ElectionCord
@electioncord.com
US Political Consulting & Analysis Through a Demographic Lens
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Texas Senate 9 Election Reaction: What Does this Mean for the Midterms? – ELECTIONCORD
electioncord.com
NEW ARTICLE OUT: We wanted to do a quick article talking about the shocking result in the special election for Texas's 9th Senate District, and the chances of Democrats winning states like Texas in 2026.
LINK: electioncord.com/texas-senate...
LINK: electioncord.com/texas-senate...
This is a look at the different of President Trump's approval by demographic between one year ago, and today, 2/8/26. Trump has declined with every major demographic since then, particularly with 18-29 and independents.
February 8, 2026 at 10:49 PM
This is a look at the different of President Trump's approval by demographic between one year ago, and today, 2/8/26. Trump has declined with every major demographic since then, particularly with 18-29 and independents.
President Trump has been in office for about a year, so here’s a look at his approval of major issues from one year ago to today. He’s doing at least 15% worse for every issue compared to this time last year, with particularly large drops regarding economy, foreign policy, and inflation.
February 7, 2026 at 9:47 PM
President Trump has been in office for about a year, so here’s a look at his approval of major issues from one year ago to today. He’s doing at least 15% worse for every issue compared to this time last year, with particularly large drops regarding economy, foreign policy, and inflation.
Reposted by ElectionCord
john thune, welcome to the resistance thehill.com/homenews/sen...
February 3, 2026 at 9:08 PM
john thune, welcome to the resistance thehill.com/homenews/sen...
The new @yougov.co.uk and @economist.com poll had a series of questions about whether certain types of illegal immigrants should be deported or not. There's only an appetite to deport those who have committed violent crimes, which is shockingly not what the Trump administration is doing.
February 3, 2026 at 7:57 PM
The new @yougov.co.uk and @economist.com poll had a series of questions about whether certain types of illegal immigrants should be deported or not. There's only an appetite to deport those who have committed violent crimes, which is shockingly not what the Trump administration is doing.
ICYMI: We released an article yesterday detailing what happened in Saturday's Special Election for State Senate, and what it may mean for Texas and the nation as a whole in 2026.
NEW ARTICLE OUT: We wanted to do a quick article talking about the shocking result in the special election for Texas's 9th Senate District, and the chances of Democrats winning states like Texas in 2026.
LINK: electioncord.com/texas-senate...
LINK: electioncord.com/texas-senate...
Texas Senate 9 Election Reaction: What Does this Mean for the Midterms? – ELECTIONCORD
electioncord.com
February 3, 2026 at 1:32 AM
ICYMI: We released an article yesterday detailing what happened in Saturday's Special Election for State Senate, and what it may mean for Texas and the nation as a whole in 2026.
Reposted by ElectionCord
NEW ARTICLE OUT: We wanted to do a quick article talking about the shocking result in the special election for Texas's 9th Senate District, and the chances of Democrats winning states like Texas in 2026.
LINK: electioncord.com/texas-senate...
LINK: electioncord.com/texas-senate...
Texas Senate 9 Election Reaction: What Does this Mean for the Midterms? – ELECTIONCORD
electioncord.com
February 1, 2026 at 11:51 PM
NEW ARTICLE OUT: We wanted to do a quick article talking about the shocking result in the special election for Texas's 9th Senate District, and the chances of Democrats winning states like Texas in 2026.
LINK: electioncord.com/texas-senate...
LINK: electioncord.com/texas-senate...
NEW ARTICLE OUT: We wanted to do a quick article talking about the shocking result in the special election for Texas's 9th Senate District, and the chances of Democrats winning states like Texas in 2026.
LINK: electioncord.com/texas-senate...
LINK: electioncord.com/texas-senate...
Texas Senate 9 Election Reaction: What Does this Mean for the Midterms? – ELECTIONCORD
electioncord.com
February 1, 2026 at 11:51 PM
NEW ARTICLE OUT: We wanted to do a quick article talking about the shocking result in the special election for Texas's 9th Senate District, and the chances of Democrats winning states like Texas in 2026.
