Edward Walker
@gnuggat.bsky.social
Retired. 1993-2017 Exec Director of the Berkeley Program in Soviet/Post-Soviet Affairs, Adj Assoc Prof Political Science.
Thread. That they were struck by UKR USVs is now in the “confirmed” folder.
💥🚢 Sea Baby naval drones strike two sanctioned Russian “shadow fleet” tankers in the Black Sea.
Sea Baby naval drones operated by Ukraine’s Security Service (SSU) have struck two sanctioned tankers of Russia’s shadow fleet — KAIRO and VIRAT — in the Black Sea.
Sea Baby naval drones operated by Ukraine’s Security Service (SSU) have struck two sanctioned tankers of Russia’s shadow fleet — KAIRO and VIRAT — in the Black Sea.
November 29, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Thread. That they were struck by UKR USVs is now in the “confirmed” folder.
Thread. NB: “Despite what some think, RU maritime capabilities aren't defeated, and the RUs can respond rather effectively without putting the surface fleet at risk. How the marine insurance industry responds to potential new kinetic developments will be an important factor too.”
1/3
We are one verge of, if not already in, a new phase of the Black Sea naval war.
The earlier status quo has clearly benefited both sides but things started slipping on both shores some time ago, indicating shifting calculations, priorities and objectives.
We are one verge of, if not already in, a new phase of the Black Sea naval war.
The earlier status quo has clearly benefited both sides but things started slipping on both shores some time ago, indicating shifting calculations, priorities and objectives.
November 29, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Thread. NB: “Despite what some think, RU maritime capabilities aren't defeated, and the RUs can respond rather effectively without putting the surface fleet at risk. How the marine insurance industry responds to potential new kinetic developments will be an important factor too.”
Reposted by Edward Walker
Just hard to believe, even after everything, yet here it is in black and white.
Five-byline alert: 🚨
“.. the full scope of [Witkoff’s talks] went much further, according to people familiar .. They were privately charting a path to bring Russia’s $2 trillion economy in from the cold—with American businesses first in line .. to the dividends. 🇺🇦
www.wsj.com/world/russia...
“.. the full scope of [Witkoff’s talks] went much further, according to people familiar .. They were privately charting a path to bring Russia’s $2 trillion economy in from the cold—with American businesses first in line .. to the dividends. 🇺🇦
www.wsj.com/world/russia...
November 29, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Just hard to believe, even after everything, yet here it is in black and white.
Agree, fate of AfD in Germany, Reform in UK, and Rally in France are critical wildcards re where we’re headed down the road on UKR (and re fate of liberal democracy generally). At least as important as fate of Trumpism in the US (which has the disadvantage of having discredited itself in practice).
There's only one question for Germany: what policies will stop the inexorable rise of the AfD, which is heading for 30% in the polls. This will literally tip Europe if it continues. Germany with AfD in government won't stand up to Russia. And it also won't stick with the Euro. A storm is coming...
November 29, 2025 at 1:34 PM
Agree, fate of AfD in Germany, Reform in UK, and Rally in France are critical wildcards re where we’re headed down the road on UKR (and re fate of liberal democracy generally). At least as important as fate of Trumpism in the US (which has the disadvantage of having discredited itself in practice).
Agree, with partial exception of Kosovo (although it’s not a UN member). IMO it was a mistake for the West to recognize Kosovo independence w/o waiting (however long) for Serbia OK. IMO that decision played a role in RU provoking its war with Georgia (altho biggest factor was Bucharest NATO summit).
But principle of inadmissibility of territorial conquest has been entrenched in international law & practice since WW2. Zero cases of a UN member being forced to cede territory to another member and having it broadly recognised by the international community. Even takeovers of ex-colonies rejected
November 29, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Agree, with partial exception of Kosovo (although it’s not a UN member). IMO it was a mistake for the West to recognize Kosovo independence w/o waiting (however long) for Serbia OK. IMO that decision played a role in RU provoking its war with Georgia (altho biggest factor was Bucharest NATO summit).
Hmmm.
❗️It is reported that two tankers, Kairos and Virat, which are part of the 🇷🇺Russian "shadow fleet," exploded/were damaged in the Black Sea for unknown reasons.
November 28, 2025 at 7:47 PM
Hmmm.
Reposted by Edward Walker
The right step and an indication that Ukraine’s anticorruption institutions have reached a level of maturity absent in many European democracies. This happened thanks to Ukr civil society and ordinary people who rallied in the middle of war this summer to protect the institutions’ independence.
⚡️ Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy says Andriy Yermak has submitted his resignation as head of the Presidential Office.
