Centrist Reform Youth Party Chair
@corncobanalysis.bsky.social
Pinned
Don’t worry: my preferred candidate will become Democratic AMLO
The Focaldata Dem primary crosstabs were interesting. To summarize
- Harris dominated younger voters, AOC was steady, but a clear second choice (is that name rec?)
- Newsom does best among older Dems
- Harris does worse as education increases
3959436.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/395943...
- Harris dominated younger voters, AOC was steady, but a clear second choice (is that name rec?)
- Newsom does best among older Dems
- Harris does worse as education increases
3959436.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/395943...
February 13, 2026 at 7:30 PM
The Focaldata Dem primary crosstabs were interesting. To summarize
- Harris dominated younger voters, AOC was steady, but a clear second choice (is that name rec?)
- Newsom does best among older Dems
- Harris does worse as education increases
3959436.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/395943...
- Harris dominated younger voters, AOC was steady, but a clear second choice (is that name rec?)
- Newsom does best among older Dems
- Harris does worse as education increases
3959436.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/395943...
So, not to be a downer or anything, but if AOC is going to run for president she must do better than gaining 19% in RCV vs. Newsom while Newsom gains 34%.
35% would be a tad better than Bernie 2020, but worse than Bernie 2016.
35% would be a tad better than Bernie 2020, but worse than Bernie 2016.
Without Harris, it’s more wide open, but Newsom defeats AOC in the ranked-choice round by 30. It is VERY early, so I wouldn’t take it too seriously, but it is what the poll says
Harris and AOC have the most supporter overlap. For Harris that’s mostly name rec, as you go up in engagement
Harris and AOC have the most supporter overlap. For Harris that’s mostly name rec, as you go up in engagement
February 13, 2026 at 6:32 PM
So, not to be a downer or anything, but if AOC is going to run for president she must do better than gaining 19% in RCV vs. Newsom while Newsom gains 34%.
35% would be a tad better than Bernie 2020, but worse than Bernie 2016.
35% would be a tad better than Bernie 2020, but worse than Bernie 2016.
Just in time for discourse bait, Harris is leading the Focaldata primary poll that came out
First choice: Harris 39%, Newsom 21%, AOC 10%, Pete and Shapiro 7%
But the most interesting part is the RCV
First choice: Harris 39%, Newsom 21%, AOC 10%, Pete and Shapiro 7%
But the most interesting part is the RCV
February 13, 2026 at 6:23 PM
Just in time for discourse bait, Harris is leading the Focaldata primary poll that came out
First choice: Harris 39%, Newsom 21%, AOC 10%, Pete and Shapiro 7%
But the most interesting part is the RCV
First choice: Harris 39%, Newsom 21%, AOC 10%, Pete and Shapiro 7%
But the most interesting part is the RCV
charts from the Focaldata poll showing the economy and cost of living continue to hurt Trump the most, while immigration has also increased in effect (in their Jan poll it was less)
www.focaldata.com/blog/cost-of...
www.focaldata.com/blog/cost-of...
February 13, 2026 at 6:20 PM
charts from the Focaldata poll showing the economy and cost of living continue to hurt Trump the most, while immigration has also increased in effect (in their Jan poll it was less)
www.focaldata.com/blog/cost-of...
www.focaldata.com/blog/cost-of...
Lots of room for undecideds to break a certain direction here
🇺🇸 First Focaldata midterms polling of 2026
House of Representatives congressional vote
All adults
🔵 Democrats: 42%
🔴 Republicans: 38%
Registered voters
🔵 Democrats: 46%
🔴 Republicans: 42%
Likely voters
🔵 Democrats: 51%
🔴 Republicans: 44%
www.focaldata.com/blog/cost-of...
House of Representatives congressional vote
All adults
🔵 Democrats: 42%
🔴 Republicans: 38%
Registered voters
🔵 Democrats: 46%
🔴 Republicans: 42%
Likely voters
🔵 Democrats: 51%
🔴 Republicans: 44%
www.focaldata.com/blog/cost-of...
Cost of living fuelling Democrat strength in new midterms polling
Economic concerns are set to give the Democrats an extra 2.5 million votes in November
www.focaldata.com
February 13, 2026 at 6:04 PM
Lots of room for undecideds to break a certain direction here
they’re calling it the most telegraphed presidential run ever
February 13, 2026 at 6:29 AM
they’re calling it the most telegraphed presidential run ever
Worst Person You Know Makes Great Arrest
The Tel Aviv indictment is the first publicly known instance of people being accused of leveraging military secrets to place bets on the popular prediction market. n.pr/4kvG3yW
Israel accuses two of using military secrets to place Polymarket bets
The Tel Aviv indictment is the first publicly known instance of people being accused of leveraging military secrets to place bets on the popular prediction market.
