George Pearkes
@peark.es
No longer Bluesky’s only resident finance bro | Macro Strategist | Even the blind squirrel get a nut sometime. | QCR: Non Culto, For The Crown | American via Canada, not Scottish.
*ALL CAPS HEADLINES LIKE THIS ARE FROM BLOOMBERG
📍 CLT
*ALL CAPS HEADLINES LIKE THIS ARE FROM BLOOMBERG
📍 CLT
Here are data center ABS/CMBS deals priced this year. Total amount is about $17bn. LTVs are around 50! And they trade at a significant spread; issuance-weighted avg rating is around A; that slice of the generic corporate bond market trades at a spread of ~70 bps (i.e. healthy risk premiums).
November 10, 2025 at 5:59 PM
Here are data center ABS/CMBS deals priced this year. Total amount is about $17bn. LTVs are around 50! And they trade at a significant spread; issuance-weighted avg rating is around A; that slice of the generic corporate bond market trades at a spread of ~70 bps (i.e. healthy risk premiums).
Reposted by George Pearkes
I think Dealbook does a disservice to its readers by calling CMBS "exotic financial instruments" and not contextualizing the relative size of any of the markets involved here.
This is insane. This is *literally* doing the same mechanics of the housing crisis and 2008 recession but to create debt to finance construction of AI data centers
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/08/b...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/08/b...
November 10, 2025 at 4:59 PM
I think Dealbook does a disservice to its readers by calling CMBS "exotic financial instruments" and not contextualizing the relative size of any of the markets involved here.
I love it when people mash together two completely unrelated phenomena as part of an effort to whip up excitement.
You don't have to invent a Chinese scheme to break the UST market to get mad at the existence of the UST basis, you can just understand that broad vol spikes lead to grossing down.
You don't have to invent a Chinese scheme to break the UST market to get mad at the existence of the UST basis, you can just understand that broad vol spikes lead to grossing down.
China has used the basis trade to unsettle the Treasury market and get Trump to fold on tariffs. We need to shut the basis trade down, not backstop it with a return to Fed balance sheet expansion. A piece inspired by the amazing @vmrconstancio.bsky.social.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-basis-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-basis-...
November 10, 2025 at 5:00 PM
I love it when people mash together two completely unrelated phenomena as part of an effort to whip up excitement.
You don't have to invent a Chinese scheme to break the UST market to get mad at the existence of the UST basis, you can just understand that broad vol spikes lead to grossing down.
You don't have to invent a Chinese scheme to break the UST market to get mad at the existence of the UST basis, you can just understand that broad vol spikes lead to grossing down.
Reposted by George Pearkes
From Oct. 16-24, 2025 Catawba-YouGov Survey of 1,000 North Carolinians:
"Who do you feel is responsible for the government shutdown?"
Democratic Party
Republican Party + President
All equally responsible
Overall & Partisan Self-ID (overall MOE +/- 3.79%; higher MOEs for subgroups)
#ncpol
"Who do you feel is responsible for the government shutdown?"
Democratic Party
Republican Party + President
All equally responsible
Overall & Partisan Self-ID (overall MOE +/- 3.79%; higher MOEs for subgroups)
#ncpol
November 10, 2025 at 4:26 PM
From Oct. 16-24, 2025 Catawba-YouGov Survey of 1,000 North Carolinians:
"Who do you feel is responsible for the government shutdown?"
Democratic Party
Republican Party + President
All equally responsible
Overall & Partisan Self-ID (overall MOE +/- 3.79%; higher MOEs for subgroups)
#ncpol
"Who do you feel is responsible for the government shutdown?"
Democratic Party
Republican Party + President
All equally responsible
Overall & Partisan Self-ID (overall MOE +/- 3.79%; higher MOEs for subgroups)
#ncpol
Private equity parent of Hooters, PF Changs, and Denny's reportedly nearing a purchse of Papa John's (PZZA).
Papa John’s Close To $65-per-share Private Takeover Deal With TriArtisan Capital | ABC Money
Papa John’s International Inc. (NASDAQ: PZZA) is nearing a potential buyout that would see the business taken private in an all-cash transaction by a
www.abcmoney.co.uk
November 10, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Private equity parent of Hooters, PF Changs, and Denny's reportedly nearing a purchse of Papa John's (PZZA).
Wait did...they not get what they wanted last night? What is happening?
*TRUMP OFFICIALS SAY SUPREME COURT SHOULD KEEP FOOD AID ON HOLD
*TRUMP: ALL AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS MUST GET BACK TO WORK, NOW
*TRUMP: AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS NOT WORKING WILL BE 'DOCKED'
*TRUMP OFFICIALS SAY SUPREME COURT SHOULD KEEP FOOD AID ON HOLD
*TRUMP: ALL AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS MUST GET BACK TO WORK, NOW
*TRUMP: AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS NOT WORKING WILL BE 'DOCKED'
November 10, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Wait did...they not get what they wanted last night? What is happening?