November 28, 2025 at 4:06 PM
The right step and an indication that Ukraine’s anticorruption institutions have reached a level of maturity absent in many European democracies. This happened thanks to Ukr civil society and ordinary people who rallied in the middle of war this summer to protect the institutions’ independence.
Yup. And in fact more endemic: RU 154th in Transparency Intl ranking and getting worse, UKR 105th and generally improving since 2014.
At this pivotal moment for 🇺🇦 it’s important to remember that corruption in next door Russia is equally endemic - except there is no independent anti-corruption agency. Putin himself is the ultimate ring leader. Everybody within this corrupt circle is beholden onto him. A position of unrivaled power.
The power of Ukrainian democracy is a sight to behold.
And Trump wants to take millions of people from Ukrainian democracy and gift them to dictatorial Russia.
And Trump wants to take millions of people from Ukrainian democracy and gift them to dictatorial Russia.
November 28, 2025 at 5:51 PM
Yup. And in fact more endemic: RU 154th in Transparency Intl ranking and getting worse, UKR 105th and generally improving since 2014.
Yup, but AFAIK he can’t institutionalize this w/o Congressional legislation, and I suspect Putin understands that. IMO doing it under some assertion of executive authority wld nevertheless be symbolically v deleterious re war termination and the core principle of no border changes by force.
Reports that Trump favors recognizing 🇷🇺 control over Crimea and other occupied territories. This would reverse formal US policy of not recognizing efforts to change borders by force, reaffirmed by the 1st Trump administration in 2018 in the "Crimea Declaration."
2017-2021.state.gov/crimea-decla...
2017-2021.state.gov/crimea-decla...
November 28, 2025 at 5:40 PM
Yup, but AFAIK he can’t institutionalize this w/o Congressional legislation, and I suspect Putin understands that. IMO doing it under some assertion of executive authority wld nevertheless be symbolically v deleterious re war termination and the core principle of no border changes by force.
Reposted by Edward Walker
Businesses have indicated that they plan to pass the tax hike directly onto consumers, who have already been strained in recent years by surging inflation.
Putin Signs Law Raising Russia’s Value-Added Tax to 22% - The Moscow Times
President Vladimir Putin on Friday signed a sweeping tax overhaul that will raise Russia’s value-added tax to 22% from 20% next year, a move aimed at closing the fiscal gap created by soaring military...
www.themoscowtimes.com
November 28, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Businesses have indicated that they plan to pass the tax hike directly onto consumers, who have already been strained in recent years by surging inflation.
Yup, and corruption is notoriously difficult to mitigate where it’s widespread and long-standing. But also IMO it’s good for UKR that Yermak “resigned.” Am in no position to judge his culpability but for sure the optics were very bad, whereas having him out sends the right signal.
Kicking corrupt officials out is good, actually. Sure, not as good as not hiring corrupt officials to begin with. And not as good as not allowing them to become corrupt while in office. Still, kicking them out is orders of magnitude better than what most of us live with
Zelenskyy chief of staff resigns after property raid by Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies – Europe live
‘I want there to be no rumours and speculation,’ Zelenskyy says as Andriy Yermak resigns
www.theguardian.com
November 28, 2025 at 5:28 PM
Yup, and corruption is notoriously difficult to mitigate where it’s widespread and long-standing. But also IMO it’s good for UKR that Yermak “resigned.” Am in no position to judge his culpability but for sure the optics were very bad, whereas having him out sends the right signal.
Reposted by Edward Walker
The future of Russian #propaganda is messing with AI tilting it towards Russian narratives.
In fact, there are already hundreds of Russian websites that generate millions of articles a year that almost no one reads - the goal is to feed this content to AI systems
1/5
In fact, there are already hundreds of Russian websites that generate millions of articles a year that almost no one reads - the goal is to feed this content to AI systems
1/5
November 28, 2025 at 8:17 AM
The future of Russian #propaganda is messing with AI tilting it towards Russian narratives.
In fact, there are already hundreds of Russian websites that generate millions of articles a year that almost no one reads - the goal is to feed this content to AI systems
1/5
In fact, there are already hundreds of Russian websites that generate millions of articles a year that almost no one reads - the goal is to feed this content to AI systems
1/5
Reposted by Edward Walker
As law enforcement raids the house of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s closest aide, European officials are voicing support for Ukraine's anti-corruption agencies — with one even expressing relief that a figure seen a toxic among some in Europe is being investigated.
European officials welcome Ukraine’s anti-corruption searches of Zelensky's top aide
As law enforcement raids the house of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s closest aide, European officials are voicing support for Ukraine's anti-corruption agencies — with one even expressing relief that ...
kyivindependent.com
November 28, 2025 at 2:16 PM
As law enforcement raids the house of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s closest aide, European officials are voicing support for Ukraine's anti-corruption agencies — with one even expressing relief that a figure seen a toxic among some in Europe is being investigated.
