Kevin Collins
@kwcollins.bsky.social
Co-founder, Survey 160. Loves survey and voter participation. Researcher. Democrat. YIMBY. Husband and Dad. Opinion haver and measurer. Outdoors and cooking enthusiast. He/Him
Pinned
Kevin Collins
@kwcollins.bsky.social
· Mar 24
“Forget the myths the media has created about the White House. The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.”
Thanksgiving hot take: turkey doesn't taste bad, it's a (cooking) skills issue.
November 24, 2025 at 2:23 AM
Thanksgiving hot take: turkey doesn't taste bad, it's a (cooking) skills issue.
Listening to this very good @onthemedia.bsky.social ep on the intra-Democratic Party debate on moderation, I'm struck that one difference underlying competing perspectives is in which dimensions of public opinion are thought to be exogenous and which are thought to be endogenous to communication
November 24, 2025 at 1:18 AM
Listening to this very good @onthemedia.bsky.social ep on the intra-Democratic Party debate on moderation, I'm struck that one difference underlying competing perspectives is in which dimensions of public opinion are thought to be exogenous and which are thought to be endogenous to communication
Fellow cooks what leftover-using dishes are you planning post Thanksgiving? Turkey sandwiches and stuffing waffles are two musts for us, and deciding between turkey pho and turkey ramen
November 23, 2025 at 10:04 PM
Fellow cooks what leftover-using dishes are you planning post Thanksgiving? Turkey sandwiches and stuffing waffles are two musts for us, and deciding between turkey pho and turkey ramen
Thanksgiving cooks, do you have any dishes that you’re the only one at the table who likes them but you make them anyhow?
Mine is turkey liver mousse with cranberry gelee
Mine is turkey liver mousse with cranberry gelee
November 23, 2025 at 9:18 PM
Thanksgiving cooks, do you have any dishes that you’re the only one at the table who likes them but you make them anyhow?
Mine is turkey liver mousse with cranberry gelee
Mine is turkey liver mousse with cranberry gelee
Reposted by Kevin Collins
Kavanaugh stop. Smashed the kid’s car windows and arrested him. He told them he was a U.S. citizen. The officer replied “I don’t care.”
www.oregonlive.com/portland/202...
www.oregonlive.com/portland/202...
High school senior, a U.S. citizen, detained by ICE in Oregon
The 17-year-old was held more than five hours Friday in an ICE facility, his brother said.
www.oregonlive.com
November 23, 2025 at 12:34 AM
Kavanaugh stop. Smashed the kid’s car windows and arrested him. He told them he was a U.S. citizen. The officer replied “I don’t care.”
www.oregonlive.com/portland/202...
www.oregonlive.com/portland/202...
Reposted by Kevin Collins
Utterly lawless
November 23, 2025 at 2:55 AM
Utterly lawless
Reposted by Kevin Collins
New episode of @crosstabspodcast.com just dropped featuring @kwcollins.bsky.social discussing his work at Survey 160 looking at the limits of AI in survey research + a brief discussion about popularism and its (also limited) uses. It's available already on Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/1SW1...
Intelligence Is Not Wisdom, with Kevin Collins
open.spotify.com
November 22, 2025 at 5:05 PM
New episode of @crosstabspodcast.com just dropped featuring @kwcollins.bsky.social discussing his work at Survey 160 looking at the limits of AI in survey research + a brief discussion about popularism and its (also limited) uses. It's available already on Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/1SW1...
These sourdough round boys headed into the oven for annual Thanksgiving with Friends
November 22, 2025 at 4:13 PM
These sourdough round boys headed into the oven for annual Thanksgiving with Friends
It's the start of Thanksgiving Week, and I'm going to need a lot of folks to spend more time reflect on how they ended up in this country. If your family history is like mine, your ancestors just showed up, without requiring a visa, often against the wishes of the native born inhabitants
November 22, 2025 at 2:40 PM
It's the start of Thanksgiving Week, and I'm going to need a lot of folks to spend more time reflect on how they ended up in this country. If your family history is like mine, your ancestors just showed up, without requiring a visa, often against the wishes of the native born inhabitants
Reposted by Kevin Collins
Gift link: wapo.st/43FXQfO
detailed WashPost account of how Trump and Stephen Miller sidelined serious lawyers so they could fabricate a justification for committing murder
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
White House blew past legal concerns in deadly strikes on drug boats
The Trump administration sidestepped skeptical lawyers across national security agencies as it pursued a military campaign against alleged narcotraffickers, officials say.
www.washingtonpost.com
November 22, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Gift link: wapo.st/43FXQfO
Just one thing wrong: they already have given illegal orders (resulting int the murders of > 40 people in boats in the Caribbean)
November 22, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Just one thing wrong: they already have given illegal orders (resulting int the murders of > 40 people in boats in the Caribbean)
👀
November 22, 2025 at 2:51 AM
👀
Trump won MTG's district by ~37 points in 2024, according to @the-downballot.com's calculations. So no, Dems are not going to win that seat.
November 22, 2025 at 2:30 AM
Trump won MTG's district by ~37 points in 2024, according to @the-downballot.com's calculations. So no, Dems are not going to win that seat.
