ElectionCord
@electioncord.com
US Political Consulting & Analysis Through a Demographic Lens
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https://electioncord.com/
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https://electioncord.com/
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NEW: Our generic ballot averages, complete with demographic averages, are now OUT! In addition to the overall average, we also have party registration, 2024 vote, ideology, ethnicity, age, and education.
LINK: electioncord.com/generic-ball...
LINK: electioncord.com/generic-ball...
This is our Generic Ballot average by party registration. as of 12/15/25. One thing to note is that Democrats are winning independents by 13%, despite only being up around 4% as a whole. (Thread)
December 15, 2025 at 10:24 PM
This is our Generic Ballot average by party registration. as of 12/15/25. One thing to note is that Democrats are winning independents by 13%, despite only being up around 4% as a whole. (Thread)
Reposted by ElectionCord
Really enjoy the people in the comments who don’t realize people in fact do switch their votes like what happened in 2024 and then in 2025 and that in a red leaning state you do in fact need to win over some Republicans
Texas Dems:
"Who'd be more successful in mobilizing Dem-leaning non-voting Texans to turn out for them?"
Crockett: 53%
Talarico: 34%
"Who'd be more successful in convincing Texans who regularly vote GOP to vote for them?"
Talarico: 58%
Crockett: 29%
Texas Southern U. / Dec 11, 2025
"Who'd be more successful in mobilizing Dem-leaning non-voting Texans to turn out for them?"
Crockett: 53%
Talarico: 34%
"Who'd be more successful in convincing Texans who regularly vote GOP to vote for them?"
Talarico: 58%
Crockett: 29%
Texas Southern U. / Dec 11, 2025
December 14, 2025 at 7:08 PM
Really enjoy the people in the comments who don’t realize people in fact do switch their votes like what happened in 2024 and then in 2025 and that in a red leaning state you do in fact need to win over some Republicans
Respectfully, what is this question
December 14, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Respectfully, what is this question
This poll is pretty interesting, but also confirms certain assumptions we have had about candidates like Crockett and Talarico. Even if Talarico might be the more progressive candidate, he also is seen as the candidate with more crossover appeal to moderates and conservatives. (1/2)
Texas - Democratic Senate Polling Leads:
All: 🔵 Crockett +8
Men: 🟢 Talarico +10
Women: 🔵 Crockett: +21
18-34 Year Olds: 🟢 Talarico +29
35-44 Year Olds: 🟢 Talarico +9
55+ Year Olds: 🔵 Crockett +25
Texas Southern U. / Dec 11, 2025
All: 🔵 Crockett +8
Men: 🟢 Talarico +10
Women: 🔵 Crockett: +21
18-34 Year Olds: 🟢 Talarico +29
35-44 Year Olds: 🟢 Talarico +9
55+ Year Olds: 🔵 Crockett +25
Texas Southern U. / Dec 11, 2025
December 13, 2025 at 3:50 AM
This poll is pretty interesting, but also confirms certain assumptions we have had about candidates like Crockett and Talarico. Even if Talarico might be the more progressive candidate, he also is seen as the candidate with more crossover appeal to moderates and conservatives. (1/2)
Reposted by ElectionCord
A nice figure by @gelliottmorris.com summarizing Trump approval by respondent issue priority. Trump is net positive on issues that only 19% of respondents rank as top priority (border, crime, immigration).
December 12, 2025 at 8:10 PM
A nice figure by @gelliottmorris.com summarizing Trump approval by respondent issue priority. Trump is net positive on issues that only 19% of respondents rank as top priority (border, crime, immigration).
Reposted by ElectionCord
Indiana’s Senate has voted AGAINST the GOP gerrymander that’d have locked in a 9-0 map.
This keeps the 7-2 map in place, saving two Democratic seats heading into 2026.
The vote failed big, 19/31.
The MAJORITY of the GOP senators opposed it!
This keeps the 7-2 map in place, saving two Democratic seats heading into 2026.
The vote failed big, 19/31.
