Centrist Reform Youth Party Chair
@corncobanalysis.bsky.social
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Don’t worry: my preferred candidate will become Democratic AMLO
Reposted by Centrist Reform Youth Party Chair
In 2021, 11 of the 12 months were revised upward in the initial revisions
In 2008, 11 of 12 were revised down but in 2010 11 of 12 were revised up
Directionality does tend to happen when there’s some underlying economic “event” happening, whether recovery or turmoil
Prob made worse by doge cuts
In 2008, 11 of 12 were revised down but in 2010 11 of 12 were revised up
Directionality does tend to happen when there’s some underlying economic “event” happening, whether recovery or turmoil
Prob made worse by doge cuts
February 11, 2026 at 8:37 PM
In 2021, 11 of the 12 months were revised upward in the initial revisions
In 2008, 11 of 12 were revised down but in 2010 11 of 12 were revised up
Directionality does tend to happen when there’s some underlying economic “event” happening, whether recovery or turmoil
Prob made worse by doge cuts
In 2008, 11 of 12 were revised down but in 2010 11 of 12 were revised up
Directionality does tend to happen when there’s some underlying economic “event” happening, whether recovery or turmoil
Prob made worse by doge cuts
Reposted by Centrist Reform Youth Party Chair
I'll put it this way: a wide range of ppl responding to a meh jobs report with "bullshit, no way this is real" is, near term, extremely bad for the current administration
People thinking the jobs report is fake is not limited to Bluesky, the entire FT comment section is saying it’s fake
(And it’s not fake, funnily enough.)
(And it’s not fake, funnily enough.)
February 11, 2026 at 8:20 PM
I'll put it this way: a wide range of ppl responding to a meh jobs report with "bullshit, no way this is real" is, near term, extremely bad for the current administration
People thinking the jobs report is fake is not limited to Bluesky, the entire FT comment section is saying it’s fake
(And it’s not fake, funnily enough.)
(And it’s not fake, funnily enough.)
February 11, 2026 at 8:18 PM
People thinking the jobs report is fake is not limited to Bluesky, the entire FT comment section is saying it’s fake
(And it’s not fake, funnily enough.)
(And it’s not fake, funnily enough.)
Interesting finding from NBC/SurveyMonkey on how very few people have protested ICE relative to their support in the public.
And this likely overindexes among politically engaged people, so the actual number of protest participants is even lower.
And this likely overindexes among politically engaged people, so the actual number of protest participants is even lower.
February 11, 2026 at 7:24 PM
Interesting finding from NBC/SurveyMonkey on how very few people have protested ICE relative to their support in the public.
And this likely overindexes among politically engaged people, so the actual number of protest participants is even lower.
And this likely overindexes among politically engaged people, so the actual number of protest participants is even lower.
Our lives would all probably improve slightly if Trump fired some of his Bad Boyars, which makes it all the more insane that no one has gotten fired.
February 11, 2026 at 7:21 PM
Our lives would all probably improve slightly if Trump fired some of his Bad Boyars, which makes it all the more insane that no one has gotten fired.
Reposted by Centrist Reform Youth Party Chair
I think this is a good explanation for why a lot of lefty people are so AI-hostile. bad timing had a lot of people's bullshit sensors flagging false positives (in a space that, complicating matters, had a non-trivial amount of real bullshit)
the immediately prior round of tech hype on social media being NFTs and bitcoin really miscalibrated a lot of people
February 11, 2026 at 6:48 PM
I think this is a good explanation for why a lot of lefty people are so AI-hostile. bad timing had a lot of people's bullshit sensors flagging false positives (in a space that, complicating matters, had a non-trivial amount of real bullshit)
This has happened nationally today, granted it's NBC/SurveyMonkey, but that's the best we're getting these days.
The sample went from Trump +1 in 2024 to Harris +8 today
So, nonvoters and some Trump voters are experiencing serious buyer's remorse.
legacy.www.documentcloud.org/documents/26...
The sample went from Trump +1 in 2024 to Harris +8 today
So, nonvoters and some Trump voters are experiencing serious buyer's remorse.
legacy.www.documentcloud.org/documents/26...
February 11, 2026 at 6:49 PM
This has happened nationally today, granted it's NBC/SurveyMonkey, but that's the best we're getting these days.
The sample went from Trump +1 in 2024 to Harris +8 today
So, nonvoters and some Trump voters are experiencing serious buyer's remorse.
legacy.www.documentcloud.org/documents/26...
