/va-s...
December 7, 2025 at 1:21 PM
As a political scientist, I love the term firehouse primary & am glad to see how it’s widely used in Virginia. A real opportunity to teach the public about how elections are run in the U.S.
Today is the SD-15 Firehouse primary to pick the Dem nominee in the district
This is for the special election to replace Ghazala Hashmi in the State Senate
Delegates Mike Jones and Debra Gardner are running
Hopefully we get results tonight after voting ends at 6
This is for the special election to replace Ghazala Hashmi in the State Senate
Delegates Mike Jones and Debra Gardner are running
Hopefully we get results tonight after voting ends at 6
Democratic "firehouse primary" today for SD15 (to replace State Sen. @senatorhashmi.bsky.social, who was elected Lt. Governor) bluevirginia.us/2025/12/va-s...
December 7, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Today is the SD-15 Firehouse primary to pick the Dem nominee in the district
This is for the special election to replace Ghazala Hashmi in the State Senate
Delegates Mike Jones and Debra Gardner are running
Hopefully we get results tonight after voting ends at 6
This is for the special election to replace Ghazala Hashmi in the State Senate
Delegates Mike Jones and Debra Gardner are running
Hopefully we get results tonight after voting ends at 6
New Federal Fallout on 4 lessons from each of Youngkin’s 4 years in office
Don’t get too focused on national politics
Don’t get too far out ahead of the voters
Do build relationships with the General Assembly
Do have a plan to get a successor elected
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
Don’t get too focused on national politics
Don’t get too far out ahead of the voters
Do build relationships with the General Assembly
Do have a plan to get a successor elected
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
Episode 40: 4 Lessons from Youngkin's Time in Office
Podcast Episode · Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections · 12/06/2025 · 26m
podcasts.apple.com
December 6, 2025 at 2:53 PM
New Federal Fallout on 4 lessons from each of Youngkin’s 4 years in office
Don’t get too focused on national politics
Don’t get too far out ahead of the voters
Do build relationships with the General Assembly
Do have a plan to get a successor elected
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
Don’t get too focused on national politics
Don’t get too far out ahead of the voters
Do build relationships with the General Assembly
Do have a plan to get a successor elected
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
Overall good news for GOP
But increases likelihood Virginia redistricting referendum will pass
Takes away argument it’s not necessary had old districts been used in Texas
Virginia GOP still bringing state legal challenges that will be heard by Virginia Supreme Court
But increases likelihood Virginia redistricting referendum will pass
Takes away argument it’s not necessary had old districts been used in Texas
Virginia GOP still bringing state legal challenges that will be heard by Virginia Supreme Court
December 4, 2025 at 11:25 PM
Overall good news for GOP
But increases likelihood Virginia redistricting referendum will pass
Takes away argument it’s not necessary had old districts been used in Texas
Virginia GOP still bringing state legal challenges that will be heard by Virginia Supreme Court
But increases likelihood Virginia redistricting referendum will pass
Takes away argument it’s not necessary had old districts been used in Texas
Virginia GOP still bringing state legal challenges that will be heard by Virginia Supreme Court
The party run primary to pick the Dem nominee to replace Ghazala Hashmi in the State Senate will be this Sunday
8 hours of voting at 3 locations
Delegates Debra Gardner and Mike Jones are facing off
The special election itself is on January 6
8 hours of voting at 3 locations
Delegates Debra Gardner and Mike Jones are facing off
The special election itself is on January 6
DPVA statement: "Firehouse Primary for SD-15 to Be Held on Sunday, December 7, 2025" bluevirginia.us/2025/12/va-s...
December 4, 2025 at 6:56 PM
The party run primary to pick the Dem nominee to replace Ghazala Hashmi in the State Senate will be this Sunday
8 hours of voting at 3 locations
Delegates Debra Gardner and Mike Jones are facing off
The special election itself is on January 6
8 hours of voting at 3 locations
Delegates Debra Gardner and Mike Jones are facing off
The special election itself is on January 6
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
DPVA statement: "Firehouse Primary for SD-15 to Be Held on Sunday, December 7, 2025" bluevirginia.us/2025/12/va-s...