*TRUMP OFFICIALS SAY SUPREME COURT SHOULD KEEP FOOD AID ON HOLD
*TRUMP: ALL AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS MUST GET BACK TO WORK, NOW
*TRUMP: AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS NOT WORKING WILL BE 'DOCKED'
*TRUMP OFFICIALS SAY SUPREME COURT SHOULD KEEP FOOD AID ON HOLD
*TRUMP: ALL AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS MUST GET BACK TO WORK, NOW
*TRUMP: AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS NOT WORKING WILL BE 'DOCKED'
Reposted by George Pearkes
Committing self-harm by reading another Oren Cass oped in the FT, but what always strikes me as stupid about his work is the idea of tariffs as panacea. "If we had tariffs we wouldn't need stringent environmental standards" no Oren actually those two things are unrelated
November 10, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Committing self-harm by reading another Oren Cass oped in the FT, but what always strikes me as stupid about his work is the idea of tariffs as panacea. "If we had tariffs we wouldn't need stringent environmental standards" no Oren actually those two things are unrelated
Reposted by George Pearkes
Well deserved. As kind as he is informative.
November 10, 2025 at 3:03 PM
Well deserved. As kind as he is informative.
Look 3/5 is pretty good I guess.
November 10, 2025 at 2:53 PM
Look 3/5 is pretty good I guess.
Baskets rn
MS Quality -2.1%
MS Value -2.9%
MS Momentum +3.5%
MS Growth +2.1%
GS Most Short +2.7%
GS Nonprofitable Tech +4.4%
GS High Beta Cyclicals +2.6%
MS Quality -2.1%
MS Value -2.9%
MS Momentum +3.5%
MS Growth +2.1%
GS Most Short +2.7%
GS Nonprofitable Tech +4.4%
GS High Beta Cyclicals +2.6%
November 10, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Baskets rn
MS Quality -2.1%
MS Value -2.9%
MS Momentum +3.5%
MS Growth +2.1%
GS Most Short +2.7%
GS Nonprofitable Tech +4.4%
GS High Beta Cyclicals +2.6%
MS Quality -2.1%
MS Value -2.9%
MS Momentum +3.5%
MS Growth +2.1%
GS Most Short +2.7%
GS Nonprofitable Tech +4.4%
GS High Beta Cyclicals +2.6%
Some SCOTUS heads
*SUPREME COURT REJECTS BID TO OVERTURN SAME-SEX MARRIAGE RIGHTS
*MAIL-BALLOT DEADLINE CLASH DRAWS REVIEW FROM SUPREME COURT
*SUPREME COURT REJECTS BID TO OVERTURN SAME-SEX MARRIAGE RIGHTS
*MAIL-BALLOT DEADLINE CLASH DRAWS REVIEW FROM SUPREME COURT
November 10, 2025 at 2:33 PM
Some SCOTUS heads
*SUPREME COURT REJECTS BID TO OVERTURN SAME-SEX MARRIAGE RIGHTS
*MAIL-BALLOT DEADLINE CLASH DRAWS REVIEW FROM SUPREME COURT
*SUPREME COURT REJECTS BID TO OVERTURN SAME-SEX MARRIAGE RIGHTS
*MAIL-BALLOT DEADLINE CLASH DRAWS REVIEW FROM SUPREME COURT
A specific brand of Small Business Guy that has flourished in the past few years even in fully criminalized states is about to get nuked by this.
of all the things about this deal that are pissing me off this might have pissed me off the most
November 10, 2025 at 2:29 PM
A specific brand of Small Business Guy that has flourished in the past few years even in fully criminalized states is about to get nuked by this.
Reposted by George Pearkes
are you having trouble keeping up with all the developments in the redistricting wars?
no worries @christianpaz.bsky.social has got you covered
no worries @christianpaz.bsky.social has got you covered
The redistricting battle that could decide the 2026 elections, explained
Democrats are finally fighting back in the redistricting war.
www.vox.com
November 10, 2025 at 2:17 PM
are you having trouble keeping up with all the developments in the redistricting wars?
no worries @christianpaz.bsky.social has got you covered
no worries @christianpaz.bsky.social has got you covered
Reposted by George Pearkes
Watching the discourse on this app the last 16 hours:
November 10, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Watching the discourse on this app the last 16 hours:
Reposted by George Pearkes
Ipsos finds Trump’s approval rating is decreasing almost entirely because of anti-incumbent economic anxiety. Approval rating among people who say the economy is the # 1 issue is -24pts since Jan. It’s stable for people who index on all other issues www.ipsos.com/en-us/lesson...
November 9, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Ipsos finds Trump’s approval rating is decreasing almost entirely because of anti-incumbent economic anxiety. Approval rating among people who say the economy is the # 1 issue is -24pts since Jan. It’s stable for people who index on all other issues www.ipsos.com/en-us/lesson...