The MAJORITY of the GOP senators opposed it!
December 11, 2025 at 9:38 PM
Indiana’s Senate has voted AGAINST the GOP gerrymander that’d have locked in a 9-0 map.
This keeps the 7-2 map in place, saving two Democratic seats heading into 2026.
The vote failed big, 19/31.
The MAJORITY of the GOP senators opposed it!
This keeps the 7-2 map in place, saving two Democratic seats heading into 2026.
The vote failed big, 19/31.
The MAJORITY of the GOP senators opposed it!
Reposted by ElectionCord
Declines in Trump favorables for non-college Whites are arguably even more dangerous for GOP seats than nonwhites.
@electioncord.com averages have less-educated voters showing larger approval declines. Trump is getting a more gradual erosion w/Whites, but it's still erosion.
@electioncord.com averages have less-educated voters showing larger approval declines. Trump is getting a more gradual erosion w/Whites, but it's still erosion.
December 11, 2025 at 8:35 PM
Declines in Trump favorables for non-college Whites are arguably even more dangerous for GOP seats than nonwhites.
@electioncord.com averages have less-educated voters showing larger approval declines. Trump is getting a more gradual erosion w/Whites, but it's still erosion.
@electioncord.com averages have less-educated voters showing larger approval declines. Trump is getting a more gradual erosion w/Whites, but it's still erosion.
What can you conclude from this? I think generally, younger and poorer people tend to be more unsure of where their support will lie, while older and wealthier people will tend to be a more concrete voting block. Keep in mind not only is D vs R relevant, but voting vs not voting is just as relevant.
In the latest YouGov survey, they asked about how participants will vote in 2026. I thought it would be interesting to look at what percentage of each demographic chose something other than Dems/Reps. Thought the results were pretty interesting, especially that 18-29 number.
December 11, 2025 at 7:45 PM
What can you conclude from this? I think generally, younger and poorer people tend to be more unsure of where their support will lie, while older and wealthier people will tend to be a more concrete voting block. Keep in mind not only is D vs R relevant, but voting vs not voting is just as relevant.
In the latest YouGov survey, they asked about how participants will vote in 2026. I thought it would be interesting to look at what percentage of each demographic chose something other than Dems/Reps. Thought the results were pretty interesting, especially that 18-29 number.
December 11, 2025 at 5:50 AM
In the latest YouGov survey, they asked about how participants will vote in 2026. I thought it would be interesting to look at what percentage of each demographic chose something other than Dems/Reps. Thought the results were pretty interesting, especially that 18-29 number.
Reposted by ElectionCord
If you're running for ANY level of office in the US in 2026, contact us! We will help you run your campaign smoothly, using demographic analysis to ensure that you have the best chance of winning as possible.
Our Sample Strategy: electioncord.com/sample-strat...
Contact us at ⤵️
Our Sample Strategy: electioncord.com/sample-strat...
Contact us at ⤵️
December 10, 2025 at 11:40 PM
If you're running for ANY level of office in the US in 2026, contact us! We will help you run your campaign smoothly, using demographic analysis to ensure that you have the best chance of winning as possible.
Our Sample Strategy: electioncord.com/sample-strat...
Contact us at ⤵️
Our Sample Strategy: electioncord.com/sample-strat...
Contact us at ⤵️
If you're running for ANY level of office in the US in 2026, contact us! We will help you run your campaign smoothly, using demographic analysis to ensure that you have the best chance of winning as possible.
Our Sample Strategy: electioncord.com/sample-strat...
Contact us at ⤵️
Our Sample Strategy: electioncord.com/sample-strat...
Contact us at ⤵️
December 10, 2025 at 11:40 PM
If you're running for ANY level of office in the US in 2026, contact us! We will help you run your campaign smoothly, using demographic analysis to ensure that you have the best chance of winning as possible.
Our Sample Strategy: electioncord.com/sample-strat...
Contact us at ⤵️
Our Sample Strategy: electioncord.com/sample-strat...
