Dj
@djsoke.bsky.social
was several % bluer on monday, but today it's ~1% bluer geographically
but that doesn't necessarily match vote intent
Rs narrowly "won" the EV in the primary, but Emerson is saying Behn +14 among early voters
interesting that the three lagging counties are Van Epps' worst in the primary
but that doesn't necessarily match vote intent
Rs narrowly "won" the EV in the primary, but Emerson is saying Behn +14 among early voters
interesting that the three lagging counties are Van Epps' worst in the primary
November 27, 2025 at 3:28 AM
was several % bluer on monday, but today it's ~1% bluer geographically
but that doesn't necessarily match vote intent
Rs narrowly "won" the EV in the primary, but Emerson is saying Behn +14 among early voters
interesting that the three lagging counties are Van Epps' worst in the primary
but that doesn't necessarily match vote intent
Rs narrowly "won" the EV in the primary, but Emerson is saying Behn +14 among early voters
interesting that the three lagging counties are Van Epps' worst in the primary
the 2022 total vote comp is extremely similar to the 2024 total vote comp, just like the EVs are similar, only offset
top is 2024 total
bottom is 2022 total
top is 2024 total
bottom is 2022 total
November 27, 2025 at 3:22 AM
the 2022 total vote comp is extremely similar to the 2024 total vote comp, just like the EVs are similar, only offset
top is 2024 total
bottom is 2022 total
top is 2024 total
bottom is 2022 total
here are all those percentages in graph format
Dems obviously have a turnout advantage, the comparisons to 2022 and 2024's EVs look very similar to Virginia
the EV did end up looking fairly similar to the primary though, it looked for a while that it would be better than the primary
Dems obviously have a turnout advantage, the comparisons to 2022 and 2024's EVs look very similar to Virginia
the EV did end up looking fairly similar to the primary though, it looked for a while that it would be better than the primary
November 27, 2025 at 2:58 AM
here are all those percentages in graph format
Dems obviously have a turnout advantage, the comparisons to 2022 and 2024's EVs look very similar to Virginia
the EV did end up looking fairly similar to the primary though, it looked for a while that it would be better than the primary
Dems obviously have a turnout advantage, the comparisons to 2022 and 2024's EVs look very similar to Virginia
the EV did end up looking fairly similar to the primary though, it looked for a while that it would be better than the primary
woops, needed to sort
final ev update from tn07:
slightly geographically bluer than the primary, though Davidson fell behind the CD's % of primary and its share of the total EV from the primary after leading all window
final ev update from tn07:
slightly geographically bluer than the primary, though Davidson fell behind the CD's % of primary and its share of the total EV from the primary after leading all window
November 27, 2025 at 2:51 AM
woops, needed to sort
final ev update from tn07:
slightly geographically bluer than the primary, though Davidson fell behind the CD's % of primary and its share of the total EV from the primary after leading all window
final ev update from tn07:
slightly geographically bluer than the primary, though Davidson fell behind the CD's % of primary and its share of the total EV from the primary after leading all window
penultimate look at EV from TN07, though who knows if we get the full EV update tomorrow or not
Almost 75k votes cast, up 147% from the primary and 23% of 2024's total votes
Davidson is still slightly ahead of the CD overall, but it's also got much of today all to itself
Almost 75k votes cast, up 147% from the primary and 23% of 2024's total votes
Davidson is still slightly ahead of the CD overall, but it's also got much of today all to itself
November 26, 2025 at 2:07 PM
penultimate look at EV from TN07, though who knows if we get the full EV update tomorrow or not
Almost 75k votes cast, up 147% from the primary and 23% of 2024's total votes
Davidson is still slightly ahead of the CD overall, but it's also got much of today all to itself
Almost 75k votes cast, up 147% from the primary and 23% of 2024's total votes
Davidson is still slightly ahead of the CD overall, but it's also got much of today all to itself
Huh
Emerson poll has TN07 deadlocked, with Behn leading early voters by 15
Someone summon a blizzard on Election Day
Emerson poll has TN07 deadlocked, with Behn leading early voters by 15
Someone summon a blizzard on Election Day
November 26, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Huh
Emerson poll has TN07 deadlocked, with Behn leading early voters by 15
Someone summon a blizzard on Election Day
Emerson poll has TN07 deadlocked, with Behn leading early voters by 15
Someone summon a blizzard on Election Day
happy two days until Thanksgiving and one week until eday in tn07
we're in a little bit of a peculiar window for the last few days where Davidson and the rest of the CD are on different timelines
I hope we get the full EV update on Thursday even with the holiday lol
we're in a little bit of a peculiar window for the last few days where Davidson and the rest of the CD are on different timelines
I hope we get the full EV update on Thursday even with the holiday lol
November 25, 2025 at 4:27 PM
happy two days until Thanksgiving and one week until eday in tn07
we're in a little bit of a peculiar window for the last few days where Davidson and the rest of the CD are on different timelines
I hope we get the full EV update on Thursday even with the holiday lol
we're in a little bit of a peculiar window for the last few days where Davidson and the rest of the CD are on different timelines
