Dj
@djsoke.bsky.social
I’m kind of a pie hater so got a tres leches for Thanksgiving instead 🙂↕️
November 27, 2025 at 4:31 AM
I’m kind of a pie hater so got a tres leches for Thanksgiving instead 🙂↕️
here are all those percentages in graph format
Dems obviously have a turnout advantage, the comparisons to 2022 and 2024's EVs look very similar to Virginia
the EV did end up looking fairly similar to the primary though, it looked for a while that it would be better than the primary
Dems obviously have a turnout advantage, the comparisons to 2022 and 2024's EVs look very similar to Virginia
the EV did end up looking fairly similar to the primary though, it looked for a while that it would be better than the primary
November 27, 2025 at 2:58 AM
here are all those percentages in graph format
Dems obviously have a turnout advantage, the comparisons to 2022 and 2024's EVs look very similar to Virginia
the EV did end up looking fairly similar to the primary though, it looked for a while that it would be better than the primary
Dems obviously have a turnout advantage, the comparisons to 2022 and 2024's EVs look very similar to Virginia
the EV did end up looking fairly similar to the primary though, it looked for a while that it would be better than the primary
woops, needed to sort
final ev update from tn07:
slightly geographically bluer than the primary, though Davidson fell behind the CD's % of primary and its share of the total EV from the primary after leading all window
final ev update from tn07:
slightly geographically bluer than the primary, though Davidson fell behind the CD's % of primary and its share of the total EV from the primary after leading all window
November 27, 2025 at 2:51 AM
woops, needed to sort
final ev update from tn07:
slightly geographically bluer than the primary, though Davidson fell behind the CD's % of primary and its share of the total EV from the primary after leading all window
final ev update from tn07:
slightly geographically bluer than the primary, though Davidson fell behind the CD's % of primary and its share of the total EV from the primary after leading all window
I’ll run the cumulative numbers when I get home but here’s the voted cast today in TN07
Davidson - 2972
Williamson - 1783
Montgomery - 1525
Rest of TN07: 3382
Honestly very strong turnout in the district considering the reduced hours, 76% of yesterday in the rurals
Davidson - 2972
Williamson - 1783
Montgomery - 1525
Rest of TN07: 3382
Honestly very strong turnout in the district considering the reduced hours, 76% of yesterday in the rurals
November 27, 2025 at 1:53 AM
I’ll run the cumulative numbers when I get home but here’s the voted cast today in TN07
Davidson - 2972
Williamson - 1783
Montgomery - 1525
Rest of TN07: 3382
Honestly very strong turnout in the district considering the reduced hours, 76% of yesterday in the rurals
Davidson - 2972
Williamson - 1783
Montgomery - 1525
Rest of TN07: 3382
Honestly very strong turnout in the district considering the reduced hours, 76% of yesterday in the rurals
2950 from Davidson today ❗️
November 26, 2025 at 11:39 PM
2950 from Davidson today ❗️
penultimate look at EV from TN07, though who knows if we get the full EV update tomorrow or not
Almost 75k votes cast, up 147% from the primary and 23% of 2024's total votes
Davidson is still slightly ahead of the CD overall, but it's also got much of today all to itself
Almost 75k votes cast, up 147% from the primary and 23% of 2024's total votes
Davidson is still slightly ahead of the CD overall, but it's also got much of today all to itself
November 26, 2025 at 2:07 PM
penultimate look at EV from TN07, though who knows if we get the full EV update tomorrow or not
Almost 75k votes cast, up 147% from the primary and 23% of 2024's total votes
Davidson is still slightly ahead of the CD overall, but it's also got much of today all to itself
Almost 75k votes cast, up 147% from the primary and 23% of 2024's total votes
Davidson is still slightly ahead of the CD overall, but it's also got much of today all to itself
There was definitely a difference in methodology though; in NJ Emerson was weighting to both 2021 and 2024, so the polled “electorate” was Murphy+3, Harris+6 - not even close to the actual electorate
This time they didn’t weight LVs to 2024, so no assumptions here 🙂↔️
This time they didn’t weight LVs to 2024, so no assumptions here 🙂↔️
Emerson also undershot Sherrill’s margin… so 👀
November 26, 2025 at 1:58 PM
There was definitely a difference in methodology though; in NJ Emerson was weighting to both 2021 and 2024, so the polled “electorate” was Murphy+3, Harris+6 - not even close to the actual electorate
This time they didn’t weight LVs to 2024, so no assumptions here 🙂↔️
This time they didn’t weight LVs to 2024, so no assumptions here 🙂↔️
Huh
Emerson poll has TN07 deadlocked, with Behn leading early voters by 15