Contact us at ⤵️
Reposted by ElectionCord
The newest edition of Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch is out now!
In this edition, we’re covering all of tonight’s special elections in Florida, Georgia, and Iowa and launching the initial 2026 ratings for Arkansas.
Check it out below!
open.substack.com/pub/uncrewed...
In this edition, we’re covering all of tonight’s special elections in Florida, Georgia, and Iowa and launching the initial 2026 ratings for Arkansas.
Check it out below!
open.substack.com/pub/uncrewed...
State Legislative Election Watch- December 9th, 2025
Covering all of tonight's special elections and launching our first ratings for Arkansas!
open.substack.com
December 9, 2025 at 8:36 PM
The newest edition of Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch is out now!
In this edition, we’re covering all of tonight’s special elections in Florida, Georgia, and Iowa and launching the initial 2026 ratings for Arkansas.
Check it out below!
open.substack.com/pub/uncrewed...
In this edition, we’re covering all of tonight’s special elections in Florida, Georgia, and Iowa and launching the initial 2026 ratings for Arkansas.
Check it out below!
open.substack.com/pub/uncrewed...
Trump has seen a bit of an uptick in his approval in the last week or so, likely because no one is thinking about the government shutdown, and also not a lot of high quality polling in the last couple of weeks. Remains to be seen if this is something real, or a flash in the pan.
December 9, 2025 at 9:33 PM
Trump has seen a bit of an uptick in his approval in the last week or so, likely because no one is thinking about the government shutdown, and also not a lot of high quality polling in the last couple of weeks. Remains to be seen if this is something real, or a flash in the pan.
Here's each demographic in our Generic Ballot Average, found on our website, ElectionCord.com. Democrats are currently leading most demographics, with the only categories Republicans are doing well in are partisan ones, like Republican and Conservative.
December 9, 2025 at 3:17 AM
Here's each demographic in our Generic Ballot Average, found on our website, ElectionCord.com. Democrats are currently leading most demographics, with the only categories Republicans are doing well in are partisan ones, like Republican and Conservative.
Reposted by ElectionCord
Democrats have their next flip opportunity tomorrow night in Georgia's #HD121, a Trump+12 seat covering southern Athens and neighboring Oconee County.
It's a double-digit Trump seat, but the Democrats flipped a similar version of this district in the lead up to 2018 too.
It's a double-digit Trump seat, but the Democrats flipped a similar version of this district in the lead up to 2018 too.
December 8, 2025 at 7:44 PM
Democrats have their next flip opportunity tomorrow night in Georgia's #HD121, a Trump+12 seat covering southern Athens and neighboring Oconee County.
It's a double-digit Trump seat, but the Democrats flipped a similar version of this district in the lead up to 2018 too.
It's a double-digit Trump seat, but the Democrats flipped a similar version of this district in the lead up to 2018 too.
A new poll out today by Yale Polling asked a pretty interesting question, about what Democrats' strategy should be in 2026. There's a pretty big age gap also, with younger people tending to agree more with the progressive answer, while older people tend to agree with the moderate answer.
December 8, 2025 at 10:21 PM
A new poll out today by Yale Polling asked a pretty interesting question, about what Democrats' strategy should be in 2026. There's a pretty big age gap also, with younger people tending to agree more with the progressive answer, while older people tend to agree with the moderate answer.
Reposted by ElectionCord
NEW: Our generic ballot averages, complete with demographic averages, are now OUT! In addition to the overall average, we also have party registration, 2024 vote, ideology, ethnicity, age, and education.
LINK: electioncord.com/generic-ball...
LINK: electioncord.com/generic-ball...
December 7, 2025 at 11:52 PM
NEW: Our generic ballot averages, complete with demographic averages, are now OUT! In addition to the overall average, we also have party registration, 2024 vote, ideology, ethnicity, age, and education.
LINK: electioncord.com/generic-ball...
LINK: electioncord.com/generic-ball...
NEW: Our generic ballot averages, complete with demographic averages, are now OUT! In addition to the overall average, we also have party registration, 2024 vote, ideology, ethnicity, age, and education.