December 4, 2025 at 5:58 PM
DPVA statement: "Firehouse Primary for SD-15 to Be Held on Sunday, December 7, 2025" bluevirginia.us/2025/12/va-s...
New Roanoke College poll of Virginia
Approve/disapprove numbers are something, but…
Caveat poll has party breakdown of 38% independent, 34% Dem, 25% GOP so grain of salt
Trump Approval
Disapprove 63%
Approve 34%
Youngkin Approval
Approve 54%
Disapprove 38%
www.roanoke.edu/news/rc_poll...
Approve/disapprove numbers are something, but…
Caveat poll has party breakdown of 38% independent, 34% Dem, 25% GOP so grain of salt
Trump Approval
Disapprove 63%
Approve 34%
Youngkin Approval
Approve 54%
Disapprove 38%
www.roanoke.edu/news/rc_poll...
RC Poll: Virginians want photo ID to vote but like mail voting
The commonwealth's political anxiety index is mostly unchanged.
www.roanoke.edu
December 4, 2025 at 4:09 PM
New Roanoke College poll of Virginia
Approve/disapprove numbers are something, but…
Caveat poll has party breakdown of 38% independent, 34% Dem, 25% GOP so grain of salt
Trump Approval
Disapprove 63%
Approve 34%
Youngkin Approval
Approve 54%
Disapprove 38%
www.roanoke.edu/news/rc_poll...
Approve/disapprove numbers are something, but…
Caveat poll has party breakdown of 38% independent, 34% Dem, 25% GOP so grain of salt
Trump Approval
Disapprove 63%
Approve 34%
Youngkin Approval
Approve 54%
Disapprove 38%
www.roanoke.edu/news/rc_poll...
One of big questions is if Virginia Dems release draft maps before any potential referendum
I don’t think they would be required to do so under the current referendum language
9-2 would look cleaner
10-1 certainly possible would require splitting up NOVA more
I don’t think they would be required to do so under the current referendum language
9-2 would look cleaner
10-1 certainly possible would require splitting up NOVA more
December 3, 2025 at 9:46 PM
One of big questions is if Virginia Dems release draft maps before any potential referendum
I don’t think they would be required to do so under the current referendum language
9-2 would look cleaner
10-1 certainly possible would require splitting up NOVA more
I don’t think they would be required to do so under the current referendum language
9-2 would look cleaner
10-1 certainly possible would require splitting up NOVA more
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
AG-Elect Jay Jones Announces Senior Staff for Office of the AG (Including Tillman Breckenridge, the First African-American Solicitor General in Virginia’s History); Also: Travis Hill will be Chief Deputy Attorney General; Nicky Zamostny will be Chief of Staff bluevirginia.us/2025/12/atto...
Attorney General-Elect Jay Jones Announces Senior Staff for Office of the Attorney General (Including Tillman Breckenridge, the First African-American Solicitor General in Virginia’s History)
From Virginia Attorney General-elect Jay Jones: Attorney General-Elect Jay Jones Announces Senior Staff for Office of the Attorney General Experienced Legal Experts and Public Servants will Fight for ...
bluevirginia.us
December 3, 2025 at 6:15 PM
AG-Elect Jay Jones Announces Senior Staff for Office of the AG (Including Tillman Breckenridge, the First African-American Solicitor General in Virginia’s History); Also: Travis Hill will be Chief Deputy Attorney General; Nicky Zamostny will be Chief of Staff bluevirginia.us/2025/12/atto...
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
Hashmi's "a key player in state government now...we had a blowout election in the House of Delegates, but the Senate wasn’t up. We still just have a one-seat majority & we cannot always count on every Democrat in the Senate to be unified on any issue." - @KevinHolst_ bluevirginia.us/2025/12/demo...