n.pr
February 13, 2026 at 2:05 AM
Worst Person You Know Makes Great Arrest
Reposted by Centrist Reform Youth Party Chair
Totally vibes-based “you’re not even from here” rankings
1. Michigan
2. Maine
3. Ohio
4. Wisconsin
5. Minnesota
6. Pennsylvania
7. Montana
8. Kentucky
9. Indiana
10. New Hampshire
1. Michigan
2. Maine
3. Ohio
4. Wisconsin
5. Minnesota
6. Pennsylvania
7. Montana
8. Kentucky
9. Indiana
10. New Hampshire
February 13, 2026 at 1:17 AM
Totally vibes-based “you’re not even from here” rankings
1. Michigan
2. Maine
3. Ohio
4. Wisconsin
5. Minnesota
6. Pennsylvania
7. Montana
8. Kentucky
9. Indiana
10. New Hampshire
1. Michigan
2. Maine
3. Ohio
4. Wisconsin
5. Minnesota
6. Pennsylvania
7. Montana
8. Kentucky
9. Indiana
10. New Hampshire
It’s very odd what US states have carpetbagging penalties and which don’t. No one cares if you moved to Florida or Arizona yesterday, but if you try and run in a Rust Belt or Midwest state without living there for 10+ years, you pay a penalty.
February 13, 2026 at 1:14 AM
It’s very odd what US states have carpetbagging penalties and which don’t. No one cares if you moved to Florida or Arizona yesterday, but if you try and run in a Rust Belt or Midwest state without living there for 10+ years, you pay a penalty.
Oh, also, carpetbagging penalties are still a real thing.
Daniel Biss just dropped a new internal poll in #IL09. Shows him at 31% and Laura Fine/Kat Abu slugging it out for second at 18%.
February 13, 2026 at 1:09 AM
Oh, also, carpetbagging penalties are still a real thing.
I was mistakenly contacted for this internal and did not give fake data. Please clap.
Daniel Biss just dropped a new internal poll in #IL09. Shows him at 31% and Laura Fine/Kat Abu slugging it out for second at 18%.
February 13, 2026 at 12:55 AM
I was mistakenly contacted for this internal and did not give fake data. Please clap.
In my ongoing series of how Liberation Day was such a disaster for the US economy
Very suspicious drop in oil rig counts right after April 2025. Correlation, not causation, but…insane how many charts are showing this
Very suspicious drop in oil rig counts right after April 2025. Correlation, not causation, but…insane how many charts are showing this
February 13, 2026 at 12:53 AM
In my ongoing series of how Liberation Day was such a disaster for the US economy
Very suspicious drop in oil rig counts right after April 2025. Correlation, not causation, but…insane how many charts are showing this
Very suspicious drop in oil rig counts right after April 2025. Correlation, not causation, but…insane how many charts are showing this
There’s a nonzero chance AOC runs and then drops to Senate later like Rubio did. New York primary deadline is March 30.
Also, progs doing well in primaries for 2026 is a bit of a pre-requisite.
Also, progs doing well in primaries for 2026 is a bit of a pre-requisite.
I unfortunately think that AOC is at a similar risk of getting nuked by NYT/Siena in January like Newsom.
And maybe voters in the primary electorate won’t care. But that is a big if.
And maybe voters in the primary electorate won’t care. But that is a big if.
February 12, 2026 at 10:52 PM
There’s a nonzero chance AOC runs and then drops to Senate later like Rubio did. New York primary deadline is March 30.
Also, progs doing well in primaries for 2026 is a bit of a pre-requisite.
Also, progs doing well in primaries for 2026 is a bit of a pre-requisite.
I unfortunately think that AOC is at a similar risk of getting nuked by NYT/Siena in January like Newsom.
And maybe voters in the primary electorate won’t care. But that is a big if.
And maybe voters in the primary electorate won’t care. But that is a big if.
February 12, 2026 at 10:35 PM
I unfortunately think that AOC is at a similar risk of getting nuked by NYT/Siena in January like Newsom.
And maybe voters in the primary electorate won’t care. But that is a big if.
And maybe voters in the primary electorate won’t care. But that is a big if.
Why aren’t NH Dems capable of finding a replacement-level governor candidate? It’s been a decade.
February 12, 2026 at 10:05 PM
Why aren’t NH Dems capable of finding a replacement-level governor candidate? It’s been a decade.
Speaking of AIPAC, George Latimer has honestly been a weird case bc his voting record has been to the left of Nadler, Angie Craig, Ami Bera and a bunch of other normie Dems.
Latimer voted no on Laken Riley
Latimer voted no on Laken Riley
February 12, 2026 at 6:48 PM
Speaking of AIPAC, George Latimer has honestly been a weird case bc his voting record has been to the left of Nadler, Angie Craig, Ami Bera and a bunch of other normie Dems.
Latimer voted no on Laken Riley
Latimer voted no on Laken Riley
Oh, I was initially assuming this post was about Stephen Douglas…you hate to see that she misspelled Douglass too
Bluesky "leftist": "Frederick Douglass wasn't literate enough to read and understand the Constitution. I am very smart and woke."
Doing great folks, just great.
Doing great folks, just great.
February 12, 2026 at 6:23 PM
Oh, I was initially assuming this post was about Stephen Douglas…you hate to see that she misspelled Douglass too
Reposted by Centrist Reform Youth Party Chair
In addition to seeing how post-Liberation Day saw hiring flatline, I also noticed on Indeed's dataset that April 2025 was when wage growth started to go nearly to pandemic levels.