Someone summon a blizzard on Election Day
Emerson poll has TN07 deadlocked, with Behn leading early voters by 15
Someone summon a blizzard on Election Day
November 26, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Huh
Emerson poll has TN07 deadlocked, with Behn leading early voters by 15
Someone summon a blizzard on Election Day
Emerson poll has TN07 deadlocked, with Behn leading early voters by 15
Someone summon a blizzard on Election Day
2440 out of Davidson today
November 26, 2025 at 1:10 AM
2440 out of Davidson today
happy two days until Thanksgiving and one week until eday in tn07
we're in a little bit of a peculiar window for the last few days where Davidson and the rest of the CD are on different timelines
I hope we get the full EV update on Thursday even with the holiday lol
we're in a little bit of a peculiar window for the last few days where Davidson and the rest of the CD are on different timelines
I hope we get the full EV update on Thursday even with the holiday lol
November 25, 2025 at 4:27 PM
happy two days until Thanksgiving and one week until eday in tn07
we're in a little bit of a peculiar window for the last few days where Davidson and the rest of the CD are on different timelines
I hope we get the full EV update on Thursday even with the holiday lol
we're in a little bit of a peculiar window for the last few days where Davidson and the rest of the CD are on different timelines
I hope we get the full EV update on Thursday even with the holiday lol
Body & health still WIPs but looking back, it’s hard to believe how far I’ve come
(Also ik my hair is a mess I had just gotten out of the water and it was still drying )
Now nearly 9 years and about a 150lb difference from my heaviest weight
(Also ik my hair is a mess I had just gotten out of the water and it was still drying )
Now nearly 9 years and about a 150lb difference from my heaviest weight
November 24, 2025 at 10:19 PM
Body & health still WIPs but looking back, it’s hard to believe how far I’ve come
(Also ik my hair is a mess I had just gotten out of the water and it was still drying )
Now nearly 9 years and about a 150lb difference from my heaviest weight
(Also ik my hair is a mess I had just gotten out of the water and it was still drying )
Now nearly 9 years and about a 150lb difference from my heaviest weight
gonna have to resub to hbo max just for heated rivalry
at least the corporate overlords will know what I’m there for 🙂↕️
at least the corporate overlords will know what I’m there for 🙂↕️
November 24, 2025 at 1:05 AM
gonna have to resub to hbo max just for heated rivalry
at least the corporate overlords will know what I’m there for 🙂↕️
at least the corporate overlords will know what I’m there for 🙂↕️
No EV to EV comparison but the D turnout edge is also visible at the precinct level
Unfortunately very hard to parse details on the votehub site but it looks very similar to how the VA precinct early vote looked
Unfortunately very hard to parse details on the votehub site but it looks very similar to how the VA precinct early vote looked
November 23, 2025 at 4:52 PM
No EV to EV comparison but the D turnout edge is also visible at the precinct level
Unfortunately very hard to parse details on the votehub site but it looks very similar to how the VA precinct early vote looked
Unfortunately very hard to parse details on the votehub site but it looks very similar to how the VA precinct early vote looked
Two full weeks of EV down: 3 days left for Davidson, 2.5 for everyone else
About 55k votes cast so far, 17% of total 2024 votes; up 130.4% from the primary
The bigger counties continue to do best as a % of 2024's total and compared to the primary
About 55k votes cast so far, 17% of total 2024 votes; up 130.4% from the primary
The bigger counties continue to do best as a % of 2024's total and compared to the primary
November 23, 2025 at 3:44 PM
Two full weeks of EV down: 3 days left for Davidson, 2.5 for everyone else
About 55k votes cast so far, 17% of total 2024 votes; up 130.4% from the primary
The bigger counties continue to do best as a % of 2024's total and compared to the primary
About 55k votes cast so far, 17% of total 2024 votes; up 130.4% from the primary
The bigger counties continue to do best as a % of 2024's total and compared to the primary
On a macro level, economic dissatisfaction is probably the #1 way to get the incumbent’s base deactivated (and to lose soft supporters)
Still a year to go before 2026 but this is definitely “the thing”
Still a year to go before 2026 but this is definitely “the thing”
November 23, 2025 at 2:44 PM
On a macro level, economic dissatisfaction is probably the #1 way to get the incumbent’s base deactivated (and to lose soft supporters)
Still a year to go before 2026 but this is definitely “the thing”
Still a year to go before 2026 but this is definitely “the thing”