Democratic Lt. Gov. Association Executive Director on “history-making candidate” Ghazala Hashmi Overcoming the “daily, just vicious racist attacks, not just by John Reid, but by Governor Youngkin and ...
Lots of interesting interviews by Sam Shirazi over at Federal Fallout, this morning's with Kevin Holst of the Democratic Lt. Governors Association. See below for a few highlights. Why did Democrats ha...
bluevirginia.us
December 3, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Hashmi's "a key player in state government now...we had a blowout election in the House of Delegates, but the Senate wasn’t up. We still just have a one-seat majority & we cannot always count on every Democrat in the Senate to be unified on any issue." - @KevinHolst_ bluevirginia.us/2025/12/demo...
Federal Fallout interview with Kevin Holst from DLGA
A deep dive into the Virginia LG race
And what the midterms might hold
Learned new fact
Lt. Governor of Maryland Aruna Miller is also Indian immigrant
Hashmi was born in same year as her also in Hyderabad
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
A deep dive into the Virginia LG race
And what the midterms might hold
Learned new fact
Lt. Governor of Maryland Aruna Miller is also Indian immigrant
Hashmi was born in same year as her also in Hyderabad
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
Bonus Interview: Kevin Holst on the Virginia Lt. Governor Race
Podcast Episode · Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections · 12/03/2025 · 28m
podcasts.apple.com
December 3, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Federal Fallout interview with Kevin Holst from DLGA
A deep dive into the Virginia LG race
And what the midterms might hold
Learned new fact
Lt. Governor of Maryland Aruna Miller is also Indian immigrant
Hashmi was born in same year as her also in Hyderabad
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
A deep dive into the Virginia LG race
And what the midterms might hold
Learned new fact
Lt. Governor of Maryland Aruna Miller is also Indian immigrant
Hashmi was born in same year as her also in Hyderabad
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
For additional context here, these are the relative turnout levels of each of the congressional special elections we've had this year
This race got super nationalized - relative turnout ended up being huge
But to me, that makes this the most encouraging special for Ds so far
This race got super nationalized - relative turnout ended up being huge
But to me, that makes this the most encouraging special for Ds so far
December 3, 2025 at 3:36 AM
For additional context here, these are the relative turnout levels of each of the congressional special elections we've had this year
This race got super nationalized - relative turnout ended up being huge
But to me, that makes this the most encouraging special for Ds so far
This race got super nationalized - relative turnout ended up being huge
But to me, that makes this the most encouraging special for Ds so far
The good news for Republicans
The were able to get out their middle propensity voters
That gave them the win
Th bad news for Republicans
There was still a big swing away from them
Shows persuasion is going on and it’s not just turnout
The were able to get out their middle propensity voters
That gave them the win
Th bad news for Republicans
There was still a big swing away from them
Shows persuasion is going on and it’s not just turnout
Identical turnout to 2022, but a completely different universe
13% to the left of 2022/2024 despite midterm-level turnout
13% to the left of 2022/2024 despite midterm-level turnout
December 3, 2025 at 3:13 AM
The good news for Republicans
The were able to get out their middle propensity voters
That gave them the win
Th bad news for Republicans
There was still a big swing away from them
Shows persuasion is going on and it’s not just turnout
The were able to get out their middle propensity voters
That gave them the win
Th bad news for Republicans
There was still a big swing away from them
Shows persuasion is going on and it’s not just turnout
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
Identical turnout to 2022, but a completely different universe
13% to the left of 2022/2024 despite midterm-level turnout
13% to the left of 2022/2024 despite midterm-level turnout
December 3, 2025 at 3:06 AM
Identical turnout to 2022, but a completely different universe
13% to the left of 2022/2024 despite midterm-level turnout
13% to the left of 2022/2024 despite midterm-level turnout
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
🚨🚨🚨 literally a 5-alarm fire for the GOP!
