Ryan MacMullen
dogpatchryan.bsky.social
Ryan MacMullen
@dogpatchryan.bsky.social
Reposted by Ryan MacMullen
Does feel like a confidence issue for Starmer with how many labour MPs have come out already against this policy publicly.
Imagine many more in private- did someone ask if they could do the welfare bill but on 5x speed?
November 17, 2025 at 12:32 PM
The type of policy detail and thinking that is galaxies away from what this government could dream of being able to perform.
New essay out today by me and @acjsissons.bsky.social - ‘Getting Britain out of the hole: a plan for the economy’. You can read the whole thing here getting-out-of-the-hole.uk

A chart mega-thread follows 🧵
Getting Britain out of the hole
A plan for the UK economy
getting-out-of-the-hole.uk
November 17, 2025 at 9:15 AM
This is it. Changes to ILR and these proposals, it’s all trying to create a story for 2028/29.
In the interests of accountability:

These proposals are trying to set up claiming credit for the likely fall in net migration. This misunderstands the media environment and voting patterns; it will help Farage while losing votes for Labour. They are also morally objectionable and costly. (1/2)
November 17, 2025 at 9:08 AM
Reposted by Ryan MacMullen
Six weeks since the PM said Britain faced a choice between decency or division and our bad, obviously, for not understanding that he was in fact Team Division
November 17, 2025 at 8:42 AM
Reposted by Ryan MacMullen
If this 2025 policy was likely have major impacts on journeys, the boats would already have stopped in 2022-2023-2024 when it and a tougher policy were tried
November 17, 2025 at 8:09 AM
The Prime Minister said in September that we are at a fork in the road. These asylum proposals suggest we have taken the wrong turning.

The idea that recognised refugees need to be deported is wrong.

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
Asylum system in UK ‘out of control’ and dividing country, home secretary says
Shabana Mahmood to unveil new proposals modelled on Denmark’s controversial system
www.theguardian.com
November 16, 2025 at 5:51 PM
Reposted by Ryan MacMullen
Today is not the day to argue "oh so you want Reform to win then" as an argument for Labour's indefensible and inhumane anti-asylum policies. At least be honest and own that you're defending racist policies promoted with genuinely far right talking points. Don't try and pretend this is "progressive"
November 16, 2025 at 10:47 AM
Reposted by Ryan MacMullen
I despair to see the Labour Party die before my eyes. I am Irish, but am of the European social democratic family. I have always felt a close bond with UK Labour. Now, it is diving down reactionary racist rabbit holes, betraying ts basic values of social solidarity. If this is Labour, let it die.
November 16, 2025 at 11:26 AM
The idea that the government can keep having weeks like this and last until May is extraordinarily hopeful.
November 16, 2025 at 8:32 AM
Reposted by Ryan MacMullen
A year and a half after far right riots stoked by anti-immigration rhetoric, the government has moved from "process cases quickly" to "refugees will never obtain permanent status" and the opposition is arguing for mass deportations, despite immigration figures collapsing in the same time.
November 15, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Reposted by Ryan MacMullen
One thing I will say is that this immigration-bashing "strategy" is now indelibly Starmer's. It is Starmerism. Cooper was inertia personified but Mahmood is Starmer's key departmental promotion, brought in to do just this

And given that Starmer looks doomed, what future does this strategy have?
The government just keeps doubling down on the strategy that’s taken it to genuinely historical unpopularity ever harder.

The horse will be flogged until it sprints.
the video goes on and on about illegal immigration and yet the new proposal will target legal migration by confirmed refugees
November 15, 2025 at 11:03 AM
Reposted by Ryan MacMullen
“We’re not like Liz Truss”

“We’re not like Liz Truss”

“We’re not like Liz Truss”

“We’re not like Liz Truss”

“OK, we are like Liz Truss.”
November 14, 2025 at 8:21 AM
There are very few set piece events where Starmer and Reeves have the chance to reset their story between now and May, and they have just blown up the biggest one.
November 14, 2025 at 8:21 AM
Reposted by Ryan MacMullen
Here's an extraordinarily cynical take: did the government talk up the likelihood of a manifesto-breaking income tax rise in the knowledge that it would push down gilt yields in the window the OBR will use for its forecasts? Rowing back now pushes up yields but too late to enter the forecast on 26th
And there we go 10y opened up 11 basis points erasing 1/3 of the rally since October.
39 minutes until the bond markets make reeves reconsider I reckon.
November 14, 2025 at 8:13 AM
I’m sure there will be studies that identify problems, but I can’t recall a drug that has had such widely documented positive effects (this, diabetes, obesity, substance misuse).
Wegovy and Ozempic tied to dramatically lower cancer deaths
GLP-1 drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy may extend the lives of colon cancer patients, according to a major UC San Diego study. Patients on the medications had less than half the mortality rate of non-...
www.sciencedaily.com
November 13, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Reposted by Ryan MacMullen
For folks (and journalists) who want to search the Oversight Committee email texts, I made a database for searching the 20k text files:

splendorous-chaja-f79791.netlify.app
Epstein Document Search
splendorous-chaja-f79791.netlify.app
November 13, 2025 at 1:12 AM
⬇️⬇️⬇️
“The first is the size of the boost to growth that either joining the EU's customs union or single market would give. This is likely to be bigger than anything else this government could do to increase living standards.”
Y'days post: Labour’s Brexit stance is as untenable as their tax pledge mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/11/labo...
Brexit was one of the many manifestations of growing support for right wing populism, and Labour's view is that they must above all else not upset socially conservative Labour voters.
Labour’s Brexit stance is as untenable as their tax pledge
In my last post about the prospect of Labour breaking its tax pledge, I did something I don’t often do, which is indulge in some ‘I told y...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
November 12, 2025 at 9:53 AM
Nights like tonight, I wonder whether the Brexit years would have been different if we’d had Bluesky.
November 11, 2025 at 10:26 PM
Reposted by Ryan MacMullen
Brexit reduced the UK’s GDP by between 6% and 8%. That is MASSIVE. #ProjectFear #wetoldyouso

www.nber.org/papers/w3445...
November 10, 2025 at 8:11 PM
Reposted by Ryan MacMullen
So he’s saying all the tariff money we took in is gone and we won’t be able to pay it back. There was always a possibility he could lose this lawsuit and have to refund the tariff money. We didn’t prepare for that possibility? He’s running the govt like he ran his casinos.
November 11, 2025 at 11:38 AM
I would be very unsurprised if the coming Labour leadership contest didn’t have a ‘stand up to Trump’ dimension. The corollary is a different position regarding EU/Europe.
He’s merely repeating this.
November 11, 2025 at 10:15 AM
This is fascinating and should be blindingly obvious to any person who has watched the BBC over the last 15 years.
The reaction to the Panorama edit has been nothing short of hysterical. Yes the BBC has some impartiality problems. But its biggest isn't the one you think.

New piece from me.

open.substack.com/pub/goodalla...
The truth about impartiality at the BBC
And the hysteria of the current "crisis"
open.substack.com
November 11, 2025 at 8:42 AM
November 11, 2025 at 8:40 AM
We’re at the ‘maths to 18’ stage, except this time with music.
November 6, 2025 at 9:40 AM