Personally, I prefer either the 3 group breakdown of <$50K, $50K-100K, $100K+, or a 5 group breakdown, although we have the 3 group breakdown on our website.

That being said, Democrats were a much bigger portion of the electorate than now. According to Roper Center, the 2012 election was a D+6 electorate, but in 2024, it was likely even or even R+1. It's something to watch for in 2026, to see what the party division looks like.

This is quite a shift in the Trump era, and it has to do with the makeup of the sample itself. Back in say, 2012, according to Roper Center/Cornell, Romney won Indies by 5%, even though he lost overall.

3%: Very Happy

BTW, I don't mean that Dems should moderate or whatever in this race to win, just that Crockett's whole thing being I hate Trump won't get as many "Dem leaning" votes as you might assume. I think that's a better strategy in say, Georgia

Also, Dem leaning non voters might not even like Crockett's message, since they're DEM LEANING... To me, the kinds of non-voters Dems need in Texas to win are probably anti-Trump, somewhat conservative on social issues, and liberal on the economy

Also, the fact that Crockett is doing better among older people and women isn't too surprising, as it seems an anti-Trump focus appeals more to those demographics generally. This is a good poll for Talarico though, since he has less name recognition than Crockett.

That's probably right. I think part of it is people who are checked out will describe themselves as moderate/centrists, and (a smaller) part of it is them not feeling like they have good options. FWIW, Indies are broken down like this:

5% Other
26% Not Sure
32% Not Voting

Oh it is, and trust me, I'm not excited about it necessarily, but it is still notable, it's a 3-4% swing for Trump's approval