A 13 point swing with basically identical turnout to a midterm is really, REALLY bad….
A 13 point swing with basically identical turnout to a midterm is really, REALLY bad….
Identical turnout to 2022, but a completely different universe
13% to the left of 2022/2024 despite midterm-level turnout
13% to the left of 2022/2024 despite midterm-level turnout
December 3, 2025 at 3:07 AM
🚨🚨🚨 literally a 5-alarm fire for the GOP!
A 13 point swing with basically identical turnout to a midterm is really, REALLY bad….
A 13 point swing with basically identical turnout to a midterm is really, REALLY bad….
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
Aftyn Behn is going to fall a little short here but the shift from 2024 in today's election in central Tennessee is looking like ~15 or so points to the left.
The big surprise to me is total turnout, specials normally are very low turnout but this may have more voters than the '22 midterm in TN-07
The big surprise to me is total turnout, specials normally are very low turnout but this may have more voters than the '22 midterm in TN-07
December 3, 2025 at 3:08 AM
Aftyn Behn is going to fall a little short here but the shift from 2024 in today's election in central Tennessee is looking like ~15 or so points to the left.
The big surprise to me is total turnout, specials normally are very low turnout but this may have more voters than the '22 midterm in TN-07
The big surprise to me is total turnout, specials normally are very low turnout but this may have more voters than the '22 midterm in TN-07
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
It is actually crazy that #TN07 was as close to Generic Republican vs Generic Democrat as you can get (and that's being a little generous to Aftyn Behn) and it's resulting in a D+15 overperformance.
Adjust your 2026 priors accordingly!
Adjust your 2026 priors accordingly!
December 3, 2025 at 2:36 AM
It is actually crazy that #TN07 was as close to Generic Republican vs Generic Democrat as you can get (and that's being a little generous to Aftyn Behn) and it's resulting in a D+15 overperformance.
Adjust your 2026 priors accordingly!
Adjust your 2026 priors accordingly!
Seems like Republicans win TN-7 at end of day
Dems will have a big over performance
GOP will be happy to avoid another loss after results last month
Still all 435 seats will be up next year
And plenty more Trump seats less red than the one tonight
Dems will have a big over performance
GOP will be happy to avoid another loss after results last month
Still all 435 seats will be up next year
And plenty more Trump seats less red than the one tonight
December 3, 2025 at 2:04 AM
Seems like Republicans win TN-7 at end of day
Dems will have a big over performance
GOP will be happy to avoid another loss after results last month
Still all 435 seats will be up next year
And plenty more Trump seats less red than the one tonight
Dems will have a big over performance
GOP will be happy to avoid another loss after results last month
Still all 435 seats will be up next year
And plenty more Trump seats less red than the one tonight
My hot take on TN-7 special election
It’s going to be close
There will be a big Dem over performance
Big question is how much of a difference there is between early vote and Election Day
Will decide who will win
It’s going to be close
There will be a big Dem over performance
Big question is how much of a difference there is between early vote and Election Day
Will decide who will win
December 3, 2025 at 1:28 AM
My hot take on TN-7 special election
It’s going to be close
There will be a big Dem over performance
Big question is how much of a difference there is between early vote and Election Day
Will decide who will win
It’s going to be close
There will be a big Dem over performance
Big question is how much of a difference there is between early vote and Election Day
Will decide who will win
2030/2032 Senate cycles will likely see big changes in Virginia
Warner/Kaine duo have dominated Virginia Dem politics since they were first elected together in 2001
Both likely to eventually retire, but Warner has one last campaign in him in a favorable midterm
Warner/Kaine duo have dominated Virginia Dem politics since they were first elected together in 2001
Both likely to eventually retire, but Warner has one last campaign in him in a favorable midterm
December 2, 2025 at 9:20 PM
2030/2032 Senate cycles will likely see big changes in Virginia
Warner/Kaine duo have dominated Virginia Dem politics since they were first elected together in 2001
Both likely to eventually retire, but Warner has one last campaign in him in a favorable midterm
Warner/Kaine duo have dominated Virginia Dem politics since they were first elected together in 2001
Both likely to eventually retire, but Warner has one last campaign in him in a favorable midterm
A date has been set for the Special Election to replace Ghazala Hashmi in the State Senate
It will be January 6 before the General Assembly convenes
The firehouse primary to select nominees will have to be soon given December 7 filing deadline
It will be January 6 before the General Assembly convenes
The firehouse primary to select nominees will have to be soon given December 7 filing deadline
"Today I called the special election to replace Senator Hashmi in the Virginia Senate for January 6th." - VA Senate President Pro Tem @SenLouiseLucas bluevirginia.us/2025/12/tues...