Reposted by Edward Walker
Ukraine struck 39 energy infrastructure targets across Russia in 55 days including 12 power plants and 27 substations, with recent focus shifting to 15 objects in occupied territories including three power stations in Donetsk, Luhansk oblasts and Crimea, OSINT researchers Oko Hora reported.
November 28, 2025 at 12:42 PM
Ukraine struck 39 energy infrastructure targets across Russia in 55 days including 12 power plants and 27 substations, with recent focus shifting to 15 objects in occupied territories including three power stations in Donetsk, Luhansk oblasts and Crimea, OSINT researchers Oko Hora reported.
IMO many wld not consider a stable ceasefire along the current LOC, even one that didn’t recognize RU sovereignty over eg
Crimea, a “victory” for
UKR. Unfortunately, I don’t think “justice” or “victory” will be words that we’ll use to describe an eventual ceasefire. Also doubt we’ll call it stable.
Crimea, a “victory” for
UKR. Unfortunately, I don’t think “justice” or “victory” will be words that we’ll use to describe an eventual ceasefire. Also doubt we’ll call it stable.
Just? No. But a victory nonetheless.
November 27, 2025 at 8:27 PM
IMO many wld not consider a stable ceasefire along the current LOC, even one that didn’t recognize RU sovereignty over eg
Crimea, a “victory” for
UKR. Unfortunately, I don’t think “justice” or “victory” will be words that we’ll use to describe an eventual ceasefire. Also doubt we’ll call it stable.
Crimea, a “victory” for
UKR. Unfortunately, I don’t think “justice” or “victory” will be words that we’ll use to describe an eventual ceasefire. Also doubt we’ll call it stable.
Shld add it’s v hard to think of a war, esp a major war, that ended with a clearly “just” peace. WWII, eg, ended with not just hundreds of millions of people under Soviet rule/domination but huge forced population transfers. Unconditional surrender by the Axis powers didn’t => justice pure & simple.
I agree w much of this from Tom Graham, notably this: “This war will not end in a just peace... UKR can preserve… its sovereignty and independence… the war will most likely end with a ceasefire along the LOC … The imperative is to stop RU’s westward advance.” nationalinterest.org/feature/endi...
Ending the Ukraine War Means Facing Hard Choices
Ukraine may not be able to defeat Russia on the battlefield, but it can still preserve its independence.
nationalinterest.org
November 27, 2025 at 7:57 PM
Shld add it’s v hard to think of a war, esp a major war, that ended with a clearly “just” peace. WWII, eg, ended with not just hundreds of millions of people under Soviet rule/domination but huge forced population transfers. Unconditional surrender by the Axis powers didn’t => justice pure & simple.
Also agree w most of this, notably: “A plausible cease-fire would freeze terr control more or less along current lines, with provisions for UKR’s econ reconstruction, the repatriation of its citizens… entry into the EU, and long-term mil support from the West…” www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
Peace Through Bungling
By its own efforts, despite the bungles and cowardice of its friends, Ukraine may have at least bought a chance for the freedom it is due.
www.theatlantic.com
November 27, 2025 at 7:50 PM
Also agree w most of this, notably: “A plausible cease-fire would freeze terr control more or less along current lines, with provisions for UKR’s econ reconstruction, the repatriation of its citizens… entry into the EU, and long-term mil support from the West…” www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
I agree w much of this from Tom Graham, notably this: “This war will not end in a just peace... UKR can preserve… its sovereignty and independence… the war will most likely end with a ceasefire along the LOC … The imperative is to stop RU’s westward advance.” nationalinterest.org/feature/endi...
Ending the Ukraine War Means Facing Hard Choices
Ukraine may not be able to defeat Russia on the battlefield, but it can still preserve its independence.
nationalinterest.org
November 27, 2025 at 7:36 PM
I agree w much of this from Tom Graham, notably this: “This war will not end in a just peace... UKR can preserve… its sovereignty and independence… the war will most likely end with a ceasefire along the LOC … The imperative is to stop RU’s westward advance.” nationalinterest.org/feature/endi...
NB Congress wld have to approve US recognition of Crimea or any other UKR territory as Russian, and IMO that is highly unlikely. Even if Trump did it unilaterally by some kind of executive fiat, it wldn’t be binding on any future US administration.
🤡 Putin wants to discuss with US legal recognition of Crimea and Donbas as Russian territories
Putin wants to discuss with US legal recognition of Crimea and Donbas as Russian territories
Russian ruler Vladimir Putin has said that the legal recognition of Crimea and Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts as Russian territory must be one of the key issues in negotiations with the United States.
www.pravda.com.ua
November 27, 2025 at 7:20 PM
NB Congress wld have to approve US recognition of Crimea or any other UKR territory as Russian, and IMO that is highly unlikely. Even if Trump did it unilaterally by some kind of executive fiat, it wldn’t be binding on any future US administration.
