Sam Shirazi
banner
samshirazi.bsky.social
Sam Shirazi
@samshirazi.bsky.social
Host of Federal Fallout Podcast. Follow for Virginia Elections and Politics 🗳️ (Views expressed are mine personally) contact: [email protected]
James Osyf suspends his campaign in VA-2

That should give Elaine Luria a clear path to the Dem nomination

Expect lots of moves around Virginia redistricting

Lots of uncertainty about lines so fluid situation with campaigns
December 9, 2025 at 2:12 PM
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
BTW, in addition to @tomperriello, there are five Dems (Mike Pruitt, Kate Zabriskie, Adele Stichel, Suzanne Krzyzanowski, Paul Riley) per @vpapupdates also running in VA05, w/another possibility being Sam Rasoul depending on how district lines are drawn. bluevirginia.us/2025/12/brea...
BREAKING: Former Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA05) Announces Candidacy for 5th Congressional District, Declaring “This Is an All-Hands-on-Deck Moment”
Very big news in VA05 - former Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA05) announces his candidacy, as has been rumored the past couple days, for his old seat...potentially in VERY different (and "bluer") district li...
bluevirginia.us
December 9, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Big announcement as former Rep. Tom Perriello announces a bid for Congress

He was last Dem to represent the “fightin’ fifth” (VA-5)

He won during the 2008 blue wave, but then lost in 2010 red wave

Imagine VA Redistricting a big factor here
December 9, 2025 at 1:52 PM
New Federal Fallout interview with State Senator @pwcdanica.bsky.social

How did Dems do so well in 2025

How ambitious should they be in 2027

What’s in store for the General Assembly

What’s going on with redistricting

Lots to cover!

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
Bonus Interview: State Senator Danica Roem on 2025 and Beyond
Podcast Episode · Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections · 12/09/2025 · 37m
podcasts.apple.com
December 9, 2025 at 1:47 PM
Today Tuesday December 9 has a special election in Fairfax County for Braddock District supervisor

This is after James Walkinshaw resigned his seat to go to Congress

Voters can cast ballots at their normal polling location until 7

Always an election in Virginia

www.ffxnow.com/2025/12/08/w...
What to know about Tuesday’s special election for Braddock District supervisor | FFXnow
Fairfax County's Braddock District will soon have a new representative on the Board of Supervisors. After six weeks of early voting, residents will officially head to the polls tomorrow (Tuesday) to s...
www.ffxnow.com
December 9, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
You get a special election, and you get one, we all get a special election!
December 8, 2025 at 11:59 PM
Delegate Mike Jones submits his resignation for next year after he won the SD-15 Dem nomination

That means there will be another special election for his House of Delegates seat

It includes part of Richmond city and Chesterfield County

A very blue seat at Harris +50%
December 8, 2025 at 11:57 PM
Del. Sam Rasoul takes first step toward potential Congressional run

If VA redistricting happens, Roanoke likely will be in much bluer district

Rasoul ran for LG in 2021 and VA-6 in 2008

He’s progressive and has spoken out against Israel as a Palestinian-American

cardinalnews.org/2025/12/08/r...
Rasoul to explore run for Congress as Virginia eyes redrawing district lines
The Democratic legislator from Roanoke said his decision would hinge on what new districts look like.
cardinalnews.org
December 8, 2025 at 12:14 PM
Delegate Mike Jones easily wins the SD-15 Dem nomination

Ghazala Hashmi endorsing him to replace her in State Senate big factor

He’s heavy favorite in Harris +28% seat

There will also be another special election for his House of Delegates seat in all likelihood…
Final results in SD15 VA Dem firehouse primary:

4107 total votes cast
2913 Mike Jones 70.9%
1207 Debra Gardner 29.4%

bluevirginia.us/2025/12/va-s...
December 8, 2025 at 12:00 PM
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
Polls closed, counting underway (could take a while) in the SD15 Dem firehouse primary. Sounds like around 4,000 votes cast; for comparison, the November 2024 Dem firehouse primary in SD32 had 6,065 votes cast. This one had very little notice, though... bluevirginia.us/2025/12/va-s...
December 7, 2025 at 11:40 PM
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
As a political scientist, I love the term firehouse primary & am glad to see how it’s widely used in Virginia. A real opportunity to teach the public about how elections are run in the U.S.
Today is the SD-15 Firehouse primary to pick the Dem nominee in the district

This is for the special election to replace Ghazala Hashmi in the State Senate

Delegates Mike Jones and Debra Gardner are running

Hopefully we get results tonight after voting ends at 6
Democratic "firehouse primary" today for SD15 (to replace State Sen. @senatorhashmi.bsky.social, who was elected Lt. Governor) bluevirginia.us/2025/12/va-s...
December 7, 2025 at 1:21 PM
Today is the SD-15 Firehouse primary to pick the Dem nominee in the district

