Menzie Chinn
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mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn
@mchinn.bsky.social
5.6K followers 730 following 1.2K posts

Professor of Public Affairs and Economics, University of Wisconsin, and Blogger at Econbrowser. All views are my own.

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Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, co-editor of the Journal of International Money and Finance, and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research International Finance and Macroeconomics Program. .. more

Economics 93%
Business 4%
Posts Replies Media Videos

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 23h
Instantaneous PCE defl inflation per @janeeckhout.bsky.social (a=4, T=12) above 2%, and nowcasted rising in December #EconSky @clevelandfed.bsky.social
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 1d
Trump's war on the Big Mac: CPI growth relative to 2025M01 in headline, CPI-ex shelter, CPI-electricity, "groceries"
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 1d
@atlantafed.org , CBO, WSJ #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 1d
Tariff pass-through: @heritagefdn.bsky.social vs CBO , Amiti et al./NYFED , Gopinath-Neiman (see also Cavallo et al./HBS, Minton,Smale/FRB, etc., and just about every other mainstream economist) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Menzie Chinn

minneapolisfed.bsky.social
Minneapolis Fed @minneapolisfed.bsky.social · 2d
New report: Wide array of U.S. #tariffs is inflicting economic pain equivalent to a 21% across-the-board tariff. Improved "Trade Restrictiveness Index" from our Mike Waugh is more accurate & higher than other "average tariff" measures. https://bit.ly/4kpmOqK
New measure: Tariffs twice as restrictive as popular estimates, New research brief

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 2d
Business cycle indicators with benchmarked employment data #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Menzie Chinn, Iikka Korhonen, Thomas Masterson , and 1 more

carlquintanilla.bsky.social
Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 3d
Today’s CBO report says US consumers pay 95% of tariffs. 🤡

@brendanvduke.bsky.social
www.cbo.gov/system/files...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 3d
Benchmark revision as expected, subsequent path close to expected (except for January, which is 1.5 MAEs above consensus); BLS private and ADP diverge; #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Menzie Chinn, Aaron Sojourner

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 3d
"If the data revisions play out as expected tomorrow, the United States may have just had a year with essentially no net job growth, yet without being in a recession."

stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/a-year-wit...
A Year With No Jobs—But No Recession
Revisions in the January employment report may reveal that job growth stalled over the past year, even without a recession.
stayathomemacro.substack.com

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 3d
Update: Benchmark revision will likely look bad; revisions to post-March data could also be bad (implied by GS) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 4d
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
If at 5pm ET, Trump Starts Posting about “Fake” Employment Numbers, Be Prepared | Econbrowser
econbrowser.com

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 4d
2025 announced layoffs: AI or DOGE? #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 5d
Truflation says y/y inflation is 0.7% as of today...'nuff said #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 6d
Mag 7 forward p/e ratio, capitalization, and investment plans for 2026 #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 6d
@challengergray.bsky.social layoff announcements, labor force, and recessions #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 7d
Nowcasting January private NFP using ADP data: +63K vs. Bloomberg +70K #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 7d
(Nominal) net cash farm income ex-govt support projected to decline 7.5%; +2.5% incl govt support ($44.3 bn in 2026) @usdagov.bsky.social #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 7d
Trade balance improvement less marked when stripping out gold #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 8d
Do announced layoffs Granger cause actual layoffs (at quarterly basis)? Ans: Yes! #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 8d
Jeff Frankel on an American Caligula #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Guest Contribution: “Caligula Reincarnated” | Econbrowser
econbrowser.com

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 8d
How fast is Chinese GDP growing in Q3? 5% vs. 4% (@bofit.suomenpankki.fi ) or less ( @rhg.com ) or near trend ( SF Fed CCAT for Q2)? (and what is trend anyways?) @johnfernald.bsky.social Mark Spiegel #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Christian Odendahl, Menzie Chinn, Steven S. Smith , and 2 more

justinwolfers.bsky.social
Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 8d
This chart seems to suggest a striking pattern: Kevin Warsh's speeches are consistently hawkish, except when Trump is President and about to appoint a new Fed Chair.
www.economist.com/finance-and-...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 9d
I guess this is a "risk-off" period... #EconSky

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 9d
0.93% y/y CPI inflation as of today. Truflation says so... @heritagefdn.bsky.social chief economist #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 10d
On @scholars.org ' "No Jargon" podcast, talking tariffs and policy uncertainty:
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 10d
ADP private NFP at a crawl, 2025 growth rev'd down, manufacturing declining faster than est'd before, but small firm empl picks up #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Menzie Chinn, Michael Kevane

scholars.org
Scholars Strategy Network @scholars.org · 11d
📦💸 What does it look like when tariffs hit home?

In this No Jargon episode, economist @mchinn.bsky.social (@uwmadison.bsky.social) breaks down how rising tariffs are shaping prices, businesses, and household budgets a year into President Trump’s second term.

🎧 Listen: scholars.org/podcast/when...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 11d
Employment indicators flattish, output and consumption strongly up; Bloomberg consensus for January ADP private NFP +48K #EconSky @philadelphiafed.bsky.social @nber.org BCDC ADP
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 12d
Warsh on Fed -- ambiguous implications for long rates #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 12d
Proxy measure for aggregate demand, "Core GDP" either growing at 2.5% or 3.4% #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...