Interesting listen, balanced on the trade-offs on whether UKR shld try to hold contested towns like Pokrovsk.
The fight for Pokrovsk brings Ukraine’s brutal choice into focus: commit more troops to a fading position or save the force for what comes next. Lawrence Freedman joins Ryan in Vilnius to unpack the stakes.
Listen here: pod.link/682478916/e...
Listen here: pod.link/682478916/e...
November 27, 2025 at 12:35 AM
Interesting listen, balanced on the trade-offs on whether UKR shld try to hold contested towns like Pokrovsk.
Reposted by Edward Walker
3/Merz confirmed Germany's readiness to continue supporting Ukraine "for as long as it takes," announcing an increase in aid to €11.5 billion next year. He also spoke in favor of using frozen Russian assets for these purposes.
November 26, 2025 at 6:45 PM
3/Merz confirmed Germany's readiness to continue supporting Ukraine "for as long as it takes," announcing an increase in aid to €11.5 billion next year. He also spoke in favor of using frozen Russian assets for these purposes.
Reposted by Edward Walker
⚡️IMF to provide Ukraine with $8.2 billion over 4 years under extended agreement.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reached a staff-level agreement with Ukraine to provide the embattled country with $8.2 billion over 4 years through a renewed agreement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF).
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reached a staff-level agreement with Ukraine to provide the embattled country with $8.2 billion over 4 years through a renewed agreement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF).
IMF to provide Ukraine with $8.2 billion over 4 years under extended agreement
The International Monetary Fund (IFM) has reached a staff-level agreement with Ukraine to provided the embattled country with $8.2 billion over 4 years through a renewed agreement under the Extended F...
kyivindependent.com
November 26, 2025 at 8:56 PM
⚡️IMF to provide Ukraine with $8.2 billion over 4 years under extended agreement.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reached a staff-level agreement with Ukraine to provide the embattled country with $8.2 billion over 4 years through a renewed agreement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF).
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reached a staff-level agreement with Ukraine to provide the embattled country with $8.2 billion over 4 years through a renewed agreement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF).
Pretty pretty good. The Dim-Wit plan it is.
In honour of its proponents, I suggest that the Dmitriev-Witkoff proposal should henceforth be called the Dim-Wit Plan
November 26, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Pretty pretty good. The Dim-Wit plan it is.
Reposted by Edward Walker
Three things about the Witkoff tapes:
1) It appears Western intelligence services have decided to let Witkoff (and Trump) know they have recordings of their traitorous conversations w/Russia.
2) This Ukraine "deal" was all Witkoff's idea.
3) Congressional leaders should demand he be fired.
1) It appears Western intelligence services have decided to let Witkoff (and Trump) know they have recordings of their traitorous conversations w/Russia.
2) This Ukraine "deal" was all Witkoff's idea.
3) Congressional leaders should demand he be fired.
EXCLUSIVE: US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff advised Russia on how to pitch Ukraine plans to Trump, in audio files reviewed by Bloomberg
Witkoff Advised Russia on How to Pitch Ukraine Plan to Trump
US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff, fresh from the triumph of the Gaza peace deal, held a phone call last month with a senior Kremlin official to suggest they work together on a similar plan for Ukraine — and that Vladimir Putin should raise it with Donald Trump.
bloom.bg
November 25, 2025 at 8:40 PM
Three things about the Witkoff tapes:
1) It appears Western intelligence services have decided to let Witkoff (and Trump) know they have recordings of their traitorous conversations w/Russia.
2) This Ukraine "deal" was all Witkoff's idea.
3) Congressional leaders should demand he be fired.
1) It appears Western intelligence services have decided to let Witkoff (and Trump) know they have recordings of their traitorous conversations w/Russia.
2) This Ukraine "deal" was all Witkoff's idea.
3) Congressional leaders should demand he be fired.
“RU Railways, the country's biggest commercial employer… has built up a… $50.8 billion debt pile… [RU RR] employs about 700,000 people, has suffered a fall in revenues amid a sharp slowdown in RU's war econ while debt costs have soared...”
www.reuters.com/sustainabili...
www.reuters.com/sustainabili...
www.reuters.com
November 25, 2025 at 7:38 PM
“RU Railways, the country's biggest commercial employer… has built up a… $50.8 billion debt pile… [RU RR] employs about 700,000 people, has suffered a fall in revenues amid a sharp slowdown in RU's war econ while debt costs have soared...”
www.reuters.com/sustainabili...
www.reuters.com/sustainabili...