Colm Murphy
@colmpm.bsky.social
Historian of UK and ROI politics and political economy. Senior Lecturer at QMUL and Deputy Director of Mile End Institute (https://www.qmul.ac.uk/politics/staff/profiles/murphycolm.html). Book on Labour and 'modernisation' (https://tinyurl.com/37tzatvk).
This is a useful thread on the controversy today. But away from the detail, when BBC Verify have to effectively fact-check their own Political Editor (who is *not* a columnist but an Editor at a public broadcaster!), you know there is something of a problem.
Did Rachel Reeves and the Government “mislead” people about the state of the public finances and the need for tax rises before the Budget?
I think this is a rather complex question & the answer is not black and white.
A thread…🧵1/12
I think this is a rather complex question & the answer is not black and white.
A thread…🧵1/12
December 1, 2025 at 1:53 PM
This is a useful thread on the controversy today. But away from the detail, when BBC Verify have to effectively fact-check their own Political Editor (who is *not* a columnist but an Editor at a public broadcaster!), you know there is something of a problem.
Reposted by Colm Murphy
No that's not *your* on *our behalf*. Your job is to report the story, presenting all sides fairly and then *we* call it. What Mason is saying here is fundamentally not what the bbc is for!
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
December 1, 2025 at 11:29 AM
No that's not *your* on *our behalf*. Your job is to report the story, presenting all sides fairly and then *we* call it. What Mason is saying here is fundamentally not what the bbc is for!
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Reposted by Colm Murphy
Annual shameless Xmas or other seasonal holiday gift suggestion for those interested in any of material culture, empire or British country houses. Over 500 pages & 100 illustrations. Paperback a mere £30. (Alternatively, free to download from @uclpress.bsky.social or @jstor.bsky.social ).
The East India Company at Home, 1757-1857
The East India Company at Home, 1757-1857 explores how empire in Asia shaped British country houses, their interiors and the lives of their residents. It includes chapters from researchers based in a ...
uclpress.co.uk
November 30, 2025 at 12:22 PM
Annual shameless Xmas or other seasonal holiday gift suggestion for those interested in any of material culture, empire or British country houses. Over 500 pages & 100 illustrations. Paperback a mere £30. (Alternatively, free to download from @uclpress.bsky.social or @jstor.bsky.social ).
Reposted by Colm Murphy
All this budget news, claims, counter claims is confusing, but two things of consequence.
1. We're all talking about that, not any financial benefits (or losses) of the budget.
2. Yet more focus on the very weird few weeks and politics of it all. Starting to feel dangerously like a norm.
1. We're all talking about that, not any financial benefits (or losses) of the budget.
2. Yet more focus on the very weird few weeks and politics of it all. Starting to feel dangerously like a norm.
December 1, 2025 at 1:09 PM
All this budget news, claims, counter claims is confusing, but two things of consequence.
1. We're all talking about that, not any financial benefits (or losses) of the budget.
2. Yet more focus on the very weird few weeks and politics of it all. Starting to feel dangerously like a norm.
1. We're all talking about that, not any financial benefits (or losses) of the budget.
2. Yet more focus on the very weird few weeks and politics of it all. Starting to feel dangerously like a norm.
Reposted by Colm Murphy
The OBR says that there is a 41% chance that Reeves will miss the current budget target. Attacking for excess pessimism is ridiculous.
December 1, 2025 at 11:10 AM
The OBR says that there is a 41% chance that Reeves will miss the current budget target. Attacking for excess pessimism is ridiculous.
Reposted by Colm Murphy
It was the most botched budget briefing since Truss… but this is increasingly wild. It is not an unsubstantiated “claim” that the OBR priced the productivity downgrade at £16bn in foregone revenue!
December 1, 2025 at 8:46 AM
It was the most botched budget briefing since Truss… but this is increasingly wild. It is not an unsubstantiated “claim” that the OBR priced the productivity downgrade at £16bn in foregone revenue!
This long read suggests it was No 10 that panicked over income tax.
Best thing I’ve read so far on the choices behind the Budget from @rachelsylvester.bsky.social
Economic with the truth: the mis-selling of the budget | The Observer
observer.co.uk
November 30, 2025 at 11:20 AM
This long read suggests it was No 10 that panicked over income tax.