The sample went from Trump +1 in 2024 to Harris +8 today
So, nonvoters and some Trump voters are experiencing serious buyer's remorse.
legacy.www.documentcloud.org/documents/26...
Reposted by Centrist Reform Youth Party Chair
Interesting q here: "If you could go back to November of 2024 and vote again, who would you vote for?"
Harris wins 48-37. She won Minnesota by ~51-47 in actuality, so this is almost 3 times her actual margin of victory.
Some people are having buyer's remorse, huh?
Harris wins 48-37. She won Minnesota by ~51-47 in actuality, so this is almost 3 times her actual margin of victory.
Some people are having buyer's remorse, huh?
February 11, 2026 at 6:34 PM
Interesting q here: "If you could go back to November of 2024 and vote again, who would you vote for?"
Harris wins 48-37. She won Minnesota by ~51-47 in actuality, so this is almost 3 times her actual margin of victory.
Some people are having buyer's remorse, huh?
Harris wins 48-37. She won Minnesota by ~51-47 in actuality, so this is almost 3 times her actual margin of victory.
Some people are having buyer's remorse, huh?
Replies and quotes to this are peak Bluesky reading comprehension
I understand why people are exhausted by AI hype, and why those of us squarely in the corner of "human dignity uber alles" see AI doomerism as self-serving hype, but I *really* think people on the left broadly need to start thinking seriously about the possibiltiy of the hype being...true.
February 11, 2026 at 5:52 PM
Replies and quotes to this are peak Bluesky reading comprehension
Reposted by Centrist Reform Youth Party Chair
The latest from YouGov (n ~ 7k) gives me some methodological concerns. They allowed people to rate their pun making as "outstanding" but, statistically, most are sitting indoors at the time
today.yougov.com/topics/socie...
today.yougov.com/topics/socie...
February 10, 2026 at 3:14 PM
The latest from YouGov (n ~ 7k) gives me some methodological concerns. They allowed people to rate their pun making as "outstanding" but, statistically, most are sitting indoors at the time
today.yougov.com/topics/socie...
today.yougov.com/topics/socie...
I just saw a Kazakh guy do his short program in a stillsuit to the Dune soundtrack, not sure US soft power is dead yet.
February 10, 2026 at 9:49 PM
I just saw a Kazakh guy do his short program in a stillsuit to the Dune soundtrack, not sure US soft power is dead yet.
So, the Mandelson scandal hasn’t moved the electorate at all. Insane.
UK (GB), YouGov poll:
REFORM~NI: 27% (+1)
LAB-S&D: 19%
CON~ECR: 18%
GREENS-G/EFA: 16% (-1)
LDEM-RE: 14%
SNP-G/EFA: 3%
PC-G/EFA: 2%
+/- vs. 01-02 February 2026
Fieldwork: 08-09 February 2026
Sample size: 2,466
➤ europeelects.eu/uk
REFORM~NI: 27% (+1)
LAB-S&D: 19%
CON~ECR: 18%
GREENS-G/EFA: 16% (-1)
LDEM-RE: 14%
SNP-G/EFA: 3%
PC-G/EFA: 2%
+/- vs. 01-02 February 2026
Fieldwork: 08-09 February 2026
Sample size: 2,466
➤ europeelects.eu/uk
February 10, 2026 at 8:50 PM
So, the Mandelson scandal hasn’t moved the electorate at all. Insane.
Reposted by Centrist Reform Youth Party Chair
core part of the ostensible economic justification for mass deportation was that Americans would rush in to take all the jobs immigrants left, but now unemployment rates for native born Americans are rising and the admin is sending people out to do damage control
February 10, 2026 at 2:28 PM
core part of the ostensible economic justification for mass deportation was that Americans would rush in to take all the jobs immigrants left, but now unemployment rates for native born Americans are rising and the admin is sending people out to do damage control
Reposted by Centrist Reform Youth Party Chair
It’s already been denied sadly
So apparently GOP Rep Dunn in FL02 might just be resigning imminently and can’t be found right now
February 10, 2026 at 7:49 PM
It’s already been denied sadly
AI-curious "shake up the system" Japanese youth voters are real and >> the left...I am ill.
February 10, 2026 at 7:45 PM
AI-curious "shake up the system" Japanese youth voters are real and >> the left...I am ill.