(having these thoughts at 2 AM ET is not healthy, idea stolen from @jhweissmann.bsky.social on the other site)
(having these thoughts at 2 AM ET is not healthy, idea stolen from @jhweissmann.bsky.social on the other site)
February 12, 2026 at 6:54 AM
In addition to seeing how post-Liberation Day saw hiring flatline, I also noticed on Indeed's dataset that April 2025 was when wage growth started to go nearly to pandemic levels.
(having these thoughts at 2 AM ET is not healthy, idea stolen from @jhweissmann.bsky.social on the other site)
(having these thoughts at 2 AM ET is not healthy, idea stolen from @jhweissmann.bsky.social on the other site)
In addition to seeing how post-Liberation Day saw hiring flatline, I also noticed on Indeed's dataset that April 2025 was when wage growth started to go nearly to pandemic levels.
(having these thoughts at 2 AM ET is not healthy, idea stolen from @jhweissmann.bsky.social on the other site)
(having these thoughts at 2 AM ET is not healthy, idea stolen from @jhweissmann.bsky.social on the other site)
February 12, 2026 at 6:54 AM
In addition to seeing how post-Liberation Day saw hiring flatline, I also noticed on Indeed's dataset that April 2025 was when wage growth started to go nearly to pandemic levels.
(having these thoughts at 2 AM ET is not healthy, idea stolen from @jhweissmann.bsky.social on the other site)
(having these thoughts at 2 AM ET is not healthy, idea stolen from @jhweissmann.bsky.social on the other site)
People know Vance underperformed vs. Ryan, but only getting 32% with Trump’s endorsement against Josh “LIBERAL THANKSGIVING” Mandel and two boring rich guys is another horrific electoral showing.
Gibbons not dropping out and giving Vance a win with 32% cursed us for eternity.
February 12, 2026 at 6:42 AM
People know Vance underperformed vs. Ryan, but only getting 32% with Trump’s endorsement against Josh “LIBERAL THANKSGIVING” Mandel and two boring rich guys is another horrific electoral showing.
Reposted by Centrist Reform Youth Party Chair
Do you like talking about politics, elections, or random happenings in the world? Then you should join our Discord! It's an active community where you can be kept up to date on every random election, or even play games (Victoria 3 lately)
LINK: discord.gg/5h5GjNVrQw
LINK: discord.gg/5h5GjNVrQw
Join the ElectionCord Discord Server!
ElectionCord is a community server revolving primarily around politics. | 582 members
discord.gg
February 12, 2026 at 2:37 AM
Do you like talking about politics, elections, or random happenings in the world? Then you should join our Discord! It's an active community where you can be kept up to date on every random election, or even play games (Victoria 3 lately)
LINK: discord.gg/5h5GjNVrQw
LINK: discord.gg/5h5GjNVrQw
The Republicans not breaking with Trump during this Congress, for the most part, is just polarization. I wouldn’t draw too many ideological crusades from it. We did the same in 21-22
February 12, 2026 at 12:26 AM
The Republicans not breaking with Trump during this Congress, for the most part, is just polarization. I wouldn’t draw too many ideological crusades from it. We did the same in 21-22
Golden should actually get kicked out of the caucus for voting for Canada tariffs.
February 12, 2026 at 12:12 AM
Golden should actually get kicked out of the caucus for voting for Canada tariffs.
Reposted by Centrist Reform Youth Party Chair
In 2021, 11 of the 12 months were revised upward in the initial revisions
In 2008, 11 of 12 were revised down but in 2010 11 of 12 were revised up
Directionality does tend to happen when there’s some underlying economic “event” happening, whether recovery or turmoil
Prob made worse by doge cuts
In 2008, 11 of 12 were revised down but in 2010 11 of 12 were revised up
Directionality does tend to happen when there’s some underlying economic “event” happening, whether recovery or turmoil
Prob made worse by doge cuts
February 11, 2026 at 8:37 PM
In 2021, 11 of the 12 months were revised upward in the initial revisions
In 2008, 11 of 12 were revised down but in 2010 11 of 12 were revised up
Directionality does tend to happen when there’s some underlying economic “event” happening, whether recovery or turmoil
Prob made worse by doge cuts
In 2008, 11 of 12 were revised down but in 2010 11 of 12 were revised up
Directionality does tend to happen when there’s some underlying economic “event” happening, whether recovery or turmoil
Prob made worse by doge cuts
Reposted by Centrist Reform Youth Party Chair
I'll put it this way: a wide range of ppl responding to a meh jobs report with "bullshit, no way this is real" is, near term, extremely bad for the current administration
People thinking the jobs report is fake is not limited to Bluesky, the entire FT comment section is saying it’s fake
(And it’s not fake, funnily enough.)
(And it’s not fake, funnily enough.)
February 11, 2026 at 8:20 PM
I'll put it this way: a wide range of ppl responding to a meh jobs report with "bullshit, no way this is real" is, near term, extremely bad for the current administration