Don Van Atta
@oldsovetlog.bsky.social
I study (agrarian) politics in the former Soviet states.
Long-term policy advisor in Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, Tajikistan. Resident director of 5 USAID-funded projects.
Democratic institutions are hard to build and keep.
Berkeley PolSci PhD eons ago.
Long-term policy advisor in Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, Tajikistan. Resident director of 5 USAID-funded projects.
Democratic institutions are hard to build and keep.
Berkeley PolSci PhD eons ago.
Reposted by Don Van Atta
Quick guide to interpreting US foreign policy propaganda: if the word “deal” was used, some American made some money, and the war is still going on.
An estimated 200,000 people have fled fighting in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo just days after Trump hailed a “historic” peace deal to end the conflict.
200,000 Flee Congo After Trump’s ‘Historic’ Peace Deal
Why the Rwanda-Congo accord misses the point.
foreignpolicy.com
December 12, 2025 at 6:54 PM
Quick guide to interpreting US foreign policy propaganda: if the word “deal” was used, some American made some money, and the war is still going on.
Reposted by Don Van Atta
The EU just officially removed Orban and Fico's ability to force €210B in Russia's frozen EU assets to be released by vetoing sanctions renewal.
They will now stay frozen and under EU control until after Russia pays post-war reparations to Ukraine, with no further votes needed.
They will now stay frozen and under EU control until after Russia pays post-war reparations to Ukraine, with no further votes needed.
December 12, 2025 at 4:42 PM
The EU just officially removed Orban and Fico's ability to force €210B in Russia's frozen EU assets to be released by vetoing sanctions renewal.
They will now stay frozen and under EU control until after Russia pays post-war reparations to Ukraine, with no further votes needed.
They will now stay frozen and under EU control until after Russia pays post-war reparations to Ukraine, with no further votes needed.
Reposted by Don Van Atta
NEW: A major shift in underway in recent months kicked into gear this week, with ICE trial attorneys around the country asking immigration "judges" to toss out *nearly all* asylum applications on the grounds of "safe third country" agreements with Uganda, Honduras, Ecuador, and Guatemala.
December 12, 2025 at 4:33 PM
NEW: A major shift in underway in recent months kicked into gear this week, with ICE trial attorneys around the country asking immigration "judges" to toss out *nearly all* asylum applications on the grounds of "safe third country" agreements with Uganda, Honduras, Ecuador, and Guatemala.
Reposted by Don Van Atta
Congestion pricing seems like a great example of a policy where the effects are immediately legible to the public in a way that changes their views. Before, people were unsure; after, most people see the benefits and don't want to go back (see also smoking in bars).
Particulate pollution in the air down a whopping 22% in NYC’s congestion pricing zone.
Not only are the streets less congested, but so are our lungs.
e360.yale.edu/digest/new-y...
Not only are the streets less congested, but so are our lungs.
e360.yale.edu/digest/new-y...
In New York City, Congestion Pricing Leads to Marked Drop in Pollution
e360.yale.edu
December 12, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Congestion pricing seems like a great example of a policy where the effects are immediately legible to the public in a way that changes their views. Before, people were unsure; after, most people see the benefits and don't want to go back (see also smoking in bars).
Reposted by Don Van Atta
This is where the current policies are leading us
The Trump administration is threatening to deport a Chinese man who personally documented the Chinese government's massive detention system in Xinjiang. If forcibly returned to China, he faces the risk of state persecution for his invaluable & brave work.
open.substack.com/pub/hrichina...
open.substack.com/pub/hrichina...
Man who filmed Uyghur concentration camps now fights for his own freedom in the United States
In 2020, Guan Heng embarked on a risky mission to prove the existence of concentration camp facilities used to imprison Uyghurs. Now, he faces the threat of deportation back to China, where he would f...
open.substack.com
December 12, 2025 at 4:13 PM
This is where the current policies are leading us
Reposted by Don Van Atta
Reposted by Don Van Atta
This is far from over, but I tend to agree. Authoritarian attempts are prototypical cases of multiple equilibria: when the key actors believe that it will succeed, they are more likely to join, which makes it more likely to succeed. When that belief crumbles, the probability of success vanishes...
In the last few weeks, I’ve become increasingly convinced that Trump and his regime are totally cooked.
They can only stay in power by stealing elections—but they can only do that if enough people are willing to help them.
They’re in a downward spiral and can’t pull themselves out of it.
They can only stay in power by stealing elections—but they can only do that if enough people are willing to help them.
They’re in a downward spiral and can’t pull themselves out of it.
December 12, 2025 at 3:20 PM
This is far from over, but I tend to agree. Authoritarian attempts are prototypical cases of multiple equilibria: when the key actors believe that it will succeed, they are more likely to join, which makes it more likely to succeed. When that belief crumbles, the probability of success vanishes...