LINK: electioncord.com/texas-senate...
LINK: electioncord.com/texas-senate...
President 2024 (Left) vs State Senate 2026 (Right) By Precinct/Block Group for Texas 9th.
February 1, 2026 at 8:06 PM
President 2024 (Left) vs State Senate 2026 (Right) By Precinct/Block Group for Texas 9th.
Reposted by ElectionCord
“I don’t know anything about it” says the guy who posted 3x about it on Friday and Saturday
February 1, 2026 at 5:56 PM
“I don’t know anything about it” says the guy who posted 3x about it on Friday and Saturday
Mind you, this would be a D+30 shift from President 2024, given it is low turnout, BUT it's also a pretty big sample size. These are the type of districts that Democrats will want to do well in if they want Texas to be competitive in the near future.
We are now up to 20% of precincts + all early vote reporting in the Texas #SD09 (Trump+17) special election:
Taylor Rehmet (D)- 56.6%
Leigh Wambsganss (R)- 43.4%
The Democratic lead continues to grow...
Taylor Rehmet (D)- 56.6%
Leigh Wambsganss (R)- 43.4%
The Democratic lead continues to grow...
February 1, 2026 at 4:34 AM
Mind you, this would be a D+30 shift from President 2024, given it is low turnout, BUT it's also a pretty big sample size. These are the type of districts that Democrats will want to do well in if they want Texas to be competitive in the near future.
Some quick stats about this district:
57% White, 29% Hispanic
34% Bachelor's %
Household Income: $107K
By Year:
2024: R+17
2020: R+13
Senate 2018: R+13
2016: R+24
It's not particularly educated, but decently Hispanic, but also the type of area that shifted hard to the left between 2016-2020.
57% White, 29% Hispanic
34% Bachelor's %
Household Income: $107K
By Year:
2024: R+17
2020: R+13
Senate 2018: R+13
2016: R+24
It's not particularly educated, but decently Hispanic, but also the type of area that shifted hard to the left between 2016-2020.
We are very much in upset territory in the Texas #SD09 (Trump+17) special election. Early vote just dropped:
Taylor Rehmet (D)- 56.2%
Leigh Wambsganss (R)- 43.8%
Given that the early vote usually makes up a good chunk of the final vote, I think the Dems will win this one.
Taylor Rehmet (D)- 56.2%
Leigh Wambsganss (R)- 43.8%
Given that the early vote usually makes up a good chunk of the final vote, I think the Dems will win this one.
February 1, 2026 at 1:37 AM
Some quick stats about this district:
57% White, 29% Hispanic
34% Bachelor's %
Household Income: $107K
By Year:
2024: R+17
2020: R+13
Senate 2018: R+13
2016: R+24
It's not particularly educated, but decently Hispanic, but also the type of area that shifted hard to the left between 2016-2020.
57% White, 29% Hispanic
34% Bachelor's %
Household Income: $107K
By Year:
2024: R+17
2020: R+13
Senate 2018: R+13
2016: R+24
It's not particularly educated, but decently Hispanic, but also the type of area that shifted hard to the left between 2016-2020.
Reposted by ElectionCord
Illinois, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire.
Keeps 1 in the Midwest, 1 in the South, 1 in the West, and 1 in the Northeast.
Illinois is most similar to the nation demographically. The other 3 are states are kinda swing states (margins in NH are often small even if we consistently win it).
Keeps 1 in the Midwest, 1 in the South, 1 in the West, and 1 in the Northeast.
Illinois is most similar to the nation demographically. The other 3 are states are kinda swing states (margins in NH are often small even if we consistently win it).
January 31, 2026 at 8:00 PM
Illinois, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire.
Keeps 1 in the Midwest, 1 in the South, 1 in the West, and 1 in the Northeast.
Illinois is most similar to the nation demographically. The other 3 are states are kinda swing states (margins in NH are often small even if we consistently win it).