This is for the special election to replace Ghazala Hashmi in the State Senate

Delegates Mike Jones and Debra Gardner are running

Hopefully we get results tonight after voting ends at 6
Democratic "firehouse primary" today for SD15 (to replace State Sen. @senatorhashmi.bsky.social, who was elected Lt. Governor) bluevirginia.us/2025/12/va-s...
December 7, 2025 at 1:17 PM
New Federal Fallout on 4 lessons from each of Youngkin’s 4 years in office

Don’t get too focused on national politics

Don’t get too far out ahead of the voters

Do build relationships with the General Assembly

Do have a plan to get a successor elected

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
Episode 40: 4 Lessons from Youngkin's Time in Office
Podcast Episode · Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections · 12/06/2025 · 26m
podcasts.apple.com
December 6, 2025 at 2:53 PM
Overall good news for GOP

But increases likelihood Virginia redistricting referendum will pass

Takes away argument it’s not necessary had old districts been used in Texas

Virginia GOP still bringing state legal challenges that will be heard by Virginia Supreme Court
December 4, 2025 at 11:25 PM
The party run primary to pick the Dem nominee to replace Ghazala Hashmi in the State Senate will be this Sunday

8 hours of voting at 3 locations

Delegates Debra Gardner and Mike Jones are facing off

The special election itself is on January 6
DPVA statement: "Firehouse Primary for SD-15 to Be Held on Sunday, December 7, 2025" bluevirginia.us/2025/12/va-s...
December 4, 2025 at 6:56 PM
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
DPVA statement: "Firehouse Primary for SD-15 to Be Held on Sunday, December 7, 2025" bluevirginia.us/2025/12/va-s...
December 4, 2025 at 5:58 PM
New Roanoke College poll of Virginia

Approve/disapprove numbers are something, but…

Caveat poll has party breakdown of 38% independent, 34% Dem, 25% GOP so grain of salt

Trump Approval

Disapprove 63%
Approve 34%

Youngkin Approval

Approve 54%
Disapprove 38%

www.roanoke.edu/news/rc_poll...
RC Poll: Virginians want photo ID to vote but like mail voting
The commonwealth's political anxiety index is mostly unchanged.
www.roanoke.edu
December 4, 2025 at 4:09 PM
One of big questions is if Virginia Dems release draft maps before any potential referendum

I don’t think they would be required to do so under the current referendum language

9-2 would look cleaner

10-1 certainly possible would require splitting up NOVA more
December 3, 2025 at 9:46 PM
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
AG-Elect Jay Jones Announces Senior Staff for Office of the AG (Including Tillman Breckenridge, the First African-American Solicitor General in Virginia’s History); Also: Travis Hill will be Chief Deputy Attorney General; Nicky Zamostny will be Chief of Staff bluevirginia.us/2025/12/atto...
Attorney General-Elect Jay Jones Announces Senior Staff for Office of the Attorney General (Including Tillman Breckenridge, the First African-American Solicitor General in Virginia’s History)
From Virginia Attorney General-elect Jay Jones: Attorney General-Elect Jay Jones Announces Senior Staff for Office of the Attorney General Experienced Legal Experts and Public Servants will Fight for ...
bluevirginia.us
December 3, 2025 at 6:15 PM
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
Hashmi's "a key player in state government now...we had a blowout election in the House of Delegates, but the Senate wasn’t up. We still just have a one-seat majority & we cannot always count on every Democrat in the Senate to be unified on any issue." - @KevinHolst_ bluevirginia.us/2025/12/demo...
Democratic Lt. Gov. Association Executive Director on “history-making candidate” Ghazala Hashmi Overcoming the “daily, just vicious racist attacks, not just by John Reid, but by Governor Youngkin and ...
Lots of interesting interviews by Sam Shirazi over at Federal Fallout, this morning's with Kevin Holst of the Democratic Lt. Governors Association. See below for a few highlights. Why did Democrats ha...
bluevirginia.us
December 3, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Federal Fallout interview with Kevin Holst from DLGA

A deep dive into the Virginia LG race

And what the midterms might hold

Learned new fact

Lt. Governor of Maryland Aruna Miller is also Indian immigrant

Hashmi was born in same year as her also in Hyderabad

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
Bonus Interview: Kevin Holst on the Virginia Lt. Governor Race
Podcast Episode · Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections · 12/03/2025 · 28m
podcasts.apple.com
December 3, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
For additional context here, these are the relative turnout levels of each of the congressional special elections we've had this year

This race got super nationalized - relative turnout ended up being huge

But to me, that makes this the most encouraging special for Ds so far
December 3, 2025 at 3:36 AM
The good news for Republicans

The were able to get out their middle propensity voters

That gave them the win

Th bad news for Republicans

There was still a big swing away from them

Shows persuasion is going on and it’s not just turnout
Identical turnout to 2022, but a completely different universe

13% to the left of 2022/2024 despite midterm-level turnout
December 3, 2025 at 3:13 AM
Reposted by Sam Shirazi
Identical turnout to 2022, but a completely different universe

13% to the left of 2022/2024 despite midterm-level turnout
December 3, 2025 at 3:06 AM