Reposted by Centrist Reform Youth Party Chair
i'm not saying that there's a perfect candidate for this race, BUT
February 10, 2026 at 7:42 PM
i'm not saying that there's a perfect candidate for this race, BUT
Reposted by Centrist Reform Youth Party Chair
can we bring back gwen graham for this
February 10, 2026 at 7:37 PM
can we bring back gwen graham for this
FL-02 is Trump +18, Scott +22, Dunn +23 (the House R)
Would be a borderline tossup if there's a special. But DeSantis can hold this seat open for a long time.
Would be a borderline tossup if there's a special. But DeSantis can hold this seat open for a long time.
February 10, 2026 at 7:35 PM
FL-02 is Trump +18, Scott +22, Dunn +23 (the House R)
Would be a borderline tossup if there's a special. But DeSantis can hold this seat open for a long time.
Would be a borderline tossup if there's a special. But DeSantis can hold this seat open for a long time.
Reposted by Centrist Reform Youth Party Chair
Interesting observation from @josephpolitano.bsky.social .
February 10, 2026 at 6:44 PM
Interesting observation from @josephpolitano.bsky.social .
Reposted by Centrist Reform Youth Party Chair
Reminder that Puerto voted in a 30% landslide in favor of statehood over any other status option that is neither territorial, nor colonial — with nearly equivalent turnout to the concurrent Governor election!
The 2024 Puerto Rico Status Plebiscite—a contest modeled after the Nydia Velazquez+AOC/Jenniffer Gonzalez Colón Compromise PR Status act's 1st round pitted the non-territorial/non-colonial options of Stathood, Independence with Sovereign Free Assosiation, and Full Independence against each other
February 10, 2026 at 5:38 AM
Reminder that Puerto voted in a 30% landslide in favor of statehood over any other status option that is neither territorial, nor colonial — with nearly equivalent turnout to the concurrent Governor election!
NV-02
2020: Trump +11
2022: Laxalt +11, Lombardo +14
2024: Trump +14, Brown +8
Insane what happened to Sam Brown here, that underperformance of Trump in NV-02 cost him the Senate seat. Now Brown may end up being the nominee for NV-02 in 2026.
2020: Trump +11
2022: Laxalt +11, Lombardo +14
2024: Trump +14, Brown +8
Insane what happened to Sam Brown here, that underperformance of Trump in NV-02 cost him the Senate seat. Now Brown may end up being the nominee for NV-02 in 2026.
February 10, 2026 at 4:25 AM
NV-02
2020: Trump +11
2022: Laxalt +11, Lombardo +14
2024: Trump +14, Brown +8
Insane what happened to Sam Brown here, that underperformance of Trump in NV-02 cost him the Senate seat. Now Brown may end up being the nominee for NV-02 in 2026.
2020: Trump +11
2022: Laxalt +11, Lombardo +14
2024: Trump +14, Brown +8
Insane what happened to Sam Brown here, that underperformance of Trump in NV-02 cost him the Senate seat. Now Brown may end up being the nominee for NV-02 in 2026.
Putin's regime lackeys have been conducting largely fake opinion polling for the Russian legislative election later this year. But, for reasons unknown, they are inexplicably showing some thermostatic backlash, with vote intention for United Russia down over the last few months.
February 10, 2026 at 4:14 AM
Putin's regime lackeys have been conducting largely fake opinion polling for the Russian legislative election later this year. But, for reasons unknown, they are inexplicably showing some thermostatic backlash, with vote intention for United Russia down over the last few months.
Reposted by Centrist Reform Youth Party Chair
one thing that will always be a mystery to me is the number of trump voters who basically thought they were electing george bush again reut.rs/3Mc4h4H
As Trump presidency enters second year, his voters share hopes – and concerns
Trump voters urge him to tone down the rhetoric and focus more on domestic issues, especially clearer pathways to legal status for law-abiding immigrants, healthcare reform, curbing waste and fraud, a...
reut.rs
February 10, 2026 at 3:50 AM
one thing that will always be a mystery to me is the number of trump voters who basically thought they were electing george bush again reut.rs/3Mc4h4H
Colombianos getting in on AtlasIntel crosstab hatred
February 10, 2026 at 4:04 AM
Colombianos getting in on AtlasIntel crosstab hatred
Is Matt Shaw even trying to be a major league player anymore?
February 10, 2026 at 12:57 AM
Is Matt Shaw even trying to be a major league player anymore?