Keeps 1 in the Midwest, 1 in the South, 1 in the West, and 1 in the Northeast.
Illinois is most similar to the nation demographically. The other 3 are states are kinda swing states (margins in NH are often small even if we consistently win it).
Reposted by ElectionCord
I think IL should be one of the first. Illinois is closest demographically to the US as a whole in terms of ratios.
January 31, 2026 at 7:38 PM
I think IL should be one of the first. Illinois is closest demographically to the US as a whole in terms of ratios.
Reposted by ElectionCord
North Carolina, anyone?
What state(s) do you think should go first/early in the primaries in 2028? Or alternatively, what do you think makes a good early primary state?
January 31, 2026 at 7:38 PM
North Carolina, anyone?
What state(s) do you think should go first/early in the primaries in 2028? Or alternatively, what do you think makes a good early primary state?
January 31, 2026 at 7:31 PM
What state(s) do you think should go first/early in the primaries in 2028? Or alternatively, what do you think makes a good early primary state?
There's a decent case to be made that every single one of these questions should go down the next time they ask it...
Benchmarking public opinion on Trump's DOJ arresting Don Lemon: An ABC News poll last Sept found 36% of Americans think Trump "is committed" to protecting the freedom of the press. Now we see how much/if that falls... substack.com/@gelliottmor...
January 30, 2026 at 5:37 PM
There's a decent case to be made that every single one of these questions should go down the next time they ask it...
Reposted by ElectionCord
More than five years after President Trump lost the 2020 election, he and his administration are still pursuing baseless conspiracy theories in an attempt to prove otherwise.
How Trump’s 2020 Election Claims Have Been Debunked Again and Again
The Trump administration has recently escalated its efforts to prove widespread voter fraud in 2020. Election officials and top Republicans have repeatedly said these claims are baseless.
nyti.ms
January 29, 2026 at 11:50 PM
More than five years after President Trump lost the 2020 election, he and his administration are still pursuing baseless conspiracy theories in an attempt to prove otherwise.
Reposted by ElectionCord
The last 4 polls in our race.
I’m up 2 points but Alaska is a ranked choice voting state so we need to push for well past 50%.
So if you can, you should chip in $2 or $4 (or even $50 😮) to power our fight for fish, family, freedom – and against DC's rigged system.
Link below!
I’m up 2 points but Alaska is a ranked choice voting state so we need to push for well past 50%.
So if you can, you should chip in $2 or $4 (or even $50 😮) to power our fight for fish, family, freedom – and against DC's rigged system.
Link below!
January 29, 2026 at 11:17 PM
The last 4 polls in our race.
I’m up 2 points but Alaska is a ranked choice voting state so we need to push for well past 50%.
So if you can, you should chip in $2 or $4 (or even $50 😮) to power our fight for fish, family, freedom – and against DC's rigged system.
Link below!
I’m up 2 points but Alaska is a ranked choice voting state so we need to push for well past 50%.
So if you can, you should chip in $2 or $4 (or even $50 😮) to power our fight for fish, family, freedom – and against DC's rigged system.
Link below!
The last Pew poll to show him as unpopular as in this poll (-24), was the poll taken from January 8th-12th 2021, when according to him, nothing happened
Pew has Trump's approval at 37%. And:
"Only about a quarter of Americans today (27%) say they support all or most of Trump’s policies and plans, down from 35% when he returned to office last year. That change has come entirely among Republicans."
www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...
"Only about a quarter of Americans today (27%) say they support all or most of Trump’s policies and plans, down from 35% when he returned to office last year. That change has come entirely among Republicans."
www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...
