Uncrewed
@uncrewed.bsky.social
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Writer of Grand Old Primary/Uncrewed's State Legislative Election Watch. Lauren Underwood Stan. Some people may know me as Chris. (He/Him)
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uncrewed.bsky.social
Scott campaigned for Douglass a bunch during the leadup to his 2024 Senate win (which also led to Vermont Republicans nearly flipping the State Senate), so this is pretty notable

Also continuing to prove that wave elections can elect some pretty weird/terrible candidates
bsky.app/profile/sqir...
sqirlgirly.bsky.social
Gov. Scott is calling on Republican Vermont State Sen. Samuel Douglass to resign after polarizing messages from a national group chat were leaked.

Douglass is allegedly in that chat and contributed to conversations involving racial stereotypes. #Trump #GOP www.mynbc5.com/article/scot...
uncrewed.bsky.social
There aren't many Democratic pickup opportunities in New Jersey this year, but #AD21 is the biggest one by far.

While the Republicans have held on here for the last few cycles, the Dems are mounting a strong challenge here this year. Will it be enough?

RATING: Toss-Up
uncrewed.bsky.social
New Jersey's #AD11 in Monmouth County has been a major state legislative battleground in The Garden State over the last few cycles, with both parties trading control of the two Assembly seats.

The incumbent Democrats are in a decent position to hold on here.

RATING: Lean D
uncrewed.bsky.social
Ethan will swing between posting interesting election stats and being the most smugly confident wrong person ever like it’s clockwork
uncrewed.bsky.social
The New Jersey Democrats flipped one of the two seats in #AD08 in 2023 for the first time since Watergate and now they're aiming to win the second seat.

The Republicans aren't going down easy though and are hoping to reclaim a seat they shockingly lost in 2023.

RATING: Toss-Up
uncrewed.bsky.social
Cubs lose, America wins
uncrewed.bsky.social
Most of the vote is in for the New Orleans Mayoral election and City Council President Helena Moreno has only expanded her lead. She's going to win this thing outright:

Helena Moreno (D)- 55.5%
Royce Duplessis (D)- 22.1%
Oliver Thomas (D)- 18.2%
uncrewed.bsky.social
Early/Absentee vote just dropped in the New Orleans Mayoral Race:

Helena Moreno (D)- 55.4%
Royce Duplessis (D)- 23.9%
Oliver Thomas (D)- 17.8%

Only hope for Duplessis/Thomas is that the e-day vote is less Moreno-friendly, because she wins outright if she stays above 50%.
uncrewed.bsky.social
Remember when Kevin McCarthy was going to finance a bunch of primary challengers to the Republicans who voted to oust him?

And then remember when none of them succeeded and like half of them didn't get any money from McCarthy?

Yeah this is Kevin McCarthy in a nutshell
uncrewed.bsky.social
How it started vs How it's going: Kevin McCarthy Edition
uncrewed.bsky.social
New Jersey's #AD04 was the state's top battleground district in 2023, with the Democrats managing to hang on to a district that's been trending away from them.

They'll be put to the test again this year, so expect a very close race in south Jersey.

RATING: Toss-Up
uncrewed.bsky.social
South Jersey politics continues to be wild
uncrewed.bsky.social
Nah it's cool man lol

They're in the mid-to-late 40's and neither have college degrees
uncrewed.bsky.social
Not explicitly, but she's definitely more conservative than the average voter. I think she liked Trump's showmanship more than everything too.

Also my dad's a mega Trump fan, so she gets some of that from him
uncrewed.bsky.social
Nope, she was never into politics before Trump either
uncrewed.bsky.social
I think she didn't vote at all in 2016, but did vote for him in 2020 and 2024.

She barely pays attention to politics outside of Trump
uncrewed.bsky.social
After flipping #AD03 back from the Republicans in 2023, the New Jersey Democrats are in for another tough battle in this Trump+8 district this year.

With Ciattarelli probably winning here by 10+, it's going to be an uphill battle to retain these seats.

RATING: Lean R (FLIP)
uncrewed.bsky.social
Today in totally anecdotal news: I listened to my Trump-voting mother rant about how bad ICE is and how they're racially profiling Hispanics

She also ranted about all the (what she calls) "White Trash" in our home town who go on Facebook and get mad at Hispanics who make posts about where ICE is at
uncrewed.bsky.social
The New Jersey Democrats are hoping to get lucky in Atlantic City this year by flipping #AD02.

However, their odds aren't really that great as the Harris+1 district is more Republican downballot and has two moderate GOP incumbents who regularly overperform.

RATING: Likely R
uncrewed.bsky.social
One of the two Republican incumbents resigned in order to head a state prison, so one of the two seats for the district will be up next month
uncrewed.bsky.social
New Hampshire Democrats are hoping to flip back a seat that's been trending away from them in a special election next month, namely #HDCoos5 in Berlin.

This seat backed Trump by 4, but the Dems are running a former State Rep who barely lost in 2024.

RATING: Toss-Up
uncrewed.bsky.social
The newest edition of Grand Old Primary is out now! This time around, we’re covering an election that signified an end of an era in Illinois politics, the 2018 Illinois Republican Governor primary!

Check it out below!
open.substack.com/pub/uncrewed...
Grand Old Primary: The Land of Lincoln Showdown
Taking a look at the 2018 Illinois Republican Governor Primary!
open.substack.com
uncrewed.bsky.social
Democratic nominee in a winnable County Legislature district disappeared back in April and is presumed dead. Dems are trying to replace him on the ballot, but the GOP don't want to lose the seat (it only backed Trump by 5 and probably backed Biden), so they're suing to keep him on the ballot.
uncrewed.bsky.social
Trump+22 district, so Van Epps should be the favorite here. I'm expecting a good Behn overperformance though, considering that Nashville should punch above its weight in a lower turnout special election.