Jesse “ElectionSky When?” Bacon
@treyf.bsky.social
Sr Digital Organizing Manager at Indivisible these several years, IndivisiUnion forever. Still @Trayf on the x place. “They are a slow swimmer, but he always knows when to breathe.” I can opt you out.
My daughter is a declutterer and I expect her now to start hoarding pencils and dolls in protest.
Trump: "You can give up certain products. You could give up pencils. Because under the China policy, every child can get 37 pencils. They only need 1 or 2. They don't need that many. You always need steel. You don't need 37 dolls for your daughter. 2 or 3 is nice. So we're doing things right."
December 10, 2025 at 2:34 PM
My daughter is a declutterer and I expect her now to start hoarding pencils and dolls in protest.
This is what it would look like if I ever ran for Congress, except a Philly rowhome instead of a brownstone and Muppets instead of Mr Rogers. Go Brad!
I’m running for Congress because we need leaders who will fight, not fold. I recognize this moment, and I’m ready to meet it. #FightDontFold #LanderForNYC #LanderForCongress
December 10, 2025 at 2:06 PM
This is what it would look like if I ever ran for Congress, except a Philly rowhome instead of a brownstone and Muppets instead of Mr Rogers. Go Brad!
All this and Miami Beach!
A huge night for Democrats:
—They flip Miami's mayorship.
—They flip a state House district in Georgia that had voted Trump by 13%.
—They keep Albuquerque's mayorship, while the liberal faction flips city council.
—And they get big overperformances (+18 & +22) in 2 Florida specials.
—They flip Miami's mayorship.
—They flip a state House district in Georgia that had voted Trump by 13%.
—They keep Albuquerque's mayorship, while the liberal faction flips city council.
—And they get big overperformances (+18 & +22) in 2 Florida specials.
December 10, 2025 at 3:31 AM
All this and Miami Beach!
I am told this dapper overperformer is a member of Indivisible GA10! @indivisible.org
The Downballot flagged tonight's GA race as one to watch weeks ago. If you subscribe to our Morning Digest newsletter, you knew about this one well in advance!
Morning Digest: Georgia Democrats could flip this red seat in a December special election
After two massive statewide wins last week, the wind is at their backs
www.the-downballot.com
December 10, 2025 at 3:26 AM
I am told this dapper overperformer is a member of Indivisible GA10! @indivisible.org
It could really spiral at this point , he doesn’t care so he keeps doing whatever —> it gets worse! As bad as 2018 was for him, he cooled it on his most unpopular actions
If you think Trump's bad polling doesn't matter, I hope you reconsider after tonight's elections. Maybe his unpopularity doesn't affect *his* behavior, but it definitely impacts tons of other people—including many GOP voters who are either switching sides or staying home.
December 10, 2025 at 3:18 AM
It could really spiral at this point , he doesn’t care so he keeps doing whatever —> it gets worse! As bad as 2018 was for him, he cooled it on his most unpopular actions
If you are in line to post mayoral results, stay in line
For everyone who cared about the Miami mayoral election today... Albuquerque is a more populous city, and the votes there are just coming in. Stay tuned!
December 10, 2025 at 3:07 AM
If you are in line to post mayoral results, stay in line
Up on the watershed , staring at the fork in the road!
This Georgia flip is in a district that the GOP drew to drown Democratic voters in Athens into a neighboring red county, Oconee.
But tonight, Dems in Athens were out in FULL FORCE to swamp that gerrymander.
But tonight, Dems in Athens were out in FULL FORCE to swamp that gerrymander.
December 10, 2025 at 3:03 AM
Up on the watershed , staring at the fork in the road!
@leahgreenberg.bsky.social called it!
Remember how we said no Trump + 13 seats were safe? @the-downballot.com open.substack.com/pub/thedownb...
Georgia Democrats flip conservative seat in yet another upset
That's 25 pickups for Democrats nationwide this year—and zero for Republicans
open.substack.com
December 10, 2025 at 2:49 AM
@leahgreenberg.bsky.social called it!
