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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 52m

Haha funny you say that, in Spain I believe the polls say like 20-25% of young people are at least bi, so no one knows what the ceiling is

Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 1h

why are you against upzoning and dense transit-oriented development in Guantanamo Bay

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 2h

the thing is, we already do this in real studies, it always shows younger generations identifying as LGBTQ+ over time, even the damn American Enterprise Institute run by center-right wonks agrees

www.americansurveycenter.org/newsletter/w...

www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...

What’s Behind the Rapid Rise in LGBTQ Identity? - The Survey Center on American Life

Since 2012, Gallup has tracked the size of America’s LGBTQ population. For the first few years, there was not much news to report. The percentage of Americans who identified as gay, lesbian, bisexual,...

www.americansurveycenter.org

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 2h

yeah ideally you'd uh, do some more interviews instead of looking at 5-second Excel chart

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 2h

I mean, I would look at those numbers and say "maybe gender is even more of a social construct than we thought"

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 2h

perhaps. the issue I have with these is that instead of saying "wow, interesting, I should do more academic research into this topic", journalists can go "well trans was a fad, clearly"

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 2h

it seems like mostly noise, the article also mentioned that rates of gay/lesbian were about the same over time, but I have seen other studies that show that stat continues to rise over new cohorts of young people

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 2h

that's most social science data tbf

Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 2h

the maximal extent of Stancilism leads you to thinking the Weimar Republic fell because of vibes and not bc it had the Worst Economy of All Time

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 2h

eh, well it's entirely possible there was a response effect in these more conservative times, we don't know

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 2h

realistically the lines don't always go up and to the right indefinitely, we see pauses, so it's not impossible that we've seen a small drop in non-conforming gender identity, but you can't really say "well it's over"

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 2h

not making this up! I need to look at the data more

news.gallup.com/poll/656708/...

LGBTQ+ Identification in U.S. Rises to 9.3%

LGBTQ+ identification among U.S. adults has increased to 9.3%.

news.gallup.com

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 3h

There are whole discussion sections where people just argue about subjective anecdotes or the infamous "lived experience".

I still don't think Will's point about economics not having any relation to voting behavior is remotely true, but that trend toward anecdotes is incredibly annoying

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 3h

ok, hear me out, tracking sexual and gender identity is an interesting thing to track in surveys, Gallup has seen an unbroken steady increase in non-binary and LGBTQ+ youth, so I'm interested where this data is coming from

Guy Trivago @convolutedname.bsky.social · 4h

Frying brains online

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 3h

the NF Progressive Conservative Party's No. 1 platform pitch is "you can see a nurse for free now"

love it

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 3h

just ignore that the Progressive Conservatives of NF practically socialists at this point

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 3h

I should be the American version of JJ McCullough and praise Canada over the most banal shit. In Newfoundland, the Liberals have been in power since 2015 and are about to win their fourth election in a row! Amazing things are happening there

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 1d

I’m just arguing the dooming is logically inconsistent, unless you admit the propensity argument is wrong, you shouldn’t be dooming. Like the polls are close bc the electorates match 2024, which in theory shouldn’t work

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 1d

I don’t believe that propensity is linear (to me it’s still clearly curved), so therefore I don’t expect Spanberger by 20. But by propensity-based arguments, you should be expecting both electorates to be 7 pts left of 2024 like Wisconsin Supreme Court was (electorate was Harris+6)

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 1d

I feel like dooming about NJ and VA is logically inconsistent with all the linear propensity arguments from 2024. There should be nothing worse for a Trump-only voter turning out than an off-year non-federal election. By the theory of “high prop=Dem” these should be blowouts

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 1d

Bro made the same argument as Ron DeSantis

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 1d

I feel like being pro-Palestine on the left absolves you of so much, that DAW rant abt tenure was some of the most racist nonsense I’ve ever heard in my life but no one remembers

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 1d

what are we even doing here

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 1d

no one knows what Abundance is, no one knows what permitting reform is, no one knows how Zionism plays into it (or has a coherent view of political Zionism), let alone combining them into one.

Echelon did a poll and said 88% of people had never heard of "Abundance" lol

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 1d

oh, I saw what she said, I'm saying the Willett quote requires so much reading comprehension and knowledge of inter-left squabbles that it has lost all meaning

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