LINK: electioncord.com/generic-ball...
LINK: electioncord.com/generic-ball...
December 7, 2025 at 11:52 PM
NEW: Our generic ballot averages, complete with demographic averages, are now OUT! In addition to the overall average, we also have party registration, 2024 vote, ideology, ethnicity, age, and education.
LINK: electioncord.com/generic-ball...
LINK: electioncord.com/generic-ball...
Our Generic Ballot averages should be released tomorrow, but here's a sneak peek at the result by age, compared to Trump's approval. Of note is how much young people are still voting Democratic, and how Dems have a chance to win people 65 and over. (1/2)
December 7, 2025 at 1:19 AM
Our Generic Ballot averages should be released tomorrow, but here's a sneak peek at the result by age, compared to Trump's approval. Of note is how much young people are still voting Democratic, and how Dems have a chance to win people 65 and over. (1/2)
I'm working on our generic ballot averages, and I noticed something interesting, independents are considerably more likely to either answer unsure or not voting when asked about how they will vote in 2026.
Dem Respondents: 93% Answer Dem or Rep
Indy: 60%
Rep: 92%
Dem Respondents: 93% Answer Dem or Rep
Indy: 60%
Rep: 92%
December 5, 2025 at 10:46 PM
I'm working on our generic ballot averages, and I noticed something interesting, independents are considerably more likely to either answer unsure or not voting when asked about how they will vote in 2026.
Dem Respondents: 93% Answer Dem or Rep
Indy: 60%
Rep: 92%
Dem Respondents: 93% Answer Dem or Rep
Indy: 60%
Rep: 92%
They've lost Rasmussen (honestly this is one of the biggest warning signs I've seen for Trump)
Trump Approval Polling:
Disapprove: 55%
Approve: 44%
Rasmussen / Dec 2, 2025
(Republican Pollster)
Disapprove: 55%
Approve: 44%
Rasmussen / Dec 2, 2025
(Republican Pollster)
December 4, 2025 at 8:26 PM
They've lost Rasmussen (honestly this is one of the biggest warning signs I've seen for Trump)
Reposted by ElectionCord
Two thoughts with this poll shared by @purrtah.bsky.social:
- This could very well be setting up for a 2010-style midterm
- Whoever wins in 2028 is going to have A LOOTTT of work ahead of them
- This could very well be setting up for a 2010-style midterm
- Whoever wins in 2028 is going to have A LOOTTT of work ahead of them
December 4, 2025 at 5:56 PM
Two thoughts with this poll shared by @purrtah.bsky.social:
- This could very well be setting up for a 2010-style midterm
- Whoever wins in 2028 is going to have A LOOTTT of work ahead of them
- This could very well be setting up for a 2010-style midterm
- Whoever wins in 2028 is going to have A LOOTTT of work ahead of them
Reposted by ElectionCord
It's possible that in 2026 the GOP bombs with poorer/less-educated voters while holding up decently with rich ones.
In 2024, the richest voters were actually more likely to stay home and defect than middle-income voters, according to analysis from @electioncord.com.
In 2024, the richest voters were actually more likely to stay home and defect than middle-income voters, according to analysis from @electioncord.com.
December 3, 2025 at 11:06 PM
It's possible that in 2026 the GOP bombs with poorer/less-educated voters while holding up decently with rich ones.
In 2024, the richest voters were actually more likely to stay home and defect than middle-income voters, according to analysis from @electioncord.com.
In 2024, the richest voters were actually more likely to stay home and defect than middle-income voters, according to analysis from @electioncord.com.
Trump only won this seat by 13% in 2024. If Democrats can have a similar overperformance here as in TN-7, they would be within 1% or tied...
apparently Nancy Mace is considering an early retirement like MTG www.nytimes.com/2025/12/03/u...
December 3, 2025 at 10:46 PM
Trump only won this seat by 13% in 2024. If Democrats can have a similar overperformance here as in TN-7, they would be within 1% or tied...