December 2, 2025 at 9:07 PM
A date has been set for the Special Election to replace Ghazala Hashmi in the State Senate
It will be January 6 before the General Assembly convenes
The firehouse primary to select nominees will have to be soon given December 7 filing deadline
It will be January 6 before the General Assembly convenes
The firehouse primary to select nominees will have to be soon given December 7 filing deadline
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
Attorney General-Elect Jay Jones Moves to Protect Virginia’s Background Check Law; Jones Files Motion to Extend Appeal Deadline After Attorney General Miyares Fails to Act bluevirginia.us/2025/12/mond...
December 2, 2025 at 12:20 AM
Attorney General-Elect Jay Jones Moves to Protect Virginia’s Background Check Law; Jones Files Motion to Extend Appeal Deadline After Attorney General Miyares Fails to Act bluevirginia.us/2025/12/mond...
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger Endorses Prosecutor Shannon Taylor for Congress in VA-01 ("I've known Shannon for years, I've seen her work up close, and I know she will fight tirelessly for the hardworking families of Virginia's 1st District.") bluevirginia.us/2025/12/gove...
Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger Endorses Prosecutor Shannon Taylor for Congress in VA-01
See below for a big endorsement, by Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger of VA01 Democratic candidate Shannon Taylor (the Henrico County Commonwealth's Attorney who narrowly lost the Democratic AG primar...
bluevirginia.us
December 2, 2025 at 1:11 PM
Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger Endorses Prosecutor Shannon Taylor for Congress in VA-01 ("I've known Shannon for years, I've seen her work up close, and I know she will fight tirelessly for the hardworking families of Virginia's 1st District.") bluevirginia.us/2025/12/gove...
State Senator Mark Peake stepping down as Chair of Virginia GOP
Says work in State Senate will take up much of his time
But obviously this year’s election results might also be a factor
Virginia Republicans at a low point in recent history so next person will have work cut out
Says work in State Senate will take up much of his time
But obviously this year’s election results might also be a factor
Virginia Republicans at a low point in recent history so next person will have work cut out
December 1, 2025 at 8:30 PM
State Senator Mark Peake stepping down as Chair of Virginia GOP
Says work in State Senate will take up much of his time
But obviously this year’s election results might also be a factor
Virginia Republicans at a low point in recent history so next person will have work cut out
Says work in State Senate will take up much of his time
But obviously this year’s election results might also be a factor
Virginia Republicans at a low point in recent history so next person will have work cut out
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
Interesting Virginia election post-mortem with @samshirazi.bsky.social and Ben Tribbett (who I wish was on Bluesky) that also spends a lot of time on potential redistricting and a bit of a history lesson on Virginia maps.
open.substack.com/pub/samshira...
open.substack.com/pub/samshira...
Episode 39: Ben Tribbett Returns
Hi everyone, I’m Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections.
open.substack.com
November 30, 2025 at 9:59 PM
Interesting Virginia election post-mortem with @samshirazi.bsky.social and Ben Tribbett (who I wish was on Bluesky) that also spends a lot of time on potential redistricting and a bit of a history lesson on Virginia maps.
open.substack.com/pub/samshira...
open.substack.com/pub/samshira...