Confidence in Trump Dips, and Fewer Now Say They Support His Policies and Plans
Only 27% of Americans say they support all or most of Trump's policies – down since last year, with the change coming entirely among Republicans.
www.pewresearch.org
January 29, 2026 at 8:42 PM
The last Pew poll to show him as unpopular as in this poll (-24), was the poll taken from January 8th-12th 2021, when according to him, nothing happened
Reposted by ElectionCord
So, on today's poll from The Argument, we saw the following age splits for the generic ballot (RV + leaners):
Overall: D+4
18-29: D+16
30-44: D+8
45-64: R+6
65+: D+4
Gen X notably stands out as more Republican than any other group. Tracks with what we've seen on our average
@electioncord.com
Overall: D+4
18-29: D+16
30-44: D+8
45-64: R+6
65+: D+4
Gen X notably stands out as more Republican than any other group. Tracks with what we've seen on our average
@electioncord.com
January 29, 2026 at 6:48 PM
So, on today's poll from The Argument, we saw the following age splits for the generic ballot (RV + leaners):
Overall: D+4
18-29: D+16
30-44: D+8
45-64: R+6
65+: D+4
Gen X notably stands out as more Republican than any other group. Tracks with what we've seen on our average
@electioncord.com
Overall: D+4
18-29: D+16
30-44: D+8
45-64: R+6
65+: D+4
Gen X notably stands out as more Republican than any other group. Tracks with what we've seen on our average
@electioncord.com
We do keep track of Party ID in polls, I would take it with a couple grains of salt, but generally, Dems have been either even or slightly ahead like CornCob says.
LINK: electioncord.com/other-pollin...
LINK: electioncord.com/other-pollin...
January 28, 2026 at 10:39 PM
We do keep track of Party ID in polls, I would take it with a couple grains of salt, but generally, Dems have been either even or slightly ahead like CornCob says.
LINK: electioncord.com/other-pollin...
LINK: electioncord.com/other-pollin...
Honestly, the only reason I suspect Trump's overall approval is comparable to his first term is because poll samples have a lot more Republicans in them NOW than in 2017-2018. Of course, I think there are also more Republicans now, but it's interesting to see the Indy approval so low.
Donald Trump's support from independents hits a new low.
(@dhmontgomery.com and @taylororth.bsky.social, @today.yougov.com)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/260128
(@dhmontgomery.com and @taylororth.bsky.social, @today.yougov.com)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/260128
January 28, 2026 at 10:31 PM
Honestly, the only reason I suspect Trump's overall approval is comparable to his first term is because poll samples have a lot more Republicans in them NOW than in 2017-2018. Of course, I think there are also more Republicans now, but it's interesting to see the Indy approval so low.
Reposted by ElectionCord
Hello new followers if you like the skeets help us beat the fascists in Utah
We’re very close to the goal!
secure.actblue.com/donate/purrtah
We’re very close to the goal!
secure.actblue.com/donate/purrtah
Chip in!
Show your support with a contribution.
secure.actblue.com
January 28, 2026 at 3:54 AM
Hello new followers if you like the skeets help us beat the fascists in Utah
We’re very close to the goal!
secure.actblue.com/donate/purrtah
We’re very close to the goal!
secure.actblue.com/donate/purrtah
With midterms starting to ramp up, we want to help YOU and YOUR CAMPAIGN WIN! Using our demographic focused strategies, we can maximize your resources to get every vote possible. You can see what we can do for you with our Sample Strategy.
LINK: electioncord.com/sample-strat...
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LINK: electioncord.com/sample-strat...
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Sample Strategy For A Congressional Race – ELECTIONCORD
electioncord.com
January 27, 2026 at 10:31 PM
With midterms starting to ramp up, we want to help YOU and YOUR CAMPAIGN WIN! Using our demographic focused strategies, we can maximize your resources to get every vote possible. You can see what we can do for you with our Sample Strategy.
LINK: electioncord.com/sample-strat...
(1/2)
LINK: electioncord.com/sample-strat...
(1/2)
Reposted by ElectionCord
The Washington Post has the best sports section in the country, and I don’t think it’s particularly close. Only a soulless corporate goon would think the paper is better without it. A short-sighted, cowardly decision. Shame is your legacy.
January 27, 2026 at 5:57 PM
The Washington Post has the best sports section in the country, and I don’t think it’s particularly close. Only a soulless corporate goon would think the paper is better without it. A short-sighted, cowardly decision. Shame is your legacy.