Reposted by Colm Murphy
A short piece for Renewal on how the government's failure to present a consistent political argument is, despite its "long-termist" rhetoric, about not being orientated towards a political vision for the future.
"If the government is to have any hope of getting itself back into the driver’s seat of our political moment, of getting its future back, it must start arguing in terms of a bold and coherent vision for the future."
@mbarnfield.bsky.social on the budget and the government's empty long-termism
@mbarnfield.bsky.social on the budget and the government's empty long-termism
This Labour government lacks a future
You might be forgiven for thinking that the Labour government is focused on the future. Since before his government’s first Budget, the Prime Minister has repeatedly asked the British public to stomac...
renewal.org.uk
November 28, 2025 at 3:48 PM
A short piece for Renewal on how the government's failure to present a consistent political argument is, despite its "long-termist" rhetoric, about not being orientated towards a political vision for the future.
Reposted by Colm Murphy
The @uniofeastanglia.bsky.social via @tobysjames.bsky.social kindly recorded this event. I gave Kemi Badenoch a grade D. But then I hadn't heard her supposedly brilliant Budget response. So should that have been a D+ or a C-?
The State of Political Leadership in Britain
YouTube video by UEA Public Events and Engagement
www.youtube.com
November 27, 2025 at 3:58 PM
The @uniofeastanglia.bsky.social via @tobysjames.bsky.social kindly recorded this event. I gave Kemi Badenoch a grade D. But then I hadn't heard her supposedly brilliant Budget response. So should that have been a D+ or a C-?
"This was a survival budget, not a salvation budget."
My reaction to the Budget is now up on @uk.theconversation.com, along with Thomas Caygill, Despina Alexiadou, Alex Prior, and Paula Keaveney.
theconversation.com/will-the-bud...
My reaction to the Budget is now up on @uk.theconversation.com, along with Thomas Caygill, Despina Alexiadou, Alex Prior, and Paula Keaveney.
theconversation.com/will-the-bud...
Will the budget save Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer? Experts give their views
Experts react to the political effects of Rachel Reeves’s budget.
theconversation.com
November 27, 2025 at 5:03 PM
"This was a survival budget, not a salvation budget."
My reaction to the Budget is now up on @uk.theconversation.com, along with Thomas Caygill, Despina Alexiadou, Alex Prior, and Paula Keaveney.
theconversation.com/will-the-bud...
My reaction to the Budget is now up on @uk.theconversation.com, along with Thomas Caygill, Despina Alexiadou, Alex Prior, and Paula Keaveney.
theconversation.com/will-the-bud...
Excellent piece as usual.
This observation about constraining domestic consumption to increase investment - and the vicious politics of that - is particularly important. It is manifestly not grasped by many - including, concerningly, government ministers.
This observation about constraining domestic consumption to increase investment - and the vicious politics of that - is particularly important. It is manifestly not grasped by many - including, concerningly, government ministers.
November 27, 2025 at 8:45 AM
Excellent piece as usual.
This observation about constraining domestic consumption to increase investment - and the vicious politics of that - is particularly important. It is manifestly not grasped by many - including, concerningly, government ministers.
This observation about constraining domestic consumption to increase investment - and the vicious politics of that - is particularly important. It is manifestly not grasped by many - including, concerningly, government ministers.
Reposted by Colm Murphy
The fundamental political-economy for the government is that is objectively implementing a soft left economic policy on speed whilst being hated by lots of left leaning people because of its other policies and rhetoric.
November 26, 2025 at 5:20 PM
The fundamental political-economy for the government is that is objectively implementing a soft left economic policy on speed whilst being hated by lots of left leaning people because of its other policies and rhetoric.
Reposted by Colm Murphy
"buy a gilt guv'nor, get 'em now before the price goes up"
November 26, 2025 at 4:21 PM
"buy a gilt guv'nor, get 'em now before the price goes up"
Reposted by Colm Murphy
Big news, income tax is being charged this year.
(It has to be renewed each year or it ceases to apply. Because it's a temporary tax, introduced to fund the Napoleonic wars)
(It has to be renewed each year or it ceases to apply. Because it's a temporary tax, introduced to fund the Napoleonic wars)
November 26, 2025 at 1:42 PM
Big news, income tax is being charged this year.