Reposted by George Pearkes
people start talking themselves into European soccer teams as good investment opportunities is never a good sign for the state of a business
*APOLLO BUYS 55% OF ATLETICO MADRID, EXPANSION SAYS
November 10, 2025 at 12:27 PM
people start talking themselves into European soccer teams as good investment opportunities is never a good sign for the state of a business
If you want a feel for how screwy the US beef market is right now, Tyson (TSN) just reported average beef sales prices up 17% YoY versus 9% estimated by analysts. Volumes fell 8.4% YoY (-3.3% estimated). But despite all that operating margins were negative in the category at -1.6% (-1.8% expected).
November 10, 2025 at 1:08 PM
If you want a feel for how screwy the US beef market is right now, Tyson (TSN) just reported average beef sales prices up 17% YoY versus 9% estimated by analysts. Volumes fell 8.4% YoY (-3.3% estimated). But despite all that operating margins were negative in the category at -1.6% (-1.8% expected).
*APOLLO BUYS 55% OF ATLETICO MADRID, EXPANSION SAYS
November 10, 2025 at 12:02 PM
*APOLLO BUYS 55% OF ATLETICO MADRID, EXPANSION SAYS
Reposted by George Pearkes
It's crazy how much the answer to a simple question like 'how confident are American consumers feeling about their current situation?' varies depending on how you measure the concept.
Conference Board: "Not as good as a year ago, but still above average."
University of Michigan: "WORST EVER!"
Conference Board: "Not as good as a year ago, but still above average."
University of Michigan: "WORST EVER!"
November 10, 2025 at 11:27 AM
It's crazy how much the answer to a simple question like 'how confident are American consumers feeling about their current situation?' varies depending on how you measure the concept.
Conference Board: "Not as good as a year ago, but still above average."
University of Michigan: "WORST EVER!"
Conference Board: "Not as good as a year ago, but still above average."
University of Michigan: "WORST EVER!"
"so far, the effects of the tariffs have largely been confined to goods, with little spillover into services inflation or inflation expectations, which remain relatively well-anchored around our target."
Policymaking Amid Change - San Francisco Fed
Getting monetary policy right requires looking at near- and medium-term economic impacts of cyclical and secular forces, writes SF Fed Pres. Mary C. Daly.
www.frbsf.org
November 10, 2025 at 11:30 AM
"so far, the effects of the tariffs have largely been confined to goods, with little spillover into services inflation or inflation expectations, which remain relatively well-anchored around our target."
Reposted by George Pearkes
BofA: First quarter since the earnings recession where small-cap EPS growth has outpaced large-cap EPS growth
November 10, 2025 at 10:23 AM
BofA: First quarter since the earnings recession where small-cap EPS growth has outpaced large-cap EPS growth
Reposted by George Pearkes
this is kinda true, but also kinda not true, King and CCM were anti-shutdown from Day 1 and they probably got enough support to roll Schumer (now, is being weak enough to be rolled over by Angus King a tenable political position? no.)
The coordinated nature of this—none are facing voters in 2026—means that either Schumer approved it or failed in his job as Senate Majority Leader to stop it.
Dems voting "no" get zero credit until they demand a change in leadership. Schumer out as Leader, Durbin out as Whip.
Dems voting "no" get zero credit until they demand a change in leadership. Schumer out as Leader, Durbin out as Whip.
so currently defectors are:
Kaine (2030)
Shaheen (Retiring)
Hasan (2028)
Fetterman (2028)
Durbin (Retiring)
CCM (2028)
Rosen (2030)
King (2030)
Kaine (2030)
Shaheen (Retiring)
Hasan (2028)
Fetterman (2028)
Durbin (Retiring)
CCM (2028)
Rosen (2030)
King (2030)
November 10, 2025 at 3:08 AM
this is kinda true, but also kinda not true, King and CCM were anti-shutdown from Day 1 and they probably got enough support to roll Schumer (now, is being weak enough to be rolled over by Angus King a tenable political position? no.)
Reposted by George Pearkes
Okay, anyway gongshow of this aside, a very important note:
there is another cloture vote! 4 days, because Rand Paul is going to draw it out. The squishes have no spines, at all, and this goes two ways. Incandescent anger, especially at Kaine and CCM/Rosen.
there is another cloture vote! 4 days, because Rand Paul is going to draw it out. The squishes have no spines, at all, and this goes two ways. Incandescent anger, especially at Kaine and CCM/Rosen.
November 10, 2025 at 3:11 AM
Okay, anyway gongshow of this aside, a very important note:
there is another cloture vote! 4 days, because Rand Paul is going to draw it out. The squishes have no spines, at all, and this goes two ways. Incandescent anger, especially at Kaine and CCM/Rosen.
there is another cloture vote! 4 days, because Rand Paul is going to draw it out. The squishes have no spines, at all, and this goes two ways. Incandescent anger, especially at Kaine and CCM/Rosen.