MTG announced that she's retiring, not immediately but effective Jan 5, 2026. She was sworn into office on Jan 3, 2021. Is she waiting an extra few weeks so she can get a congressional pension?
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congres...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congres...
November 22, 2025 at 1:45 AM
MTG announced that she's retiring, not immediately but effective Jan 5, 2026. She was sworn into office on Jan 3, 2021. Is she waiting an extra few weeks so she can get a congressional pension?
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congres...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congres...
What does this even mean? Somalis with TPS can move to Wisconsin and be fine?
Trump just claimed on Truth Social that he’s “terminating, effective immediately, the Temporary Protected Status (TPS Program) for Somalis in Minnesota.”
November 22, 2025 at 1:41 AM
What does this even mean? Somalis with TPS can move to Wisconsin and be fine?
The TX-18 seat will be filled by a Dem in a run-off (between 2 Dems) on 1/31/26. The special election in TX-7 is 12/2/25. The special in NJ-11 is 4/16/26. If both NJ-11 (likely) and TX-7 (stretch) go Dem, then in April the chamber will be 218-216 until MTG's seat is filled
November 22, 2025 at 1:39 AM
The TX-18 seat will be filled by a Dem in a run-off (between 2 Dems) on 1/31/26. The special election in TX-7 is 12/2/25. The special in NJ-11 is 4/16/26. If both NJ-11 (likely) and TX-7 (stretch) go Dem, then in April the chamber will be 218-216 until MTG's seat is filled
I do not believe it is likely that the GOP will lose this seat. I do believe that every special election is an opportunity for new research, and that is something to be celebrated.
I guess the good news for Republicans is that the special election to fill Marjorie Taylor Greene's seat might be one they can actually win, because the district is something like R+20.
November 22, 2025 at 1:32 AM
I do not believe it is likely that the GOP will lose this seat. I do believe that every special election is an opportunity for new research, and that is something to be celebrated.
Reposted by Kevin Collins
Fully 1/2 of the change 2020-2024 was Elon Musk, 1/4 was D->R flips, 1/4 was new
From The Washington Post:
The concentration of wealth among the richest Americans is unlike anything in history — and so is billionaires’ influence in politics.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/int...
The concentration of wealth among the richest Americans is unlike anything in history — and so is billionaires’ influence in politics.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/int...
November 21, 2025 at 10:42 PM
Fully 1/2 of the change 2020-2024 was Elon Musk, 1/4 was D->R flips, 1/4 was new
Reposted by Kevin Collins
Mark Mellman, who dominated Democratic political polling for four decades and who used his prominence to speak out in defense of Israel even as elements of his party were turning against it, died on Thursday in Washington.
(@risenc.bsky.social New York Times-unlocked)
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/21/u...
(@risenc.bsky.social New York Times-unlocked)
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/21/u...
Mark Mellman, Who Helped Democrats Understand Their Voters, Dies at 70
www.nytimes.com
November 22, 2025 at 1:24 AM
Mark Mellman, who dominated Democratic political polling for four decades and who used his prominence to speak out in defense of Israel even as elements of his party were turning against it, died on Thursday in Washington.
(@risenc.bsky.social New York Times-unlocked)
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/21/u...
(@risenc.bsky.social New York Times-unlocked)
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/21/u...
Reposted by Kevin Collins
Marjorie Taylor Greene says she is resigning from Congress in January
November 22, 2025 at 1:17 AM
Marjorie Taylor Greene says she is resigning from Congress in January
If you would have told me a year ago that that, today, Donald Trump would have a warmer relationship with the newly elected, Ugandan-born Muslim mayor of New York than he did with MAGA diehard Marjorie Taylor Green, I would have called you a liar.
A good reminder that politics is unpredictable.
A good reminder that politics is unpredictable.
November 22, 2025 at 1:18 AM
If you would have told me a year ago that that, today, Donald Trump would have a warmer relationship with the newly elected, Ugandan-born Muslim mayor of New York than he did with MAGA diehard Marjorie Taylor Green, I would have called you a liar.
A good reminder that politics is unpredictable.
A good reminder that politics is unpredictable.
Whom amongst us (election survey nerds) doesn't love a special election?
BREAKING: Marjorie Taylor Greene says she's resigning from Congress — effective January 5, 2026.
November 22, 2025 at 1:16 AM
Whom amongst us (election survey nerds) doesn't love a special election?
Mark Mellman has died, may he rest in peace
November 21, 2025 at 10:51 PM
Mark Mellman has died, may he rest in peace
Reposted by Kevin Collins
Trump in a room with a very charismatic person results in like half a day of Trump agreeing with everything that person said, so this has the potential to be very, very funny.
Trump says he’s meeting with “communist” Mamdani at the White House on Friday
November 20, 2025 at 1:55 AM
Trump in a room with a very charismatic person results in like half a day of Trump agreeing with everything that person said, so this has the potential to be very, very funny.
Fact-based enterprises (journalism, survey research, academia, etc) shouldn’t be active on X, as its values are fundamentally at odds with the values of empiricism and truth. Here is the latest example
November 21, 2025 at 5:20 PM
Fact-based enterprises (journalism, survey research, academia, etc) shouldn’t be active on X, as its values are fundamentally at odds with the values of empiricism and truth. Here is the latest example