I hope we get the full EV update on Thursday even with the holiday lol
I started these yearly posts in 2023 to force myself to be positive after a brutal year recovering from surgery, but I’ve never shown that recovery
So here’s me (really my arm lol) in early 2023 after having lost about ~40lbs of mostly muscle mass vs me today
So here’s me (really my arm lol) in early 2023 after having lost about ~40lbs of mostly muscle mass vs me today
November 24, 2025 at 10:19 PM
I started these yearly posts in 2023 to force myself to be positive after a brutal year recovering from surgery, but I’ve never shown that recovery
So here’s me (really my arm lol) in early 2023 after having lost about ~40lbs of mostly muscle mass vs me today
So here’s me (really my arm lol) in early 2023 after having lost about ~40lbs of mostly muscle mass vs me today
Body & health still WIPs but looking back, it’s hard to believe how far I’ve come
(Also ik my hair is a mess I had just gotten out of the water and it was still drying )
Now nearly 9 years and about a 150lb difference from my heaviest weight
(Also ik my hair is a mess I had just gotten out of the water and it was still drying )
Now nearly 9 years and about a 150lb difference from my heaviest weight
November 24, 2025 at 10:19 PM
Body & health still WIPs but looking back, it’s hard to believe how far I’ve come
(Also ik my hair is a mess I had just gotten out of the water and it was still drying )
Now nearly 9 years and about a 150lb difference from my heaviest weight
(Also ik my hair is a mess I had just gotten out of the water and it was still drying )
Now nearly 9 years and about a 150lb difference from my heaviest weight
so it turns out many of the precincts are just missing from the data (including on the visual)
left is what it looks like with no data, right with data
makes it very hard to do the comparison, esp bc i have no way to verify if the other data is actually correct ;_;
left is what it looks like with no data, right with data
makes it very hard to do the comparison, esp bc i have no way to verify if the other data is actually correct ;_;
November 24, 2025 at 2:20 AM
so it turns out many of the precincts are just missing from the data (including on the visual)
left is what it looks like with no data, right with data
makes it very hard to do the comparison, esp bc i have no way to verify if the other data is actually correct ;_;
left is what it looks like with no data, right with data
makes it very hard to do the comparison, esp bc i have no way to verify if the other data is actually correct ;_;
No EV to EV comparison but the D turnout edge is also visible at the precinct level
Unfortunately very hard to parse details on the votehub site but it looks very similar to how the VA precinct early vote looked
Unfortunately very hard to parse details on the votehub site but it looks very similar to how the VA precinct early vote looked
November 23, 2025 at 4:52 PM
No EV to EV comparison but the D turnout edge is also visible at the precinct level
Unfortunately very hard to parse details on the votehub site but it looks very similar to how the VA precinct early vote looked
Unfortunately very hard to parse details on the votehub site but it looks very similar to how the VA precinct early vote looked
Here's the county table sorted by composition of primary vote
November 23, 2025 at 3:47 PM
Here's the county table sorted by composition of primary vote
Two full weeks of EV down: 3 days left for Davidson, 2.5 for everyone else
About 55k votes cast so far, 17% of total 2024 votes; up 130.4% from the primary
The bigger counties continue to do best as a % of 2024's total and compared to the primary
About 55k votes cast so far, 17% of total 2024 votes; up 130.4% from the primary
The bigger counties continue to do best as a % of 2024's total and compared to the primary
November 23, 2025 at 3:44 PM
Two full weeks of EV down: 3 days left for Davidson, 2.5 for everyone else
About 55k votes cast so far, 17% of total 2024 votes; up 130.4% from the primary
The bigger counties continue to do best as a % of 2024's total and compared to the primary
About 55k votes cast so far, 17% of total 2024 votes; up 130.4% from the primary
The bigger counties continue to do best as a % of 2024's total and compared to the primary
On a macro level, economic dissatisfaction is probably the #1 way to get the incumbent’s base deactivated (and to lose soft supporters)
Still a year to go before 2026 but this is definitely “the thing”
Still a year to go before 2026 but this is definitely “the thing”
November 23, 2025 at 2:44 PM
On a macro level, economic dissatisfaction is probably the #1 way to get the incumbent’s base deactivated (and to lose soft supporters)
Still a year to go before 2026 but this is definitely “the thing”
Still a year to go before 2026 but this is definitely “the thing”
Generational opportunity for Ds to regain ground on the economy as an issue
November 23, 2025 at 2:36 PM
Generational opportunity for Ds to regain ground on the economy as an issue
Not only did cheatham say “only three hours of voting today” they also said you only get two locations too
Why are they like this lol
Why are they like this lol
November 23, 2025 at 12:18 AM
Not only did cheatham say “only three hours of voting today” they also said you only get two locations too
Why are they like this lol
Why are they like this lol
No doubt that sentiment is bad and people are pissed about the economy but UMich’s numbers have been extremely fake since the methodology change
Do I think sentiment is 2009 levels? Nope, we’re not there yet
But I do but this, being at 2022 levels
civicscience.com/economic-sen...