Remember how we said no Trump + 13 seats were safe? @the-downballot.com open.substack.com/pub/thedownb...
Georgia Democrats flip conservative seat in yet another upset
That's 25 pickups for Democrats nationwide this year—and zero for Republicans
open.substack.com
December 10, 2025 at 2:12 AM
Remember how we said no Trump + 13 seats were safe? @the-downballot.com open.substack.com/pub/thedownb...
Almost Same over performance as Aftyn but in a Trump +12 seat!
DEMOCRATS HAVE FLIPPED GEORGIA'S #HD121 (Trump+12):
Eric Gisler (D)- 50.9%
Mack "Dutch" Guest (R)- 49.1%
Eric Gisler (D)- 50.9%
Mack "Dutch" Guest (R)- 49.1%
December 10, 2025 at 2:07 AM
Almost Same over performance as Aftyn but in a Trump +12 seat!
The Big Ole Board
Some (more) very big Dem overperformances on the Big Board tonight so far:
FL-SD-11: Republicans hold deep-red district, but Dems overperform by 22 pts
FL-HD-90: Dems hold blue-leaning district, outperforming 2024 by 17 and, perhaps more importantly, beating 2020 by 6
FL-SD-11: Republicans hold deep-red district, but Dems overperform by 22 pts
FL-HD-90: Dems hold blue-leaning district, outperforming 2024 by 17 and, perhaps more importantly, beating 2020 by 6
The Downballot's special elections Big Board for the 2025-26 cycle
docs.google.com
December 10, 2025 at 1:50 AM
The Big Ole Board
If this approach doesn’t work in Miami where exactly will it work?
Florida Republicans tried to link Democrat Eileen Higgins to Zohran Mamdani in tonight's race for Miami mayor. It didn't work out as they'd hoped.
Trump-endorsed candidate for Miami mayor shrugs off Trump’s Mamdani moment
A Miami Congresswoman led an effort to denounce socialism before Mamdani’s White House visit. Trump did the opposite.
www.miamiherald.com
December 10, 2025 at 1:49 AM
If this approach doesn’t work in Miami where exactly will it work?
OK well at least we have fallbacks both in name and player quality to Rock Chilloffsky
If they Twins don’t get the No. 1 pick, expected to be Roch Cholowsky, I’m talking myself into TCU OF Sawyer Strosnider.
Side note: The names in this class are elite. Some others:
Ace Reese
Coleman Brothwick
Jensen Hirschkorn
Gavin Grahovac
Savion Sims
Caden Bogenpohl
Zion Rose
Side note: The names in this class are elite. Some others:
Ace Reese
Coleman Brothwick
Jensen Hirschkorn
Gavin Grahovac
Savion Sims
Caden Bogenpohl
Zion Rose
December 8, 2025 at 5:55 PM
OK well at least we have fallbacks both in name and player quality to Rock Chilloffsky
Londoners will have to reset their tray in 2026, then draw a new bird
White storks to make historic return to London in 2026
White storks to make historic return to London in 2026
Species extinct as breeding birds in Britain since 1416 to be reintroduced in Barking and Dagenham as part of rewilding effort
www.theguardian.com
December 8, 2025 at 5:53 PM
Londoners will have to reset their tray in 2026, then draw a new bird
Reposted by Jesse “ElectionSky When?” Bacon
This is good for everyone involved, Shapiro wants Dems to “win big” in Pennsylvania next year which he believes would give him a leg up in 2028.
As many as 4 House seats + a Pennsylvania Trifecta are on the table
www.axios.com/2025/12/07/s...
As many as 4 House seats + a Pennsylvania Trifecta are on the table
www.axios.com/2025/12/07/s...
Shapiro's strategy for 2028 White House run starts with 2026
The Pennsylvania governor aims to boost Democrats in midterm races — and position himself as the party's most electable presidential contender.
www.axios.com
December 7, 2025 at 11:47 PM
This is good for everyone involved, Shapiro wants Dems to “win big” in Pennsylvania next year which he believes would give him a leg up in 2028.