Reposted by Don Van Atta
Reposted by Don Van Atta
Also, the workers in the original art risked their lives to make the lives of others better. These guys risk our lives to make their lives better.
I guess it's fitting that it's a reimagined, worse version of someone else's artwork
December 12, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Also, the workers in the original art risked their lives to make the lives of others better. These guys risk our lives to make their lives better.
Reposted by Don Van Atta
Definitely worth reading. NB the points about the railroads’ importance to RU national security (esp given RU’s strategic culture), their importance to the rural economy and rural life, and how China isn’t helping but is instead taking advantage of RU’s problems by stepping up OBOR etc.
Russia now faces a downward spiral of logistical struggle as its rail network—its primary means of transport—experiences a precipitous decline. Although Ukraine war briefly boosted rail usage for military cargo, the resulting economic bump was fleeting.
@jhawn.bsky.social
ridl.io/the-decline-...
@jhawn.bsky.social
ridl.io/the-decline-...
The Decline of Russia’s Railroads – Riddle Russia
Jeff Hawn on Russian railways as a diagnostic indicator of broader economic crisis
ridl.io
December 12, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Definitely worth reading. NB the points about the railroads’ importance to RU national security (esp given RU’s strategic culture), their importance to the rural economy and rural life, and how China isn’t helping but is instead taking advantage of RU’s problems by stepping up OBOR etc.
Reposted by Don Van Atta
Day 1388 of Ukraine's fight for life, both the individual and the state.
A majority of people now think the war is coming to an end. But funnily enough the Ukrainians and Russians don't think so.
Here's Friday's daily thread:
A majority of people now think the war is coming to an end. But funnily enough the Ukrainians and Russians don't think so.
Here's Friday's daily thread:
December 12, 2025 at 10:12 AM
Day 1388 of Ukraine's fight for life, both the individual and the state.
A majority of people now think the war is coming to an end. But funnily enough the Ukrainians and Russians don't think so.
Here's Friday's daily thread:
A majority of people now think the war is coming to an end. But funnily enough the Ukrainians and Russians don't think so.
Here's Friday's daily thread:
Reposted by Don Van Atta
Germany said Friday it had identified two Russian cyber operations targeting air traffic control and February's general election, and that it had summoned the Russian ambassador.
Germany Blames Russia for Cyberattack on Air Safety, Election Interference - The Moscow Times
Germany said Friday it had identified two Russian cyber operations targeting air traffic control and February's general election, and that it had summoned the Russian ambassador.
www.themoscowtimes.com
December 12, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Germany said Friday it had identified two Russian cyber operations targeting air traffic control and February's general election, and that it had summoned the Russian ambassador.
Reposted by Don Van Atta
Note that it was the @aaup.org and faculty standing up for themselves, not UCLA as an institution, that successfully went to court to arrest Trump’s overreach here.
Important piece on Trump’s “problematic and ethically dubious” effort to gin up a case against UCLA: “Multiple attorneys who worked on it told us they were relieved they’d left the DOJ before they could be asked to sign it.”
NEW: Trump’s DOJ Pressured Lawyers to “Find” Evidence That UCLA Had Illegally Tolerated Antisemitism
An investigation by ProPublica and @chronicle.com reveals how the U.S. government ignored due process to gin up its attack on the University of California.
An investigation by ProPublica and @chronicle.com reveals how the U.S. government ignored due process to gin up its attack on the University of California.
December 12, 2025 at 12:22 PM
Note that it was the @aaup.org and faculty standing up for themselves, not UCLA as an institution, that successfully went to court to arrest Trump’s overreach here.
Reposted by Don Van Atta
Well this is a first (AFAIK).
Ukrainian Special Operations Forces&Black Spark rebel movement conducted an operation in the Caspian Sea-they struck 2 vessels by the shores of Kalmykia Republic.The vessels were transporting weapons &military equipment.
The vessels are under the US sanctions.
The vessels are under the US sanctions.
December 12, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Well this is a first (AFAIK).
Reposted by Don Van Atta
Yesterday, Spc Sarah Becstrom was laid to rest in West Virginia at a VA National Cemetery.
Surprisingly none of the major major news media mention it. No flags were lower to half staff.
Well the Convicted FElon keeps the news focus on him.
www.wvva.com/2025/12/10/s...
Surprisingly none of the major major news media mention it. No flags were lower to half staff.
Well the Convicted FElon keeps the news focus on him.
www.wvva.com/2025/12/10/s...
Spc. Sarah Beckstrom laid to rest with full military honors at W.Va. National Cemetery
Spc. Sarah Beckstrom was laid to rest with full military honors Tuesday in Grafton.
www.wvva.com
December 11, 2025 at 10:39 PM
Yesterday, Spc Sarah Becstrom was laid to rest in West Virginia at a VA National Cemetery.
Surprisingly none of the major major news media mention it. No flags were lower to half staff.
Well the Convicted FElon keeps the news focus on him.
www.wvva.com/2025/12/10/s...