(It has to be renewed each year or it ceases to apply. Because it's a temporary tax, introduced to fund the Napoleonic wars)
(It has to be renewed each year or it ceases to apply. Because it's a temporary tax, introduced to fund the Napoleonic wars)
Reposted by Colm Murphy
New PIP claims are starting to decline
November 26, 2025 at 12:40 PM
New PIP claims are starting to decline
Reposted by Colm Murphy
Scrapping the two-child limit in full is a monumental decision. Well done to all involved in the Child Poverty Strategy, and everyone who has made the case against the policy.
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
November 26, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Scrapping the two-child limit in full is a monumental decision. Well done to all involved in the Child Poverty Strategy, and everyone who has made the case against the policy.
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
One thing I am slightly surprised by is how small the downgrade is, given the briefing and given the context.
November 26, 2025 at 1:26 PM
One thing I am slightly surprised by is how small the downgrade is, given the briefing and given the context.
The SW1 argument will probably be whether the government has broken its manifesto with the threshold freeze.
The wording: "Labour will not increase taxes on working people, which is why we will not increase National Insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of Income Tax, or VAT."
The wording: "Labour will not increase taxes on working people, which is why we will not increase National Insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of Income Tax, or VAT."
November 26, 2025 at 1:25 PM
The SW1 argument will probably be whether the government has broken its manifesto with the threshold freeze.
The wording: "Labour will not increase taxes on working people, which is why we will not increase National Insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of Income Tax, or VAT."
The wording: "Labour will not increase taxes on working people, which is why we will not increase National Insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of Income Tax, or VAT."
Reposted by Colm Murphy
Was always VERY sceptical about this: dropping the idea of an income tax rise was a political, not an economic decision.
Minor point. But this is the OBR saying that the briefing about income tax being dropped because of improved forecasts is bollocks.
November 26, 2025 at 1:19 PM
Was always VERY sceptical about this: dropping the idea of an income tax rise was a political, not an economic decision.
Reposted by Colm Murphy
Cash ISA limit cut to £12,000 as expected - though only for under 65s! A new bias in the tax system towards pensioners is introduced....
November 26, 2025 at 12:54 PM
Cash ISA limit cut to £12,000 as expected - though only for under 65s! A new bias in the tax system towards pensioners is introduced....
Reposted by Colm Murphy
Removing the two-child benefit cap will cost £3bn and the average benefit to families will be £5,450 a year.
November 26, 2025 at 12:18 PM
Removing the two-child benefit cap will cost £3bn and the average benefit to families will be £5,450 a year.
Reposted by Colm Murphy
🚨 Applications are now open for the 2026–27 Koch History Centre Fellowships at Oxford!
We are seeking 12 historians (9 junior, 3 senior) for a one-year fellowship at Wadham College & the Faculty of History.
This year’s theme: “Scarcity and Abundance”
Deadline: 17 Dec 2025
Please share widely!
We are seeking 12 historians (9 junior, 3 senior) for a one-year fellowship at Wadham College & the Faculty of History.
This year’s theme: “Scarcity and Abundance”
Deadline: 17 Dec 2025
Please share widely!
November 26, 2025 at 11:57 AM
🚨 Applications are now open for the 2026–27 Koch History Centre Fellowships at Oxford!
We are seeking 12 historians (9 junior, 3 senior) for a one-year fellowship at Wadham College & the Faculty of History.
This year’s theme: “Scarcity and Abundance”
Deadline: 17 Dec 2025
Please share widely!
We are seeking 12 historians (9 junior, 3 senior) for a one-year fellowship at Wadham College & the Faculty of History.
This year’s theme: “Scarcity and Abundance”
Deadline: 17 Dec 2025
Please share widely!
Reposted by Colm Murphy
Reading the OBR report before the chancellor starts. An illicit thrill.
November 26, 2025 at 11:59 AM
Reading the OBR report before the chancellor starts. An illicit thrill.
Reposted by Colm Murphy
The Office of Budget "Responsibility" just accidentally published their analysis of the whole Budget, half an hour before Reeves is due to start talking.
Nice one, lads.
obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...
Nice one, lads.
obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...
obr.uk
November 26, 2025 at 11:57 AM
The Office of Budget "Responsibility" just accidentally published their analysis of the whole Budget, half an hour before Reeves is due to start talking.
Nice one, lads.
obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...
Nice one, lads.
obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...
Reposted by Colm Murphy
When I arrive at the party
November 19, 2025 at 5:53 AM
When I arrive at the party