Do I think sentiment is 2009 levels? Nope, we’re not there yet
But I do but this, being at 2022 levels
civicscience.com/economic-sen...
November 22, 2025 at 3:11 PM
No doubt that sentiment is bad and people are pissed about the economy but UMich’s numbers have been extremely fake since the methodology change
Do I think sentiment is 2009 levels? Nope, we’re not there yet
But I do but this, being at 2022 levels
civicscience.com/economic-sen...
Do I think sentiment is 2009 levels? Nope, we’re not there yet
But I do but this, being at 2022 levels
civicscience.com/economic-sen...
Just open the second location the whole time, or make the second location the permanent one instead! bc don’t pmo…
November 22, 2025 at 1:52 PM
Just open the second location the whole time, or make the second location the permanent one instead! bc don’t pmo…
TN07 update
About 42k votes cast, 13% of total 2024 turnout and up about 117% vs the primary
Davidson is a bit ahead of the CD overall, so EV is geographically a few % bluer than the primary, but this is super imprecise when we only have county-level data and no partisan info
About 42k votes cast, 13% of total 2024 turnout and up about 117% vs the primary
Davidson is a bit ahead of the CD overall, so EV is geographically a few % bluer than the primary, but this is super imprecise when we only have county-level data and no partisan info
November 21, 2025 at 2:29 PM
TN07 update
About 42k votes cast, 13% of total 2024 turnout and up about 117% vs the primary
Davidson is a bit ahead of the CD overall, so EV is geographically a few % bluer than the primary, but this is super imprecise when we only have county-level data and no partisan info
About 42k votes cast, 13% of total 2024 turnout and up about 117% vs the primary
Davidson is a bit ahead of the CD overall, so EV is geographically a few % bluer than the primary, but this is super imprecise when we only have county-level data and no partisan info
My stimulant delivery has been repeatedly delayed and I need to be up by 5 tomorrow
good luck me
good luck me
November 20, 2025 at 3:48 AM
My stimulant delivery has been repeatedly delayed and I need to be up by 5 tomorrow
good luck me
good luck me
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Why does Dickson’s extra location schedule look like this
All a mess lol
Why does Dickson’s extra location schedule look like this
All a mess lol
November 20, 2025 at 2:46 AM
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Why does Dickson’s extra location schedule look like this
All a mess lol
Why does Dickson’s extra location schedule look like this
All a mess lol
I thought you might tbh and honestly that makes more sense
I actually replied to a comment on twitter about this yesterday lol
Houston and Humphreys were #2/3 for % of votes cast early in the primary (59.3% and 58.6%) so I’m not fully convinced they’re doing well yet
I actually replied to a comment on twitter about this yesterday lol
Houston and Humphreys were #2/3 for % of votes cast early in the primary (59.3% and 58.6%) so I’m not fully convinced they’re doing well yet
November 19, 2025 at 11:03 PM
I thought you might tbh and honestly that makes more sense
I actually replied to a comment on twitter about this yesterday lol
Houston and Humphreys were #2/3 for % of votes cast early in the primary (59.3% and 58.6%) so I’m not fully convinced they’re doing well yet
I actually replied to a comment on twitter about this yesterday lol
Houston and Humphreys were #2/3 for % of votes cast early in the primary (59.3% and 58.6%) so I’m not fully convinced they’re doing well yet
in things literally no one asked for here are my personal top 10 pop songs this year (alphabetical order)
November 18, 2025 at 3:43 AM
in things literally no one asked for here are my personal top 10 pop songs this year (alphabetical order)
They’re not separated out, but it says they’re included here
Also if you look at Montgomery’s sheet and compare it to the daily numbers on the state’s sheet, it’s IP + VBM = state number
And no, I have only seen nightly updates from MontCo and Davidson but I haven’t scoured the rurals either
Also if you look at Montgomery’s sheet and compare it to the daily numbers on the state’s sheet, it’s IP + VBM = state number
And no, I have only seen nightly updates from MontCo and Davidson but I haven’t scoured the rurals either
November 18, 2025 at 2:14 AM
They’re not separated out, but it says they’re included here
Also if you look at Montgomery’s sheet and compare it to the daily numbers on the state’s sheet, it’s IP + VBM = state number
And no, I have only seen nightly updates from MontCo and Davidson but I haven’t scoured the rurals either
Also if you look at Montgomery’s sheet and compare it to the daily numbers on the state’s sheet, it’s IP + VBM = state number
And no, I have only seen nightly updates from MontCo and Davidson but I haven’t scoured the rurals either