Surprisingly none of the major major news media mention it. No flags were lower to half staff.
Well the Convicted FElon keeps the news focus on him.
www.wvva.com/2025/12/10/s...
Reposted by Don Van Atta
Excellent thread: basically Russia's money is now gone and there's nothing that the US or Putin (or Hungary) can do about it. 👇
The European Union has triggered Article 122 to indefinitely immobilise the assets of the Russian Central Bank, worth a whopping €210 billion.
I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.
🧵 Long thread.
I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.
🧵 Long thread.
December 11, 2025 at 6:53 PM
Excellent thread: basically Russia's money is now gone and there's nothing that the US or Putin (or Hungary) can do about it. 👇
Reposted by Don Van Atta
Pretty good dig (presumably he means DC should discuss free & fair elections in RU as part of a settlement). Add making UKR a second official language in RU, end discrimination against the UKR language and UKRs generally, limit the size of RU military, formal neutrality, etc. (A.k.a. reciprocity. )
2/• If President Trump continues to talk about elections in Ukraine, I want to say this absolutely openly — "we can try to hold elections."
• "Frankly speaking, here in Ukraine, we think that America should talk to the Russian side about elections."
• "Frankly speaking, here in Ukraine, we think that America should talk to the Russian side about elections."
December 11, 2025 at 10:08 PM
Pretty good dig (presumably he means DC should discuss free & fair elections in RU as part of a settlement). Add making UKR a second official language in RU, end discrimination against the UKR language and UKRs generally, limit the size of RU military, formal neutrality, etc. (A.k.a. reciprocity. )
Reposted by Don Van Atta
Go home and come back the right way so we can yank you out of line as you wait to swear your oath of Citizenship!
FKN
FKN
MAGAZINER: A hardworking man w/no criminal record who raised 3 sons to be Marines -- ICE agents tackled him while he was mowing lawn & imprisoned him. Will you consider him for parole?
NOEM: Everyone in this country illegally has an opportunity to voluntarily go home
M: He raised 3 Marines
NOEM: Everyone in this country illegally has an opportunity to voluntarily go home
M: He raised 3 Marines
December 11, 2025 at 9:49 PM
Go home and come back the right way so we can yank you out of line as you wait to swear your oath of Citizenship!
FKN
FKN
Reposted by Don Van Atta
We now learn that Fifa had a very specific "ask" in exchange for its "Peace Award" to Trump, with loads of gold trinkets, and that was dismissal of a criminal corruption case against senior Fifa officials. And Trump granted it. Another corrupt bargain, barely noticed (and ignored by US media).
December 11, 2025 at 12:59 AM
We now learn that Fifa had a very specific "ask" in exchange for its "Peace Award" to Trump, with loads of gold trinkets, and that was dismissal of a criminal corruption case against senior Fifa officials. And Trump granted it. Another corrupt bargain, barely noticed (and ignored by US media).
Reposted by Don Van Atta
IIRC, the US is not a party to the ICC courtesy Bush Jr. Trump threatening the ICC seems to show both a bad conscience and fear that he will be brought to book.
The threats by Trump against the International Criminal Court in The Hague is a clear indication that he KNOWS he and members of his administration are violating international law, committing war crimes, and vulnerable to prosecution.
Commit crimes? Threaten judges.
www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...
Commit crimes? Threaten judges.
www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...
Exclusive: US threatens new ICC sanctions unless court pledges not to prosecute Trump
President Donald Trump's administration wants the International Criminal Court to amend its founding document to ensure it does not investigate the Republican president and his top officials, a Trump ...
www.reuters.com
December 11, 2025 at 12:14 AM
IIRC, the US is not a party to the ICC courtesy Bush Jr. Trump threatening the ICC seems to show both a bad conscience and fear that he will be brought to book.
That is, no tankers carrying Russian oil — they use flags of convenience, not the Russian one.
We’ve moved from murder to hijacking by the US military.
We’ve moved from murder to hijacking by the US military.
The US seizes a Venezuelan oil tanker. But doesn't seize any Russian oil tankers.
Everything you need to know.
Everything you need to know.
December 11, 2025 at 12:06 AM
That is, no tankers carrying Russian oil — they use flags of convenience, not the Russian one.
We’ve moved from murder to hijacking by the US military.
We’ve moved from murder to hijacking by the US military.
Reposted by Don Van Atta
Anyone who sends Mike Johnson an email is now required to include in the subject line: ICYMI
December 10, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Anyone who sends Mike Johnson an email is now required to include in the subject line: ICYMI
Reposted by Don Van Atta
Given the name change to `war department' wouldn't it be consistent to rename the EPA the EDA? Environmental Destruction Agency.
December 10, 2025 at 11:28 AM
Given the name change to `war department' wouldn't it be consistent to rename the EPA the EDA? Environmental Destruction Agency.