As many as 4 House seats + a Pennsylvania Trifecta are on the table
www.axios.com/2025/12/07/s...
As many as 4 House seats + a Pennsylvania Trifecta are on the table
www.axios.com/2025/12/07/s...
In theaters!
December 8, 2025 at 12:30 AM
In theaters!
Movie you’ve watched more than six times with a gif. Hard mode: no Stars (Wars nor Trek), LOTR, or Marvel, Disney Animated or Pixar.
December 8, 2025 at 12:29 AM
Also how great of a name is “Rock Chilloutsky” as I first heard @aarongleeman.bsky.social pronouncing it
Hard to overstate the magnitude of MLB draft lottery this week for the Twins. They can get a good player wherever they end up, but if they get the #1 pick (22% chance) they'll have a shot at Roch Cholowsky, who's been called the best college SS prospect since Tulowitzki.
December 7, 2025 at 10:49 PM
Also how great of a name is “Rock Chilloutsky” as I first heard @aarongleeman.bsky.social pronouncing it
What an honor
So it turns out that, with the TX GOP's new gerrymander, there are no fewer than 18 of what you might call "Aftyn Behn" districts. That is to say, seats between Trump +20 to +25—seats Dems probably won't win, but where they could throw a serious scare into the GOP.
Via @donnermaps.bsky.social
Via @donnermaps.bsky.social
December 5, 2025 at 1:54 AM
What an honor
Reposted by Jesse “ElectionSky When?” Bacon
Someone on The Downballot Discord said that for Dem chances of taking back the House next year, a D+13 result with *high* turnout in #TN07 (i.e., what we saw) is better than a D+22 result (i.e., a Behn victory) with low turnout would have been. I couldn't agree more.
December 3, 2025 at 7:52 PM
Someone on The Downballot Discord said that for Dem chances of taking back the House next year, a D+13 result with *high* turnout in #TN07 (i.e., what we saw) is better than a D+22 result (i.e., a Behn victory) with low turnout would have been. I couldn't agree more.
So glad Mandela Barnes can put any learning from his narrow loss to good use! And if it is true that the DSCC abandoned him, this will be particularly sweet if he wins. But may the best Dem win!
Mandela Barnes is running for governor of Wisconsin three years after losing an excruciatingly tight Senate race. This time, he faces a packed field of Democratic primary opponents.
Morning Digest: Prominent Wisconsin Democrat seeks a comeback three years after a tight loss
But this time, a much more intense primary looms
www.the-downballot.com
December 3, 2025 at 6:01 PM
So glad Mandela Barnes can put any learning from his narrow loss to good use! And if it is true that the DSCC abandoned him, this will be particularly sweet if he wins. But may the best Dem win!
OK i think we all went through that "wait Cook PVI is half as big as what i expected.." but the rest of us moved through that and did not become Speaker of the House
this is straightforwardly Johnson lying about what Cook PVI means; I’ll do him the favor of assuming he understands what it means
I fucking despise Cook PVI
December 3, 2025 at 5:58 PM
OK i think we all went through that "wait Cook PVI is half as big as what i expected.." but the rest of us moved through that and did not become Speaker of the House
Lots of unironic flashbaccks to a 2004 special election but the forerunners of this site taught me how to read stuff like that way back then and they are still at it! Get subscribed so you too can feel and be smart!
The Downballot pioneered this approach to using special elections as a guide-post: compare them to presidential results, and aggregate as many as possible.
It's heartening to see it get adopted so widely! If you'd like to follow all of our coverage, sign up for our newsletter today:
It's heartening to see it get adopted so widely! If you'd like to follow all of our coverage, sign up for our newsletter today:
Subscribe to The Downballot
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www.the-downballot.com
December 3, 2025 at 5:54 PM
Lots of unironic flashbaccks to a 2004 special election but the forerunners of this site taught me how to read stuff like that way back then and they are still at it! Get subscribed so you too can feel and be smart!