Generational opportunity for Ds to regain ground on the economy as an issue
November 23, 2025 at 2:36 PM
Generational opportunity for Ds to regain ground on the economy as an issue
Montgomery finally updated and had 1400 today
All other counties had only 3-4 hours of voting (and some reduced locations) so won’t be much but I’ll update the table with everything when we get it tomorrow
All other counties had only 3-4 hours of voting (and some reduced locations) so won’t be much but I’ll update the table with everything when we get it tomorrow
2000 EV from Davidson today lol
November 23, 2025 at 12:10 AM
Montgomery finally updated and had 1400 today
All other counties had only 3-4 hours of voting (and some reduced locations) so won’t be much but I’ll update the table with everything when we get it tomorrow
All other counties had only 3-4 hours of voting (and some reduced locations) so won’t be much but I’ll update the table with everything when we get it tomorrow
My goal has been to grow out my hair for the better part of 2.5 years
For ~2 years I made no progress whatsoever, but in the last six months or so I’ve had (exceptionally slow, but) real growth
It’s very exciting but I’m lowkey anxious/paranoid that smth will go wrong lmao
For ~2 years I made no progress whatsoever, but in the last six months or so I’ve had (exceptionally slow, but) real growth
It’s very exciting but I’m lowkey anxious/paranoid that smth will go wrong lmao
November 23, 2025 at 12:05 AM
My goal has been to grow out my hair for the better part of 2.5 years
For ~2 years I made no progress whatsoever, but in the last six months or so I’ve had (exceptionally slow, but) real growth
It’s very exciting but I’m lowkey anxious/paranoid that smth will go wrong lmao
For ~2 years I made no progress whatsoever, but in the last six months or so I’ve had (exceptionally slow, but) real growth
It’s very exciting but I’m lowkey anxious/paranoid that smth will go wrong lmao
2000 EV from Davidson today lol
November 22, 2025 at 10:49 PM
2000 EV from Davidson today lol
No doubt that sentiment is bad and people are pissed about the economy but UMich’s numbers have been extremely fake since the methodology change
Do I think sentiment is 2009 levels? Nope, we’re not there yet
But I do but this, being at 2022 levels
civicscience.com/economic-sen...
Do I think sentiment is 2009 levels? Nope, we’re not there yet
But I do but this, being at 2022 levels
civicscience.com/economic-sen...
November 22, 2025 at 3:11 PM
No doubt that sentiment is bad and people are pissed about the economy but UMich’s numbers have been extremely fake since the methodology change
Do I think sentiment is 2009 levels? Nope, we’re not there yet
But I do but this, being at 2022 levels
civicscience.com/economic-sen...
Do I think sentiment is 2009 levels? Nope, we’re not there yet
But I do but this, being at 2022 levels
civicscience.com/economic-sen...
Just open the second location the whole time, or make the second location the permanent one instead! bc don’t pmo…
November 22, 2025 at 1:52 PM
Just open the second location the whole time, or make the second location the permanent one instead! bc don’t pmo…
The vast majority of R politicians are not authentically maga-pilled, but MTG always struck me as a true believer in the “project” of maga
so maybe the maga disillusionment is real?
so maybe the maga disillusionment is real?
MTG resigning is like the first real holy shit moment of this presidency to me
November 22, 2025 at 1:43 AM
The vast majority of R politicians are not authentically maga-pilled, but MTG always struck me as a true believer in the “project” of maga
so maybe the maga disillusionment is real?
so maybe the maga disillusionment is real?
MTG resigning is like the first real holy shit moment of this presidency to me
November 22, 2025 at 1:30 AM
MTG resigning is like the first real holy shit moment of this presidency to me
Davidson had a big day today, about 1500 votes (Montgomery had 1400)
With Davidson as the only county with a full final day of EV, we’ll def have a geographically bluer EV than the primary
But even matching primary comp, Behn would also need a bluer EDay to be competitive
With Davidson as the only county with a full final day of EV, we’ll def have a geographically bluer EV than the primary
But even matching primary comp, Behn would also need a bluer EDay to be competitive
November 21, 2025 at 11:57 PM
Davidson had a big day today, about 1500 votes (Montgomery had 1400)
With Davidson as the only county with a full final day of EV, we’ll def have a geographically bluer EV than the primary
But even matching primary comp, Behn would also need a bluer EDay to be competitive
With Davidson as the only county with a full final day of EV, we’ll def have a geographically bluer EV than the primary
But even matching primary comp, Behn would also need a bluer EDay to be competitive